Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[GrommoT]

I don't think anyone analyzing our squad seriously could look at our forward line and think "yep, that's good enough for a flag"

There are question marks over every single player in the forward line. Walker is cooked, Lynch is almost cooked, Himmelberg and Fogarty are no certainties to make it, Stengle may inject himself out of the squad, McAdam is already 25 and we don't have anyone else of note.

I'm not too concerned about the decision between midfielders and forwards. We need both. There are holes across our entire squad.

And looking at what's avaialble this and next year, it makes sense to grab a tall at #1 this year (please FSM give us pick #2 also)

2020
KPFs likely elite ..... Thilthorpe & McDonald
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... Hollands & Philips
MIDs maybe elite ... O'Driscoll, Maher, Ford, Poulter, Bruhn, Perkins ...
AFC early r1 picks .. 1, maybe 2
AFC mid r1 picks .... 1
AFC early r2 picks .. 2, maybe 3

2021
KPFs likely elite ..... NONE known
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... TBD
MIDs maybe elite ... Horne, Sonsie, Rachele, Rentsch, Roberts (2021 meant to be MIDs rich)
AFC early r1 picks .. 1 (probably)
AFC early r2 picks .. 1 (probably)

 

[NTRabbit]

Tasmanian key defender from a great family

 

[Golumless]

Just putting it out there,

I feel most posters in the McDonald, Thilthope bandwagon are hanging hopes that we are going to land a Lance Franklin

23

Lance Franklin

Age

37

Ht

199cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.6

4star

G

3.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

superstar that won games off his own accord....

But football has is heading away from mandatory superstar key forwards and this is why I wouldn't risk our best ever pick when we can get through other avenues a reasonably good 196/200cm unit that can play a target that will tap it down to go quality goal kicking midfielders.

Holland's & Phillips are easy the best picks for us.

Ah yes, ignoring that every team who made the grand final bar Adelaide and Dogs (noting Adelaide managed to get nearly 100 goals out of its key forward pairing and the Dogs were a fluke) have had a key forward in the top 5 of either the leading goal kicking table, or the average per game table.

This "demise" of the mandatory superstar key forward is not only grossly exaggerated, it's just plain wrong. They're super important today, and they're going to be even more so tomorrow as surge football gets more and more refined.

 

[Mismatched]

I believe the Crows need a Hollands more than a Thiltorpe, and I don't believe Thilthorpe is a #1 pick.
But If the Crows do pick him at 1 then we need to back their judgement on this, and give the Kid time,
However, I will say this I rate Thilthorpe over McDonald only due to what have seen when they play in losing teams, I find watching how the player go in losing teams tells me more about them. It easy to look good when your winning.

I tend to agree. Moving forward, one of the key things we lack IMO is that bigger bodied mid who can go forward and create a marking target and kick goals. This is your Dusty, Danger, Petracca type, Jarman provided similar for us in 97/98, Stevie Johnson for Geelong, Ricciuto did it well for a number of years. These types do not grow on trees and IMO if you have the opportunity to draft one, you need to take the opportunity. Whilst I agree Himmelberg and Fogarty haven't quite set the world on fire, but IMO they're more than adequate for the time being, especially if we can support them with a gun medium mid/forward.

End of the day, I'd be pretty comfortable with either of the big 3 available.

 

[1990crow]

And looking at what's avaialble this and next year, it makes sense to grab a tall at #1 this year (please FSM give us pick #2 also)

2020
KPFs likely elite ..... Thilthorpe & McDonald
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... Hollands & Philips
MIDs maybe elite ... O'Driscoll, Maher, Ford, Poulter, Bruhn, Perkins ...
AFC early r1 picks .. 1, maybe 2
AFC mid r1 picks .... 1
AFC early r2 picks .. 2, maybe 3

2021
KPFs likely elite ..... NONE known
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... TBD
MIDs maybe elite ... Horne, Sonsie, Rachele, Rentsch, Roberts (2021 meant to be MIDs rich)
AFC early r1 picks .. 1 (probably)
AFC early r2 picks .. 1 (probably)

Ideal scenario..

Pick 1. Logan McDonald.
Pick 2. Elijah Hollands (Brouch compo).

Pick 21 and 30 to Dogs for Pick 13.
Pick 9 and 13 to Hawks for Pick 4.
Pick 4. Riley Thilthorpe.

Pick 22 live trade for a first next year (Atkins compo)
Seedsman for a third rounder.
Pick 40 and Seedsman pick to GWS for Hately (Hartigan compo)
Jake Kelly

29

Jake Kelly

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

157.8

2star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

104.1

2star

D

14.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.2

5star

MG

107.0

2star

to Bombers for Fantasia or via third party for pick.
Borlase, Edwards and Newchurch in.
Keays upgraded.

Out: Kelly, Hartigan, Seedsman, Atkins, B.Crouch, Knight, Gibbs, Galluci (to Rookie list), Davis, Poholke, Wilson, Taylor

Round 1.

Brown Talia Doedee
Milera McAsey McPherson
Smith Crouch Sholl
O'Brien Hately Laird
Lynch Himmelburg McAdam
Fantasia Fogarty McDonald
Keays Jones Schoenberg
Hamill

 

[ad victoriam]

aaaa

And looking at what's avaialble this and next year, it makes sense to grab a tall at #1 this year (please FSM give us pick #2 also)

2020
KPFs likely elite ..... Thilthorpe & McDonald
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... Hollands & Philips
MIDs maybe elite ... O'Driscoll, Maher, Ford, Poulter, Bruhn, Perkins ...
AFC early r1 picks .. 1, maybe 2
AFC mid r1 picks .... 1
AFC early r2 picks .. 2, maybe 3

2021
KPFs likely elite ..... NONE known
KPFs maybe elite ... NONE known
MIDs likely elite ..... TBD
MIDs maybe elite ... Horne, Sonsie, Rachele, Rentsch, Roberts (2021 meant to be MIDs rich)
AFC early r1 picks .. 1 (probably)
AFC early r2 picks .. 1 (probably)

Mate, we have no idea if there any Elite to Agrade KPT in 2021,
Apart from Mutineer (who could probably name a few.) Who actually remembers 2019 under 16's I watch a few games and there were a couple of talls in those games I would rate, Unfortunately, we did not get to see them this year,
2021 is not a totally Mid draft, there are a bunch of goalkicking small forwards and one or two talls that will be at the top end of that draft.
Your making it sound like there will be no Talls if we miss out this year.

 

[DJ75]

For those who are super keen on Hollands (a half forward who might be a midfielder) at pick 1, should we perhaps take a look at Cam Raynor as a word of caution?

 

[ad victoriam]

For those who are super keen on Hollands (a half forward who might be a midfielder) at pick 1, should we perhaps take a look at Cam Raynor as a word of caution?

Why Different players,

 

[Mutineer]

For those who are super keen on Hollands (a half forward who might be a midfielder) at pick 1, should we perhaps take a look at Cam Raynor as a word of caution?

Nope, the only worry with Lij is the ACL, nothing else is of any concern....he's a gun prospect and if the ACL has no impact on his physical abilities he's a sure thing as that mercurial mid/forward.

 

[Crow Envy]

Further to the debate on whether key forwards are important, ask Collingwood

 

[Rory Walkerfield]

Unpopular opinion - Logan McDonald looks like another Josh Jenkins to me.

 

[1990crow]

Further to the debate on whether key forwards are important, ask Collingwood

Elite midfield. Bog average forward line. If they had a good key forward in 2018 they win that flag.

 

[tinman]

Just putting it out there,

I feel most posters in the McDonald, Thilthope bandwagon are hanging hopes that we are going to land a Lance Franklin

23

Lance Franklin

Age

37

Ht

199cm

Wt

106kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

11.0

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.6

4star

G

3.1

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.6

3star

K

7.4

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

superstar that won games off his own accord....

But football has is heading away from mandatory superstar key forwards and this is why I wouldn't risk our best ever pick when we can get through other avenues a reasonably good 196/200cm unit that can play a target that will tap it down to go quality goal kicking midfielders.

Holland's & Phillips are easy the best picks for us.

With another pre-season I hope that we see a lot more out of Chayce Jone's next year

 

[hey shorty]

Elite midfield. Bog average forward line. If they had a good key forward in 2018 they win that flag.

Which proves you need both

 

[1990crow]

Unpopular opinion - Logan McDonald looks like another Josh Jenkins to me.

Highly unpopular opinion. That's like comparing Connor Rozee to Zac Dawson.
Not even remotely similar talent.

 

[Crow Envy]

Elite midfield. Bog average forward line. If they had a good key forward in 2018 they win that flag.

And why they are after Cameron, along with Geelong.

 

[huludicidal]

For those who are super keen on Hollands (a half forward who might be a midfielder) at pick 1, should we perhaps take a look at Cam Raynor as a word of caution?

Rayner is a complete disaster for a Pick 1, I agree with you.

But I strongly believe these two are very different players, AND you add to that the fact that we will inevitably gift Hollands ample opportunities IN THE MIDFIELD with the upcoming departure of B Crouch, the phasing our of Sloane, the fact that Keays is somewhat of a stop-gap option in there, the fact that the coach clearly doesn’t rate Seed, and the departure of Atkins.

Also, I know many don’t place much stock in this sort of stuff, but i heard a lengthy interview with Hollands on a podcast (probably the Road to the Draft one, I can’t recall), and this is one of the most impressive 18 year olds I have ever heard speak in my life. He speaks like someone 10 years his senior (reminds me of Nat Fyfe in this regard), and this sort of thing goes a long way in learning how to adapt to gameplans and new roles IMO. He is clearly a highly intelligent unit.

We’ve all seen the highlights videos, we can all see the talent is there. Dual-sided, penetrating kick, high footy IQ, clean hands, 188-192cm who can play mid (scope for inside or outside) or forward. It’s very enticing, and we just don’t have anyone else on our list who ticks all of these boxes.

I don’t think Rayner ticks the high footy IQ box (and never did), and he’s nowhere near as dual-sided either.

 

[Murray2503]

Ideal scenario..

Pick 1. Logan McDonald.
Pick 2. Elijah Hollands (Brouch compo).

Pick 21 and 30 to Dogs for Pick 13.
Pick 9 and 13 to Hawks for Pick 4.
Pick 4. Riley Thilthorpe.

Pick 22 live trade for a first next year (Atkins compo)
Seedsman for a third rounder.
Pick 40 and Seedsman pick to GWS for Hately (Hartigan compo)
Jake Kelly

29

Jake Kelly

Age

29

Ht

190cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.5

4star

K

8.3

3star

HB

6.3

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

157.8

2star

D

8.1

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

104.1

2star

D

14.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

5.8

4star

M

6.0

5star

T

4.2

5star

MG

107.0

2star

to Bombers for Fantasia or via third party for pick.
Borlase, Edwards and Newchurch in.
Keays upgraded.

Out: Kelly, Hartigan, Seedsman, Atkins, B.Crouch, Knight, Gibbs, Galluci (to Rookie list), Davis, Poholke, Wilson, Taylor

Round 1.

Brown Talia Doedee
Milera McAsey McPherson
Smith Crouch Sholl
O'Brien Hately Laird
Lynch Himmelburg McAdam
Fantasia Fogarty McDonald
Keays Jones Schoenberg
Hamill

I like your suggestion to get pick 4 from the Hawks. Would like to end up with 1 and 4 plus whatever we get for Brad if we trade him. Still think he will most likely stay but if he goes to Geelong I think it's pick 11 or 13 as we won't get pick 2. With 1 and 4 I reckon they will go Hollands/Phillips and Thilthorpe or McDonald and Hollands/Phillips.
With pick 11?(pick for brad if he leaves) I think we would be looking at one of Perkins, Henry or possibly DGB if he slides. Would take DGB first if available as I don't see McAsey staying long term and don't rate Butts at this stage. DGB is the closest thing I've seen to Jeremy Mcgovern in a draft.
After rewatching Phillips highlights I feel they may go for him if Matt is on the move this year or next. I can't see Matt leaving this year but he may be off end of next once he is a free agent. Phillips is non stop at the ball and the best ball winning mid in the draft. Because they are trading in Hately though they may go for Hollands instead but time will tell.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Unpopular opinion - Logan McDonald looks like another Josh Jenkins to me.

I'm actually thinking McDonald is more that leadup 3rd tall in the Adel Tom Lynch mode

I'm not a fan TBH

The top picks have always excelled in the U17 All-Star games .....if not they have been extensively discussed by the commentators about background strength .....McDonald was not even mentioned throughout the game

Thilthorpe was extensively talked about and performed admirably as you'd expect of a top 10 pick

 

[WaynesWorld19]

For those who are super keen on Hollands (a half forward who might be a midfielder) at pick 1, should we perhaps take a look at Cam Raynor as a word of caution?

Not a good comparison .......Raynor is due to no tank

The better comparison with Raynor is Petracca ......Petracca in the 2014 draft, took 5 years b4 he knuckled down and trained hard enough to go into the midfield

Both walked into the AFL thinking natural talent at U18 level would carry thru to AFL

 

[Peter Doherty]

I'm actually thinking McDonald is more that leadup 3rd tall in the Adel Tom Lynch mode

I'm not a fan TBH

The top picks have always excelled in the U17 All-Star games .....if not they have been extensively discussed by the commentators about background strength .....McDonald was not even mentioned throughout the game

Thilthorpe was extensively talked about and performed admirably as you'd expect of a top 10 pick

If we were to take Thilthorpe or McDonald I'd be preferring Thilthorpe for his superior contested marking.

I'm just not sure about taking a tall forward with pick 2 who is not a great contested mark.

 

[CROUCH #2]

Ah yes, ignoring that every team who made the grand final bar Adelaide and Dogs (noting Adelaide managed to get nearly 100 goals out of its key forward pairing and the Dogs were a fluke) have had a key forward in the top 5 of either the leading goal kicking table, or the average per game table.

This "demise" of the mandatory superstar key forward is not only grossly exaggerated, it's just plain wrong. They're super important today, and they're going to be even more so tomorrow as surge football gets more and more refined.

I respect your views but it is a huge risk picking a tall with number 1.

I'll get stung with this hypothetical but its like having a choice between a Dustin Martin or Tom Lynch who were top 10 picks retrospectively...

 

[baldandbroke]

Are people on here actually writing off Fog and Jones?

Funny how the kids get stomped while trying to get their feet in THE WORST TEAM IN THE COMP.

We were deplorable throughout most of the year. Look at Himmelberg if you want a reminder that giving players some time is a good practice.

I'm sure many posters on here were thinking that McPherson was a write off too.

When you rebuild, you tend to need MORE patience than normal. I know we are sick of waiting (22 years sucks) but we need to reset and think about building a base in a very clear and structured manner. No quick fixes people. Not gonna happen. (Cough ... Power .... Cough)

Let's give these young players every chance to become cogs in the machine.

Add some top end class with our draft hand this year, trade in some needs in 2021/2022 and have a shot at it from 2023 onwards.

 

[Crow Envy]

I respect your views but it is a huge risk picking a tall with number 1.

I'll get stung with this hypothetical but its like having a choice between a Dustin Martin or Tom Lynch who were top 10 picks retrospectively...

Dusty is one of the best players to have ever played the game, you don’t get one of those every year so it’s not a relevant comparison

 

[Scorpus]

If we were to take Thilthorpe or McDonald I'd be preferring Thilthorpe for his superior contested marking.

I'm just not sure about taking a tall forward with pick 2 who is not a great contested mark.

Agreed. If McDonald has shown no evidence of contested marking ability (no idea personally, I haven't seen the footage) then he definitely isn't worth pick 1

Forwards that can't mark under pressure, from delivery that's under pressure (eg. high balls), will get exposed in finals