List Mgmt. 2020 Draft and Trade Hypotheticals

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HighReeve

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He wouldn't be as cheap as you think. Was taken very early, and a lot of clubs were after him. Don't see Richmond in any rush to trade someone they are developing for a specific reason. I'm all for trading this year but there has to be a price point and our first pick is completely off the table. Take that pick to the draft.

wtf

I didnt suggest the swans should go for him
I didnt say anything about how cheap he'd be..
Hes clearly expendable.. thats not 'nuts'
Simple enough?
 
wtf

I didnt suggest the swans should go for him
I didnt say anything about how cheap he'd be..
Hes clearly expendable.. thats not 'nuts'
Simple enough?

He's not expendable, at least not unless it's for "significant" overs. Everyone has a price but a young mid when your midfield will need a refresh (next 2 years or so) isn't one you would explore unless it's an offer that is beyond expectations.
 

HighReeve

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McLean is undersized as a ruck.. He and Amartey (both 197cm) are too short to be a first ruck.
Carltons first round pick won't be used to match bids on the academy kids?? It'll be used to trade in a player, (p8ish will get a very good player) maybe an inside mid, maybe a half back.
We'd jump at Pittonet if included in the trade
My logic behind this is Paps may be traded for 2- 3 players,, a Ruck, an Inside mid and a KPD. If we got two of those three positions filled with very good players then we"ll be better in 2021.

Pittonet has been ok.. but you seem to think the blues wouldnt give up an average ruck anyway? and we still have to flip carltons pick to another club to get an actual good player?

Edit, with de koning yeah hes a bit taller could maybe a true ruck but im not sure hes shown anymore likely to make it in the afl than mclean, who is already on the periphery of the team.
 
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HighReeve

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He's not expendable, at least not unless it's for "significant" overs. Everyone has a price but a young mid when your midfield will need a refresh (next 2 years or so) isn't one you would explore unless it's an offer that is beyond expectations.

So, like i said.

You can refresh the mids every year. I dont see the reigning premiers being too concerned about a young mid moving on because cotch is 30. so what, edwards is too. Cant think of any others. They gave up butler for pick 56. we gave pick 56 to the tigers + Jones to get pick 32. i guess thats not really related im just still annoyed. But the tigers will be fine. Maybe they get the next jones, maybe its brodie for pick 44. Maybe north offer them polec, while paying half his salary. It is not nuts to consider ttading a player and this one hasnt even played afl.
 

Tesla Tenet

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Pittonet has been ok.. but you seem to think the blues wouldnt give up an average ruck anyway? and we still have to flip carltons pick to another club to get an actual good player?

Edit, with de koning yeah hes a bit taller could maybe a true ruck but im not sure hes shown anymore likely to make it in the afl than mclean, who is already on the periphery of the team.

I think De Koning showed plenty against NN, in the ruck, at 203cm at 97kg, really athletic and can take a hanger as well. (Last year VFL)

0764364dfd3fdbcd501677eb69ae6faa.jpg


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SGBeach

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Pittonet has been ok.. but you seem to think the blues wouldnt give up an average ruck anyway? and we still have to flip carltons pick to another club to get an actual good player?

Edit, with de koning yeah hes a bit taller could maybe a true ruck but im not sure hes shown anymore likely to make it in the afl than mclean, who is already on the periphery of the team.
Pittonet is doing better than the average Ruck this year. and yep, I think hes worth more to Carlton than De Koning. I don't think they would want to give either up as Kruezer is now 31 - they're probably planning Pittonet (just turned 24, 202cm) and De Koning (just turned 21, 203cm) will be there 1 and 2 rucks for the next 6-7 years after Kruzer

and yes we still have to 'flip' carltons pick for a player. Of course! Its a trade period!! and there's holes in our list that are obvious even to BF posters.

Theres no way we'll trade Paps unless that trade can improve our list. If we get a ruck that can do better than break even at the stoppages (and will be around for 5-6 years) Plus get a very good player (inside mid , KPD that will be around for 5-6 years) .. then we may consider the trade. and who's to say we dont do better than that?
It also means we take pick 3ish to the draft and get the academy kids
 

HighReeve

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Pittonet is doing better than the average Ruck this year. and yep, I think hes worth more to Carlton than De Koning. I don't think they would want to give either up as Kruezer is now 31 - they're probably planning Pittonet (just turned 24, 202cm) and De Koning (just turned 21, 203cm) will be there 1 and 2 rucks for the next 6-7 years after Kruzer

and yes we still have to 'flip' carltons pick for a player. Of course! Its a trade period!! and there's holes in our list that are obvious even to BF posters.

Theres no way we'll trade Paps unless that trade can improve our list. If we get a ruck that can do better than break even at the stoppages (and will be around for 5-6 years) Plus get a very good player (inside mid , KPD that will be around for 5-6 years) .. then we may consider the trade. and who's to say we dont do better than that?
It also means we take pick 3ish to the draft and get the academy kids

Yeah a draft pick and a third year ruck would be a bad outcome.
 

SGBeach

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Yeah a draft pick and a third year ruck would be a bad outcome.
ffs.. its not a 3rd year ruck and a draft pick!,, how about a 5th year ruck that is going better than most other rucks this year + someone like Darcy Moore.. because something like that is what we could get
or.. a ruck, a very good mid and a very good KPD
Im obviously articulating my thoughts terribly, as it seems you've no idea what I'm on about?
 

HighReeve

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I think De Koning showed plenty against NN, in the ruck, at 203cm at 97kg, really athletic and can take a hanger as well. (Last year VFL)

0764364dfd3fdbcd501677eb69ae6faa.jpg


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If were trading for a ruck again someone with 3 games seems a bit speculative. Unusual for a 21 year old to have the capacity to ruck for a season.
 

Swan4Life

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Question for the draft points value geeks:

If we finish bottom 3, and we select a non-academy player with our first pick - would we have enough points in the bank to match first round bids for both Campbell and Gulden? Can we use points from next years draft if required?

If not - would we be able to match a first for Campbell and say a second for Gulden?
 

HighReeve

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ffs.. its not a 3rd year ruck and a draft pick!,, how about a 5th year ruck that is going better than most other rucks this year + someone like Darcy Moore.. because something like that is what we could get
or.. a ruck, a very good mid and a very good KPD
Im obviously articulating my thoughts terribly, as it seems you've no idea what I'm on about?

is the 5th year ruck pittone
ffs.. its not a 3rd year ruck and a draft pick!,, how about a 5th year ruck that is going better than most other rucks this year + someone like Darcy Moore.. because something like that is what we could get
or.. a ruck, a very good mid and a very good KPD
Im obviously articulating my thoughts terribly, as it seems you've no idea what I'm on about?

the fifth year ruck is pittonet? hes been alright.
Quite rare for players to be traded in consecutive years. Backup rucks sometimes. But why would he want to go when hes already in the first team and things have started clicking. Might even find the form hard to regain off a low base.

Moore would be good of course. I hope we dont have to lose papley to finally get some senior quality into the team.
 

Dubai Quacker

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Question for the draft points value geeks:

If we finish bottom 3, and we select a non-academy player with our first pick - would we have enough points in the bank to match first round bids for both Campbell and Gulden? Can we use points from next years draft if required?

If not - would we be able to match a first for Campbell and say a second for Gulden?
Let us assume we finish 16th.

We would then get the following (assuming no compo picks, which is unlikely, but too hard to predict at this stage):

* Pick 3 - 2,234 points
* Pick 21 - 878 points
* Pick 53 - 233 points
* Pick 55 - 207 points

Note our 3rd round this year is tied to Brisbane (I’ve assumed they’ll finish 2nd) & our 4th is tied to the Crows (think it’s safe to pencil them in for the spoon!).

If we use Pick 3 to draft a non-academy player, that leaves us 1,318 points (the sum of our 2nd-4th rounders).

If a bid comes for Campbell at Pick 10, it’ll cost us 1,116 points (1,395 minus 20% academy discount) to match - meaning we would have to go well into debt to also get Gulden (or trade away some of our 2022 picks). If Gulden attracts a first round bid (unlikely, but not impossible), we’d be in a very difficult position & might have to decline matching.

It’s one of the reasons I think a Papley deal might get done for Carlton’s first. If we have Carlton’s first, we can safely land a selection with Pick 3, plus get the two academy boys & not compromise our position in the 2022 draft.

There’s still a lot of variables though - the Swans will be trying to figure out where the bid for Campbell will come. It’ll have a big bearing on their strategy.
 
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Tesla Tenet

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We do have another contender for bottom 3.
Crows locked in, i cant see Norf winning another game so 17th for them but the Hawks are not tanking they are just crap so they're in the hunt for 16th.

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Kapers

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Let us assume we finish 16th.

We would then get the following (assuming no compo picks, which is unlikely, but too hard to predict at this stage):

* Pick 3 - 2,234 points
* Pick 21 - 878 points
* Pick 53 - 233 points
* Pick 55 - 207 points

Note our 3rd round this year is tied to Brisbane (I’ve assumed they’ll finish 2nd) & our 4th is tied to the Crows (think it’s safe to pencil them in for the spoon!).

If we use Pick 3 to draft a non-academy player, that leaves us 1,318 points (the sum of our 2nd-4th rounders).

If a bid comes for Campbell at Pick 10, it’ll cost us 1,116 points (1,395 minus 20% academy discount) to match - meaning we would have to go well into debt to also get Gulden (or trade away some of our 2022 picks). If Gulden attracts a first round bid (unlikely, but not impossible), we’d be in a very difficult position & might have to decline matching.

It’s one of the reasons I think a Papley deal might get done for Carlton’s first. If we have Carlton’s first, we can safely land a selection with Pick 3, plus get the two academy boys & not compromise our position in the 2022 draft.

There’s still a lot of variables though - the Swans will be trying to figure out where the bid for Campbell will come. It’ll have a big bearing on their strategy.
I will say for many clubs the 3rd and 4th rounders won't matter, so I can see us turning pick 21 into more point currency. Imo, we aren't in the draft after our first pick so our entire trade strategy will be to maximise points after that.

Eg Adelaide have 2 3rds 2 4ths and 1 5th, could easily see a deal where we get all of those and they get pick 21. They end up with 2 firsts and 3 seconds, not including Brad Crouch compo pick, that's 6 players to draft.
 

SGBeach

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Let us assume we finish 16th.

We would then get the following (assuming no compo picks, which is unlikely, but too hard to predict at this stage):

* Pick 3 - 2,234 points
* Pick 21 - 878 points
* Pick 53 - 233 points
* Pick 55 - 207 points

Note our 3rd round this year is tied to Brisbane (I’ve assumed they’ll finish 2nd) & our 4th is tied to the Crows (think it’s safe to pencil them in for the spoon!).

If we use Pick 3 to draft a non-academy player, that leaves us 1,318 points (the sum of our 2nd-4th rounders).

If a bid comes for Campbell at Pick 10, it’ll cost us 1,116 points (1,395 minus 20% academy discount) to match - meaning we would have to go well into debt to also get Gulden (or trade away some of our 2022 picks). If Gulden attracts a first round bid (unlikely, but not impossible), we’d be in a very difficult position & might have to decline matching.

It’s one of the reasons I think a Papley deal might get done for Carlton’s first. If we have Carlton’s first, we can safely land a selection with Pick 3, plus get the two academy boys & not compromise our position in the 2022 draft.

There’s still a lot of variables though - the Swans will be trying to figure out where the bid for Campbell will come. It’ll have a big bearing on their strategy.
All your numbers are probably correct.. but I have to disagree that we would trade Paps to get points.
If Gulden goes in the second round, and to match we have to go into deficit.. our future 2nd would suffer, not our future 1st. No way we trade Paps to protect our future 2nd.
A first round pick for Paps will get used to trade in a player.. Paps will probably attract more than one pick
 

Dubai Quacker

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All your numbers are probably correct.. but I have to disagree that we would trade Paps to get points.
If Gulden goes in the second round, and to match we have to go into deficit.. our future 2nd would suffer, not our future 1st. No way we trade Paps to protect our future 2nd.
A first round pick for Paps will get used to trade in a player.. Paps will probably attract more than one pick
I’m not so sure.

If say Carlton finish 14th, they’d give us Pick 5 for Papley, which would enable us to take 3 draftees in the first round plus Gulden in the second.

Im not saying it’s correct - but the Swans could potentially decide to trade Papley and smash the draft. Mind you, that hasn’t been the Swans philosophy since the move to Sydney, as the club felt it couldn’t afford to bottom out.

Of course, the alternates might be to trade Papley for a pick and a player. Or just keep Papley.

There’s so many permutations of what could happen - the football department gets paid to make the decisions, I just enjoy speculating & playing the numbers.
 

SGBeach

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I’m not so sure.

If say Carlton finish 14th, they’d give us Pick 5 for Papley, which would enable us to take 3 draftees in the first round plus Gulden in the second.

Im not saying it’s correct - but the Swans could potentially decide to trade Papley and smash the draft. Mind you, that hasn’t been the Swans philosophy since the move to Sydney, as the club felt it couldn’t afford to bottom out.

Of course, the alternates might be to trade Papley for a pick and a player. Or just keep Papley.

There’s so many permutations of what could happen - the football department gets paid to make the decisions, I just enjoy speculating & playing the numbers.
Im thinking most on here are of the opinion that we've got a good crop of young players, most on here reckon we've drafted well in recent years.. add p3(ish) + Cambell + Gulden and its another good year at the draft.
I can't see the Swans letting Paps go for a good first round draftee. Reckon we'd only let him go if we could get an equally good player with equal experience in return, or, two/three very good players in return.
Getting some help down back seems very important
Getting another mid who can help the younger mids develop seems very important
Getting a ruck seems very important
How much can we get in return for Paps
like you say sooooo many permutations

(p3 +p5 + Cambell and Gulden does sound awesome though)
 

Dubai Quacker

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Im thinking most on here are of the opinion that we've got a good crop of young players, most on here reckon we've drafted well in recent years.. add p3(ish) + Cambell + Gulden and its another good year at the draft.
I can't see the Swans letting Paps go for a good first round draftee. Reckon we'd only let him go if we could get an equally good player with equal experience in return, or, two/three very good players in return.
Getting some help down back seems very important
Getting another mid who can help the younger mids develop seems very important
Getting a ruck seems very important
How much can we get in return for Paps
like you say sooooo many permutations

(p3 +p5 + Cambell and Gulden does sound awesome though)
Ollie Wines is likely to get to Carlton, which will likely cost Carlton their 2nd rounder or a player.

Carlton might be reluctant to give up both of their first 2 picks - so a player swap for Papley isn’t out of the question if the Swans do elect to let him go.

I can envisage a complex 3 way trade (Syd/Port/Carlton) that gets both Wines and Papley to Carlton - Port will be very keen to strengthen their draft hand. Don’t discount us getting a player from Port as part of the deal.
 

RobbieK

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Let us assume we finish 16th.

We would then get the following (assuming no compo picks, which is unlikely, but too hard to predict at this stage):

* Pick 3 - 2,234 points
* Pick 21 - 878 points
* Pick 53 - 233 points
* Pick 55 - 207 points

Note our 3rd round this year is tied to Brisbane (I’ve assumed they’ll finish 2nd) & our 4th is tied to the Crows (think it’s safe to pencil them in for the spoon!).

If we use Pick 3 to draft a non-academy player, that leaves us 1,318 points (the sum of our 2nd-4th rounders).

If a bid comes for Campbell at Pick 10, it’ll cost us 1,116 points (1,395 minus 20% academy discount) to match - meaning we would have to go well into debt to also get Gulden (or trade away some of our 2022 picks). If Gulden attracts a first round bid (unlikely, but not impossible), we’d be in a very difficult position & might have to decline matching.

It’s one of the reasons I think a Papley deal might get done for Carlton’s first. If we have Carlton’s first, we can safely land a selection with Pick 3, plus get the two academy boys & not compromise our position in the 2022 draft.

There’s still a lot of variables though - the Swans will be trying to figure out where the bid for Campbell will come. It’ll have a big bearing on their strategy.

I don't think we need to be too concerned compromising our position in the next draft if we need to in order to secure Campbell and Gulden on top of our first round pick.

The main reason for that is that I don't think we should be looking to continue hitting the draft as hard as we have the last few seasons. The shift in recruitment policy from one that prioritised trading in more established players to one that focused on drafting young players made sense for a team that was in need of a pretty major rebuild. To an extent it was forced upon us by the AFL when they reacted to our signing of Franklin.

But you don't rise back up the ladder if you only keep going to the draft each year. At some point you then need to start filling the gaps on the list with older players who will complement the core of players you created with your drafting.

This year we get two academy players, potentially on top of that another top 5 draftee. We are already running around with the youngest team in the league at the moment, we bring in one last good haul of first round draft picks to add to that list, and then I think we back that group in by starting to bring in older players who are more immediate impact. Finals isn't going to happen this year, but the plan should be aiming for us to be back in the 8 by 2022 at the latest. Next year's off-season should in my opinion be about what will serve us best in 2022 and 2023 than about what will do us best in 2025.
 

FreeAgent1

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I don't think we need to be too concerned compromising our position in the next draft if we need to in order to secure Campbell and Gulden on top of our first round pick.

The main reason for that is that I don't think we should be looking to continue hitting the draft as hard as we have the last few seasons. The shift in recruitment policy from one that prioritised trading in more established players to one that focused on drafting young players made sense for a team that was in need of a pretty major rebuild. To an extent it was forced upon us by the AFL when they reacted to our signing of Franklin.

But you don't rise back up the ladder if you only keep going to the draft each year. At some point you then need to start filling the gaps on the list with older players who will complement the core of players you created with your drafting.

This year we get two academy players, potentially on top of that another top 5 draftee. We are already running around with the youngest team in the league at the moment, we bring in one last good haul of first round draft picks to add to that list, and then I think we back that group in by starting to bring in older players who are more immediate impact. Finals isn't going to happen this year, but the plan should be aiming for us to be back in the 8 by 2022 at the latest. Next year's off-season should in my opinion be about what will serve us best in 2022 and 2023 than about what will do us best in 2025.
Everyone who has mentioned to trade Papley for picks needs to read the above post.

I really enjoy discussing list management especially when we arent winning alot of games, waxing on building future dynasty give hope but we will already get another 3 highly rated kids this year, with the youngest list already. Post this year we will lose the big Buddy $$ (as its reduced in his last year) and I expected us to target one hard bodied mid, a ruck and a KPD.

I actually wouldnt be suprised if we try for goldstein/cunnington and trade out someone we think may have value to Roos that is semi-expendible (i.e. Aliir or Reid).
 

RobbieK

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Everyone who has mentioned to trade Papley for picks needs to read the above post.

I really enjoy discussing list management especially when we arent winning alot of games, waxing on building future dynasty give hope but we will already get another 3 highly rated kids this year, with the youngest list already. Post this year we will lose the big Buddy $$ (as its reduced in his last year) and I expected us to target one hard bodied mid, a ruck and a KPD.

I actually wouldnt be suprised if we try for goldstein/cunnington and trade out someone we think may have value to Roos that is semi-expendible (i.e. Aliir or Reid).
Goldstein is 32, Cunnington is 29. I think that makes both a little too old for our needs. We ought to be looking at guys in their mid 20s. Free agency starts to kick in after a player has been on a list for 8 seasons, which makes them around 26 for the most part. That's the perfect demographic for us to strengthen ourselves immediately and still get service from them for the next 4 seasons.
 

Kapers

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Goldstein is 32, Cunnington is 29. I think that makes both a little too old for our needs. We ought to be looking at guys in their mid 20s. Free agency starts to kick in after a player has been on a list for 8 seasons, which makes them around 26 for the most part. That's the perfect demographic for us to strengthen ourselves immediately and still get service from them for the next 4 seasons.
Not every player we get has to serve is for 4-5 seasons. Don't undervalue how much a Cunnington or a Goldstein would help the young blokes for 1-2 years. Older players tend to be cheaper and can really speed up a teams growth. See Hodge at Brisbane.

If we get an old head and only get 2 years out of them, we get them as a mentor as well. Could you imagine how invaluable Hodge was to some of the kids learning their craft up their.

We get a few old blokes who know their craft and they come on for 2 years. When they leave we all do a sudden have this core going into 2023 (around this age, just added 3 to their current age)
Stephens - 22
Heeney - 27
Rowbottom - 23
Hayward - 24
Papley - 27 (if he stays)
Florent - 25
Mills - 26
Ling - 24
Blakey - 23
McInerney - 23
McCartin - 23
Dawson - 26
Et - 22
McClean - 24

And these are really only th players that we >90% chance of keeping. Our list will have a really good group if we cam get them through this awkward in between without too many losses.
The group I just mentioned have a chance at becoming a premiership side if they all develop, but they also have the chance at becoming perennial failures of their losses stack again and again.

I don't mind going to the draft again, but that's is not going to get us wins next year.
Player that could make a huge difference in the short term are players like Hooker (31) or Stephen Martin (32). They maybe have a season or 2 in them, but they give us what we sorely need.
 
Ollie Wines is likely to get to Carlton, which will likely cost Carlton their 2nd rounder or a player.

Carlton might be reluctant to give up both of their first 2 picks - so a player swap for Papley isn’t out of the question if the Swans do elect to let him go.

I can envisage a complex 3 way trade (Syd/Port/Carlton) that gets both Wines and Papley to Carlton - Port will be very keen to strengthen their draft hand. Don’t discount us getting a player from Port as part of the deal.
If there was any kind of 3 way trade involving Port I'd want us to get Ladhams. Will be twice the footballer that Pitonett is.
 
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