List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

[LukeParkerno1]

Lp1 the player in question just had 23 disposals at 70% efficiency, what is there not to like?

You mean apart from the fact he's a panic merchant with very little awareness? I'm sorry I don't rate him. He's just a tall Ryan Clarke...and you know how much I rate Clarke!

There's better options, Constable if he's the same price is miles better.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Their % of 55 suggests they are pretty awful.

We arent that bad but the reality is without buddy, jpk, a ruck and a KPD... We have serious deficiencies. And these wont be solved anytime soon...

I think even Adelaide would of scraped across the line tonight with Collingwood having 1 rotation on the bench.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Its a lot of wishing and hoping.

It's a rebuild...Rome wasn't built in a day, neither is an entire AFL list.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Did u watch Rankine tonight.
Hes on another planet.

Rankine will be better than Rowell.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

I think even Adelaide would of scraped across the line tonight with Collingwood having 1 rotation on the bench.

Did you see them against North and Melbourne?

I highly doubt they win in fact they wouldn't have got within 7 goals!

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Rankine will be better than Rowell.

Possibly...

That is why you DON'T trade top 2 picks. Right now they very rarely miss (lately)

 

[Olian]

I think even Adelaide would of scraped across the line tonight with Collingwood having 1 rotation on the bench.

Adelaide were within 12 points of Melbourne at three quarter time and still managed to lose by 50. They don’t scrap. They head for the showers early.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

It's a rebuild...Rome wasn't built in a day, neither is an entire AFL list.

Im well aware its a rebuild

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Im well aware its a rebuild

That is why I'm a fan of heading to the draft, not taking short cuts. Take the best ELITE talents. We will get there, if that means a year or two in the bottom 2-3 so be it. Will make the time at the top even better

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Possibly...

That is why you DON'T trade top 2 picks. Right now they very rarely miss (lately)

Noah Anderson has been totally overshadowed by Rowell and Rankine.

 

[wills2g]

That is why I'm a fan of heading to the draft, not taking short cuts. Take the best ELITE talents. We will get there, if that means a year or two in the bottom 2-3 so be it. Will make the time at the top even better

what went wrong with carlton, melbourne, gc, lions?

 

[brad cooper]

what went wrong with carlton, melbourne, gc, lions?

They didn't have LP1 in charge of their recruitment department

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Noah Anderson has been totally overshadowed by Rowell and Rankine.

Anderson has been good. Rankine wasn't in the same draft- he went pick 1 for a reason.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

what went wrong with carlton, melbourne, gc, lions?

Lions made finals last year and look decent this year (need a key forward). The others have taken too long but they butchered early picks. It's why that's critical- you need to get top 5 picks right.

 

[Olian]

That is why I'm a fan of heading to the draft, not taking short cuts. Take the best ELITE talents. We will get there, if that means a year or two in the bottom 2-3 so be it. Will make the time at the top even better

You only get one first round pick that’s “elite”. So the draft alone will never get you back up the ladder. Which is why you need the Sier types to make up the list.

 

[wills2g]

Lions made finals last year and look decent this year (need a key forward). The others have taken too long but they butchered early picks. It's why that's critical- you need to get top 5 picks right.

lions took like 15 years tho? its literally a lottery getting top 5 picks right. yeah u have some control cus u choose, but still a lottery

i hope we get em right but how many more young players do we need

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You only get one first round pick that’s “elite”. So the draft alone will never get you back up the ladder. Which is why you need the Sier types to make up the list.

We are getting 2 this year it's why it's silly to even think about trading our first this year

 

[Olian]

We are getting 2 this year it's why it's silly to even think about trading our first this year

No we aren’t. We have pick 2 at the moment.

 

[Olian]

Noah Anderson has been totally overshadowed by Rowell and Rankine.

The Suns were overshadowed by Rowell.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No we aren’t. We have pick 2 at the moment.

Plus Campbell who is at worst a top 8 pick in an open draft

 

[robbieando]

That is why I'm a fan of heading to the draft, not taking short cuts. Take the best ELITE talents. We will get there, if that means a year or two in the bottom 2-3 so be it. Will make the time at the top even better

Easy thing for an Essendon fan to say. We have been going to the draft for 5 years now, at some point going to the draft becomes pointless if thats all you aim to do. I know I rather the club attempts to win, which is clear they are. I won't settle for what you suggest and set course for losing for years on end, just to serve your draft watching fetish.

This group won't improve with draft picks, it can only improve with proven players in roles that we can't draft successfully such as the ruck or key position players.

Going to the draft with early picks repeatedly has been proven not to be as successful as you make it out to be. In fact it turns out to be more harmful and less successful in the long run the large majority of the time.

 

[RobbieK]

Lp1 the player in question just had 23 disposals at 70% efficiency, what is there not to like?

The reason why Sier has such a high effective disposal rating is because he handballs so much. In 20 games at AFL level he has had more handballs than kicks in all but two games. His usual ratio is about 1 kick for every 2 handballs, which was where it was tonight: 8 kicks, 15 handballs. Most of these handballs are very short range passes in congestion. He might be hitting the target, but they are not often very damaging possessions. They are the kind of possessions that simply shift the pressure from him to a team mate without really going anywhere. I would be interested to see what his disposal efficiency stats are when separated between his kicking and his handballing, but I don't think any publicly available resource would have that.

Could he become the next Josh Kennedy? Maybe. But at this point he is still a fairly limited player.

 

[Olian]

Plus Campbell who is at worst a top 8 pick in an open draft

So Campbell isn’t a top 5 pick. Top 8? Some have him at 19. Who knows.

 

[robbieando]

The reason why Sier has such a high effective disposal rating is because he handballs so much. In 20 games at AFL level he has had more handballs than kicks in all but two games. His usual ratio is about 1 kick for every 2 handballs, which was where it was tonight: 8 kicks, 15 handballs. Most of these handballs are very short range passes in congestion. He might be hitting the target, but they are not often very damaging possessions. They are the kind of possessions that simply shift the pressure from him to a team mate without really going anywhere. I would be interested to see what his disposal efficiency stats are when separated between his kicking and his handballing, but I don't think any publicly available resource would have that.

Could he become the next Josh Kennedy? Maybe. But at this point he is still a fairly limited player.

His kicking efficiency for the season is 45.5% when compared to his career of 55.2%. Disposal efficiency is 77.8% for the season vs 67.7% for his career.

You raise a fair point on his kicking to handball ratio. It seem the more kicks he gets in a match the lower his kicking efficiency is, which is logical. His career metres gained average is 220.3m per match which is average but fair for an inside mid. His centre clearances are above average and his contested possessions rates are elite.

At this stage of his career there is something to work with.

 

[robbieando]

Here are the Career Averages of Sier and Constable to compare against Kennedy and of course each other.

I personally think reading the stats that Sier is the closest to Kennedy and is elite already in some important areas. Constable is a little further behind.