Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[hendo8888]

View attachment 966872

How does a first round compensation pick look, if GWS do not have a first round pick ?

So Zac Williams lost 8 games through injury this year and 22 games in 2018 through injury. He's 26 years old and they're looking to get a first rounder for him.
Brad Crouch lost 7 games this year and 22 games in 2018 through injury. He's 26 years old and we're looking to get a first rounder for him.
Sounds fair.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

So Zac Williams lost 8 games through injury this year and 22 games in 2018 through injury. He's 26 years old and they're looking to get a first rounder for him.
Brad Crouch lost 7 games this year and 22 games in 2018 through injury. He's 26 years old and we're looking to get a first rounder for him.
Sounds fair.

Brad Crouch is more valuable and a better player than Zilliams

 

[DJ75]

View attachment 966872

How does a first round compensation pick look, if GWS do not have a first round pick ?

Bahahahaah "It's good business". No it's terrible business for the Giants. They developed a player from a Rookie pick in to a high level player and now he wants to leave, right as he enters his peak. Oh, sorry, Tom Browne meant it's good for business for Carlton didn't he. What a flog.

 

[hendo8888]

Brad Crouch is more valuable and a better player than Zilliams

Exactly, so it should be a no-brainer that Brad Crouch gets us Pick 2 if he leaves.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Bahahahaah "It's good business". No it's terrible business for the Giants. They developed a player from a Rookie pick in to a high level player and now he wants to leave, right as he enters his peak. Oh, sorry, Tom Browne meant it's good for business for Carlton didn't he. What a flog.

Greenwood / Keath

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Exactly, so it should be a no-brainer that Brad Crouch gets us Pick 2 if he leaves.

You'd think Crouch would get a deal equal to Zilliams ......but we are talking Carlton you know

With all the talk of compromised draft .....I can see clubs really pushing AFL headquarters for very stringent requirements on 1st round compo picks

 

[GROTTO]

You'd think Crouch would get a deal equal to Zilliams ......but we are talking Carlton you know

With all the talk of compromised draft .....I can see clubs really pushing AFL headquarters for very stringent requirements on 1st round compo picks

Carlton and its supporters are the dumbest bunch of f**kwits going around. This is the same Club that paid massive overs for KFC Gov, but are likely to pay unders for a Crouch or Williams.

 

[1990crow]

View attachment 966872

How does a first round compensation pick look, if GWS do not have a first round pick ?

How does Zac Williams earn band 1 but not Brad Crouch

 

[Golumless]

There a Few Talls in this year draft, that the Crows can get latter, What they need is midfielders,

If you were gunning for a premiership in 2021-23, I would agree. However, we're not winning a premiership in 2021 or 2022 or 2023, and that allows us more flexibility. We need to be thinking "what does this side look like in 2025-30".

Really though, we're probably in a greater need for a tall forward than we are with midfielders at this point of our rebuild as its certainly a house built on sand at this juncture. We have Tex who is finished. Himmelberg who has broken out, but we need to be very wary of a regression as his game lives and dies with his hands (and will probably cap out as a 2nd KPF instead of being the main guy), and a hodgepodge of other options, all which we have no general idea if they'll make it? if their ceiling is high enough to be that main guy? or in cases such as Fogarty and Worrell, are they even key forwards at the peak of their career? It's definitely a group crying out for an elite forward to glue them all together. Not only that, but by conventional wisdom, forwards take longer to develop than midfielders.

The midfield is an equally problematic area as our forward line. Matt Crouch and Laird can anchor it for the next half a decade, Keays is similar to Himmelberg in the break out season, but could be a one hit wonder, Schoenberg is looking like an elite talent, and other players who have a decently high ceiling (at worse case), but question marks on if they are able to work it out (Jones, McHenry, Milera, Sholl (outside), Hamill (outside) and even O'Connor/Gollant). It definitely needs reinforcement though, though its quite likely to look a lot better by the end of the next season just due to the influx of depth + an extra pre-season to that initial group of players.

Considering we're probably hitting a strong midfield draft in 2021 (from what I know about it, though as always, there is a disclaimer that there are much more knowledgable people than I with drafts), I would be going key forward pick 1, midfielder pick 8, midfielder pick 20, trade pick 30 for Hately, then NGAs cover the rest. That's probably the "have your cake and eat it too" method for us finding potentially elite talents in the areas we need too. Especially as I'm sure there have been some kids who could have challenged for the best midfielder title in the draft in the 10-30 group if they had the national champs.

View attachment 966872

How does a first round compensation pick look, if GWS do not have a first round pick ?

Will be after the GWS pick (which is now ours) if band one. Will be after the grand final winner pick if band two.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

We already have a Zane Trew type big bodied inside mid with Ronin O'Connor waiting in the wings...the big difference Ronin Connor has burst speed from the contest.....and there seems to be a strong chance we are into Jackson Hately, another big bodied inside mid. The player we need if we're not taking Hollands should be Archie Perkins (I'd take both) , a midfielder/forward with speed, agility and a ton of X factor, not to mention his great decision making and ability to move the ball on in a blink of the eye.

Agree - they are the 2 I like as mid / forwards

 

[Crow till I die]

View attachment 966872

How does a first round compensation pick look, if GWS do not have a first round pick ?

band 2 - end of 1st round it is then

 

[crow2crow]

You'd think Crouch would get a deal equal to Zilliams ......but we are talking Carlton you know

With all the talk of compromised draft .....I can see clubs really pushing AFL headquarters for very stringent requirements on 1st round compo picks

yes they are but it’s a bit late now. don’t trust afl to be consistent

 

[Jarman3]

Bahahahaah "It's good business". No it's terrible business for the Giants. They developed a player from a Rookie pick in to a high level player and now he wants to leave, right as he enters his peak. Oh, sorry, Tom Browne meant it's good for business for Carlton didn't he. What a flog.

Yeah, that's a bizarre perspective - "drafted as a rookie, get a 1st round pick back!". This isn't the stock market, the goal isn't to buy low and sell high - the goal is to build a strong team. If you're losing a good player that you want to keep, it's not "good business". Even if you draft another good one with that pick, you're looking at a couple of years development before he reaches the same level as the guy who's leaving, and that's a heavy blow if you think you're in the window, because by the time the new player is reaching his peak, the rest of the list is falling off the other end.

Results this year say they're not in the window, but they've got the talent to be right back in the mix next year. Unless they lose all that talent in a mass exodus this year - they might get a whole lot of good draft picks back, but losing a lot of good players in their prime in exchange for draft picks is almost forcing them to the rebuild stage when they should be at least another 2-3 years away from that .

Good business indeed.

 

[crow2crow]

If you were gunning for a premiership in 2021-23, I would agree. However, we're not winning a premiership in 2021 or 2022 or 2023, and that allows us more flexibility. We need to be thinking "what does this side look like in 2025-30".

Really though, we're probably in a greater need for a tall forward than we are with midfielders at this point of our rebuild as its certainly a house built on sand at this juncture. We have Tex who is finished. Himmelberg who has broken out, but we need to be very wary of a regression as his game lives and dies with his hands (and will probably cap out as a 2nd KPF instead of being the main guy), and a hodgepodge of other options, all which we have no general idea if they'll make it? if their ceiling is high enough to be that main guy? or in cases such as Fogarty and Worrell, are they even key forwards at the peak of their career? It's definitely a group crying out for an elite forward to glue them all together. Not only that, but by conventional wisdom, forwards take longer to develop than midfielders.

The midfield is an equally problematic area as our forward line. Matt Crouch and Laird can anchor it for the next half a decade, Keays is similar to Himmelberg in the break out season, but could be a one hit wonder, Schoenberg is looking like an elite talent, and other players who have a decently high ceiling (at worse case), but question marks on if they are able to work it out (Jones, McHenry, Milera, Sholl (outside), Hamill (outside) and even O'Connor/Gollant). It definitely needs reinforcement though, though its quite likely to look a lot better by the end of the next season just due to the influx of depth + an extra pre-season to that initial group of players.

Considering we're probably hitting a strong midfield draft in 2021 (from what I know about it, though as always, there is a disclaimer that there are much more knowledgable people than I with drafts), I would be going key forward pick 1, midfielder pick 8, midfielder pick 20, trade pick 30 for Hately, then NGAs cover the rest. That's probably the "have your cake and eat it too" method for us finding potentially elite talents in the areas we need too. Especially as I'm sure there have been some kids who could have challenged for the best midfielder title in the draft in the 10-30 group if they had the national champs.



Will be after the GWS pick (which is now ours) if band one. Will be after the grand final winner pick if band two.

disagree with your pick analysis. we took talls in the last draft. we need some elite mids with outside speed. how many talls kick bags of goals these day’s anyway? it’s a midfielders game these days.

 

[Mutineer]

Agree - they are the 2 I like as mid / forwards

Zavier Maher is the "pure" midfielder I hope we're looking seriously at, explosive speed from the contest and a mid that lowers his eyes and hits up players on the move with his excellent foot skills, not a chuck it on the boot type like most mids....Would have flown up the draft boards IMO working in tandem with his Bushies teammate Elijah Hollands if the NAB League had gone ahead.

 

[crow2crow]

Zavier Maher is the "pure" midfielder I hope we're looking seriously at, explosive speed from the contest and a mid that lowers his eyes and hits up players on the move with his excellent foot skills, not a chuck it on the boot type like most mids....Would have flown up the draft boards IMO working in tandem with his Bushies teammate Elijah Hollands if the NAB League had gone ahead.

is there any footage of maher I not seen him - can you post it if there is

 

[Mutineer]

If you were gunning for a premiership in 2021-23, I would agree. However, we're not winning a premiership in 2021 or 2022 or 2023, and that allows us more flexibility. We need to be thinking "what does this side look like in 2025-30".

Really though, we're probably in a greater need for a tall forward than we are with midfielders at this point of our rebuild as its certainly a house built on sand at this juncture. We have Tex who is finished. Himmelberg who has broken out, but we need to be very wary of a regression as his game lives and dies with his hands (and will probably cap out as a 2nd KPF instead of being the main guy), and a hodgepodge of other options, all which we have no general idea if they'll make it? if their ceiling is high enough to be that main guy? or in cases such as Fogarty and Worrell, are they even key forwards at the peak of their career? It's definitely a group crying out for an elite forward to glue them all together. Not only that, but by conventional wisdom, forwards take longer to develop than midfielders.

The midfield is an equally problematic area as our forward line. Matt Crouch and Laird can anchor it for the next half a decade, Keays is similar to Himmelberg in the break out season, but could be a one hit wonder, Schoenberg is looking like an elite talent, and other players who have a decently high ceiling (at worse case), but question marks on if they are able to work it out (Jones, McHenry, Milera, Sholl (outside), Hamill (outside) and even O'Connor/Gollant). It definitely needs reinforcement though, though its quite likely to look a lot better by the end of the next season just due to the influx of depth + an extra pre-season to that initial group of players.

Considering we're probably hitting a strong midfield draft in 2021 (from what I know about it, though as always, there is a disclaimer that there are much more knowledgable people than I with drafts), I would be going key forward pick 1, midfielder pick 8, midfielder pick 20, trade pick 30 for Hately, then NGAs cover the rest. That's probably the "have your cake and eat it too" method for us finding potentially elite talents in the areas we need too. Especially as I'm sure there have been some kids who could have challenged for the best midfielder title in the draft in the 10-30 group if they had the national champs.



Will be after the GWS pick (which is now ours) if band one. Will be after the grand final winner pick if band two.

Keays is not going to be a one hit wonder, this lad wants it too much not to succeed...he'll just get better...I really hope we had a contract in front of him "yesterday".

 

[Mutineer]

is there any footage of maher I not seen him - can you post it if there is

The U17's Future Stars game is on youtube as are some Murray Bushrangers NAB League games would be my suggestion until Twomey pulls his finger out with the AFL draft hub updates.

 

[crow2crow]

How does Zac Williams earn band 1 but not Brad Crouch

first round can mean band 1 or 2 big difference though in the pick
we don’t yet know we aren’t getting band 1 for brad. but it’s simple no band 1 let’s keep brad and build around him. seriously he’s fine in staying. williams wants out of there asap.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

How does Zac Williams earn band 1 but not Brad Crouch

Only if Carlton sell their soul ......Zilliams has a worse injury history than Brad

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Will be after the GWS pick (which is now ours) if band one. Will be after the grand final winner pick if band two.

But that pick no longer belongs to them ......I assume you're saying where GWS's normal pick would be (9) ....so the compensation pick would be #10

 

[LC40]

I'm definitely still on the get a KPF first train.

Tex gone (or should be at any rate), I am beginning to struggle to see Fog as the long term no. 1 KPF and no standout mid prospect we have access to is the selling points.

Yeah I'm undecided, the game against Richmond really showed to me we need an upgrade at centre half forward. As a team we have to win a fair share of contests at that position or bring the ball down for our advantage. As a bail out position having a strong presence at CHF with a chaos kick also puts so much pressure on the opposition.
As everyone here has pointed out, we definitely need a quality mid preferably a player comfortable around goals.
Having pick 1 and 2 adds a whole new dimension to our draft strategy.
Until we see what our actual draft hand is concerning B Crouch it's too hard to call which way to go this far out.

 

[hendo8888]

What is the likelihood that if we bid on Campbell, that Sydney turn around and say 'you can have him, we'd rather have Hollands or McDonald'?

 

[Mego Red]

Us bidding massively impacts the Bulldogs .....but has zero impact on Sydney and Campbell

You're right - though us bidding or not impacts both of them.

If we bid on Campbell, Sydney will trade their pick to someone else for points and someone else will pick at 3.

Similar to WB for 13.

If both clubs KNOW we will pick and they're destined to lose their pick, then why not trade it to us?

We can then offer to not bid - so they need less points as well - and they get the player and the highest possible extra value.

 

[crows dude]

What is the likelihood that if we bid on Campbell, that Sydney turn around and say 'you can have him, we'd rather have Hollands or McDonald'?

Wd only do that if we rated him above Hollands and McDonald.