List Mgmt. 2020 Draft discussion thread

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Johnny Bananas

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Ironmonger

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Oh yes, great move to shut the gate AFTER the next Buddy Franklin has already bolted. The possibility of that situation was apparent from the start, and these incompetent fools let it fester and are now being reactive. Is it such a hard ask for the AFL execs to set it up properly from the beginning, considering how much they pay themselves?
Yeah, I don't think this bodes well for us. The NGA academies have always been more about politics than anything else, and if it's only a matter of time before momentum starts building that these rules should also apply to northern states academies.

Victorian clubs have no qualms using their political power to maintain a competitive advantage over the rest of the competition. The only solution is for the AFL to stand up for good policy ahead of parochialism, and that would mean abolishing any draft concessions associated with NGAs.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Yeah, I don't think this bodes well for us. The NGA academies have always been more about politics than anything else, and if it's only a matter of time before momentum starts building that these rules should also apply to northern states academies.
If it happens, it happens. It wouldn't have been impossible for us to get Hipwood even if he wasn't eligible for academy bidding, so I'm not too bothered by losing the rights to first round matching. Hard to say if we'd deserve to get access to a Queenslander if they were the #1 prospect, it'd do a lot for support but I can see how it distorts the competition a lot.

Victorian clubs have no qualms using their political power to maintain a competitive advantage over the rest of the competition. The only solution is for the AFL to stand up for good policy ahead of parochialism, and that would mean abolishing any draft concessions associated with NGAs.
I mostly agree. The NGAs were the wrong way to pacify the Vics' bleating, it just created another rort. I'm not sure I'd axe it entirely now though, because if it's reformed it could be a useful way of getting more Asian and African immigrants into the game. It's ridiculous that it was ever applied to Aboriginal people in traditional footy states though, they were already interested in the game. If the aim is to get more resources for Aboriginal kids, there are other ways to do that.
 

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Ironmonger

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If it happens, it happens. It wouldn't have been impossible for us to get Hipwood even if he wasn't eligible for academy bidding, so I'm not too bothered by losing the rights to first round matching. Hard to say if we'd deserve to get access to a Queenslander if they were the #1 prospect, it'd do a lot for support but I can see how it distorts the competition a lot.


I mostly agree. The NGAs were the wrong way to pacify the Vics' bleating, it just created another rort. I'm not sure I'd axe it entirely now though, because if it's reformed it could be a useful way of getting more Asian and African immigrants into the game. It's ridiculous that it was ever applied to Aboriginal people in traditional footy states though, they were already interested in the game. If the aim is to get more resources for Aboriginal kids, there are other ways to do that.
I'm bothered about it, to be honest. First round picks are just as likely to be affected by the factors driving young players to the bigger states. Maybe even more so. I don't see why the remedy for that should exempt first round picks.

It also puts host clubs in the position of wanting their academy players not to do too well in their draft year. It isn't hard to spot the risks there, particularly with the national talent identification system in a fragile spot right now.

On the second point, it's definitely a worthwhile aim. I'm just not sure it's worth retaining any of the current model when no one truly believes it's having an impact.

I probably see more value in the Aboriginal focus, though. I find it hard to believe that there are teenage boys in Melbourne who would play Aussie Rules if they had better access to pathways and had the game promoted to them more, regardless of ethnicity. Footy is everywhere in that city.
 

Johnny Bananas

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I'm bothered about it, to be honest. First round picks are just as likely to be affected by the factors driving young players to the bigger states. Maybe even more so. I don't see why the remedy for that should exempt first round picks.
I don't see our academy as only being the remedy for the go home factor. We had players leaving even while being able to recruit from our academy, same for Gold Coast. Fagan has cracked the code of avoiding go home factor anyway - build a great culture that people won't want to leave, and recruit mostly from the country.

To me, the academy's main purpose is to grow the game by getting local stars to play for the club. The impact of Voss and Aker was magnified because they were locals.

It also puts host clubs in the position of wanting their academy players not to do too well in their draft year. It isn't hard to spot the risks there, particularly with the national talent identification system in a fragile spot right now.
This probably already happens regardless of what round they're going to go in. People speculated that we played Keidean Coleman in defence for most of the last NEAFL season in order for him to not get bid on too highly. In traditional states, academy prospects are also training with a NAB League or state league club that has no incentive for them to not do well.

I probably see more value in the Aboriginal focus, though.
As I've said, they're already in the game, at least in traditional footy states. If the idea is to give them more resources, that cna be done through private school scholarships and centrally run skills programs.

I find it hard to believe that there are teenage boys in Melbourne who would play Aussie Rules if they had better access to pathways and had the game promoted to them more, regardless of ethnicity. Footy is everywhere in that city.
And yet there are Pacific Islanders in Melbourne who chose rugby league over footy, because it was ingrained in their culture. Melbourne has at least 50% of all the Indians and Sri Lankans in Australia, yet I can't think of a single one who has become an AFL player. Lin Jong is the only Asian I can think of too. I definitely think there's a value to NGAs as a marketing tool.
 

mpal6

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And yet there are Pacific Islanders in Melbourne who chose rugby league over footy, because it was ingrained in their culture. Melbourne has at least 50% of all the Indians and Sri Lankans in Australia, yet I can't think of a single one who has become an AFL player. Lin Jong is the only Asian I can think of too. I definitely think there's a value to NGAs as a marketing tool.

This bloke made it, but didn't sustain. Might have been the first Srilankan heritage player.

Agree that NGA definitely helps as a marketing tool.
 

Johnny Bananas

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You could also argue that if top Queenslanders go elsewhere, some of them will return as part of the go home factor too, for example Beams and Lachie Weller.


This bloke made it, but didn't sustain. Might have been the first Srilankan heritage player.

Agree that NGA definitely helps as a marketing tool.
Interesting. He wasn't from Melbourne though, he would have been in the Giants Academy had he been born 10 years later.
 

jackess

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I'd be more than happy for that rule to be extended to the northern academies.

Only issue is the grey area between the picks where you can and can't match.

Perhaps to match a bid in the first round you need a selection within the next 5 to match
 

briztoon

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I’m not sure if I’ve misread the article (twice), or misread people’s comments here, but there is no suggestions that the four Northern clubs will lose priority access to “our” kids in the first round, so I’m unsure why there’s such a discussion.

I do agree the AFL should take control of NGA and Northern academies, and we should have an uncompromised draft.

If a club really wants a kid, trade up for him.

However I can’t see the AFL properly funding academies outside of metropolitan areas, as they are in austerity mode at the moment.
 

Johnny Bananas

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I’m not sure if I’ve misread the article (twice), or misread people’s comments here, but there is no suggestions that the four Northern clubs will lose priority access to “our” kids in the first round, so I’m unsure why there’s such a discussion.
It's a hypothetical. Ironmonger reckons (and I agree with them) that the Vics will start demanding this happen to the northern academies too.
 

Dlions

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It's a hypothetical. Ironmonger reckons (and I agree with them) that the Vics will start demanding this happen to the northern academies too.
I think the difference is that the Northern academies pay for and development these kids for years before they are drafted.
The NGA kids predominantly are developed by other programs but train with the club every now and then.
 

Ironmonger

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I don't see our academy as only being the remedy for the go home factor. We had players leaving even while being able to recruit from our academy, same for Gold Coast. Fagan has cracked the code of avoiding go home factor anyway - build a great culture that people won't want to leave, and recruit mostly from the country.

To me, the academy's main purpose is to grow the game by getting local stars to play for the club. The impact of Voss and Aker was magnified because they were locals.


This probably already happens regardless of what round they're going to go in. People speculated that we played Keidean Coleman in defence for most of the last NEAFL season in order for him to not get bid on too highly. In traditional states, academy prospects are also training with a NAB League or state league club that has no incentive for them to not do well.


As I've said, they're already in the game, at least in traditional footy states. If the idea is to give them more resources, that cna be done through private school scholarships and centrally run skills programs.


And yet there are Pacific Islanders in Melbourne who chose rugby league over footy, because it was ingrained in their culture. Melbourne has at least 50% of all the Indians and Sri Lankans in Australia, yet I can't think of a single one who has become an AFL player. Lin Jong is the only Asian I can think of too. I definitely think there's a value to NGAs as a marketing tool.
Really great post, Johnny. :thumbsu:

Firstly, I agree the go home factor is not the only purpose for the academy. But its surely the main purpose for the draft concessions, and in fact they are the only thing we have to offset the geographic disadvantages. So I think the concessions should align with the disadvantages.

Secondly, on clubs potentially hiding players, I think there is a substantial difference in the disincentives now versus a hard cut off at the first or either second round. As things stand, the only risk involved is that a player might require more draft picks in order to recruit them. Under the proposal, a club might develop a player over many years and get nothing at all in exchange.

I think a good analogy is the issue of priority picks and tanking. Clubs wouldn't tank for the difference between pick 1 and 2, but the temptation was considered too great if the incentive was a priority pick versus nothing. A substantial perverse incentive brings out behaviour a minor perverse incentive won't necessarily.

The discussion about the suitability of academies for Indigenous or other ethnic groups to me comes back to what an Academy can and can't do.

An Academy can provide top level training to 14-18 year olds where it didn't otherwise exist, and it can provide a clear career pathway. But I don't think it's the best mechanism for breaking into communities where AFL isn't a big deal, or for marketing the game. That is surely better done through schools and other community organisations, and Melbourne is hardly deprived of marketing for AFL within any group.

I don't know a great deal about what specifically holds Indigenous players back, but I'm pretty sure access to those tangible resources is a factor in some places. But that's not the case in Melbourne, with its enormous contingent of local footy clubs and footy obsessed private schools.

It'd be great to have South Asian athletes in the AFL, but it doesn't appear as though we're losing them to other football codes. The impression I get is that support for the game in that community just grows and grows, and it's only a matter of time.

Pacific Islanders might well be another story, but to be fair they're a small community, and they're not producing a lot of professional athletes for other sports either.

One of the most high profile Pacific Islander athletes from Melbourne is Jordan Uelese. Maybe that's the type of person you had in mind as someone AFL could pinch. But he's a good illustration to me of why an academy would make little difference. Uelese attended St Kevins. That's a big rugby school, but it's an even bigger AFL school. Every day he rocked up to an environment where his mates were talking about footy, and probably playing footy on the weekend. If he wanted to pursue AFL he definitely could have found support around him to do that. But he didn't.

So I don't think an academy would make a difference in that circumstance, or in the many other circumstances where young Melburnians already have access to many of the things an academy provides.

EDIT: Something I just learned: 'BigFooty' autocorrects to 'Bigfooty' on this site, no matter what you do. Annoying.

EDIT X2: The insanity of my edited comment above is now clear to me. Bigger. footy without the full stop autocorrects to Bigfooty.
 
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briztoon

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Really great post, Johnny. :thumbsu:

Firstly, I agree the go home factor is not the only purpose for the academy. But its surely the main purpose for the draft concessions, and in fact they are the only thing we have to offset the geographic disadvantages. So I think the concessions should align with the disadvantages.

Secondly, on clubs potentially hiding players, I think there is a substantial difference in the disincentives now versus a hard cut off at the first or either second round. As things stand, the only risk involved is that a player might require more draft picks in order to recruit them. Under the proposal, a club might develop a player over many years and get nothing at all in exchange.

I think a good analogy is the issue of priority picks and tanking. Clubs wouldn't tank for the difference between pick 1 and 2, but the temptation was considered too great if the incentive was a priority pick versus nothing. A substantial perverse incentive brings out behaviour a minor perverse incentive won't necessarily.

The discussion about the suitability of academies for Indigenous or other ethnic groups to me comes back to what an Academy can and can't do.

An Academy can provide top level training to 14-18 year olds where it didn't otherwise exist, and it can provide a clear career pathway. But I don't think it's the best mechanism for breaking into communities where AFL isn't a big deal, or for marketing the game. That is surely better done through schools and other community organisations, and Melbourne is hardly deprived of marketing for AFL within any group.

I don't know a great deal about what specifically holds Indigenous players back, but I'm pretty sure access to those tangible resources is a factor in some places. But that's not the case in Melbourne, with its enormous contingent of local footy clubs and footy obsessed private schools.

It'd be great to have South Asian athletes in the AFL, but it doesn't appear as though we're losing them to other football codes. The impression I get is that support for the game in that community just grows and grows, and it's only a matter of time.

Pacific Islanders might well be another story, but to be fair they're a small community, and they're not producing a lot of professional athletes for other sports either.

One of the most high profile Pacific Islander athletes from Melbourne is Jordan Uelese. Maybe that's the type of person you had in mind as someone AFL could pinch. But he's a good illustration to me of why an academy would make little difference. Uelese attended St Kevins. That's a big rugby school, but it's an even bigger AFL school. Every day he rocked up to an environment where his mates were talking about footy, and probably playing footy on the weekend. If he wanted to pursue AFL he definitely could have found support around him to do that. But he didn't.

So I don't think an academy would make a difference in that circumstance, or in the many other circumstances where young Melburnians already have access to many of the things an academy provides.

EDIT: Something I just learned: 'BigFooty' autocorrects to 'Bigfooty' on this site, no matter what you do. Annoying.
In regards to the bolded bit.

That’s genuinely questionable in regards to the Lions, from what I’ve been told, from multiple people now.
 

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Johnny Bananas

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Pacific Islanders might well be another story, but to be fair they're a small community, and they're not producing a lot of professional athletes for other sports either.
There are a few who have made it into league as well as union (Fonua, Tonumaipea). Do you not think the preference Uesele had for union was influenced by lots of Polynesian people being present in the professional ranks of that code, but very few being present in the AFL? Footy hasn't permeated that culture yet. Who knows, perhaps some of those who didn't make it to the professional ranks in union or league would have if they played footy primarily as a kid.
 

Ironmonger

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There are a few who have made it into league as well as union (Fonua, Tonumaipea). Do you not think the preference Uesele had for union was influenced by lots of Polynesian people being present in the professional ranks of that code, but very few being present in the AFL? Footy hasn't permeated that culture yet. Who knows, perhaps some of those who didn't make it to the professional ranks in union or league would have if they played footy primarily as a kid.
I do agree that might be a factor - although Uesele presumably managed to get through high school without a lot of Polynesian people around him - but I don't think academies will make any difference to the number of Pacific Islanders in the league. I just don't think they offer anything that isn't already available.
 

Johnny Bananas

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Getting back to prospects, I heard Cal Twomey describe Jack Carroll from East Fremantle as being similar to Hugh McCluggage. Mitch Robbo is really showing his age this season, which might open up a wing spot in a year or two, and it'd be good having a McCluggage-type on each wing.

I got some opinions on Carroll from draft watchers PMBangers and eDPS. This is what they had to say:

Great minds think alike, he doesn’t hit the scoreboard quite as regularly as McClug did but is certainly in that mould.
I'm not a massive fan of comparisons just because people get nitpicky, but I do see them playing a similar role as a true winger with capacity to go forward or into the centre circle. Carroll relys more on his game sense and composure to win footy and clearances than athletic traits, so if thats how you view Clug then it's accurate
I prefer him as a wingman/forward but it’s been good to see that he can still win his own ball in the guts.
PMBangers also noted that Carroll has played a lot as a ruck rover this year, but has great skills in space. AFL Draft Central (run by eDPS and Pie 4 Life) describes him as very strong at kicking and decision making. I notice he regularly seems to get 4-5 inside 50s per game and the same number of tackles.
 

briztoon

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Panthera

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I’m more interested in, a) his next 12, and b) who were the two in the top 12 not on par with his?
Still VERY early, players will go up and down the rankings a lot more than usual this year.

I'd be surprised if more than 15 of those 25 were in Cal's final 25.
 

jackess

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Miers, Clark, Constable and Fogarty aren't SFA.
Really? A small forward, an outside mid and 2 that aren't getting games are hardly going to replace GAJ, Selwood, Danger, Hawkins, Taylor, Blicavs, Guthrie, Duncan, Steven, Menegola, Dalhaus, Rohan, etc. when they retire in the next 2-5 years
 

Quigley

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Miers, Clark, Constable and Fogarty aren't SFA.
Miers is a good little player and Clark could be. The other two are very ordinary imo. The one I like the best of their young talent is Parfitt. Ratugolea is an interesting player with a high ceiling too actually. Overall though their young talent is close to the bottom of league.
 

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