Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[JennyTalia]

Still a bit to come with Stone IMO so he probably projects well for the future but pick 9 would be a stretch IMO.

I've never seen him play but have read conflicting things about his speed. Sometimes it seems listed as an asset but the draft central guide listed it as average and said he was hardly explosive or something like that. Perhaps he tested quick but doesn't play that way? Have you seen enough to comment?

 

[Betts are off]

just read the last 20 pages to catch up... what a shitshow.

Really only got one thing to add in response to reading it all..

F**k off Brett.

Yeah, i've been on the road the last few days and kept watching the thread go up by 10+ pages a day. You learn quite quickly who to skim past

 

[Golumless]

I move to install a 'No Jenkins Chat' motion in the draft thread! Punishable by days off.

Can I get a 2nd?

I'm for this when we get to the day where people stop butchering the meaning of the term "moneyball".

Thats ok because the numbers dont lie and its easier for most to avoid reality and live in fantasy land as it gives false hope.

Numbers don't lie, however, the meaning (if there is any, as numbers/trends can exist just because) can certainly be butchered.

Only to the those that dont take into consideration the perils of wasting high end picks drafting key interstate talls over 195cm in the 1st round.

So here's a f**cking stat, not one KPF that we drafted over 195cm with our 1st pick has made it in the clubs history.
In case you dont understand that = 0%. Really helped the team

If they are potential match winners they don't stay when the big $$$ are offered.
If they stay they are either busts or seriously injury prone.
The only one to stay long enough at the club drafted to win a flag in the last 20 years was Franklin and even he left. The others were tasmanians how the f**k is that useless information.

Maybe when you understand this stat and see how many over 195cm we have draft with our 1st pick in the past 24 years you may understand one serious contributing factor why we havent won a flag for 22 years. We burnt to many 1st picks on low percentage picks

66% of our 1st pick on guys over 195cm have been busts, how the f**k does help the team especially when they make up 40% of our 1st picks.
Picks 7, 8, 13, 14, 14 just to name a few.
The only players to succeed where defenders Davis and Talia and Ruckman Biglands and one of them left.
Funny how Davis was born in Canberra

So out of 10 of our 1st picks in the past 24 years we got 2 to contribute long term. 20%

best not to comment if you dont understand the consequences and I guessing you dont work in a field that requires risk management

That might be the most useless stat you could have come up with. Useless because drafting and development history as well as luck all combine when it comes to judging if a player is successful or not. Considering that under no point can you realistically rule out luck (unless you want to live in a fantasy world that hard work is all it takes to be successful), and luck is by far the most important element of anyone AFL career (think of all the careers that got ruined because they had the misfortune of being taken by Melbourne, Carlton etc, had the wrong coach who didn't rate them, got injured at the wrong time etc) you cannot take anything out of drafting history of a position. The only thing you can take from drafting history is being able to judge a recruiter, as with recruiting in sport, good and lucky are one and the same.

Drafting has come a long way in the past 20 years, but it's an inexact science for a reason. If you were so keen to show off your risk management background, you'd take the 2020 draft, like you should take any drafts, as a purely isolated case because that is what they are. Now, let's play risk management game. Hollands has done an ACL, which means he's ~30% more likely to have a 2nd ACL injury compared to someone injuring it for the first time (number from a paper on the frequency of ACL injuries reoccurring). Not only that, but ACL injuries increase the risk for hamstring injuries which in itself has the possibility of being career ending, if not properly managed. This risk is magnified by Victorians not being able to play football this year which would have made Hollands slide, just due to that injury (after all, he's more of an unknown in a normal situation, and may have an artificially inflated rating in this specific draft). In a weird, and potentially coincidental sense, this might have cost us the opportunity to draft him at pick 9 in a normal year (and if Knightmare is to believed, he stagnated to a degree in his 2019 campaign, though take a very large grain of salt with that comment). Hollands might have the highest reward out of anyone at pick 1 though, seeing there is a lot to like about his game. JUH is not available to us and is therefore irrelevant. Whilst Thilthorpe has done enough to warrant being a best 22 player, he hasn't set the world on fire in the SANFL and has twinged a groin injury, and a groin injury in a key forward is enough for me to say "stay the hell away" at pick 1 (though comfortable gambling at pick 9). McDonald is healthy, set the world alight in the WAFL (2nd in goal kicking table), and potentially still growing, with the only major risk being Logan is currently 10 kg underweight.

If you are picking the safest option in the 2020 draft, you are taking Logan McDonald with pick 1.

 

[Disco Fox]

I'm keen on Poulter too, especially if we can't get Hollands, I think Poulter could be in the same league as Hollands.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

But they won't pick Poulter(or Powell) at Pick 9, so unless they trade down(as they did with Collingwood in the Lystics Mock Draft) I don't think they get them as they'll go between our 9 & 22.

 

[Betts are off]

But they won't pick Poulter(or Powell) at Pick 9, so unless they trade down(as they did with Collingwood in the Lystics Mock Draft) I don't think they get them as they'll go between our 9 & 22.

9 is a bit of a value crossroads IMO. I think we wait out the draft night to see if someone surprising has slid, but end up trading back and banking a future pick.

The good news is the value after 9 seems to flatten out, and there are a very even group in the next echelon who I'd be more then happy to snag (Poulter, Powell, Ford, Maher, Pedlar, McCrae, Cook, O'Driscol, Carrol)

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Still a bit to come with Stone IMO so he probably projects well for the future but pick 9 would be a stretch IMO.

I get the feeling we are into a few of these medium forwards - stone , henry and the other kid balmer mentioned with the speed/ endurance mix sound right up our alley

I think we end up with a tall forward , a medium forward ( one of above ) and 2 mids that can also play forward

O’Driscoll sounds more like a mid- back type which I’m not sure we will be into but we shall see

 

[FAITH]

You mean the SA u18 coach tony bamford..nah he would know jack schitt

He said he hadn't watched Logan McDonald play this year but apparently had a good year but in his opinion RT should go 1.
What an idiot.

 

[Mego Red]

A lot of O'Driscoll's best work is in the contest and I'm not too sure about the "hurt factor" either because while his short kicking can be inconsistent he's actually a long and penetrating kick when he pulls the trigger....his game is built around his manic competitive nature. Nobody gets an easy possession when he's in the contest.

Yeah, I forget who said it of the Draft Central boys, but they called O'Driscoll probably the best defensive mid in the draft, but he has a ways to go with his hurt factor.

That seems a reasonable view, especially considering the time OD has spent in the back six.

I'd be happy to take him from pick 15 onwards, but not before.

 

[Betts are off]

I get the feeling we are into a few of these medium forwards - stone , henry and the other kid balmer mentioned with the speed/ endurance mix sound right up our alley

I think we end up with a tall forward , a medium forward ( one of above ) and 2 mids that can also play forward

O’Driscoll sounds more like a mid- back type which I’m not sure we will be into but we shall see

Eddie Ford has long been a draft crush of mine as that medium forward with X Factor. His tape simply jumps off the screen. I think i'd be pretty happy to reach for him in the 14-20 range if thats what it took.

 

[Mego Red]

I've never seen him play but have read conflicting things about his speed. Sometimes it seems listed as an asset but the draft central guide listed it as average and said he was hardly explosive or something like that. Perhaps he tested quick but doesn't play that way? Have you seen enough to comment?

There's not much to see, is there? A couple of TAC games and maybe half a dozen school games a year ago?

 

[Disco Fox]

9 is a bit of a value crossroads IMO. I think we wait out the draft night to see if someone surprising has slid, but end up trading back and banking a future pick.

The good news is the value after 9 seems to flatten out, and there are a very even group in the next echelon who I'd be more then happy to snag (Poulter, Powell, Ford, Maher, Pedlar, McCrae, Cook, O'Driscol, Carrol)

Any knowledge and/or views on Connor Stone. In the last 24 hours he's been described as a draft bolter(one phantom draft had him at 50!!) & it's claimed that the Crows were very interested for 2nd round, but he may be gone by then. He's an"explosive" midfielder who kicks goals, I understand.

 

[Mego Red]

Yeah, i've been on the road the last few days and kept watching the thread go up by 10+ pages a day. You learn quite quickly who to skim past

You gotta mute some people if you want to follow this thread and not go insane.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Eddie Ford has long been a draft crush of mine as that medium forward with X Factor. His tape simply jumps off the screen. I think i'd be pretty happy to reach for him in the 14-20 range if thats what it took.

Same , like him too . No doubt Hamish will go for a more low profile one ! Let’s see

 

[WaynesWorld19]

AFL draft state of play: Why clubs are jostling to secure Victorian top-20 bolter

AFL draft state of play: Why clubs are jostling to secure top-20 bolter

www.foxsports.com.au

Victorian Conor Stone looms as one of the huge first-round bolters ahead of this year’s AFL national draft.
Despite the lack of exposure for Victorian draftees this year, Stone has been tracked closely by clubs holding selections in the second-half of the top 20.

It’s Stone’s mix of endurance, acceleration and speed that has clubs believing he could become a full-time midfielder in the future, given he ran a time of 6:35 in the 2km time trial and 2.95s in the 20m sprint at the recent Victorian draft combine.

Stone’s overhead marking and athleticism inside 50 appeals to clubs, with Adelaide (Pick 9), GWS (Picks 10, 13 and 15) and Collingwood (Picks 14 and 16) linked with the prospect. There is also a feeling among recruiters Stone could be utilised in defence at AFL level.

The Crows in the lead-up to the draft have been one of most interested clubs in Stone, who could be a contender to be taken with one of their second-round selections, according to draft sources. But if the Crows want Stone, they will now need to draft him with a top-10 selection.

South Australian Caleb Poulter, who has impressed throughout 2020, has been linked with Adelaide (Picks 22 and 23), North Melbourne (Pick 30) and Fremantle (Pick 32).

 

[Mego Red]

I get the feeling we are into a few of these medium forwards - stone , henry and the other kid balmer mentioned with the speed/ endurance mix sound right up our alley

I think we end up with a tall forward , a medium forward ( one of above ) and 2 mids that can also play forward

O’Driscoll sounds more like a mid- back type which I’m not sure we will be into but we shall see

Plus Ford, Perkins, Hollands, Cook - it's a good draft for mid-sized forwards whi can push into the midfield.

 

[Disco Fox]

Eddie Ford has long been a draft crush of mine as that medium forward with X Factor. His tape simply jumps off the screen. I think i'd be pretty happy to reach for him in the 14-20 range if thats what it took.

It will depend on how important consistency is to Nicks & co. as he bursts into the game(the video highlights show him to be a fierce tackler & has real pace), but then has significant quiet periods I understand. But, he's not the first 18 year old to be inconsistent, is he?!!!

 

[Betts are off]

Any knowledge and/or views on Connor Stone. In the last 24 hours he's been described as a draft bolter(one phantom draft had him at 50!!) & it's claimed that the Crows were very interested for 2nd round, but he may be gone by then. He's an"explosive" midfielder who kicks goals, I understand.

TBH I haven't seen him kick a Sherrin. He could be, but he's a long way off my radar as it stands

 

[Mutineer]

I've never seen him play but have read conflicting things about his speed. Sometimes it seems listed as an asset but the draft central guide listed it as average and said he was hardly explosive or something like that. Perhaps he tested quick but doesn't play that way? Have you seen enough to comment?

Looks reasonably slippery pace wise the few times I've seen him play, usually forward but I guess he's another like Brayden Cook this season that would likely have elevated his rankings if he'd actually got to play. You had to be pretty good to get a game as an under-ager in a talent stacked Oakleigh Chargers team last year so he's one that would have got a lot more exposure this season if the season had gone ahead. If recruiters are looking at him mid 1st round they must obviously have the feel he can transition into the midfield - midfielder/forward role, he certainly has the size for it.

Only way though I could see him going at Pick 9 would be clubs factoring in a lot of projection but.

 

[Mego Red]

The big question for me - what do we do with 40 (which current math looks like coming in to 38)?

It looks like maybe 60-40 that Borlase and Newchurch will slip through. They're certainly not in the top 40 footballers. Do we say no to someone that we rate higher at 38 to maintain our matching option?

One additional positive - if we don't pick at 40 and the NGAs get through, we can potentially take at least two rookie picks over the next few months. Not in the rookie draft, but by bringing players in for a closer look over summer, and then in the midyear draft.

 

[Betts are off]

It will depend on how important consistency is to Nicks & co. as he bursts into the game(the video highlights show him to be a fierce tackler & has real pace), but then has significant quiet periods I understand. But, he's not the first 18 year old to be inconsistent, is he?!!!

Yeah I read that too. TBH I wouldn't really expect him to play much as a rookie. Would have time to build up his game and address some of the inconsistency.

But if he can tune that part of his game in a bit, watch out!

 

[LoBu]

Thats ok because the numbers dont lie and its easier for most to avoid reality and live in fantasy land as it gives false hope.

You use numbers like a drunk man uses a light post, for something to lean on instead of illumination.

 

[Golumless]

The big question for me - what do we do with 40 (which current math looks like coming in to 38)?

It looks like maybe 60-40 that Borlase and Newchurch will slip through. They're certainly not in the top 40 footballers. Do we say no to someone that we rate higher at 38 to maintain our matching option?

One additional positive - if we don't pick at 40 and the NGAs get through, we can potentially take at least two rookie picks over the next few months. Not in the rookie draft, but by bringing players in for a closer look over summer, and then in the midyear draft.

We're forced to make a pick at 40 (as it stands). Otherwise, we'll be one player short of the minimum requirements on the main list, by the third list lodgement date.

I think you just go for the biggest boom/bust prospect you can find at that point of the draft.

 

[Mutineer]

The big question for me - what do we do with 40 (which current math looks like coming in to 38)?

It looks like maybe 60-40 that Borlase and Newchurch will slip through. They're certainly not in the top 40 footballers. Do we say no to someone that we rate higher at 38 to maintain our matching option?

One additional positive - if we don't pick at 40 and the NGAs get through, we can potentially take at least two rookie picks over the next few months. Not in the rookie draft, but by bringing players in for a closer look over summer, and then in the midyear draft.

Bring Ayce back?

 

[Mutineer]

It will depend on how important consistency is to Nicks & co. as he bursts into the game(the video highlights show him to be a fierce tackler & has real pace), but then has significant quiet periods I understand. But, he's not the first 18 year old to be inconsistent, is he?!!!

17 year old at the time of those highlights playing against mostly 18 year olds.

 

[zippity doedee]

The big question for me - what do we do with 40 (which current math looks like coming in to 38)?

It looks like maybe 60-40 that Borlase and Newchurch will slip through. They're certainly not in the top 40 footballers. Do we say no to someone that we rate higher at 38 to maintain our matching option?

One additional positive - if we don't pick at 40 and the NGAs get through, we can potentially take at least two rookie picks over the next few months. Not in the rookie draft, but by bringing players in for a closer look over summer, and then in the midyear draft.

Would think we either bundle it with an earlier pick to move slightly up or trade it out for a future pick but it's around the mark where we might struggle to get a future 2nd for it but a future 3rd might be unders.