Flick pass expert
- Nov 16, 2004
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
- Other Teams
- The Mighty Blacks
Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.So where is the sweet spot for a Jones bid holding the selections we currently have? Are we better off Adelaide bidding early or with pick 8 if Campbell and JUH are bid on in the first 4 selections?
If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.
If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.
If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.
A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts
Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts
In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.
But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.
Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.
Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.
If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.