Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[Mutineer]

What is the likelihood that if we bid on Campbell, that Sydney turn around and say 'you can have him, we'd rather have Hollands or McDonald'?

Zero

 

[Mego Red]

So they’d have to use their first pick though to pay for it..

They'll trade that pick to someone else in live trading. SOMEONE will take that pick, just not Sydney. It doesn't push our GWS pick up, though maybe it pushes up pick 20 (if Sydney trade with Geelong or Brisbane, say).

 

[Mego Red]

Outcome 1: We bid on Campbell
Sydney matches it
They get Campbell and their 2nd round pick gets affected a bit

Outcome 2: We don't bid on Campbell
Sydney picks someone with pick 3
Sydney then matches a bid later in the draft for Campbell (possibly going into deficit)
Whoever they pick with pick 3 wouldn't have been picked if we bid on Campbell

No, the most likely is Outcome 1.5.

We bid on Campbell
Sydney livetrade 3 to Geelong for 10 and 15
Sydney matches. 10 and 15 becomes Campbell and 35.
Geelong picks at 3 (now 4)

 

[Mego Red]

You'd think Crouch would get a deal equal to Zilliams ......but we are talking Carlton you know

With all the talk of compromised draft .....I can see clubs really pushing AFL headquarters for very stringent requirements on 1st round compo picks

This is my worry.

 

[LC40]

What is the likelihood that if we bid on Campbell, that Sydney turn around and say 'you can have him, we'd rather have Hollands or McDonald'?

That would be a great result IMO.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What is the likelihood that if we bid on Campbell, that Sydney turn around and say 'you can have him, we'd rather have Hollands or McDonald'?

Zero chance .....but if we don't bid, and I suspect we won't , then I can see North not bidding and Campbell going after Sydney's first pick at #3 ......they'll effectively be getting 2 x 1st round picks this year

 

[Jirkago75]

If you were gunning for a premiership in 2021-23, I would agree. However, we're not winning a premiership in 2021 or 2022 or 2023, and that allows us more flexibility. We need to be thinking "what does this side look like in 2025-30".

Really though, we're probably in a greater need for a tall forward than we are with midfielders at this point of our rebuild as its certainly a house built on sand at this juncture. We have Tex who is finished. Himmelberg who has broken out, but we need to be very wary of a regression as his game lives and dies with his hands (and will probably cap out as a 2nd KPF instead of being the main guy), and a hodgepodge of other options, all which we have no general idea if they'll make it? if their ceiling is high enough to be that main guy? or in cases such as Fogarty and Worrell, are they even key forwards at the peak of their career? It's definitely a group crying out for an elite forward to glue them all together. Not only that, but by conventional wisdom, forwards take longer to develop than midfielders.

The midfield is an equally problematic area as our forward line. Matt Crouch and Laird can anchor it for the next half a decade, Keays is similar to Himmelberg in the break out season, but could be a one hit wonder, Schoenberg is looking like an elite talent, and other players who have a decently high ceiling (at worse case), but question marks on if they are able to work it out (Jones, McHenry, Milera, Sholl (outside), Hamill (outside) and even O'Connor/Gollant). It definitely needs reinforcement though, though its quite likely to look a lot better by the end of the next season just due to the influx of depth + an extra pre-season to that initial group of players.

Considering we're probably hitting a strong midfield draft in 2021 (from what I know about it, though as always, there is a disclaimer that there are much more knowledgable people than I with drafts), I would be going key forward pick 1, midfielder pick 8, midfielder pick 20, trade pick 30 for Hately, then NGAs cover the rest. That's probably the "have your cake and eat it too" method for us finding potentially elite talents in the areas we need too. Especially as I'm sure there have been some kids who could have challenged for the best midfielder title in the draft in the 10-30 group if they had the national champs.



Will be after the GWS pick (which is now ours) if band one. Will be after the grand final winner pick if band two.

Plus picking a forward as our first would leave us lower on the ladder which will help for next year’s draft. Then load up next years on mids


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[WaynesWorld19]

 

[hendo8888]

No, the most likely is Outcome 1.5.

We bid on Campbell
Sydney livetrade 3 to Geelong for 10 and 15
Sydney matches. 10 and 15 becomes Campbell and 35.
Geelong picks at 3 (now 4)

That would be an incredible outcome for Geelong.
Trade Tim Kelly and a 2nd round pick and end up with Pick 4 this year and Pick 16 last year plus a few other steak knives like Josh Jenkins.

 

[70lethal]

We will orchestrated a trade with Sydney and WB or bid.
If we don't we devalue our next picks.
Its pretty bloody simple

 

[Crow till I die]

No, the most likely is Outcome 1.5.

We bid on Campbell
Sydney livetrade 3 to Geelong for 10 and 15
Sydney matches. 10 and 15 becomes Campbell and 35.
Geelong picks at 3 (now 4)

Then they would be better off points wise to trade with us for 8 & 20 for 3 (or 4 if BC leaves) as a bid at pick 1 on Campbell would still leave them with a late 20's pick or thereabouts and a bid at 2 would be even better for them.

 

[Mutineer]

That would be a great result IMO.

And we owe Sydney no favours after the way they royally screwed us over Skirt Tippett....offering us Spudley Jesse White before the s**t hit the fan

 

[Mego Red]

Then they would be better off points wise to trade with us for 8 & 20 for 3 (or 4 if BC leaves) as a bid at pick 1 on Campbell would still leave them with a late 20's pick or thereabouts and a bid at 2 would be even better for them.

Yep, true. Hopefully we can get that across the line.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Zavier Maher is the "pure" midfielder I hope we're looking seriously at, explosive speed from the contest and a mid that lowers his eyes and hits up players on the move with his excellent foot skills, not a chuck it on the boot type like most mids....Would have flown up the draft boards IMO working in tandem with his Bushies teammate Elijah Hollands if the NAB League had gone ahead.

Didn’t have a great kicking day the day of the futures game at the G but his burst speed was great . Reminded me a little of Shoenberg

 

[Thetrader15]

And we owe Sydney no favours after the way they royally screwed us over Skirt Tippett....offering us Spudley Jesse White before the sh*t hit the fan

You're right....Bid on Campbell at pick 1. Lock it in.

 

[hey shorty]

???... if we bid on Campbell before sydneys first rounder we wipe them off the board in the first round..

I wouldn't think he's in the top 5 players in the draft.

 

[Mutineer]

Didn’t have a great kicking day the day of the futures game at the G but his burst speed was great . Reminded me a little of Shoenberg

Quicker than Schoenberg and going to furnish into a bigger unit than Harry. He's the kind burst from congestion/metres gained mid we sadly lack especially when we appear to be leading the race for Hately.

 

[1970crow]

Does the AFL return picks if your 2 picks add up to more than required to match?

 

[NCHammertime]

The above suggests our Crouch and Atkins compo might be combined...? That would have to put aside any doubt about a first rounder.

Can anyone think of a precedent where two players have left a club through FA in a single year to test this??

 

[GrommoT]

I think Sydney will go ok next year. They have had plenty of talent out of there current team that almost rolled the Cats.

I woundnt say rule things out if we get Pick 2 for Brouch. He is the key to everything in this 2020* draft.

I think if Sydney make the finals next year swapping their r1 for our r2 would still be worth it and may make them more willing to do it if they are thinking this.

We may finish just outside the 8 next year so it would be something like a pick 25 to 15 upgrade for a pick 1 to 3 downgrade on our part (where we might still get the players we want anyway).

What they get from us is being able get another top player before Campbell and us not wiping out their draft stock this year to get Campbell.

 

[rocket18]

Has anyone got a list of players who fall out of contract this year?

Surely we are into their ear, we can leverage the PSD pick 1 if we can't get a good deal.

Nice to be on the good side of the bargaining table for a change.

"Take Hartigan or else player X can walk to us for nothing via the PSD"

 

[GROTTO]

Has anyone got a list of players who fall out of contract this year?

Surely we are into their ear, we can leverage the PSD pick 1 if we can't get a good deal.

Nice to be on the good side of the bargaining table for a change.

"Take Hartigan or else player X can walk to us for nothing via the PSD"

What age profile do you think we should be looking at? Under 26 ?

 

[Cleric]

I would trade out a late second for Tom Sparrow. The exact type of mid we need.
Or we play hard and just get him in the PSD.

 

[rocket18]

What age profile do you think we should be looking at? Under 26 ?

Younger, any one coming out of contact - not UFA or FA.

Hopefully we have four or five clubs we are trying to get players out of, we can tell them the same thing regarding PSD.

Time to get our big boy pants on and really get aggressive trading for players that are a need.

 

[Mego Red]

View attachment 967007

The above suggests our Crouch and Atkins compo might be combined...? That would have to put aside any doubt about a first rounder.

Can anyone think of a precedent where two players have left a club through FA in a single year to test this??

This has been answered previously.

Net in this case refers to ins and outs - you subtract the free agents you get from the free agents you've lost, and you receive compo based on the net amount.

If you've just lost free agents, then it is compo for each individual selection.

The AFL had their media outlets explain this earlier this year.