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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft (December 9) discussion thread

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Our currently owned picks:

24 - Blake Coleman
43 - Harry Sharp
48 - Henry Smith

Our currently owned 2021 picks:

1st (MEL), 1st (BRI), 3rd (WCE), 3rd (BRI), 4th (MEL), 4th (COL), 5th (BRI)
 
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Much as a lot of the talk is about state league ruckmen, some one has to develop them. IMO it is responsible management to have a young, developing ruckman on the list.
 
Jason mp said:
A grade rucks don't seem to necessarily mean GF success eg. Gawn/Nic Nat/Grundy. Richmond/Geelong seem to do OK without an elite/AA ruck.

As long as your ruck can just about break even and give a good contest that is all you need to be competitive all the way up to and including winning Grand Finals. IMO Oscar is plenty good enough to be a premiership ruckman, in the same league as premiership ruckman like Vardy, Nankervis, Lycett, and IIRC the Bulldogs didn't even have a recognised ruck in the 2016 flag team.
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Very true. But I could make a pretty solid argument that almost every premiership team has had a weakness in the last decade. Ruck might be the fad for the last couple of years, but in 2 years, that'll probably change again.

At the end of the day, having 22 spots to fill, you won't have nothing but A-graders on every line. If you have 10 A-Graders, that might be sufficient for a premiership squad, and half of the match-day squad being solid citizens might be acceptable. Recent winners have lacked rucks, but also might not need strong half-backs, or not have a star in the midfield. Port won the minor premiership this year without a genuine key defender. Meanwhile we got to second on the ladder with the best key defensive setup in the league, but no A Grade key forwards.

I'm not trying to argue that rucks are the most important spot on the list. But I'm saying that just writing it off as "we'll just grab one from a state league later" is pretty hit and miss. Having 2 serviceable ruckmen and a speccy developer on the list at all times is not exactly overdoing it. And if we spent a pick in the 20s-40s filling the speccy ruck development prospect list spot this year, I think that'd be pretty reasonable.
 
Draft day eve wishes-

Pick 25- One of Bailey Laurie/Eddie Ford/Jack Carroll/Sam Berry, all of whom I've seen in various phantoms/power rankings as a possibility of being available there.

Then match Blake Coleman bid and I'm coming around to the possibility of drafting a young ruck after that ie. Shannon Neale/Max Heath if available and if we make a 3rd selection.
 

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Jason mp said:
Draft day eve wishes-

Pick 25- One of Bailey Laurie/Eddie Ford/Jack Carroll/Sam Berry, all of whom I've seen in various phantoms/power rankings as a possibility of being available there.

Then match Blake Coleman bid and I'm coming around to the possibility of drafting a young ruck after that ie. Shannon Neale/Max Heath if available and if we make a 3rd selection.
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Would not surprise me if we've got a few left-field mature-age ruck prospects on our recruiting list.
 
JasRulz63 said:
Collingwood's will probably move due to having Daicos available next year. Though if I was them, I'd probably just keep it until next year's trade period.
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It’s been mentioned that teams are trying to move into next years draft, without success so far.
It might all happen during the draft night.
 
I think the knock on rucks is overstated. Grundy might be overpaid now but he was integral to a side which came within a bee’s of winning a flag. He’s shown over multiple years that he’s a threat in a number of ways - good tap ruckman, gets the ball in close, gets it outside and can take a grab. I think it would be silly to assume he won’t reach similar heights again.

It might be easy to say Richmond won a flag without an elite ruck but I thought Nankervis was very strong in the finals this year and certainly played like a better rated player. And they do have a top 20 draft pick ruck prospect on their list in Coleman-Jones so they have shown a willingness to spend on a ruck.

I think you’ve got to be careful not to overpay a ruckman but I don’t think it is unreasonable to want an elite ruck or to pay the right one really decent money to get them or keep them. And right now, with the flinch reaction to drafting a ruckman, there’s got to be some underpriced talent out there.
Blanket rules like “never draft a ruckman with an early pick” are just silly to me.
 
A different type of article about Draft Night from the ABC site
The draft is the system we have but the article has some valid points
Can the system be better, probably.
Will the AFL change much, probably not just some tinkering around the edges i suspect

www.abc.net.au

Hope and desperation always trump reason and logic on AFL draft night

At the best of times, the AFL draft is more a speculative act of distributing talented youngsters rather than a science. Imagine the uncertainty when clubs draft schoolboys who did not play football this year due to COVID-19, writes Richard Hinds.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

A few paragraphs from the article
..
"Such are the cliches of AFL draft night, where hope and desperation always trump reason and logic."

"This tender age of the draftees is AFL draft's greatest failing and, coupled with the questionable imposition of free agency, a large part of the reason the AFL's recruiting and transfer system does not perform its most basic function — significantly reducing the gap between best and worst-performed teams."

"But unknown, and seldom publicly explored, is how a development system organised so players face their most crucial judgement at just 18 — at various carnivals and "combines" where players perform various feats of speed and strength for recruiters and then the draft itself — perverts and even dilutes the talent pool.

Forcing players to peak during high school means talent identification now starts even earlier with elite training academies and early-age competitions sharpening a pyramid that peaks at a convenient but seemingly premature 18-year-old, draft-age sweet spot."

"How many of those who did miss the elite squads will do the hard work required to play catch up via suburban or country competitions where the chances of catching an AFL club's eye is now relatively small?"
 
Completely agree on draft age. Makes total sense to raise it especially this year.

Also the draft order should factor in more than one season and also allow for a team like Gold Coast to have multiple picks before a team like Richmond without getting priority picks on a whim from the AFL.
 
I think they've done the right thing by making championships and the NAB League Under-19 while still allowing 18 year olds to be drafted. Hopefully it leads to most draftees being 19 but the uber-talents like Rowell can still go at 18.
 
Johnny Bananas said:
I think they've done the right thing by making championships and the NAB League Under-19 while still allowing 18 year olds to be drafted. Hopefully it leads to most draftees being 19 but the uber-talents like Rowell can still go at 18.
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Gives the late developers and extra year to state their case too.
 

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Quigley said:
GWS lacking a decent ruck has really hurt them over the last few years. Recent history has shown that you do not need an elite ruck but you do need someone who can do the job. McInerney I think can do the job and despite being 26 is still improving. Behind Oscar though things are very thin. Smith is lower tier adn there is no-one after that. As things stand if Oscar goes down for an extended period at any time over the next couple of years it could literally cost us a premiership. With talent available this year for cheap I am not sure why we would not bring in a good prospect who can provide cover in a year or two and potentially develop into an elite player.

Having an elite ruck might not be needed to win a premiership but it certainly does not hurt and I suggest would make things a lot easier.
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Agreed. We just have to look back to our premierships against Collingwood, you probably wouldn't call our ruckman elite, gee clark Keating pretty much didn't play until September came around. I think Collingwood at the time just didn't believe you needed a ruckman that you would break even when the ball hit the ground. Well, yes, Brisbane had 3 midfielders that won brownlow medals around the feet of our ruckman and another that should have. It took the pies a long time to correct that but with their $7 million man they might have gone too far given the clean out of salary cap they have had to have.
 
Jason mp said:
From what Stephen Conole said on the latest Roar Deal it looks like we'll be making 3 maybe 4 selections at the draft... he mentioned we may leave a spot vacant for the pre/mid season draft.
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I like your thinking, it's true our ruck stocks are low and I think everyone agrees a kid in the draft wont help with injuries. Leaving a spot in the med season draft allows us to see if Oscar is holding up and, bless his little cotton socks how Archie is doing. If they are not the same or better then we get a ready made ruckman than can, as others say, hold his own if not a winner.
 
I wrote this down last year from some stats that were given.

Since 2008 from draft picks 35 and over the chance of getting a player that plays over 100 games is 1 in 100. I did manage to get all the numbers from each year but wont bore you, but on average about 18 kids picked after 35 each year "succeed" using that as the criteria.

Between pick 1 and pick 16 they used the measure of being a 'success' as reaching All Australian selection at some time in their career. Average was just 4 players from that draft range each year went on to achieve that.

I also had another number written down but nothing to support it but it was that of all 1st round draft selections, only 1 out of 3, went on to play 200 games or more. Draft watchers might have stats.
 
Clarkythelion said:
Since 2008 from draft picks 35 and over the chance of getting a player that plays over 100 games is 1 in 100. I did manage to get all the numbers from each year but wont bore you, but on average about 18 kids picked after 35 each year "succeed" using that as the criteria.
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I'm confused, is it 1 in 100, or 18 each year? Because both can't be correct.
 
Is there a chance that we look to get up the order tomorrow night and off load our current pick 25 and the Demons 1st in 2021 to either-

A- Grab a draftee we rate highly who slides to a selection in the approx 9-14 range, highly unlikely one of the Fab5 drop ie, McDonald/Thilthorpe/Grainger-Barrass/Hollands/JUH. We may have our eye on a Will Phillips(unlikely)/Archie Perkins/Tanner Bruhn.

And/or.

B- Get in front of a potential bid on Blake Coleman and get an open draft selection in.

I don't think anyone would do a deal if it was our 2021 1st rounder.
 

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jackess said:
Balmers latest phantom has us taking Highmore, Coleman and Walsh

sanfl.com.au

Tom Highmore - SANFL

sanfl.com.au sanfl.com.au
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Highmore was pretty impressive in the SANFL this year. From the bits and pieces I've seen, he seems to play like a Jordan Ridley type at Essendon. Both are that medium defender size (192 cm), strong in the air, and both are capable of getting their hands on the ball and use it well.
 
Jason mp said:
Is there a chance that we look to get up the order tomorrow night and off load our current pick 25 and the Demons 1st in 2021 to either-

A- Grab a draftee we rate highly who slides to a selection in the approx 9-14 range, highly unlikely one of the Fab5 drop ie, McDonald/Thilthorpe/Grainger-Barrass/Hollands/JUH. We may have our eye on a Will Phillips(unlikely)/Archie Perkins/Tanner Bruhn.

And/or.

B- Get in front of a potential bid on Blake Coleman and get an open draft selection in.

I don't think anyone would do a deal if it was our 2021 1st rounder.
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I have brought this up before and it wasn’t greeted with much enthusiasm.
But I think It is a possibility especially if we get to the pick range you suggested and there is someone still on the board that we rate highly.
Especially when teams are apparently looking at getting into next years draft.
 
Johnny Bananas said:
I think they've done the right thing by making championships and the NAB League Under-19 while still allowing 18 year olds to be drafted. Hopefully it leads to most draftees being 19 but the uber-talents like Rowell can still go at 18.
Click to expand...
I would like to see changes as 18 can be a bit young for lots of young lads with talent.
Going into an AFL system often away from home and friends could be a big ask for a lot of these young men.

Maybe they can do something over two days. No not that other strange 2 day format.

Day 1 being 17 to 19 year old's that have not previously been nominated for the draft. The mostly usual draft format.

Day 2 19 to 22 years old previously overlooked but have come on since being overlooked or completely left out of their draft year.
These day 2 players compete at a combine but in their own category. Same day or a different day whatever works for the AFL
All Clubs must take one player from day 2.

I don't think it would take very long for Clubs to opt for more players in day 2 than day 1. Or a 50/50 split over the 2 days
All these young men will know that they have a few more years to improve and still get drafted to fulfill their dream of playing AFL

The mid season draft can still exist in case of excessive injuries.
 
Clarkythelion said:
Agreed. We just have to look back to our premierships against Collingwood, you probably wouldn't call our ruckman elite, gee clark Keating pretty much didn't play until September came around. I think Collingwood at the time just didn't believe you needed a ruckman that you would break even when the ball hit the ground. Well, yes, Brisbane had 3 midfielders that won brownlow medals around the feet of our ruckman and another that should have. It took the pies a long time to correct that but with their $7 million man they might have gone too far given the clean out of salary cap they have had to have.
Click to expand...

Pies did have a ruck drafted with a number one pick
 
Jason mp said:
Is there a chance that we look to get up the order tomorrow night and off load our current pick 25 and the Demons 1st in 2021 to either-

A- Grab a draftee we rate highly who slides to a selection in the approx 9-14 range, highly unlikely one of the Fab5 drop ie, McDonald/Thilthorpe/Grainger-Barrass/Hollands/JUH. We may have our eye on a Will Phillips(unlikely)/Archie Perkins/Tanner Bruhn.

And/or.

B- Get in front of a potential bid on Blake Coleman and get an open draft selection in.

I don't think anyone would do a deal if it was our 2021 1st rounder.
Click to expand...

I think it would be folly to trade out our prized 2021 Melbourne first rounder. I'd be open to trading out our 21 first if it meant moving up from 25 to the low to mid teens
 
Interestingly, Sam Walsh has stated before that it would be his dream to play at AFL level with his brother. Considering the Fitzroy link with his family and his passionate support of the Lions growing up, I wonder if he might consider a move up here one day if we drafted his brother.
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft (December 9) discussion thread

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