Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

Who will Adelaide select with pick 1?

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  • Poll closed .

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​
 
70lethal said:
Only to the those that dont take into consideration the perils of wasting high end picks drafting key interstate talls over 195cm in the 1st round.

So here's a f**cking stat, not one KPF that we drafted over 195cm with our 1st pick has made it in the clubs history.
In case you dont understand that = 0%. Really helped the team

If they are potential match winners they don't stay when the big $$$ are offered.
If they stay they are either busts or seriously injury prone.
The only one to stay long enough at the club drafted to win a flag in the last 20 years was Franklin and even he left. The others were tasmanians how the f**k is that useless information.

Maybe when you understand this stat and see how many over 195cm we have draft with our 1st pick in the past 24 years you may understand one serious contributing factor why we havent won a flag for 22 years. We burnt to many 1st picks on low percentage picks

66% of our 1st pick on guys over 195cm have been busts, how the f**k does help the team especially when they make up 40% of our 1st picks.
Picks 7, 8, 13, 14, 14 just to name a few.
The only players to succeed where defenders Davis and Talia and Ruckman Biglands and one of them left.
Funny how Davis was born in Canberra

So out of 10 of our 1st picks in the past 24 years we got 2 to contribute long term. 20%

best not to comment if you dont understand the consequences and I guessing you dont work in a field that requires risk management
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I feel dumber having read that, sorry but no.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
ADL9798 said:
I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here. He's nearly 32 years old, everyone reaches the end at some point.

For whatever reason he's always been irrationally underrated by many people. He has his flaws but he's a perfect example of a 'moneyball' footballer and has had a very good career.

Put it this way, if we had invested a top 10 draft pick in a key forward and he ended up with a career like Josh Jenkins, I wouldn’t be unhappy. Looking at the careers of other key forwards taken with top 10 picks, that would probably be a par score.
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Let's clean up a misconception, shall we?

Under no point is Josh Jenkins a money ball player. Moneyball is a process where you aim to recruit undervalued players (by whatever cutting edge analytics a side is operating with) who could immediately improve a teams best 22 (i.e. H.Greenwood, Lyons, our Tom Lynch to pick some example). It's also a process where by using said analytics, you are moving people on when they've either become overvalued by another team, or they've overvalued themselves.

We never recruited Jenkins to be a best 22 player. We recruited Jenkins as a cheap contingency plan in case Tippett decided to go back home to Sydney, QLD. The baseball equivalent of us trading for Jenkins is just making a trade for a player in AAA to give organisational depth and injury coverage. Sometimes those trades reap rewards and in this case, the trade for Jenkins ended up being a home run.

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the room here. We missed the opportunity to make Jenkins a "perfect moneyball player" because the time to do so was in 2016. Jenkins was overvalued compared to his output, seeing he was someone who kicked goals but was a liability in every other facet of being a forward in an era where a forward needs to be capable of more then just finishing off scoring opportunities. Not only that but the league was beginning to wake up to the fact that this guy was nowhere near the key forward his goal count indicated. Unfortunately for us, goals can suck in a two-bit hack to overvalue a player and oh boy did we pay for that. The fact we had to pay some of JJ salary to get rid of him indicates how much of a *up that extension was and still is.
 

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Danger Zone said:
From what I have seen, I am a big fan of Poulter, just seems to have it. Likewise Bruhn. I'm also pretty confident that Pedlar is right in the mix for us. Gut feel says that Maher will be gone well before our picks in the 20s. And I think Trew will be a bargain late in the draft, seems to have really clean hands in close.

Will be interesting to see how these predictions go later down the track.
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I'm keen on Poulter too, especially if we can't get Hollands, I think Poulter could be in the same league as Hollands.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
rabidcrow said:
Just because he doesn’t play in a style you like doesn’t change the fact he was a very successful forward and had a terrific career for a rookie pick - probably top 10, maybe top 5 forward rookie pick of all time

One of 3 players in the comp to kick 40 plus goals each year from 2014-2018

Didn’t play the contested style you would expect from a 200cm big man but worked his butt off to out run his opponent working back into space to get those “seagull” goals

Your comments don’t stack up with what he actually did


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...

my comments stack up EXACTLY with how he was rated by the club and coaching panel

my comments stack up EXACTLY with how he is rated by his new club

what doesn’t stack up is your perverse assessment against the facts.

the facts are that no forward has been regarded as lowly as he has been by the very experts within the footy industry given his goals

the only realistic and intelligent analysis is that overall performance was shizen
 
LoBu said:
I'm keen on Poulter too, especially if we can't get Hollands, I think Poulter could be in the same league as Hollands.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app
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If we picked yo Poulter in this years draft we would have a midfield mix with Poulter, Hately and O'Conner all between 6'3 and 6'4 in it.

I would think we could safely assume that we have filled that niche!
 
GreyCrow said:
There was a small article/footnote that mentioned this

Many clubs are choosing not to draft on unexposed form and will only pick based on 2019 form and any projections they feel they have bedded down

*not including exposed SA/WA form
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And this is where teams that are willing to take the risk like we could be big winners when the draft gets reviewed in 5 or so years time.

Traditionally, we have been pretty good at identifying talent based on their U16s form. Its how we picked up Phil Davis, Andrew McPherson to name a couple.

The teams that do a mountain of work and back in their development program can come out as big winners with some absolute bargains from this year's draft.
 
Scorpus said:
The only worse outcome than taking a KPD with pick 1, is taking a ruck with pick 1.

Makes me want to vomit
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In a redraft of 2012 last year, Grundy is rated number 1, behind Whitfield. Perhaps not all, but the one I saw, I didn't keep looking.

You may not like it and can make a good argument as to why it's a bad call (vomiting, visceral but not influential), but it is subjective and there is a weight of opinion on the contrary view.

Having said all that, pretty sure Thilthorpe is not a ruck first.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Gary123 said:
And also McAsey and Hollands are mates from school
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And Zavier Maher is his best mate away from football as well as a schoolmate and teammate at Caulfield Grammar, teammates at Vic Country, and Zavier is Elijah's Captain at the Murray Bushrangers. :)
 
Betts are off said:
If we picked yo Poulter in this years draft we would have a midfield mix with Poulter, Hately and O'Conner all between 6'3 and 6'4 in it.

I would think we could safely assume that we have filled that niche!
Click to expand...
That is some serious size in the engine room. Compliment that with Laird, Shoenberg, Jones and M Crouch and hopefully we add further midfield quality this draft and maybe even a very highly rated mid at the end of next year and fingers crossed, that part of the team will be well set for the next decade. That is why I think we simply must take an elite tall with pick 1 this year
 
hey shorty said:
McDonald is the safe choice, don't really like it but if the guys think he's the best then fine.
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It depends on where you have "safe" I guess. Football wise Phillips looks the safest to me, I think he'll be a good footballer with little risk involved re performance on the field.....but there are other factors at play with some of the interstate lads. If you weigh up those other factors I think Hollands and Thilthorpe are the safest bets to retain career wise.
 

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Crow till I die said:
That is some serious size in the engine room. Compliment that with Laird, Shoenberg, Jones and M Crouch and hopefully we add further midfield quality this draft and maybe even a very highly rated mid at the end of next year and fingers crossed, that part of the team will be well set for the next decade. That is why I think we simply must take an elite tall with pick 1 this year
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Poulter certainly has size but inside the contest where it's at it's biggest advantage is certainly not his forte, his best talents are outside the contest with his speed, athleticism, versatility and penetrating kick.
 
Stiffy_18 said:
And this is where teams that are willing to take the risk like we could be big winners when the draft gets reviewed in 5 or so years time.

Traditionally, we have been pretty good at identifying talent based on their U16s form. Its how we picked up Phil Davis, Andrew McPherson to name a couple.

The teams that do a mountain of work and back in their development program can come out as big winners with some absolute bargains from this year's draft.
Click to expand...
Totally agree. This year is almost made for us, I would say we are the best team when it comes to picking players on potential improvement, as evident with our success with late picks and rookie draft.

I'd be happy for us to take 5 in this draft, it would be a great way to get ahead of the game.

However, the 3 chances to pick players during the year from the 2020 undrafted crop, are also areas we should be really focusing on, as all clubs will.
 
Mutineer said:
Poulter certainly has size but inside the contest where it's at it's biggest advantage is certainly not his forte, his best talents are outside the contest with his speed, athleticism, versatility and penetrating kick.
Click to expand...
Little bit of Polec about Poulter? (Footy wise only)
 
WaynesWorld19 said:
Hurt factor with his possessions
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A lot of O'Driscoll's best work is in the contest and I'm not too sure about the "hurt factor" either because while his short kicking can be inconsistent he's actually a long and penetrating kick when he pulls the trigger....his game is built around his manic competitive nature. Nobody gets an easy possession when he's in the contest.
 
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