Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[Brett Cummings]

Sorry, where, as a young KPF, is Himmelberg's goal kicking so much worse than more experienced & high profile forwards ?????

Himmelberg

View attachment 1019839

Cripps

View attachment 1019840

Dangerfield

View attachment 1019841

Charlie Dixon

22

Charlie Dixon

Age

33

Ht

200cm

Wt

110kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.7

3star

K

6.9

3star

HB

4.7

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.6

5star

D

10.5

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.5

2star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.5

2star

G

2.5

5star

D

8.2

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

3.8

3star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

View attachment 1019848

are you seriously calling cripps and dangerfield forwards?

 

[Samcro24]

are you seriously calling cripps and dangerfield forwards?

Dangerfield? Did you watch footy this year?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

are you seriously calling cripps and dangerfield forwards?

Given they rested fwd .....and Danger played almost 50/50 fwd .....their conversion rate, as champions of the game, is relevant compared to a kid of the game

 

[Brett Cummings]

Dangerfield? Did you watch footy this year?

dangerfields permanent position isnt forward. he's a mid that goes forward.

 

[Brett Cummings]

Given they rested fwd .....and Danger played almost 50/50 fwd .....their conversion rate, as champions of the game, is relevant compared to a kid of the game

he's not a kpp so no, its not.

 

[Samcro24]

dangerfields permanent position isnt forward. he's a mid that goes forward.

Yeah, ah this year it was more the opposite

 

[mcattack]

Hipwood and Daniher aren't flash in front of goal.

McAdam wasnt too flash in front of goal w set shots. Without checking stats he had a few clangers.

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

Ablett and Lockett say hello and Modra seemed ok when it sat on top of his head as he sat on his opponents shoulders.
Carey didn't have many issues either

Nope. They all got some pretty good delivery in their time. None of them would have been as good as they were if they had to deal with ball use our team had this year. Being able to take the occasional pack mark doesn’t change that. It’s not sustainable.

 

[Brett Cummings]

Yeah, ah this year it was more the opposite

he's 30 mate. most mids will play more in different positions towards the end of their career.

 

[Samcro24]

he's 30 mate. most mids will play more in different positions towards the end of their career.

So which is it?

A mid that goes forward, or a midfielder that plays midfield?

Plenty of mids that still play in the guts at 30.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

So are we going to pick JUH at #1 despite knowing the Bulldogs will match? Not bidding on him or the other academy players when available just because someone will match it just seems like giving them a free hit to me. Particularly with JUH, I don't buy the whole 'they'll match so we won't bother' line.

We have a history of bidding on players... so I'm confident that will continue... based on our talent order.

 

[Cockwomble]

Been following all the comments IMO we really need a great midfielder, this bull sh&@ about getting best available is the most stupid thing, we NEED a really good midfielder, I’m not clever enough to know who is the best, but if we get a tall forward who can ruck I’ll loose my sh@&

 

[GROTTO]

McAdam wasnt too flash in front of goal w set shots. Without checking stats he had a few clangers.

The AFL accuracy for goal kicking in 2020 was well down for this year.

Surprisingly Hamburger Hawkins had one of the best conversions before the Port final.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

maybe danhiher. havent seen much of hipwood.

You clearly haven't seen much football full stop!

 

[Brett Cummings]

So which is it?

A mid that goes forward, or a midfielder that plays midfield?

Plenty of mids that still play in the guts at 30.

what will dangerfield be looked at when his career ends? a midfielder or a forward? com on dude. this is getting ridiculous.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Dangerfield? Did you watch footy this year?

No, he has already admitted he doesn't.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

what will dangerfield be looked at when his career ends? a midfielder or a forward? com on dude. this is getting ridiculous.

Both... If you actually watched games...

 

[Brett Cummings]

You clearly haven't seen much football full stop!

says the guys that says stats, stats, stats.

I dont need stats to know if someone is a good set shot or not.

hawkins and walker have a similar percentage when it comes to set shots and walker is the better kick by a mile.

 

[GROTTO]

Have you the OP poster on "ignore" .....that'll explain it

Can you put a Mod on ignore?

IIRC ironically they cant place a poster on ignore?

 

[Brett Cummings]

Both... If you actually watched games...

yeah, ive now accepted you're completely delusional.

 

[Golumless]

he's one of the worst set shot ive seen mate.

And yet, results indicate differently, and results are all that matters when it comes to set shots. 41% is below average, so I'll correct my league average comment (and interestingly, Himmelberg is actually rather good in general play at converting goals, to the contrary of one of the major complaints), but its certainly a fascinating below average.

There is certainly a skew with Himmelbergs history of set shots, though that in itself could just be a result of a low sample size (and history is below). If you were to draw a line from the middle of the goal square outwards, Himmelberg is very reliable on the right side of the that line, at 71.1%, 100% on that line, and a pitiful 8% on the left of the goal. The inner stats nerd in me is excited at that.

what forward is worse than himmelberg at set shots? name one.

Just using the lineups from round 16 this year (now, we do need to note, these stats only go back to the start of 2018), with anyone selected in the forward 6 being included in this. Round 16 was picked at random, and I'm just using a random round of lineups as both a fair representation of who was playing as a forward in 2020, as well as a way to minimise how much effort I needed to put into this (Also, 1 set shot minimum is needed to get on this list, so no, Jake Kelly

29

Jake Kelly

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

157.8

2star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

104.1

2star

D

14.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.2

5star

MG

107.0

2star

is not included).

Elliot Himmelberg is at a 3-year average of 41%

Worse:
Josh Walker (North): 36%
Johnathan Marsh (Saints): 38%
Harry Morrison

1

Harry Morrison

Age

25

Ht

184cm

Wt

79kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.1

4star

K

8.5

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

4.3

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

0.9

3star

D

13.4

3star

K

9.8

4star

HB

3.6

2star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.6

3star

CL

0.8

3star

D

18.4

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.0

5star

M

5.4

5star

T

2.2

4star

CL

2.0

4star

(Hawks): 33%
Luke Dalhaus (Cats): 28%
Brayden Preuss (Demons): 33%
Kysaiah Pickett

36

Kysaiah Pickett

Age

22

Ht

171cm

Wt

73kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.0

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

3.3

3star

M

0.7

1star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.7

2star

HB

3.3

2star

M

0.7

1star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.8

2star

HB

3.2

3star

M

0.8

1star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.8

4star

(Demons): 17%
Minario Frederick (Fremantle): 29%
Tyson Stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

25

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

(Adelaide): 40%
Hugh Mccluggage

6

Hugh Mccluggage

Age

26

Ht

185cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.3

5star

K

11.4

4star

HB

7.9

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.2

4star

D

19.0

4star

K

12.0

5star

HB

7.0

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.9

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.6

3star

(Brisbane): 32%
Noah Anderson

15

Noah Anderson

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.0

2star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

3star

HB

6.0

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

0.0

1star

CL

0.0

1star

(Gold Coast): 25%
Izak Rankine

23

Izak Rankine

Age

24

Ht

181cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

13.0

3star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

4star

G

2.0

5star

D

13.0

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.7

5star

G

2.0

5star

(Gold Coast): 38%

Equal:
Dan Butler (Saints): 41%
Toby McLean

16

Toby Mclean

Age

28

Ht

181cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.7

5star

K

9.0

3star

HB

10.7

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

2.4

4star

D

15.5

4star

K

6.5

3star

HB

9.0

4star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.5

4star

CL

2.0

4star

D

16.8

4star

K

8.2

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

5.0

5star

T

1.8

4star

CL

0.8

3star

(Dogs): 41%

Now, it's worth noting a lot of them are on the younger side (and at a similar amount of games played as Himmelberg), so it's worth expecting that goal kicking average increases with age and a lot of these players (Himmelberg included) will likely be operating at a better click, or out of the league in 3-5 years.

It's also worth noting, and this was to my surprise going through this numbers, it's much more unlikely for a player to convert a shot in general play then it is in a set shot.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Can you put a Mod on ignore?

IIRC ironically they cant place a poster on ignore?

No you can't

 

[dogs105]

says the guys that says stats, stats, stats.

I dont need stats to know if someone is a good set shot or not.

hawkins and walker have a similar percentage when it comes to set shots and walker is the better kick by a mile.

Isn’t the result the important thing with set shots?

Rather have 60.2% than 60.1% who looks pretty

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

yeah, ive now accepted you're completely delusional.

Lol, you do realise Dangerfield played many games mainly as a forward this year... including a key final Scott was criticised for losing because he left Danger up forward.

How about you just piss off & watch the players in question rather than polluting this board with pure BS like it is a fact.

 

[GROTTO]

are you seriously calling cripps and dangerfield forwards?

Dangerfield? Did you watch footy this year?

Danger was ALL AUSTRALIAN Half forward 2020.