List Mgmt. 2020 Draft (December 9) discussion thread

[dlanod]

Our currently owned picks:

24 - Blake Coleman
43 - Harry Sharp
48 - Henry Smith

Our currently owned 2021 picks:

1st (MEL), 1st (BRI), 3rd (WCE), 3rd (BRI), 4th (MEL), 4th (COL), 5th (BRI)

 

[briztoon]

Just got around to listening to yesterday’s episode of Road to the Draft, Twomey mentions Brisbane are still looking to trade picks before the draft. Doesn’t say what range or anything, but I can’t imagine we’re looking for more points.

 

[harvester]

Here is a link to QLDers linked to the LIONS in this years draft

2020 AFL Draft: Queensland’s Top Prospects – Part One - AFL Queensland

By AFLQ Media The 2020 NAB AFL Draft will be held as a one-night event on December 9 and is set to be a draft like no other. This year will be defined by interruptions, season suspensions and a lack…Read more ›

www.aflq.com.au

 

[JasRulz63]

Just got around to listening to yesterday’s episode of Road to the Draft, Twomey mentions Brisbane are still looking to trade picks before the draft. Doesn’t say what range or anything, but I can’t imagine we’re looking for more points.

Only one I can think of is trying to move pick 25 further up the order to ensure a pick in before Coleman. Or move our later picks up to into the 30s, so if 25 does get used to match Coleman, we'll have a pick soon after.

 

[mpal6]

I’d genuinely love to post some FB screenshots right now.

There was a game late last season where I saw glimpses of this new and improved Archie Smith

44

Archie Smith

Age

28

Ht

203cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

6.9

4star

CL

2.1

4star

HO

14.4

5star

D

4.7

1star

K

1.7

1star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

2.0

4star

HO

11.3

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

3.4

2star

HB

9.0

5star

CL

3.0

5star

HO

17.8

5star

. After the center bounce tap, he actually went chasing the footy. I was shocked to see him actually wanting the footy in his hands and trying to get the next disposal. Just put that clip on repeat and go, "Son, this is all we need you to do every single time. You are a 2m/100+ kg monster, just mow down any opposition player who gets in the way".

I'm keeping the faith still. He is hitting that mature ruck age (25), he could be so good for us if it all clicks. Not throwing him away yet.

 

[M Malice]

So what's the latest, how many selections will we be taking on draft night?

I'm assuming we will be upgrading Tom Fullarton and matching a Blake Coleman bid + listing David Uosis as a CatB rookie.

 

[mpal6]

Only one I can think of is trying to move pick 25 further up the order to ensure a pick in before Coleman. Or move our later picks up to into the 30s, so if 25 does get used to match Coleman, we'll have a pick soon after.

Yep, I was thinking the later as well. Looking at the draft points table Gold coast 27 or North's 30 looks to be a good spot for us. If Coleman pick comes early then we don't fall too far and another mid twenties or thirties pick would be nice.

I also tried calculating if JUH going on pick 1 mean how the draft positions might move or let's say any of Collingwood or Port's NGA bid goes early what will it do to our picks etc. Ended up with a migraine and I gave up.

 

[pulpdriver]

Just got around to listening to yesterday’s episode of Road to the Draft, Twomey mentions Brisbane are still looking to trade picks before the draft. Doesn’t say what range or anything, but I can’t imagine we’re looking for more points.

Trying our best to get a pick before Coleman?

 

[briztoon]

Trying our best to get a pick before Coleman?

Didn’t say.

 

[briztoon]

If we’re thinking of bundling up our later picks and moving up the draft, I’d target Bulldogs first pick (think it’s around mid 30’s).

That’s on the provisos that Bulldogs can take unlimited picks to the draft.

Otherwise we’d probably need to trade a future 3rd as part of any deal.

 

[pulpdriver]

Didn’t say.

lol, obviously, but I wonder if that's the intention.

 

[bungalow_bill]

Yep, I was thinking the later as well. Looking at the draft points table Gold coast 27 or North's 30 looks to be a good spot for us. If Coleman pick comes early then we don't fall too far and another mid twenties or thirties pick would be nice.

I also tried calculating if JUH going on pick 1 mean how the draft positions might move or let's say any of Collingwood or Port's NGA bid goes early what will it do to our picks etc. Ended up with a migraine and I gave up.

 

[briztoon]

Yep, I was thinking the later as well. Looking at the draft points table Gold coast 27 or North's 30 looks to be a good spot for us. If Coleman pick comes early then we don't fall too far and another mid twenties or thirties pick would be nice.

I also tried calculating if JUH going on pick 1 mean how the draft positions might move or let's say any of Collingwood or Port's NGA bid goes early what will it do to our picks etc. Ended up with a migraine and I gave up.

There’s a relatively easy way to guesstimate when multiple picks are used.

The first pick jumps up to where the bid was made, pushing every pick in front of its original position back one spot.

Then every other pick basically disappears to the very end of the draft, and the picks after them move up.

If JUH, Campbell, Jones and Gullden are all bid on before Coleman, pick 25 moves back 4 spots

Our pick 53 will move up 7 spots and pick 58 will move up 8 spots.

 

[mpal6]

View attachment 1019758

I persisted with it and took a stab at first 10 picks. If it pans out as per below then Essendon would be doing us a big favor here by wiping off Sydney, Collingwood and Port picks. It could potentially leave us at 27/46/49/56/58/59 instead of 25/53/58/66/68/69.

After these updates GWS picks appear to be at 14/17/18/22/30. Wondering if they'll be using 30 at all or happy to palm it off to us for later picks.

1​	Western Bulldogs		Jamarra Ugle Hagan
2​	Adelaide		Riley Thilthorpe
3​	North Melbourne		Logan McDonald
4​	Sydney		Elijah Hollands
5​	Hawthorn		Denver Grainger Barras
6​	Gold Coast		Will Phillips
7​	Sydney		Braeden Campbell
8​	Port Adelaide		Lachie Jones
9​	Collingwood		Reef McInnes
10​	Essendon		Tanner Bruhn

 

[mpal6]

There’s a relatively easy way to guesstimate when multiple picks are used.

The first pick jumps up to where the bid was made, pushing every pick in front of its original position back one spot.

Then every other pick basically disappears to the very end of the draft, and the picks after them move up.

If JUH, Campbell, Jones and Gullden are all bid on before Coleman, pick 25 moves back 4 spots

Our pick 53 will move up 7 spots and pick 58 will move up 8 spots.

Yep, it's the relative movement of the whole draft order that was becoming a bit difficult. All good, got there.

 

[Section 5]

Parents must have guessed what their little boy would grow into when they named him in 2000.



Height: 206cm | Weight: 96kg | 9/12/2000

One of the better young ruck prospects around, Samson Ryan has had a consistent and competitive 2020 season as Sherwood’s primary ruck in the QAFL senior’s competition. Ryan dominates hit outs and aerial contests with his remarkable size and reach. The former Allies representative will turn 20-years-old on draft day technically making him a mature-age prospect under the current format.

 

[Quigley]

When I saw this I went back and had a look at the QAFL Elimination Final to get a bit of an idea about Ryan.

Overall he is a very big guy and will probably end up a monster. For his size he moves nicely around the ground and seems more coordinated than a lot of the exceptionally tall guys. His skills seem solid enough. On the negatives though he rarely makes use of his height in the ruck contest and misjudges his jump time and again. He gets outmuscled a lot at this stage and worries too much about getting body contact rather than using his main advantage which is his height. He wins more than his fair share of ruck contests but it is often just reaching around his opponent and very rarely are they good taps to advantage. He is not a high possession ruck. He has excellent height and an enticing athletic profile but to me he looks miles off being an AFL level player.

FWIW Carter Michael also played in that game. Again he did nothing that really screamed "draft me". He held his own at QAFL level and was solid both offensively and defensively but nothing more than that. I am just not seeing any attribute that looks elite. He has some length on his kick but he does not pick out targets with it. His option taking is average to below average for a draft prospect. He gets a bit of the ball but does not get to space much going forward and so disposes of the pill under pressure more often than not. He is quick but does not really use that to break the lines. To me he seems average in virtually every way. Personally I still prefer Abberley who at least has some weapons I think could translate into above average AFL skills.

 

[Clarkythelion]

Parents must have guessed what their little boy would grow into when they named him in 2000.

View attachment 1019808

Height: 206cm | Weight: 96kg | 9/12/2000

One of the better young ruck prospects around, Samson Ryan has had a consistent and competitive 2020 season as Sherwood’s primary ruck in the QAFL senior’s competition. Ryan dominates hit outs and aerial contests with his remarkable size and reach. The former Allies representative will turn 20-years-old on draft day technically making him a mature-age prospect under the current format.

My mate's son plasy with him at Sherwood, has for the last couple of years and my mate has been to every game and is an ex-AFL umpire so know a bit about the game. This was Samson's first full year in the seniors and he reckons he got better as the year went on. He is also a very good cricketeer, a big fast bowler who was on a cricket scholarship out at Toowoomba Grammar so would have had, no, or very little AFL at school that is Rugby League and Rugby Union heartland. My mate reckons he is going to be a big unit you could see him filling out over the season.

 

[blueiris]

Cal Twomey believes Collingwood are massively into Coleman and expects a bid in the top 20

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Cal Twomey believes Collingwood are massively into Coleman and expects a bid in the top 20

That would test us.

 

[blueiris]

That would test us.

Does pick 25 work Technically it’s not a first round pick

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I'd still match him in the teens. Pressure forwards are valuable, Keidean has been very good so far in his career and Blake is supposed to be even more talented.

 

[blueiris]

Does pick 25 work Technically it’s not a first round pick

Say there’s 5 top bids in round 1 JUH Jones McInnes and Sydney *2 that would push Collingwood live pick out to pick 23

 

[jackess]

Exciting to have a talent like Blake Coleman.

 

[M Malice]

Twomey usually has pretty good mail re draft bidding and ranges, I'm with JB I'd be matching the bid on Blake Coleman no matter where it is.

Eg. If he is bid on at 10(highly unlikely) our next selection is currently 25, so would it be worth not matching and hoping the player/s we rate higher than Blake would still be available when we got to our pick at 25+?

 

[WhiteLionFeva]

Does pick 25 work Technically it’s not a first round pick

This is my understanding - As the picks currently stand (that is, ignoring other likely bids, swaps etc), and assuming we don't trade in another pick for more points, if Collingwood bids at 16 and we match it would mean we lose pick 25 and our next pick (53) would move back to 61. Even less of an issue with picks getting pushed back.