List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[SGBeach]

I agree with Mase.
By the end of it we will have 2 top 5 picks plus two academy boys..

We have a lot of youth that we all want to get games into.. McInerney, Rowbum, Blakey, Stephens, Gould, Warner, (Taylor?), Wicks, Ronke, Ling, Armartey, Bell, O'Connor, p3, Campbell, Gulden. Most of these players will still be a Swan 5 years from now.. but, we can't play them all as we need experience in the best22.
We saw what happened with GWS this trade - Hately & Caldwell weren't getting a game and left, What a waste of 2 first round picks.
Gold coast may face something similar as they have a few first round picks not getting a game.
These kids want to play!

I cant see us trading out our future first for the Suns p5 for the reason that we already have enough (quality) competition for the spots available for the inexperienced youth.
I can see us trading our future 1st next year for a player (if the right player is available) to fill a hole?

List sizes and the structure of the AFL in general may well change again next year. Keeping our future first allows us flexibility to change with the AFL.
In an ideal world, no bid comes for Campbell until the early teens, meaning we could try and trade out our current p34 or p37 for a future pick to strengthen next years draft hand.

 

[SGBeach]

The Gold Coast King twin did as well, and he looks very very promising as a forward.

Loving McCartins work.. He's a good enough defender to play on some very good opposition forwards. Thats invaluable to his development in learning leading patterns and bodywork etc. So while he's playing in defence, He's learning both forward and defensive craft
Where will he be 2-3 years from now? only time will tell, but he's setting himself up well

 

[Bear31]

We have a lot of youth that we all want to get games into.. McInerney, Rowbum, Blakey, Stephens, Gould, Warner, (Taylor?), Wicks, Ronke, Ling, Armartey, Bell, O'Connor, p3, Campbell, Gulden. Most of these players will still be a Swan 5 years from now.. but, we can't play them all as we need experience in the best22.
We saw what happened with GWS this trade - Hately & Caldwell weren't getting a game and left, What a waste of 2 first round picks.
Gold coast may face something similar as they have a few first round picks not getting a game.
These kids want to play!

I cant see us trading out our future first for the Suns p5 for the reason that we already have enough (quality) competition for the spots available for the inexperienced youth.
I can see us trading our future 1st next year for a player (if the right player is available) to fill a hole?

List sizes and the structure of the AFL in general may well change again next year. Keeping our future first allows us flexibility to change with the AFL.
In an ideal world, no bid comes for Campbell until the early teens, meaning we could try and trade out our current p34 or p37 for a future pick to strengthen next years draft hand.

You always make sense.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

We have a lot of youth that we all want to get games into.. McInerney, Rowbum, Blakey, Stephens, Gould, Warner, (Taylor?), Wicks, Ronke, Ling, Armartey, Bell, O'Connor, p3, Campbell, Gulden. Most of these players will still be a Swan 5 years from now.. but, we can't play them all as we need experience in the best22.
We saw what happened with GWS this trade - Hately & Caldwell weren't getting a game and left, What a waste of 2 first round picks.
Gold coast may face something similar as they have a few first round picks not getting a game.
These kids want to play!

I cant see us trading out our future first for the Suns p5 for the reason that we already have enough (quality) competition for the spots available for the inexperienced youth.
I can see us trading our future 1st next year for a player (if the right player is available) to fill a hole?

List sizes and the structure of the AFL in general may well change again next year. Keeping our future first allows us flexibility to change with the AFL.
In an ideal world, no bid comes for Campbell until the early teens, meaning we could try and trade out our current p34 or p37 for a future pick to strengthen next years draft hand.

Essendon will bid on Campbell.

 

[Dubai Quacker]

We have a lot of youth that we all want to get games into.. McInerney, Rowbum, Blakey, Stephens, Gould, Warner, (Taylor?), Wicks, Ronke, Ling, Armartey, Bell, O'Connor, p3, Campbell, Gulden. Most of these players will still be a Swan 5 years from now.. but, we can't play them all as we need experience in the best22.
We saw what happened with GWS this trade - Hately & Caldwell weren't getting a game and left, What a waste of 2 first round picks.
Gold coast may face something similar as they have a few first round picks not getting a game.
These kids want to play!

I cant see us trading out our future first for the Suns p5 for the reason that we already have enough (quality) competition for the spots available for the inexperienced youth.
I can see us trading our future 1st next year for a player (if the right player is available) to fill a hole?

List sizes and the structure of the AFL in general may well change again next year. Keeping our future first allows us flexibility to change with the AFL.
In an ideal world, no bid comes for Campbell until the early teens, meaning we could try and trade out our current p34 or p37 for a future pick to strengthen next years draft hand.

I don’t quite agree with your “most will still be a Swan in 5 years” statement. 5 years is a long time in AFL list terms.

In fact, of the 16 you’ve listed, I’d predict that only Rowbottom, McI, Blakey, Stephens, P3, Campbell will still be on the list in 5 years (with maybe Gulden & Gould, and Ling an outside chance).

History shows that most draftees are de-listed within 4-5 years.

 

[TheMase]

Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

has made a successful conversion forward. But it would make more sense for McT to continue his development as a KPF. His set shot has improved out of sight and he's always had good hands.

He would be an adequate forward but at best he would be a 2nd or 3rd tall. He just doesn’t command the space (and demand the space) to build a forward line around. Put short he doesn’t have the dominant key forward “aura” about him.

However, he certainly has the capacity to be a number one key defender. He is a very smart footballer and can use his smarts to outwit his opponent with his opponent effectively dictating the ball coming his way.

 

[RUNVS]

He would be an adequate forward but at best he would be a 2nd or 3rd tall. He just doesn’t command the space (end demand the slave) to build a forward line around. Put short he doesn’t have the dominant key forward “aura” about him.

However, he certainly has the capacity to be a number one key defender. He is a very smart footballer and can use his smarts to outwit his opponent with his opponent effectively dictating the ball coming his way.

Reading this I was trying to decide if you were talking about Naughton, DGB or McCartin

 

[SGBeach]

I don’t quite agree with your “most will still be a Swan in 5 years” statement. 5 years is a long time in AFL list terms.

In fact, of the 16 you’ve listed, I’d predict that only Rowbottom, McI, Blakey, Stephens, P3, Campbell will still be on the list in 5 years (with maybe Gulden & Gould, and Ling an outside chance).

History shows that most draftees are de-listed within 4-5 years.

fair enough.. my point was that it seems the goal for our current list strategy is to keep this young list together.
eg.. We gave Amartey another year, not because he fills a need for 2021, but because he could potentially fill a need 2-3-4 years from now.. theres a few others in that boat too. Not saying they'll all make it, but the Swans will be hoping they do, or at least give them the chance

 

[mikey_san]

Thinking about getting Denver Grainger-Barras. He would be a third tall with McCartin and Melican. Maybe this releases Rampe to be a rebounding defender. I have always wanted to see Rampe with the freedom to run the field. With his long kick I can see him getting long goals and causing havoc.

Is he getting too old for that now? Might not have the speed needed to fill that spot.

 

[mikey_san]

Aaron Naughton

33

Aaron Naughton

Age

24

Ht

196cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.9

5star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.8

4star

D

6.3

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.3

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

0.8

1star

G

0.5

4star

D

12.8

4star

K

8.8

4star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

0.0

1star

has made a successful conversion forward. But it would make more sense for McT to continue his development as a KPF. His set shot has improved out of sight and he's always had good hands.

McCartin has looked adequate as a developing KPF - he's looked sensational as a developing KPD over the back third of the year.
I know where I'd be keeping him.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

McCartin has looked adequate as a developing KPF - he's looked sensational as a developing KPD over the back third of the year.
I know where I'd be keeping him.

I agree. Like him as a defender. But if we draft DGB, it may well be that the club prefers him as a forward given how thinly stretched we are for KPFs.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Essendon will bid on Campbell.

Agree.
Hawks can pick up a midfielder or possibly a tall without bothering to bid on Campbell. They know we would match. Reckon GC want Phillips to go with his older mates if he's still there or DGB to boost their defence.
Hopefully we bid on JUH to push our pick cost down.
Campbell would be a good addition to the Bummers so to me it's only a question of which pick they bid at.

 

[Wheresbuddy]

Agree.
Hawks can pick up a midfielder or possibly a tall without bothering to bid on Campbell. They know we would match. Reckon GC want Phillips to go with his older mates if he's still there or DGB to boost their defence.
Hopefully we bid on JUH to push our pick cost down.
Campbell would be a good addition to the Bummers so to me it's only a question of which pick they bid at.

KB has already indicated we're bidding on JUH. Only fair given of all player types (and his overall quality) he's exactly what we need. Just unfortunate that we're no chance to get him.

 

[Bear31]

Agree.
Hawks can pick up a midfielder or possibly a tall without bothering to bid on Campbell. They know we would match. Reckon GC want Phillips to go with his older mates if he's still there or DGB to boost their defence.
Hopefully we bid on JUH to push our pick cost down.
Campbell would be a good addition to the Bummers so to me it's only a question of which pick they bid at.

We can worry about the forwards next year

 

[TheMase]

We can worry about the forwards next year

Isn’t next year more a midfielders draft though (who also tend to come on faster than KPP)?

 

[caesar88]

Really? Everyone sees things differently and I view the bulldogs as the complete opposite. They show you can have the best midfield in the world but if your spine is garbage/non existent you'll never be anything but a pretender. The flukey as hell flag masks a lot and even then it only happened because a few KP players pulled their fingers out of their ass for a month.
They've been in no mans land Beverage's tenure...despite having that midfield...7th is literally their best finish at the end of a H & A season....they're definitely not a club to be trying to replicate as far as list management strategy goes.

I think our KP stocks are a far bigger sh*t show than our midfield, which at least has some prospects to work with/around, but as for our spine besides McCartin and Melican there's nothing long term of any quality at all. Blakey is a midfielder himself, and McLean shows bits here and there but still less likely than likely for mine.

Did I say the Bulldogs were a flag contender?

I believe I said a finals contender (true), a competitive team (true) and a destination club for trade targets (true - even if aided by the obvious advantage of being a Victorian club.)

If we can get ourselves to that point, then it becomes easier to trade for a quality key forward. We will never get to that point if we don't improve our midfield. It will be a case of being a bottom four team every year and wondering why we aren't trading in any big names. Fun!

However whether you think that is the case or not depends entirely on how you rate our midfield stocks. You think it's OK, I think it's shite.

 

[mikey_san]

Did I say the Bulldogs were a flag contender?

I believe I said a finals contender (true), a competitive team (true) and a destination club for trade targets (true - even if aided by the obvious advantage of being a Victorian club.)

If we can get ourselves to that point, then it becomes easier to trade for a quality key forward. We will never get to that point if we don't improve our midfield. It will be a case of being a bottom four team every year and wondering why we aren't trading in any big names. Fun!

However whether you think that is the case or not depends entirely on how you rate our midfield stocks. You think it's OK, I think it's sh*te.

While I agree and also want Phillips - an alternate path might be (being planned); Thillthorpe (as a forward) this year, 500k less on Buddy next year, Gray off the books = a bid on a Dogs mid like Macrae/Bont. We'll also be in a better position to have seen how Gulden and Campbell go against senior opposition.
Gulden will either be the next Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

, or a bust as he's not quite quick enough, nor big enough according to the internet. Only way to find out is to roll the dice I guess - and if Phillips came in, surely Gulden wouldn't get a look in unless major injuries struck the midfield.

 

[BloodySwan]

I think it’s a chance of happening.
I think Essendon is a real target with 3 in a row. But Gold Coast also a chance as they need to give chances to the kids they’ve got already.

Suns are going into the draft with 1 live pick. I find it very strange that they haven't traded pick 27 out already. Feels like their either:
-Holding out for a good deal
-Already agreed to a trade with a club but it'll only happen after that club has matched.

 

[caesar88]

While I agree and also want Phillips - an alternate path might be (being planned); Thillthorpe (as a forward) this year, 500k less on Buddy next year, Gray off the books = a bid on a Dogs mid like Macrae/Bont. We'll also be in a better position to have seen how Gulden and Campbell go against senior opposition.
Gulden will either be the next Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

30

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

, or a bust as he's not quite quick enough, nor big enough according to the internet. Only way to find out is to roll the dice I guess - and if Phillips came in, surely Gulden wouldn't get a look in unless major injuries struck the midfield.

Campbell and Gulden are both quality. They will never be full-time midfielders.

 

[Wolfgang West]

How he has made it to four years on an AFL list is beyond me.

Just remember what list he is on. Just think of all the decisions the Club has made that has you scratching your head. Then and only Then will you gain solace. Make peace with it. You follow the Harley-Gardiner-Longmire Led Swans.

 

[caesar88]

Just remember what list he is on. Just think of all the decisions the Club has made that has you scratching your head. Then and only Then will you gain solace. Make peace with it. You follow the Harley-Gardiner-Longmire Led Swans.

The list of head-scratching decisions are growing, no doubt. But I think using Harley-Gardiner-Longmire as a negative connotation is a bit unfair.

Doing an imperfect job of navigating a difficult phase with our list doesn't quite warrant it IMO. If we become a rabble then fair enough they should cop it.

 

[Angry Red Bull]

Campbell and Gulden are both quality. They will never be full-time midfielders.

I think Gulden is a chance to be full time mid.

 

[caesar88]

I think Gulden is a chance to be full time mid.

I can't see it. I would like that to be the case, and folks on here have rightly observed that he has a good tank and can accumulate and win contested balls - which points to midfield time. They neglect to mention his manic pressure and great goal sense, while also dismissing his height - all attributes that I think will see him spend a lot of time as a small forward inside 50.

Worth noting that guys like Dawson and Heeney had 'midfielder' written all over them as juniors, but when they got to the highest level, their strengths leant themselves to other roles and positions. This is exactly what I think will happen with Gulden, and Campbell for that matter. Their strengths will be so needed in other areas, that for them to be playing full matches on the ball would almost be a waste of what they can offer.

And if I know Horse like I think I know Horse, he will think the same.

 

[Kiama Chris]

I think Gulden is a chance to be full time mid.

The other guy who might ultimately find a home in the mids is Wicks. He played there most of 2019 in the ressies and did OK. If it has a ball he tackles it. So defensively strong.

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

McCartin has looked adequate as a developing KPF - he's looked sensational as a developing KPD over the back third of the year.
I know where I'd be keeping him.

This is precisely the Mills (back) Heeney (forward) argument. Or now the Rampe loose player argument.