Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

Who will Adelaide select with pick 1?


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Deaneus!

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CroCop

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Look at Boyd and Patton both Number 1 picks and look how their careers panned out.

They hype on them was unbelievable. Especially Patton.
Add Schacke to that list and even McCartin who wasn’t setting the world on fire even prior to head knocks . Sam Day another . All the above had so much hype and were early picks and basically would all be outside top 30 in their respective drafts if they were done again .
 

Footywizard

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A week to go...whats the local gossip from ppl who may know in Adelaide for pick 1??
Or is it still just what the media are leaning towards with thilthorpe
 

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Brett Cummings

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A week to go...whats the local gossip from ppl who may know in Adelaide for pick 1??
Or is it still just what the media are leaning towards with thilthorpe
best player in draft is hollands. hamish will be too stubborn to pick him though.

im fully expecting us to take thilthorpe. the weak option.
 
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70lethal

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Definitely one of the most intelligent things I’ve seen posted in this thread. Football fans fall in love with big key forwards, but the reality is that in modern footy they are totally dependent on great supply from elite midfielders. If you asked most fans who the best key forwards in the comp are, they would say Tom Lynch, Cameron and Hawkins, but look at the midfields delivering the ball to those guys.

fact is that with zones and players flooding back, there are no forwards that can turn a game on their own, they need the team to be turning the ball over in dangerous places and delivering the ball well and fast. if we take Any key forward at pick 1 this year with the midfield we currently have, then our fan base is going to have to have a lot of patience, because they won’t be playing at a high level for years.

Hollands, Perkins, Macrae, Carroll and maybe Poulter are the guys that will turn our team around the quickest, and bring the best out of our existing forwards.
Core midfields need 4-6 years together for success and why its best to draft them close together.
2001 super draft delivered premierships in 2007 & 2008

Martin and Cotchin have played together for 8 years before their 1st flag and it was when they added more depth with Prestia and Caddy that allow Martin to go forward and success happen.

If we can add your list plus Hately to Milera, Jones and McHenry plus 1- 3 more next year we should end up with a good balance of x factor, big bodies, pressure players, endurance kings and goal kickers.

Then get the KPF and who knows how Fogs is in a years time.

The last piece of the puzzle is to get a small forward with the surname Rioli.
 

Murray2503

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A week to go...whats the local gossip from ppl who may know in Adelaide for pick 1??
Or is it still just what the media are leaning towards with thilthorpe
I'm not sure the crows know who their taking yet. I feel they will choose between Hollands and McDonald at 1(2).
It may pan out as either:
1 JUH wb. 1 JUH wb
2 McDonald adl. 2 Hollands adl
3 Hollands nm. 3 McDonald nm
4 DGB syd.
5 Campbell syd.
6 Thilthorpe haw.
7 Phillips gc.
8 Bruhn ess.
9 Reid ess.
10 Jones pa.
11 Perkins ess.
12 Cox adl (if they pick Hollands)
O'Driscoll adl (if they pick McDonald)
Alternatively they may go totally local and take Thilthorpe at 2 and trade 12,26 to Collingwood for 17,19 and take Poulter at 17.
 
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Oct 2, 2020
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Definitely one of the most intelligent things I’ve seen posted in this thread. Football fans fall in love with big key forwards, but the reality is that in modern footy they are totally dependent on great supply from elite midfielders. If you asked most fans who the best key forwards in the comp are, they would say Tom Lynch, Cameron and Hawkins, but look at the midfields delivering the ball to those guys.

fact is that with zones and players flooding back, there are no forwards that can turn a game on their own, they need the team to be turning the ball over in dangerous places and delivering the ball well and fast. if we take Any key forward at pick 1 this year with the midfield we currently have, then our fan base is going to have to have a lot of patience, because they won’t be playing at a high level for years.

Hollands, Perkins, Macrae, Carroll and maybe Poulter are the guys that will turn our team around the quickest, and bring the best out of our existing forwards.
This comment and other previous similar comments are half right, but half wrong.

A forward doesn't need the absolute best midfield to be effective. And vice versa, the best midfields don't always produce an effective forward. Prime example of this is Jeremy Cameron this year - still had arguably the best midfield in the comp kicking it to him, but look at the year he had compared to previous years.

Forwards generally rely on three things:
- Being in a winning team
- Number of inside 50 entries per game
- Quality of supply or quality of inside 50 possession (half dependent on the guys kicking it to him, but also dependent on his ability to do things like get space on a lead or win a marking contest)

You could conceivably have a middle of the range midfield, but still do well as a forward if you do one or several of those things well.

Additionally, I think people are starting to undersell key forwards in the modern game.

Do they dominate in the modern game every game like they used to? No.

But, apart from a Dusty or Danger or Fyfe or Cripps type hybrid, or a Charlie Cameron type small forward, a KPF can still win you at least one (or more) of 3 or 4 finals games off their own marking and boot.

Additionally, if you look at all the teams that have won Grand Finals over the last decade or two - almost all of them have at least one or two big key forwards (and mostly big name key forwards). Key forwards don't just kick goals - they split a contest for your mids and forwards, and the really good ones can change a backline's strategy to your advantage.

You can either draft a key forward, or you can sign one as a free agent. The Crows aren't Richmond, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney etc. - so, we most likely have to draft one.
 
Oct 2, 2020
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Interesting listen. Adelaide picks were Elijah Hollands, Caleb Poulter, Tom Powell, Bailey Laurie, Jackson Callow,
I think the casual observer is sleeping on Powell because of his size, and because he isn't as flashy as other prospects.

I genuinely see his potential ceiling as being a Tom Mitchell or Lachie Neale type player (I don't think those 'best case' scenarios are fantasy - although obviously it's still absolute best case). I say that mostly because his game understanding, vision and football IQ is incredibly high. He's not slow either - he has good speed and agility without being elite. He does need to bulk up some more and work on being more damaging with his kicking, but size should come with time, and the rest of the package that he offers leaves him at a high floor in my opinion. If we get him at pick 22 or 23 - that is a bona fide steal. I just don't see him lasting that long though.

After seeing Poulter's athletic testing numbers, I also think he has an incredibly high potential ceiling (if everything goes right). I love his versatility and array of tools. A guy that can go through the midfield, but then rest forward with that height and vertical of his = a player with lots of potential weapons and ways to do damage (which also lowers his bust potential). You combine those things with the production he showed this year in the U18's and the SA game, and you have a very intriguing prospect. I also don't see Poulter lasting until our pick 22 or 23 though.

I'd be incredibly happy if we were able to end up with both of them.

As a sidenote, I think people are sleeping on the little signs Schoenberg showed this year. His first 5-10 metres can be very explosive at times (Nicks actually pointed out this observation earlier in the year from watching him at training and match simulation), and he is a great thickness through his shoulders and upper body too (which is only going to make him harder to tackle and take down as he matures). I really like him as a future midfield member alongside other guys we can bring in if he can continue to develop his midfield craft.
 
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Add Schacke to that list and even McCartin who wasn’t setting the world on fire even prior to head knocks . Sam Day another . All the above had so much hype and were early picks and basically would all be outside top 30 in their respective drafts if they were done again .
A lot of people are outlining the bust potential of hyped up key forwards.

Is some of that justified? Yes

But, the problem with most of the guys that keep getting listed is that they were either perennially injured (I'm looking at McCartin, Patton, and you can even argue that Boyd ended up giving the game away because of his mental illness issues) ...

Or, you had guys who dominated against juniors (who didn't have adult bodies or game seasoning) without consistently proving themselves in senior competition. Sam Day played SANFL for Sturt - but even he wasn't the prospect McDonald is, and Day went to possibly the worst club in the modern history of the AFL at the time (Gold Coast literally use to lift weights in, hold meetings in, and change and shower in portable sheds, and sometimes trained on ovals with divets in the first few years).

People want to point to the different game style of the WAFL - but, you can point to guys like Aaron Naughton and Oscar Allen ... did they put up 21 goals in their draft year like McDonald? Did they show enough to their coaches in their draft year that they could be put as their team's key forward at 18 years old? From memory, both of those guys played backline as juniors. You could make an argument for McDonald that he was so productive as a key forward that he completely eliminated the opportunity for his coach to swing him to the backline to test him out there, or to get him some confidence and touch. That's how good he was this year - one of the knocks on him is that his positional versatility is unknown because he hasn't been trialled in the backline this year, and to my knowledge, the year before too.

As I mentioned in a previous post - you either draft a key forward or you sign one as a free agent majority of the time - McDonald (outside of JAH) offers the best combination of performance, durability/injury risk, and scope to develop (if he grows more, and he gains some more athleticism with an AFL level training program, which is not uncommon - you're looking at a very good player). If he busts for whatever reason (no prospect is completely bust proof - some are just less risky than others) - at least you went for the best prospect instead of the safe 'home grown' guy who you know is going to stay. If you deem him even as a low flight risk (which is what he should be based on current information) - you get proactive with his contracts years in advance, and you have a tonne of leverage for any club who comes knocking. I think he'll at least stay past his first rookie contract (Gold Coast managed to get Lukosius and Rankine to sign on as an example).
 
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Murray2503

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I think the casual observer is sleeping on Powell because of his size, and because he isn't as flashy as other prospects.

I genuinely see his potential ceiling as being a Tom Mitchell or Lachie Neale type player (I don't think those 'best case' scenarios are fantasy - although obviously it's still absolute best case). I say that mostly because his game understanding, vision and football IQ is incredibly high. He's not slow either - he has good speed and agility without being elite. He does need to bulk up some more and work on being more damaging with his kicking, but size should come with time, and the rest of the package that he offers leaves him at a high floor in my opinion. If we get him at pick 22 or 23 - that is a bona fide steal. I just don't see him lasting that long though.

After seeing Poulter's athletic testing numbers, I also think he has an incredibly high potential ceiling (if everything goes right). I love his versatility and array of tools. A guy that can go through the midfield, but then rest forward with that height and vertical of his = a player with lots of potential weapons and ways to do damage (which also lowers his bust potential). You combine those things with the production he showed this year in the U18's and the SA game, and you have a very intriguing prospect. I also don't see Poulter lasting until our pick 22 or 23 though.

I'd be incredibly happy if we were able to end up with both of them.

As a sidenote, I think people are sleeping on the little signs Schoenberg showed this year. His first 5-10 metres can be very explosive at times (Nicks actually pointed out this observation earlier in the year from watching him at training and match simulation), and he is a great thickness through his shoulders and upper body too (which is only going to make him harder to tackle and take down as he matures). I really like him as a future midfield member alongside other guys we can bring in if he can continue to develop his midfield craft.
Yeah Schoenberg has good burst speed at stoppages and is always on the move. Has a knack to be at the drop zone consistently. Showed once he gets even stronger and fitter he will be a gun mid imo. He also doesn't take a backward step which is a good sign from a young kid.
 
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Yeah Schoenberg has good burst speed at stoppages and is always on the move. Has a knack to be at the drop zone consistently. Showed once he gets even stronger and fitter he will be a gun mid imo. He also doesn't take a backward step which is a good sign from a young kid.
I certainly like his attitude out on the field - it helps set a good tone.

I think it was the GWS game at Adelaide Oval - I noticed him initiating with, and actually roughing up a few of the more established GWS midfielders.

There's not many guys he matches up with that are going to be able to intimidate him or push him around physically.
 

mattymac

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A forward doesn't need the absolute best midfield to be effective. And vice versa, the best midfields don't always produce an effective forward. Prime example of this is Jeremy Cameron this year - still had arguably the best midfield in the comp kicking it to him, but look at the year he had compared to previous years.
With all due respect, this is possibly the most ludicrous example you could give.

In the 2019 Granny Cameron kicked 1 goal to Martin's 4.

That on the back of winning the Coleman. That's where it's at. An absolute gun KPF might help you in the minor round and minor finals but the mid-forward is the match winner when real money is on the table.

"But West Coast won a flag with a lead up forward"

Sure, look at the midfield they had. Who won the Norm Smith?
 

FR0GGY

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History shows the opposite.
Franklin and Roughead after Hodge Mitchell Brown etc
Boyd after Macrae, String, Bont
Brown after Voss, Lappin, Aka, Black
Lynch after Cotchin, Martin, Vaustin, Prestia, Caddy
Ottens and Mooney after Ablett, Bartel, Johnson, Enright, Corey

Great midfields help gun KPF develop quicker
Crap midfields destroy them
Your overall premise is correct that a good midfield helps a key forwards but.
Why have you used lynch and not Riewoldt?
Brown was the 2nd banana behind Lynch and equal with Bradshaw in 01,02,03 both of who were drafted earlier.
Maybe it’s that dual/multiple key forwards help each other just as much.
 

Danger Zone

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So Pies have offered Pick 16 and their 2021 1st to Essendon for Pick 8

That's been declined, as far as Twomey is aware.

You can bet that offer will have come across our table as well
If we were keen on the LM/O'Driscoll double and thought he would be there at 16, I can definitely see us doing that trade. If there is any truth in it then I imagine it would be a draft day trade though.
 

Rags_118

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I dont hate him. he's just not the best player in the draft.
History shows that the so called best player in the Draft, that being the consensus No 1 Pick at the time, rarely proves to be anywhere close to actual best player from that year’s draft.

It’s more likely than not that the actual best player will come from outside the Top 5.
 

Rags_118

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Hamish gave an interview where he said what really attracted him to McHenry was his infectious personality. Apparently we really needed that fizz and bubble around the club at time.
With the benefit of hindsight, McHenry looks like Pick 40 from the Rookie Draft than a a couple of years in the system, I’m seeing a spud who won’t make it. I’m expecting a straight delisting at end of contract. He’s a poor man’s Aidan Riley.
 

hey shorty

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With all due respect, this is possibly the most ludicrous example you could give.

In the 2019 Granny Cameron kicked 1 goal to Martin's 4.

That on the back of winning the Coleman. That's where it's at. An absolute gun KPF might help you in the minor round and minor finals but the mid-forward is the match winner when real money is on the table.

"But West Coast won a flag with a lead up forward"

Sure, look at the midfield they had. Who won the Norm Smith?
Richmond were also destroyed the week before that by a 200cm KPF.

The reality is you need the whole setup. It's ridiculous to say "Richmond don't win a flag without Dusty*. If he doesn't play against GWS do they lose ?? If he doesn't play against us do we ?? You'd have to be very optimistic to say yes in both instances. Otherwise Fyfe and Danger wouldn't be sitting on duck eggs.

The other thing is, as I keep pointing out to you and you dismiss, we'll be picking midfielders in this draft as well as next. Some of the parts are already there too.... And we have an actual AFL standard coaching panel and a playing group who appear as if they want to work.
 
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