Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

Who will Adelaide select with pick 1?


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Deaneus!

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Stiffy_18

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Yep ... to optimise this we need to Essendon NOT to want to trade 6,7 or 8 and we also need to keep threat of a McInnes bid there

then we may be able to either use the pick or trade with pies for their 2021 1st if none of our top raters are still there
With the sort of year that we have had, I suspect the club's ranking of draftees will be so different across the board than they would have been any other year. It's difficult to rate at least 60% of the draft pool given that they have not played a game this year. The rest of the country you can scout pretty well since the games took place but the rating of Victorian kids will vary significantly. That's why this will be the year where players that clubs genuinely rated in their top 10 get picked in the 20s etc.

This is part of the reason why I think that we are unlikely to trade pick 9 as I suspect we will have a player available there that we may have rated in our top 5 or 6 players. I see Essendon as the ones most likely to trade a top 10 pick given that they have 6, 7 and 8.

For us, I think it will be a case of going in with 1 and then sitting back and seeing what unfolds before 9. If I was a betting man, I would think we would be 90% chance to pick a player here and 10% to trade the pick. With 22 and 23, we may be able to move those up or down the order but the first 2 picks are just about set for us. It would have to be a heck of a deal for us to make a trade there IMHO.
 

Chase13

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So Pies have offered Pick 16 and their 2021 1st to Essendon for Pick 8

That's been declined, as far as Twomey is aware.

You can bet that offer will have come across our table as well
Recruiters must consider top 10 good to not consider that. I would want 14 plus 16 plus future fist for 9. At least 14 and future
 

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mickfaxis

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I want it to happen. This board will be on fire till well into next year.
For the first time in history we have a #1 pick. There are 2 guys without much between them in the mix for it. One happens to be a local boy....the first top 5 SA lad we could ever have. Yet this board will go into meltdown if we select him!! Classic AFC fan base logic. We really HAVE turned into the New York Knicks then.
 

GROTTO

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For the first time in history we have a #1 pick. There are 2 guys without much between them in the mix for it. One happens to be a local boy....the first top 5 SA lad we could ever have. Yet this board will go into meltdown if we select him!! Classic AFC fan base logic. We really HAVE turned into the New York Knicks then.
I have no problems whatsoever who we pick.

In all seriousness you cannot make an assessment on a player, until they have had sufficient opportunity to prove themselves.

If history of the draft is anything to go, when this draft is redone in a year or 5 years time, it will be very different to the draft order of 2020.

Its almost always the case.
 

FAITH

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For the first time in history we have a #1 pick. There are 2 guys without much between them in the mix for it. One happens to be a local boy....the first top 5 SA lad we could ever have. Yet this board will go into meltdown if we select him!! Classic AFC fan base logic. We really HAVE turned into the New York Knicks then.
The distance between Logan and Riley is like the distance between WA and SA.
 

BringbacktheBiff2005

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It makes no difference what I think, but by comparison to the rest of the league, our midfield is garbage. It was garbage even with Brad Crouch in it and now it's starting to catch fire to boot. We have very little depth and even less class

Hollands is the kind of player who you'd build a midfield around, and oozes class. Without a semi-decent midfield we're going to be at the bottom of the table for a long time, so I'd take Hollands first. The fact he supported the club, looks keen to come here, and is a minimal flight risk is a bonus.
This is my current thinking.

If Jones, McHenry, Schoenberg, Scholl, Hamill etc all develop as we think they should, I don't think there is an absolute elite midfielder in that bunch.

But.... you add Hollands who I think could be a superstar and all of a sudden that midfield group looks pretty solid in a 2-3 of years.

If by chance RT does slide and we get a couple of sleepers at 22/23 we would have done well.

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mickfaxis

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I have no problems whatsoever who we pick.

In all seriousness you cannot make an assessment on a player, until they have had sufficient opportunity to prove themselves.

If history of the draft is anything to go, when this draft is redone in a year or 5 years time, it will be very different to the draft order of 2020.

Its almost always the case.
100% agree with that.

Talls take their time to reach full potential. No matter whether it's McDonald or Thilthorpe there'll most likely be a mid who has a better rookie season.

You've got to give a top draft pick 3 seasons in my opinion before they really can be judged.

I'm fine with either player. If Riley had a similar season to Logan then this would be the smallest thread in Big Footy draft clean-up history. He didn't so most who've never actually seen him play through his junior career, have written him off.

At least we're in the position to make the call.
 

Disco Fox

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This is my current thinking.

If Jones, McHenry, Schoenberg, Scholl, Hamill etc all develop as we think they should, I don't think there is an absolute elite midfielder in that bunch.

But.... you add Hollands who I think could be a superstar and all of a sudden that midfield group looks pretty solid in a 2-3 of years.

If by chance RT does slide and we get a couple of sleepers at 22/23 we would have done well.

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Hately?
 

Crowked

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Dogs now can use 5 picks (2x2nd, 3x3rd) to match for the best player in the draft.

What a joke!
Anyone that thinks the AFL is a genuine competition are kidding themselves. There is literally nothing that isn’t tampered with anymore. They introduced a new rule, that will only exist for the one year that a VFL team needs it to, to get their hands on the best player in the draft and carry no burden for it going forward. Until next year when Collingwood might need it too. We’ll have to wait and see if they need the leg up before they decide to extend it for another year or not. This is the most corrupted, supposedly equalised competition in the world.
 

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BringbacktheBiff2005

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Funnily enough, just saw another post about Hately and realised I'd left him out.

Not sure he will be elite but will definitely add to that bunch.

Couple of exciting, and most likely incredibly frustrating, years ahead I reckon.

Most frustrating and disappointing aspect of this year was the performances of the senior group of players not the kids.

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BunjiMac

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I agree with most that talls take longer to develop. That's why I'm my opinion, when drafting you don't necessarily look for talls who are the complete package. You look for those that have some absolute elite traits but are a little rough around the edges and incredible upside.

They are going to take some time anyway, so you want to know that you've only scratched the surface in terms of their capabilities.

Midfielders tend to be more consistent in their projection, not perfect, but more reliable from exposed junior form.

This is the main reason why I'd pick a midfielder with pick 1 and a tall with pick 9. It's just a pain in the a-hole that Hollands had to do his ACL.
 

mattymac

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I think I’ve settled with us taking McDonald. Least injury prone, the ‘experts’ rate him as best prospect and probably the safest of the 3. Can’t overthink it, I know I have been haha
I reckon we'll take Thilthorpe.

A. We'll go tall because we're conservative, that's the conservative 'way to rebuild', talls take a long time to show so there is less pressure, Hamish is more comfortable picking talls

B. Even for us, a number 1 pick leaving us would be very embarrassing.
 

ltdamn

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This is my current thinking.

If Jones, McHenry, Schoenberg, Scholl, Hamill etc all develop as we think they should, I don't think there is an absolute elite midfielder in that bunch.

But.... you add Hollands who I think could be a superstar and all of a sudden that midfield group looks pretty solid in a 2-3 of years.

If by chance RT does slide and we get a couple of sleepers at 22/23 we would have done well.

On SM-G986B using BigFooty.com mobile app
McHenry is a small forward we're desperately trying to retrofit as a midfielder. Scholl and Hamill are halfbacks/wingers, and Schoenberg is arguably also a running wide midfielder. Of that bunch, Jones and Schoenberg are the only ones really starting in the middle in 2-3 years, maybe along with Hately. Once Sloane goes, which is coming pretty soon, and if Crouch leaves next year, we really do need Hollands, otherwise we really do still struggle to match up with any midfield in the league in 3 years from now.

What tips me towards Hollands is that we picked McAsey with our first pick last year, so perhaps they will look to add to the midfield this time around.
 

Brett Cummings

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I reckon we'll take Thilthorpe.

A. We'll go tall because we're conservative, that's the conservative 'way to rebuild', talls take a long time to show so there is less pressure, Hamish is more comfortable picking talls

B. Even for us, a number 1 pick leaving us would be very embarrassing.
except he's not the best player in the draft so that would be a flop for hamish.
 

mattymac

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I'd rather our choice at #1 not have the pressure associated with that pick .....$10K over the millions he'll make is inconsequential

As it is ..the next 10 years on the Big Footy Board is going to be dominated by the Thilthorpe / McDonald / Hollands selection

David Mackay can rest easy now .....
I reckon there will be pressure from on high not to bid at pick 1.

Pick 1 has marketability. Can be monetised.
 

Stiffy_18

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I agree with most that talls take longer to develop. That's why I'm my opinion, when drafting you don't necessarily look for talls who are the complete package. You look for those that have some absolute elite traits but are a little rough around the edges and incredible upside.

They are going to take some time anyway, so you want to know that you've only scratched the surface in terms of their capabilities.

Midfielders tend to be more consistent in their projection, not perfect, but more reliable from exposed junior form.

This is the main reason why I'd pick a midfielder with pick 1 and a tall with pick 9. It's just a pain in the a-hole that Hollands had to do his ACL.
The development trajectories are also a consideration when building a team.

Generally speaking, given that talls take longer to develop, you would take talls early in the rebuild, then midfielders. This way you get them hitting that prime at the same time.

This of course is in a perfect world but in reality you take the best talent and figure it out later.
 

70lethal

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We dont mind going very tall (40%) with our 1st since the draft before our 1st flag.
Yet it doesnt matter how you look at history its the very low percentage option.

1. You can look at our 1st picks over 20 years
2. Look at no. 1 picks over 20 years. No tall over 195cm going pick 1 has played 200 games so far during this time
3. Look at the top 10 most played games from the super draft of 2001 and there's no one over 195cm

The only piece of history one can justify picking a 195cm + in the top 10 is Franklin yet hawthorn won 2 flags without him so go figure.

Premeirships are built by lots of high end midfield picks close together and usually take 7-10 years.
The WB did it way shorter due to F/S gifts.

Over 195 cm

Pick 13 Tom Gilligan 198cm 3/9 33%
Pick 36 Biglands 200cm
Pick 7 Angwin 200cm
Pick 14 Watts 197cm
Pick 8 Meesan 200cm
Pick 14 Sellar 196cm
Pick 10 Davis 196cm
Pick 13 Talia 195cm
Pick 62 Siggins 195cm
Pick 6 McAsey 197cm

190cm - 194cm 2/2 100%

Smith 194cm
Lever 194cm
Fogarty 192cm

185cm -190cm 4/5 80%

Burton
Jericho
Dangerfield
B Crouch
Milera,

Under 184cm 3/5 60%

Picioane 183cm
Reilly 183cm
Douglas 180cm
MCrouch 181cm
Gallucci 182cm
Jones 180cm

Super Draft of 2000

1606819065377.png


2004 Draft (Betts was taken in preseason draft.)
Franklin is the freak

1606819202805.png


Pick 1 over 195cm since 2000
Kreuzer, Watts, Patton, Boyd, McCartin, Weitering
554 games between the 1st 5 very talls and none made it to 200 games

1606818698555.png


Bulldogs rebuild very similar to geelong and hawthorn using all high picks on mids and mid/for for multiple years.
1606821693666.png
1606821731666.png
 
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