Opinion 2020 Draft #2: 1/9/22/23/40/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, Haw 4th, Freo 4th)

[Deaneus!]

KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.​

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Don’t be surprised if they take a tall like Cox

Not too early for Cox ? .....Perkins maybe ?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Add Stengle to this list ....hoping the 4 week ban doesn't impact his fitness focus

He looked excellent when played in the midfield in spurts .....has better attributes for midfield even over Laird, with his evasiveness in small confined areas elite

A fitter McAdam has been my biggest wish all off-season

View attachment 1020193

I can’t see it in Stengle .... it could be the off field stuff but I just don’t think he will get there

 

[ad victoriam]

And yet, results indicate differently, and results are all that matters when it comes to set shots. 41% is below average, so I'll correct my league average comment (and interestingly, Himmelberg is actually rather good in general play at converting goals, to the contrary of one of the major complaints), but its certainly a fascinating below average.

There is certainly a skew with Himmelbergs history of set shots, though that in itself could just be a result of a low sample size (and history is below). If you were to draw a line from the middle of the goal square outwards, Himmelberg is very reliable on the right side of the that line, at 71.1%, 100% on that line, and a pitiful 8% on the left of the goal. The inner stats nerd in me is excited at that.


View attachment 1019844

Any chance you can bring up the Adelaide Oval accurate rates from all side and Both Ends,

 

[Murray2503]

I just listened to that WA podcast & they suggested Essendon could trade Picks 6 & 7 with North's Pick 2 because they are desperate to replace Daniher. It's a shame that predictions are that Phillips will go to GC when they really don't need him - they have 13 midfielders & will add Alex Davies to that glut!!

Sounds like Essendon are after McDonald. How about we do a deal (1 for 3 and 2021/2nd) with Swans to make sure McDonald doesn't go to Essendon (if we aren't interested in McDonald and Swans are that is).

I would wait until Essendon and North do the pick exchange and then completely screw them up. Swans take McDonald at 1. Essendon would then likely take Thilthorpe at 2 leaving Phillips(if flight risk then take Hollands) for us at 3. We likely wouldn't even need to trade down 9 to get Cox as Essendon aren't taking Thilthorpe and Cox. The only worry is would Hawthorn or GC take Cox at 4 or 5. Worse case Essendon take Cox at 2 and we take Thilthorpe at 9(as long as Hawthorn and GC don't take TT at 4 and 5). The other bonus is that we gain a extra 2021/2nd(likely pick 22ish from swans).

* If Phillips is viewed as a significant flight risk change our pick 3 to Hollands. Before doing this deal I would need to find out whether GC and Hawks are taking Thilthorpe or Cox with their picks if they got the chance.

*Upon reflection Essendon likely wouldn't do the trade until after our pick 1 selection. I presume they are hoping we take TT if they are into McDonsld. If we took TT at 1 what would North do in this scenario? Take McDonsld or trade him essentially to Essendon for pick 6,7. I think they would trade pick 2 for 6,7.

That's why I think it's important we trade our pick 1 out if we aren't taking McDonald at 1. If Swans want him let's do a pick exchange that benefits both clubs. Once McDonald is off the table then Essendon may even offer us a deal for pick 3 we can't refuse.

The other option if we aren't taking McDonald is that we play Sydney, Essendon, North all off against one another (assuming they all want McDonald) in giving us the best deal to trade our pick 1 to gain McDonald. Likely it would just come down to Swans and North that could satisfy us. The dumb thing to do is just take TT at 1 when without leveraging the value of pick 1 to a club that desperately wants McDonald.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Not too early for Cox ? .....Perkins maybe ?

Too early for Cox in media land but clubs think differently

GC is a club that can afford to look for balance in their list with their draft picks given their concessions

so they get Davies who is a local and 1st round talent as a mid and Jeffrey who is an outside mid / flanker early 2nd round type of level

I’m thinking they want another tall to play forward or back and can afford to take a risk on long term potential

who’s to say cox isn’t the best tall in the draft either long term

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I can’t see it in Stengle .... it could be the off field stuff but I just don’t think he will get there

I can Jeff .....time for Jackson to earn his pay, and I believe in Nicks influence

 

[GrommoT]

I can't understand why Braeden Campbell is not rated highest than a top ten pick, his game in the futures was outstanding.

I can't help wonder if he is firmly in the mix for our pick 1.

Listening to Kinnear, he seemed bothered that Academy kids were being picked early, and made the point that he was valued much lower than Sydney's first pick.

I wonder if we have told Sydney we will be bidding on Campbell, and have offered a trade - same deal as GWS last year - so they can get ahead of our bid, now at pick 3.

If they don't trade, we get Campbell, goal kicking line breaking midfielder ready for round 1.

On Pixel 3 using BigFooty.com mobile app

If we have no deals in place, hopefully we bid JUH (at 1) and Campbell at 2 ... it seems almost reasonable to get away with it and causes max carnage. ∀FL

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Too early for Cox in media land but clubs think differently

GC is a club that can afford to look for balance in their list with their draft picks given their concessions

so they get Davies who is a local and 1st round talent as a mid and Jeffrey who is an outside mid / flanker early 2nd round type of level

I’m thinking they want another tall to play forward or back and can afford to take a risk on long term potential

who’s to say cox isn’t the best tall in the draft either long term

And myself in my post 6 weeks ago ....early call coming to fruition

 

[ad victoriam]

My opinion only, I am thinking when all things are equal then the needs of the team come into play,
and to me that gives Hollands the edge,
Crows need a Midfield, and Midfield depth if we want to be competive

 

[Mego Red]

I just listened to that WA podcast & they suggested Essendon could trade Picks 6 & 7 with North's Pick 2 because they are desperate to replace Daniher. It's a shame that predictions are that Phillips will go to GC when they really don't need him - they have 13 midfielders & will add Alex Davies to that glut!!

GCS just need premium midfielders.

They probably have a few too many B- mids, and they need more possible A+.

 

[Mutineer]

I can Jeff .....time for Jackson to earn his pay, and I believe in Nicks influence

Jackson?

 

[craig crowing]

I'm a massive Bowey fan.

Not sure what I'd want the club to do if Bowey and Durdin are both there at 23.

Finally talk about Bowey as after watching replay of All Stars game could not believe Bowey not mentioned by most of draft experts and BF posters as being close to top 30- 40 as impressed . If taking Hollands as my wish with our 1st pick wonder if by picking Callow and Baldwin with our 20s could lead to adding a KPF to our ranks to cover Tex etc. When is Baldwin expected to be ready for selection after last injury.

 

[Mego Red]

I don’t reckon GC will take Phillips

I'm almost certain they will.

Phillips is the third musketeer from last year's TAC premiers, with Rowell and Anderson. He arrives to play with his close mates, and adds a lot of what they need.

Reading over their list, it seems almost essential. Their mids are an issue, as the previous generation of draftees (Bowes, Ainsworth, Scrimshaw, Brodie) haven't given them any true A list mids, and the senior mids - Miller, Greenwood, Ellis, Weller - all are best as support staff, not prime players.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Jackson?

Former Richmond player Daniel Jackson has been appointed to the role of Adelaide's Leadership Development Manager.

 

[Disco Fox]

I don’t reckon GC will take Phillips

Not that we care too much, but any ideas as to who they might select?

 

[robboaustralia]

Only looking at those highlight packages on you tube I have to personally go:

1) Thilthorpe
2) Hollands
3) McDonald

Thilthorpe can clunk them bigtime. Has a massive presence. Reminds me Essendons Paul Salmon back in the day.

Would be happy with Hollands number 1 though. Mid/fwd who can win you games/premierships? Seems to have confidence about him too which I like. Possible Dusty like traits as some have previously hoped for.

My gut feel with McDonald is bit Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

/Jack Lukocious like. Prob end up a decent player though and will back the club if they think he is best for our top pick.

Questions.....

If we are chasing Rankine do we need Hollands as a fwd?

If we are chasing Lukocious do we need McDonald or Thilthorpe?

Club must have a plan in place and know exactly who they want pick 1.

BTW I am.no expert. These are just my thoughts.

 

[Murray2503]

Not that we care too much, but any ideas as to who they might select?

The concern would be if they are after a replacement for King meaning they would be into TT or Cox. Obviously we can choose TT or Cox for that matter but the concern would be if we tried to get a premium mid at 1 in Phillips/Hollands and tried to also get a KPF with pick 9 as well.

 

[Murray2503]

Only looking at those highlight packages on you tube I have to personally go:

1) Thilthorpe
2) Hollands
3) McDonald

Thilthorpe can clunk them bigtime. Has a massive presence. Reminds me Essendons Paul Salmon back in the day.

Would be happy with Hollands number 1 though. Mid/fwd who can win you games/premierships? Seems to have confidence about him too which I like. Possible Dusty like traits as some have previously hoped for.

My gut feel with McDonald is bit Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

/Jack Lukocious like. Prob end up a decent player though and will back the club if they think he is best for our top pick.

Questions.....

If we are chasing Rankine do we need Hollands as a fwd?

If we are chasing Lukocious do we need McDonald or Thilthorpe?

Club must have a plan in place and know exactly who they want pick 1.

BTW I am.no expert. These are just my thoughts.

I wouldn't mind Hollands and Rankine. The more elite players the better. Luko is a completely different player to TT and McDonald. Luko is more a third tall flanker from what I've seen.

 

[Mutineer]

Only looking at those highlight packages on you tube I have to personally go:

1) Thilthorpe
2) Hollands
3) McDonald

Thilthorpe can clunk them bigtime. Has a massive presence. Reminds me Essendons Paul Salmon back in the day.

Would be happy with Hollands number 1 though. Mid/fwd who can win you games/premierships? Seems to have confidence about him too which I like. Possible Dusty like traits as some have previously hoped for.

My gut feel with McDonald is bit Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

/Jack Lukocious like. Prob end up a decent player though and will back the club if they think he is best for our top pick.

Questions.....

If we are chasing Rankine do we need Hollands as a fwd?

If we are chasing Lukocious do we need McDonald or Thilthorpe?

Club must have a plan in place and know exactly who they want pick 1.

BTW I am.no expert. These are just my thoughts.

My question to you is have either Rankine or Lukosius given even a slight hint they are unhappy at the GCS?
Neither had any hesitation in inking a new contract that I'm aware of?

 

[Danger Zone]

I actually see GC taking DGB if he slips to their pick. I'm not sure he is an absolute lock for Sydney as has been suggested.

 

[Murray2503]

I actually see GC taking DGB if he slips to their pick. I'm not sure he is an absolute lock for Sydney as has been suggested.

DGB also mentioned Hawthorn in an interview had shown quite a bit of interest.

 

[Atypical7]

Not too early for Cox ? .....Perkins maybe ?

Highly likely

 

[mcattack]

Surprising how a little taste of AFL followed by some competition for a vacant spot does improve a player,
Personal opinion I did not believe he worked hard enough in 2018, but that taste in 2018 followed by Frampton signing, I believe change him,
in 2019 he seems to have more gas in the tank. and more confidence.
If Himmelberg increase's his tank even further, does not matter if we get Thilthorpe or McDonald they would be Lucky to get a game in front of him,

Thats the thing isnt it. We have pick 1. If we pick a kf who can ruck (unless we are holding him back for a year due to groins / development) you play him - hype and development everyone will push for it. IMO It will always be Berg vs TT unless we trade Berg.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Only looking at those highlight packages on you tube I have to personally go:

1) Thilthorpe
2) Hollands
3) McDonald

Thilthorpe can clunk them bigtime. Has a massive presence. Reminds me Essendons Paul Salmon back in the day.

Would be happy with Hollands number 1 though. Mid/fwd who can win you games/premierships? Seems to have confidence about him too which I like. Possible Dusty like traits as some have previously hoped for.

My gut feel with McDonald is bit Jack Gunston

19

Jack Gunston

Age

32

Ht

193cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

10.5

4star

HB

5.0

4star

M

5.7

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.9

5star

D

10.6

3star

K

8.0

3star

HB

2.6

2star

M

4.3

4star

T

1.7

3star

G

1.6

5star

D

11.2

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

4.2

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

0.6

3star

/Jack Lukocious like. Prob end up a decent player though and will back the club if they think he is best for our top pick.

Questions.....

If we are chasing Rankine do we need Hollands as a fwd?

If we are chasing Lukocious do we need McDonald or Thilthorpe?

Club must have a plan in place and know exactly who they want pick 1.

BTW I am.no expert. These are just my thoughts.

My answer to your questions toward the end would be you can never have too many good players and yes they would compliment each other

 

[Disco Fox]

The concern would be if they are after a replacement for King meaning they would be into TT or Cox. Obviously we can choose TT or Cox for that matter but the concern would be if we tried to get a premium mid at 1 in Phillips/Hollands and tried to also get a KPF with pick 9 as well.

Yes & whilst this coming week will produce many phantom drafts, those that have "had a bash" so far tend to lean towards Crows taking either RT or LMcD & those chaps from WA summed it up in arguing that the Crows need real talent in different areas,but this is a KP draft(at the top end, at least) &, in their opinion, there are plenty of mids in the 10-25 range who have real potential. Having said that, the fact that those "experts" are not unanimous just shows that it is a difficult choice, but all are very talented lads.