Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[Crows I Am]

If we are only making 4 selections what are we doing with 40?

Are we making efforts to bundle it or move into next year's draft?

I can see us trading one of of picks in the 20s into next year's draft. Or packaging them both to move higher up.

 

[Deaneus!]

Question: Is pick #40 a problem for the Crows - should we be getting rid of it?

The Rule: As far as I am aware, once a club passes on a selection they are not allowed to re-enter the draft.

The Assumptions:

• Adelaide's "Plan A" is to make 4 selections in the ND (1/9/22/23), grabbing Borlase & Newchurch as Cat B rookies.
• Adelaide would be prepared to (reluctantly) match a bid on Borlase after pick 23, but not Newchurch.
• Any bids on Borlase are likely to come after pick 40.

The Problem:
If Adelaide still owns pick 40 by the time it's called, they will need to make a choice - they could pass, or they could grab Borlase. They don't want to select Borlase in the ND, unless forced to by a bid from another club. If they pass, then they would be out of the draft, and unable to match any subsequent bids - at the point in the draft where bids are most likely.

If we trade pick 40, then the problem goes away. Pick 56 should be sufficient for matching any late bids, and few players are expected to be taken after that point, so the risk of passing and losing him is minimised.

This is good analysis. Does it entail that we should then bundle 40 with say 9 for pick 5?



no seriously, it’s an interesting dilemma, do list sizes preclude us from taking someone at 40? Or is it merely our stated position? I wonder if someone desirable enough somehow falls to 40, whether we’d be flexible enough in our list planning

 

[Vader]

Could be possible that what they're saying publicly is not exactly what they'll do Draft night?

I can see them doing a pick swap with 22/23, so that 40 is our 4th pick - but I don't see them willingly making 5 selections in the ND.

 

[Thetrader15]

Question: Is pick #40 a problem for the Crows - should we be getting rid of it?

The Rule: As far as I am aware, once a club passes on a selection they are not allowed to re-enter the draft.

The Assumptions:

• Adelaide's "Plan A" is to make 4 selections in the ND (1/9/22/23), grabbing Borlase & Newchurch as Cat B rookies.
• Adelaide would be prepared to (reluctantly) match a bid on Borlase after pick 23, but not Newchurch.
• Any bids on Borlase are likely to come after pick 40.

The Problem:
If Adelaide still owns pick 40 by the time it's called, they will need to make a choice - they could pass, or they could grab Borlase. They don't want to select Borlase in the ND, unless forced to by a bid from another club. If they pass, then they would be out of the draft, and unable to match any subsequent bids - at the point in the draft where bids are most likely.

If we trade pick 40, then the problem goes away. Pick 56 should be sufficient for matching any late bids, and few players are expected to be taken after that point, so the risk of passing and losing him is minimised.

I don't know if it's right or not (I'm sure the AFL will make a rule on the spot if there's no rule), but in 2014, GWS passed at pick 80, then selected Finlayson at 85. Now, he was an academy player so that may be different to FS and matching bids?

Same for Swans, passed at 57 and selected Davis at 70. Again, Northern Academy, so who knows.

 

[Vader]

no seriously, it’s an interesting dilemma, do list sizes preclude us from taking someone at 40? Or is it merely our stated position? I wonder if someone desirable enough somehow falls to 40, whether we’d be flexible enough in our list planning

We do have that flexibility - 4 selections (plus Hately) would leave us with 36 on the senior list, which is the AFL's mandatory minimum. We could make as many as 6 selections... we could, but we won't.

 

[slice]

Don’t we just downgrade 40 at that point for the best offer we can get? Ideally convert it into a 2021 pick

 

[Vader]

I don't know if it's right or not (I'm sure the AFL will make a rule on the spot if there's no rule), but in 2014, GWS passed at pick 80, then selected Finlayson at 85. Now, he was an academy player so that may be different to FS and matching bids?

Same for Swans, passed at 57 and selected Davis at 70. Again, Northern Academy, so who knows.

It used to be that Academy selections & rookie upgrades were made with the clubs' last selection in the ND, regardless of whether or not they had passed earlier in the draft. Now they're added straight to the list, without going through the draft.

 

[Vader]

Don’t we just downgrade 40 at that point for the best offer we can get? Ideally convert it into a 2021 pick

That's my point - we need to trade it, ideally into the 2021 draft. If we still own it when the number is called, then we face an unpleasant dilemma.

 

[hey shorty]

and watch south aussie footballers with rose coloured glasses on.

Not at all.

I wouldn't pick Thilthorpe at 1, but there's significant reasons not to pick any of the 3 being discussed.

 

[hey shorty]

at least mcdonald doesnt have dodgy groins. I dont want a daniher v2 thanks.

You're a doctor are you ?? Joel Selwood has a shocking knee, Max King

12

Max King

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23

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202cm

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100kg

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7.3

2star

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4.7

2star

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2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

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0.7

3star

G

1.4

5star

D

7.3

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

2.6

2star

M

2.7

3star

T

0.7

1star

G

1.4

5star

D

8.0

2star

K

5.2

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

0.6

3star

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1.4

5star

off an ACL, Hollands off an ACL.

You're an extremely petty and narrow poster.

 

[WeedsMullet84]

I can see them doing a pick swap with 22/23, so that 40 is our 4th pick - but I don't see them willingly making 5 selections in the ND.

No, my young padawan, it's likely that Pick 40 will be used in conjunction with one of our picks in the 20's to move either into the 2021 draft or into the end of the 1st round this year.

Just keeping in mind that any NGA/FS matched after the 1st round automatically receives a 197 point discount.

We have 56, 66 at the back end of the draft, but after matching FS/NGA bids from other clubs these are likely to dramatically improve on Draft night (would LOVE for someone to do the analysis on this). My guess is that our 56 & 66 would actually drop to 50 & 60 (or better) by the time a bid did come through for Borlase.

If this is the case then we would have approx 616 points as a buffer against any Borlase bid, which would cover us for any bid after Pick 31

Then we'd take Newchurch as a rookie, if possible.

My guess is that it's just posturing from the Crows saying we'll only take 4. If we did do the above, and we had enough points to match a bid for Newchurch at the end of the draft, then we'll take him, i think we're just hoping he gets to the rookie draft for other admin reasons??

 

[Vader]

No, my young padawan, it's likely that Pick 40 will be used in conjunction with one of our picks in the 20's to move either into the 2021 draft or into the end of the 1st round this year.

Just keeping in mind that any NGA/FS matched after the 1st round automatically receives a 197 point discount.

We have 56, 66 at the back end of the draft, but after matching FS/NGA bids from other clubs these are likely to dramatically improve on Draft night (would LOVE for someone to do the analysis on this). My guess is that our 56 & 66 would actually drop to 50 & 60 (or better) by the time a bid did come through for Borlase.

If this is the case then we would have approx 616 points as a buffer against any Borlase bid, which would cover us for any bid after Pick 31

Then we'd take Newchurch as a rookie, if possible.

My guess is that it's just posturing from the Crows saying we'll only take 4. If we did do the above, and we had enough points to match a bid for Newchurch at the end of the draft, then we'll take him, i think we're just hoping he gets to the rookie draft for other admin reasons??

I'm well aware of the bidding process, and the fixed discount after the 1st round. That's why I said that pick 56 would provide sufficient points for matching any later bids.

I don't think they're posturing at all. I am quite certain that they are only planning on making 4 selections... plus Borlase (reluctantly) if another club bids.

I think clubs will be reluctant to do too many pick swaps this year - partly because there will be so few selections used, and partly because the 2021 draft is (reportedly) so much stronger. We may end up being stuck with the picks we currently have.

 

[Josh Jenkins #1Fan]

if he wasnt south australian you'd be like, riley who?

If it wasn’t for 5 good games everyone would be saying Logan who?

 

[WeedsMullet84]

I'm well aware of the bidding process, and the fixed discount after the 1st round. That's why I said that pick 56 would provide sufficient points for matching any later bids.

I don't think they're posturing at all. I am quite certain that they are only planning on making 4 selections... plus Borlase (reluctantly) if another club bids.

I think clubs will be reluctant to do too many pick swaps this year - partly because there will be so few selections used, and partly because the 2021 draft is (reportedly) so much stronger. We may end up being stuck with the picks we currently have.

You seem to routinely go off at other posters for.......well, basically anything, and yet you use language such as 'I am quite certain that they are only planning on making 4 selections...'

I don't think you have a clue what they're going to do other than going off the morsels of info that MIGHT have been leaked to media, and where that information might be accurate, or it might be serving another purpose.

 

[pext]

AFL 2020: Adelaide Crows eyeing Brisbane Lions defender Mitch Hinge

amp.theage.com.au

Mitch Hinge from the lions may be on his way to us as a delisted free agent.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Kaine Baldwin- Friday November 20

Unlucky young draft prospect Kaine Baldwin joined Huddo to discuss his knee recovery and how he's tracking along towards the draft

player.whooshkaa.com

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Question: Is pick #40 a problem for the Crows - should we be getting rid of it?

The Rule: As far as I am aware, once a club passes on a selection they are not allowed to re-enter the draft.

The Assumptions:

• Adelaide's "Plan A" is to make 4 selections in the ND (1/9/22/23), grabbing Borlase & Newchurch as Cat B rookies.
• Adelaide would be prepared to (reluctantly) match a bid on Borlase after pick 23, but not Newchurch.
• Any bids on Borlase are likely to come after pick 40.

The Problem:
If Adelaide still owns pick 40 by the time it's called, they will need to make a choice - they could pass, or they could grab Borlase. They don't want to select Borlase in the ND, unless forced to by a bid from another club. If they pass, then they would be out of the draft, and unable to match any subsequent bids - at the point in the draft where bids are most likely.

If we trade pick 40, then the problem goes away. Pick 56 should be sufficient for matching any late bids, and few players are expected to be taken after that point, so the risk of passing and losing him is minimised.

They’d be sounding clubs now letting them know that pick 40 might be up for grabs on night depending on how it unfolds and then they will be on the phone to interested clubs on the night

 

[Bay Pie]

Hey Crows fans,

Just curious if you guys think your club would be interested in moving your 2nd first rounder?

Pies really want to move our 2021 1st round pick and IF your 2nd first rounder slides to Pick 12, due to bids on JUH, Braeden Campbell and Lachie Jones, would your club be keen to a pick swap? Perhaps include a later 2020 pick/s that you aren't going to use that will help us with a possible NGA bid if required and we'd throw back a later round 2021 pick.

I've had a look through some proposed names for the top 20 of the 2021 draft and there's quite a few SA boys in the top 10, which may be of interest, if you really want to get some local lads in.

 

[hey shorty]

AFL 2020: Adelaide Crows eyeing Brisbane Lions defender Mitch Hinge

amp.theage.com.au

Mitch Hinge from the lions may be on his way to us as a delisted free agent.

Don't think we need another defender, but if he's for free we may as well look.

 

[Hodgy]

Don't think we need another defender, but if he's for free we may as well look.

It’s not about costs really, it’s more about list spots and keeping some room for mid season drafts next year. Would probably indicate we aren’t planning to keep Kelly long term.

 

[pext]

Hey Crows fans,

Just curious if you guys think your club would be interested in moving your 2nd first rounder?

Pies really want to move our 2021 1st round pick and IF your 2nd first rounder slides to Pick 12, due to bids on JUH, Braeden Campbell and Lachie Jones, would your club be keen to a pick swap? Perhaps include a later 2020 pick/s that you aren't going to use that will help us with a possible NGA bid if required and we'd throw back a later round 2021 pick.

I've had a look through some proposed names for the top 20 of the 2021 draft and there's quite a few SA boys in the top 10, which may be of interest, if you really want to get some local lads in.

I’m certain there would have been discussions between our clubs. Might be one for draft night trading though, as both clubs will want to see how far pick 9 slides and who is still available before pulling the trigger.

 

[Bearded Clam]

Probably when the AFL becomes unprofitable.

They'll hold onto Gold Coast for dear life until then, after all, it's the 8th most populated city/region in Australia, and the likely next one to get to 1 million population, so they'll realistically do everything in their power to force it to work. I'm expecting Newcastle to get an AFL team in the not too distant future as well, again, following population growth and trying to hit areas which will end up 1mil+ populations in the next 20-30 years.

Not sure where 1 million people are gonna fit on the gold coast... not much land left thats worth developing..

Unless the government/GCCC allow the Cane fields between stapylton/jacobs well/pimpama to be rezoned from agricultural to residential land.. even then that whole area is extremely flood prone.. goes under once every summer.

 

[Betts are off]

AFL 2020: Adelaide Crows eyeing Brisbane Lions defender Mitch Hinge

amp.theage.com.au

Mitch Hinge from the lions may be on his way to us as a delisted free agent.

I’ve heard this kids name called a few times. But have never actually seen him play.

Seems like a low risk low reward type pickup tbh

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I’ve heard this kids name called a few times. But have never actually seen him play.

Seems like a low risk low reward type pickup tbh

Former Crows player John Hinge

John Hinge

Age

37

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187cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Mid

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Last 5

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11.0

3star

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3.0

1star

HB

8.0

5star

M

1.0

1star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

3.0

1star

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8.0

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1.0

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2.0

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's young brother



Western Stand Warrior ....FYI

 

[Golumless]

I live 30 mins from Newcastle, and would have doubts about an AFL team being positioned here. Its a great spot, but they struggle to fill their stadium when the Knights play. Plus its AFL fanbase is already wildly skewed towards the Swans, and from what i've seen, Swans fans are loyal to a fault!

As Gold Coast has shown, I don't think the AFL are particularly concerned if the NRL are filling out stadiums or not and have shown a lot of patience in the past with breaking the NRL stranglehold in NSW/QLD. After all, it took both Sydney and Brisbane (as well as a merger for Brisbane) around 1-2 decades to become reliably profitable and in a much more financially insecure time for the league. There isn't much external pressure on Gold Coast or GWS (who are in a much better position) to sort their s**t out either, something teams like St. Kilda have copped in recent years.

I suspect the next major expansion decision is Newcastle or another team in Sydney proper, and that'll likely accompany Hobart into the league. Expansion will always follow population growth, and greater Newcastle is expected to hit 750k population in the next 20 years (noting its very similar numbers wise to Gold Coast).