List Mgmt. 2020 Draft - Bidding on Lachie Jones

Remove this Banner Ad

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
63,306
91,984
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
So where is the sweet spot for a Jones bid holding the selections we currently have? Are we better off Adelaide bidding early or with pick 8 if Campbell and JUH are bid on in the first 4 selections?
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.
 

LFC2010

Brownlow Medallist
Apr 28, 2010
21,473
23,683
Adelaide
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Liverpool, Boston Celtics
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.
in much shorter terms it's an absolute head f***!
 

Log in to remove this ad.

manureid

Laziest Poster on Figbooty
Nov 24, 2003
38,113
56,024
Deleted Threads
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
Man United,Raiders
I am in the camp that the Crows will bid on Jones at #1 (or #2 if they get that as Crouch compo) because they know we will 99% match and they will want to make us suffer.
Or we dont match and they end up with a player at pick 1 or 2 that is maybe at best 10th ranked player in draft.
 

raffdog

Debutant
Mar 19, 2012
86
101
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
I am in the camp that the Crows will bid on Jones at #1 (or #2 if they get that as Crouch compo) because they know we will 99% match and they will want to make us suffer.
The backlash from the franchise supporters will be huge if they do this. Considering the crows franchise are tone deaf and have there heads in the sand they may give it a go.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

OneGreatClub

Hall of Famer
Nov 6, 2014
43,448
51,903
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Crows haven't even bothered to interview Jones much less shown any intention to bid on him.

Essendon will bid at 6 or whatever that becomes.

That's as early as he's going.
Remember when we didn’t interview a player or two last year and picked them in the draft. It’s called poker.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
63,306
91,984
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
The Cameron and Crouch compo when awarded, will move all our picks back 2 spots, that's another 167 pts lost and leaves us with 1,794 pts. When they officially happen I will put up a new graphic.
 

EskimoPAFC

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 17, 2017
5,358
13,489
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
How many Brownlows are won by solid half backs?
Dan Houston just won his first playing most of the season off half-back (ok I get it he played a few early games in the mid)
 

MrMeaner

Norm Smith Medallist
Jan 15, 2004
8,331
9,567
Melbourne
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Have a points system for academy and father-son or compo picks for free agents but not both. The penalty to those down the draft order who aren't involved in the free agent movement is ridiculous. But what do you expect from this tinpot league.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
63,306
91,984
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
The AFL is saying our 2nd round pick which I have above as being adjusted for the Mead deficit of 115.9 pts at pick 43 is in fact pick 46.


My guess is that as the pick would have originally been at pick 35 ie pick 16 + GC compo pick slotted in at 11 = 17 + 18 for next round = 35, has been moved back to 39 because of 3 compo picks slotted in before 35 that and then Ratkins compo is slotted before our adjusted pick as his compo is end of Rd 3.

Pick 39 = 446 - 115.9 = 330.1 pts. Pick 46 = 331 pts and pick 47 = 316 pts. So we get bumped up to 46. Difference between 46 and 43 sees another 47 pts eliminated so we are at 1,914 pts total.
 

RussellEbertHandball

Flick pass expert
Nov 16, 2004
63,306
91,984
SE Oz
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Other Teams
The Mighty Blacks
Are we gonna have to ship someone out?
Starting to look that way, especially if a few more compo picks are given.

If we assume Essendon will be the first ones to bid on him at 6, they have said they like him, we will have enough points for him and maybe Schofield depending on high Scofield goes. We will go into deficit for Schofield if need be but if we have to match bids 6 and 25 for these 2, we probably go 200-300 pts in deficit.

GWS had matched Geelong's bid for Cameron. If Adelaide do the same for Crouch then we probably wont go into deficit.
 

Remove this Banner Ad