List Mgmt. 2020: Death Riding Melbourne [NMFC owns MFC's 1st (#9) & 4th (#64) 2020 picks] - Keep Your Eye on the Red and the Blue

[giantroo]

Thanks for that Giantroo......further to that,.....does that mean they go down a pick or two....apologies I've taken no notice of the points system....

Yes.

Each pick has a points value. Pick 1 (3000), etc . For Pick 1 you must have the full allocation of points (3000) to keep the pick even though you may have enough to cover pick 2 (2,517).

From there, you just minus the point deficit (265) and you get the table I've posted.

 

[Passmore]

We had the choice, option A or B.

OPTION A. C Serong. (exactly what we need)

OPTION B. (mystery)

We gave up exactly what we need for we dont know what we will get.

Personally, I would have taken Serong, because he's the sort of player we need anyway....

At the time we trade a 2019 draft mystery for a 2020 draft mystery plus add ons.

 

[king of the road]

We had the choice, option A or B.

OPTION A. C Serong. (exactly what we need)

OPTION B. (mystery)

We gave up exactly what we need for we dont know what we will get.

Personally, I would have taken Serong, because he's the sort of player we need anyway....

Yeah. Before the draft, it was a mystery as to whether he’d be available at our pick. Just as it is now with players in this draft who we might want at pick 8-10.

It’s not a mystery in hindsight.

Your post makes no sense.

 

[king of the road]

We had the choice, option A or B.

OPTION A. C Serong. (exactly what we need)

OPTION B. (mystery)

We gave up exactly what we need for we dont know what we will get.

Personally, I would have taken Serong, because he's the sort of player we need anyway....

Also, all your posts about us going down the draft order because of tied pics making out pick worse? Irrelevant.

We know all the player that are tied and the fact that we can’t get them. Have known for years. We could never pick them anyway.

We also know all those that aren’t tied to clubs. We are always picking from that pool, regardless of tied picks prior to ours. That’s what we would have rated the draft on years ago. It does not diminish the pool of players available to us if tied picks come prior. Our pick does not get worse because of that.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

We had the choice, option A or B.

OPTION A. C Serong. (exactly what we need)

OPTION B. (mystery)

We gave up exactly what we need for we dont know what we will get.

Personally, I would have taken Serong, because he's the sort of player we need anyway....

No, wrong again.

OPTION A. (mystery)

At the time, we didn't know the actual selections. You only know where Serong was taken because we now observe the facts with hindsight.

This is such a simple concept that I'm embarrassed to have to explain it yet again.

 

[Johnny99]

I think clubs have a pretty good idea of who is going to be there, especially in the top 10.

That's why they spend the whole year preparing for the draft and talking to other recruiters.

When NM considered trading their first. Step 1. They considered who they are likely to get at 8 (they looked at who was likely to go in that 6 to 10 range) Step 2. They made a decision that they were better off to give up that selection (one of those players), for a pick in the future.


I dont think Serong was ever considered Top 5. But clubs would have known he would be around the 6 to 10 mark.

I think the club had a good idea Serong was a good chance to be available at pick 8, but chose to trade the pick away.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

I think clubs have a pretty good idea of who is going to be there, especially in the top 10.

That's why they spend the whole year preparing for the draft and talking to other recruiters.

When NM considered trading their first. Step 1. They considered who they are likely to get at 8 (they looked at who was likely to go in that 6 to 10 range) Step 2. They made a decision that they were better off to give up that selection (one of those players), for a pick in the future.


I dont think Serong was ever considered Top 5. But clubs would have known he would be around the 6 to 10 mark.

I think the club had a good idea Serong was a good chance to be available at pick 8, but chose to trade the pick away.

Speculation.

A couple of years earlier we assumed LDU wouldn't last to 4, but Dow, Brayshaw or Cerra might be available at that pick.

It's a nonsense to zero in on a player now, just because he's going well, and claim that we "gave him up".

 

[Johnny99]

Speculation.

A couple of years earlier we assumed LDU wouldn't last to 4, but Dow, Brayshaw or Cerra might be available at that pick.

It's a nonsense to zero in on a player now, just because he's going well, and claim that we "gave him up".

Question....Was it likely NM were giving up Matt Rowell with our pick 8 ?

Answer....No. Because Rowell was likely to go top 3 and not be around at pick 8.


Question....Was it likely NM were giving up C. Serong at pick 8 ?

Answer....Yes, because Serong was rated a good chance to go at that pick. And that is probably why Freo traded up to get that pick.


We traded a high probability of having Serong in our team now (potential Rising Star winner), for a future pick.

 

[1975]

Question....Was it likely NM were giving up Matt Rowell with our pick 8 ?

Answer....No. Because Rowell was likely to go top 3 and not be around at pick 8.


Question....Was it likely NM were giving up C. Serong at pick 8 ?

Answer....Yes, because Serong was rated a good chance to go at that pick. And that is probably why Freo traded up to get that pick.


We traded a high probability of having Serong in our team now (potential Rising Star winner), for a future pick.

We actually don’t know that it was considered to be a high probability but for the sake of moving on let’s agree for the moment that it was.
Could we now wait and see how the next part of the scenario actually plays out before we call it a bust.

 

[bengrina]

gees Johnny I thought I was pessimistic. Do you wake up in the middle of the night sweating wondering why we picked hansen instead of selwood in the 2006 national draft?

 

[LuvtheKangas]

We actually don’t know that it was considered to be a high probability but for the sake of moving on let’s agree for the moment that it was.
Could we now wait and see how the next part of the scenario actually plays out before we call it a bust.

Good call. Let's concede his bogus argument because even if true, it's only half of the story at best.

 

[Passmore]

Let’s give it some time and see how it all pans out.

 

[Ohhh Errol]

It was a trade that increased overall access to top 30 draft picks. Simple as that.

We can't flip the list with one first round, one second round per season.

They had to try something to improve the overall draft hand.

Petracca rips that humoungous hamstring off the bone and the people complaining now are lining up to rim Rawlings.

I would've liked to have won the 2020 bigfooty bragging rights as much as the next despo on here, dees ladder position does somewhat murk the waters, but as long as they miss finals or get ko'ed early, we've still fared pretty well... just wasn't the body blow we hoped to deliver as we entered the season.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Question....Was it likely NM were giving up Matt Rowell with our pick 8 ?

Answer....No. Because Rowell was likely to go top 3 and not be around at pick 8.

I'd assume the club looked at their list of certainties in the top 6 and then assumed that trading out was a better option.

Whether or not this was correct, still remains to be seen.

 

[King Corey]

Question....Was it likely NM were giving up Matt Rowell with our pick 8 ?

Answer....No. Because Rowell was likely to go top 3 and not be around at pick 8.


Question....Was it likely NM were giving up C. Serong at pick 8 ?

Answer....Yes, because Serong was rated a good chance to go at that pick. And that is probably why Freo traded up to get that pick.


We traded a high probability of having Serong in our team now (potential Rising Star winner), for a future pick.

I get where you're coming from mate but we just have to hold on and see.

It's going to be:

Caleb Serong

vs

2020 #1st Rounder
Flynn Perez
2020 #2nd Rounder

Now if you really don't want to torture yourself, hope that hawthorn don't pull an ace with our pick #21 that we handed over for the Jack Mahoney pick...

 

[The acurate one]

I get where you're coming from mate but we just have to hold on and see.

It's going to be:

Caleb Serong

vs

2020 #1st Rounder
Flynn Perez
2020 #2nd Rounder

Now if you really don't want to torture yourself, hope that hawthorn don't pull an ace with our pick #21 that we handed over for the Jack Mahoney pick...

Exactly right, we're bringing in three fingers crossed best 22 footballers. Is what we needed to do. Also I'm not sold that we didn't expect to see the Dees rise up the ladder a bit.
had there been no COVID, I'd assume due to seeding that the Dees would have played for the second time sides like us. So COVID has probably cost the Dees a few more wins.

 

[King Corey]

Exactly right, we're bringing in three fingers crossed best 22 footballers. Is what we needed to do. Also I'm not sold that we didn't expect to see the Dees rise up the ladder a bit.
had there been no COVID, I'd assume due to seeding that the Dees would have played for the second time sides like us. So COVID has probably cost the Dees a few more wins.

It was from posting above that the real gremlin revealed itself in the Hawthorn trade.

Before 2020 bids are factored in we've slid their pick up 14 places by swapping 2019<>2020 2nd rounders plus we threw them a 2019 3rd rounder as well.

I think that should be the trade that gets the more discerning emos concerned.

That trade could feasibly be:

Jack Mahoney

vs

Jackson Callow

 

[Johnny99]

gees Johnny I thought I was pessimistic. Do you wake up in the middle of the night sweating wondering why we picked hansen instead of selwood in the 2006 national draft?

Yes........Yes I do.

 

[The acurate one]

It was from posting above that the real gremlin revealed itself in the Hawthorn trade.

Before 2020 bids are factored in we've slid their pick up 14 places by swapping 2019<>2020 2nd rounders plus we threw them a 2019 3rd rounder as well.

I think that should be the trade that gets the more discerning emos concerned.

That trade could feasibly be:

Jack Mahoney

vs

Jackson Callow

I believe we 've nominated jack as a our up and comer for the awards. So that tells you we really rate him.

 

[King Corey]

I believe we 've nominated jack as a our up and comer for the awards. So that tells you we really rate him.

Wasn't exactly a Melbourne Cup field of options but point taken nonetheless.

 

[TennisPlayerAndy]

Wasn't exactly a Melbourne Cup field of options but point taken nonetheless.

Wasn’t even a barrier trial in Robinvale field...

 

[Sonny Bonds]

Looking so forward to the melts in this thread Saturday afternoon.

After GWS smash the Saints and the Dees belt Essendon. Dogs will also go down to Freo.

 

[LuvtheKangas]

Looking so forward to the melts in this thread Saturday afternoon.

After GWS smash the Saints and the Dees belt Essendon. Dogs will also go down to Freo.

Is that what it will take for Melbourne to make the 8?

Cool, I've just had a bet on the treble with Melbourne winning by 25+ points (odds of 17.45 on TAB).

FYI, my winning strike rate for footy multiples is under 10%.

 

[Rooboy 96]

I get where you're coming from mate but we just have to hold on and see.

It's going to be:

Caleb Serong

vs

2020 #1st Rounder
Flynn Perez
2020 #2nd Rounder

Now if you really don't want to torture yourself, hope that hawthorn don't pull an ace with our pick #21 that we handed over for the Jack Mahoney pick...

yes, that is the trade that bewilders me more, why did we do that trade with Hawthorn. The more I look at it, the 3 we got last year were the 3 we wanted from the word go.

 

[Sonny Bonds]

Is that what it will take for Melbourne to make the 8?

See 2017. What was it, 0.2%.

Good luck with your teams pick. No trolling from me here, just a bit of banter.

 

[SpiderBurton22]

Question....Was it likely NM were giving up Matt Rowell with our pick 8 ?

Answer....No. Because Rowell was likely to go top 3 and not be around at pick 8.


Question....Was it likely NM were giving up C. Serong at pick 8 ?

Answer....Yes, because Serong was rated a good chance to go at that pick. And that is probably why Freo traded up to get that pick.


We traded a high probability of having Serong in our team now (potential Rising Star winner), for a future pick.

Watch tonight's game?

That Perez kid goes alright. Exactly what we need off half back. Who knows, he may even end up better than Serong.