List Mgmt. 2020 Draft - Bidding on Lachie Jones

[Janus]

Schofield isn’t getting picked before points become meaningless with the 20% discount (around pick 46 or 48). We can just say we are picking him after that point. I’m not worried about him.

The main issue is going to be having enough picks based on vacant list spots. We basically want to improve our draft position into a consolidated two picks that are enough for Jones if we just want to select Jones and Schofield.

For every player that is bid on, we are another two picks closer to getting to Schofield. And I’m sorry, but sub 180 cm players don’t get picked early unless they are elite.

 

[Macca19]

We have plenty of points for Jones to go earlier than we want and Schofield to go inside the top 40.

I did a live mock with where I think the Academy players might go and the effect on the draft at that point which worked out like this:

Pick 2 - Ugle-Hagan (I think Crows won't bid on him with 1)
Pick 7 - Campbell
Pick 8 - Jones
Pick 14 - McInnes
Pick 17 - Edwards
Pick 20 - Davies
Pick 24 - Downie
Pick 26 - Walker
Pick 27 - Gulden
Pick 29 - Borlase
Pick 32 - Western
Pick 36 - Brand
Pick 39 - Schofield

We end up with Jones, Schofield, 52 & 53

 

[JUSTWORK]

Pick 17 - Edwards

Wasn't sure he was nominating as a F/S. Has that changed ?

 

[Macca19]

Wasn't sure he was nominating as a F/S. Has that changed ?

I just did it for the sake of the mock

 

[Power Raid]

Around pick 10 is ok, pick 8 means we might have to go into small deficit if Schofield gets taken between 28-32.

If someone bids on UGH and Campbell before's Adelaide's current second pick at 8, then 8 becomes 10. They would bid on Jones with that IMO.

If Essendon get a first round compo pick for Daniher that pushes it to 11. If Adelaide get pick 2 for Crouch compo that pushes it to 12. If someone also bids on somebody else like Davies before Adelaide's pick 8 it pushes it to 13. All those scenarios leave Port off ok with the current picks they have. But if Adelaide get 1 and Crouch compo gives them 2 they might bid on Jones with that and that leaves us with a large deficit for next year.

If 8 becomes 13 then 26 becomes 31 but lets say 35 allowing for 4 more compo picks at end of Rd 1. Some picks before 26 could be eliminated depending on who uses them so 26 could become 25 or 27 not 35 but lets be conservative. Same with our other picks, let's be conservative with what picks are eliminated.

A bid at pick 8.. 1,551 pts - 20% discount = 1,241 pts
A bid at pick 10 1,395 pts - 20% discount = 1,116 pts
A bid at ick 13.. 1,212 pts - 20% discount = 970 pts

Pick 26 becomes 35...... 729 pts becomes 522 pts
Pick 31 becomes pick 40 606 pts becomes 429 pts
Pick 39 becomes pick 48 446 pts becomes 302 pts

In the above scenario we need 371 less pts moving from matching a bit at 13 compared to 8 but our picks being pushed back we have lost 528 pts for a net loss of 157 pts.

But it could be less than that depending on how many bids are made and how many picks are eliminated using those bids.

Where is the sweat spot?? Its hard to say when 15 matching player bids are likely to be made, 5 or 6 compo picks added and maybe 30 picks are eliminated in the process of making matching bids, given we will bid on Schofield and he seems to have a wide range of where he could go.

Having to match a bid between 2 and 5 involves pain carried forward to next year's first round pick. 6 and 7 less so, but still pain. Having to match a bid at 8 or later is fine.

If the crows bid on him at pick 1 its just being vindictive to Port. He isn't the best player in the draft. Logan McDonald is the best player I've seen and he's rated top 3 but I watched 3 games of him play for Perth.

Can you do a coloured crayon pic for simple folk like me?



Thanks REH

 

[OneGreatClub]

We have plenty of points for Jones to go earlier than we want and Schofield to go inside the top 40.

I did a live mock with where I think the Academy players might go and the effect on the draft at that point which worked out like this:

Pick 2 - Ugle-Hagan (I think Crows won't bid on him with 1)
Pick 7 - Campbell
Pick 8 - Jones
Pick 14 - McInnes
Pick 17 - Edwards
Pick 20 - Davies
Pick 24 - Downie
Pick 26 - Walker
Pick 27 - Gulden
Pick 29 - Borlase
Pick 32 - Western
Pick 36 - Brand
Pick 39 - Schofield

We end up with Jones, Schofield, 52 & 53

Is this if we keep Pick 26 or whatever it is now?

 

[Macca19]

Is this if we keep Pick 26 or whatever it is now?

Yes

 

[Doctor Feel]

Can we get Nick Stevens

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

then trade him to Carlton and win a ship' the next year?

 

[Tibbs]

How many Brownlows are won by solid half backs?

If he is playing at half-back when he is 24, I will eat my Port cap!

Bookmark this!

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

We have plenty of points for Jones to go earlier than we want and Schofield to go inside the top 40.

I did a live mock with where I think the Academy players might go and the effect on the draft at that point which worked out like this:

Pick 2 - Ugle-Hagan (I think Crows won't bid on him with 1)
Pick 7 - Campbell
Pick 8 - Jones
Pick 14 - McInnes
Pick 17 - Edwards
Pick 20 - Davies
Pick 24 - Downie
Pick 26 - Walker
Pick 27 - Gulden
Pick 29 - Borlase
Pick 32 - Western
Pick 36 - Brand
Pick 39 - Schofield

We end up with Jones, Schofield, 52 & 53

Did you do the full simulations? There are a lot of picks eliminated to get to Schofield.

Anyway I have done the simulations for the first 3 on your list and given where we are today as per this AFL list of Indicative Draft Order put out at 5pm today.

Final draft order: Your club's picks for the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

The final draft order is set ahead of the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Western Bulldogs and Sydney are going to have to trade for picks unless they are happy to go into deficit and/or pick up the minimal number of kids. Sydney have the benefit of being able to use pick 3 which becomes pick 4 before they had to match a bid on Campbell at 7.

I have greyed the picks actually used to match the bid.

 

[Tibbs]

Can we get Nick Stevens

Multiple players found. Use birthday to differentiate. eg [PLAYERCARD="23/11/1962"]Joe Smith[/PLAYERCARD]

then trade him to Carlton and win a ship' the next year?

Nah, you just know they wont accept our offer & he will walk to the preseason draft!

 

[Doctor Feel]

If he is playing at half-back when he is 24, I will eat my Port cap!

Bookmark this!

Inb4 delisted by 24

 

[Macca19]

Did you do the full simulations? There are a lot of picks eliminated to get to Schofield.

Anyway I have done the simulations for the first 3 on your list and given where we are today as per this AFL list of Indicative Draft Order put out at 5pm today.

Final draft order: Your club's picks for the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

The final draft order is set ahead of the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Western Bulldogs and Sydney are going to have to trade for picks unless they are happy to go into deficit and/or pick up the minimal number of kids. Sydney have the benefit of being able to use pick 3 which becomes pick 4 before they had to match a bid on Campbell at 7.

I have greyed the picks actually used to match the bid.
View attachment 999784

Yes, I did every bid, worked out the points, the picks used etc. I had Sydney not taking Gulden due to the fact they would be in deficit after the Campbell bid

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Yes, I did every bid, worked out the points, the picks used etc. I had Sydney not taking Gulden due to the fact they would be in deficit after the Campbell bid

So in simple terms pick 56+58 we have of today that becomes 54+55 and 62 generated we have after the Jones bid at 8, gets pushed back 9 slots because of matching bids but is advanced by about 20-25 slots as picks are eliminated before we get to Schofield at 39. I knew I was being conservative to say he might go at pick 28-32 with the eliminations but didn't think it was that conservative.

 

[SureBuddy]

Did you do the full simulations? There are a lot of picks eliminated to get to Schofield.

Anyway I have done the simulations for the first 3 on your list and given where we are today as per this AFL list of Indicative Draft Order put out at 5pm today.

Final draft order: Your club's picks for the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

The final draft order is set ahead of the 2020 NAB AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

Western Bulldogs and Sydney are going to have to trade for picks unless they are happy to go into deficit and/or pick up the minimal number of kids. Sydney have the benefit of being able to use pick 3 which becomes pick 4 before they had to match a bid on Campbell at 7.

I have greyed the picks actually used to match the bid.
View attachment 999784

Hilarious, what a joke of a system. I just love how the Bulldogs can get the best player in the entire draft with pick 14 and a handful of other meaningless picks. How is that fair?

There should be some sort of rule that if you are matching, at least one of the picks you are going to use to match has to be within 10 slots of where the bid is coming. If it is a top 5 pick, you need to have a pick at least within 5 slots.

I know that would fk us with Jones, but it’s a horrendous system. If you don’t have a pick anywhere near the player, you don’t deserve to get them.

Ultimately scrapping all academy picks would be my preference.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Eh no matter where he gets taken we will match. We get a free hit at a top 10 talent in a heavily diluted draft when our earliest picks are likely to end up in the 30s

No one at the club will lose a moment's sleep over a potential points deficit next season

 

[EdgePower1870]

Hilarious, what a joke of a system. I just love how the Bulldogs can get the best player in the entire draft with pick 14 and a handful of other meaningless picks. How is that fair?

There should be some sort of rule that if you are matching, at least one of the picks you are going to use to match has to be within 10 slots of where the bid is coming. If it is a top 5 pick, you need to have a pick at least within 5 slots.

I know that would fk us with Jones, but it’s a horrendous system. If you don’t have a pick anywhere near the player, you don’t deserve to get them.

Ultimately scrapping all academy picks would be my preference.

Just make round 1 picks Untouchable no matter what. Can start next year after we get Jones of course.

 

[JUSTWORK]

Just make round 1 picks Untouchable no matter what. Can start next year after we get Jones of course.

Untouchable is to far. As i've said previously and was just posted again recently, perhaps first round bids should have to be matched with a first round pick (Or a similar)

 

[Ford Fairlane]

AFL has already said they will take control of NGA Academies and phase out access to first and possibly second round picks after this draft.

Draft shake-up: Next Gen Academies to phase out access to top prospects

Changes to the Next Generation Academies are set to have an impact on where top prospects land

www.afl.com.au

 

[Us against the rest]

Who said that we were going after Schofield at all?

 

[Us against the rest]

If we secure Jones I'm happy.
Considering we haven't played Williams, Mead and Bergman, we are setting ourselves up beautifully.

Compare our last 5 years drafting to the crows, Excellent job Port.

 

[JUSTWORK]

If we secure Jones I'm happy.
Considering we haven't played first rounders in Williams, Mead and Bergman, we are setting ourselves up beautifully.

Compare our last 5 years drafting to the crows, Excellent job Port.

Not to be too pedantic but Williams & Mead were both second round picks (Williams being the first picked in the second round)

 

[Us against the rest]

Not to be too pedantic but Williams & Mead were both second round picks (Williams being the first picked in the second round)

True but still good prospects.

 

[Us against the rest]

Not to be too pedantic but Williams & Mead were both second round picks (Williams being the first picked in the second round)

Fixed.

 

[JUSTWORK]

True but still good prospects.

Absolutely.

Really very little difference between a late first and early second (literary just a few picks). If not for a few injury problems, Williams definitely does early in the first round.

Fixed.

All good, just having a laugh.