Rumour 2020 Draft Rumour Mill

[Davo-27]

Ha ha ha ha!!!
Cheers. Was getting the Sunday night blues but you’ve fixed it.

i hear ignorance is bliss, i hope you enjoy yourself.

 

[Wild Bill]

Virtually no chance that both would be available but I guess SUNS would go with Thilthorpe mainly because of list needs. SUNS do have some depth in midfield though largely inexperienced. Also Davies from academy is coming in.

I can't see SUNS to include future first in any trade moving up except maybe for McDonald. Still highly improbable.

If Perkins goes to the Hawks then both are a big chance to make it to 5.

 

[piemad1]

Melbourne traded their future first for picks 18/19. Why would they do that just to trade back in to the 2021 draft with a potentially worse pick?

as it wouldn't just be a future first, there would be another added, won't be potentially worse either, can be assured of that.

 

[HinkleysHeroes]

No. We're currently 30 with Hinge, we'll be 35 after the main draft and 36 after the PSD.

Ah ok, thanks for that.

 

[Apex36]

as it wouldn't just be a future first, there would be another added, won't be potentially worse either, can be assured of that.

Your post literally said trade our future first for 18/19. Nothing about any other picks being added. And while you might be pessimistic about next year, the fact is that we performed better than Melbourne without Treloar/Stephenson for most of the year this year. No reason we can’t be thereabouts again, particularly with Howe and Sidebottom returning.

 

[Jirik13]

If Perkins goes to the Hawks then both are a big chance to make it to 5.

Any chance of that happening?

 

[woopedazz]

Is the BT theory a possibility ? (Apologies Brian Taylor it's not you) Bid and Trade:

Adelaide bid on Ugle-Hagan which is matched.

Adelaide trade out pick 2 to the Giants who secure Riley Thilthorpe.

Adelaide secure Zach Reid, Tanner Bruhn and Brayden Cook in the early teens after bids.

(Warning pure speculation is bad for your health)

If we were going to trade Pick 1, why wouldn't we trade it as Pick 1? Pick 1 is worth more than Pick 2. Why would we reduce the value and then trade it?

This makes absolutely no sense to me.

I'm starting to get angry at how little sense this makes to me. Am I missing something here?

You win a car. You decide you want to sell it. Do you A) sell with 0 on the odometer, or B) Push it around the block without turning it on/sitting in it until it reaches 1km. Then sell it.

I'm incensed here.

 

[tenderwarrior]

If we were going to trade Pick 1, why wouldn't we trade it as Pick 1? Pick 1 is worth more than Pick 2. Why would we reduce the value and then trade it?

This makes absolutely no sense to me.

I'm starting to get angry at how little sense this makes to me. Am I missing something here?

You win a car. You decide you want to sell it. Do you A) sell with 0 on the odometer, or B) Push it around the block without turning it on/sitting in it until it reaches 1km. Then sell it.

I'm incensed here.

Yes, you are missing something

 

[Wild Bill]

Any chance of that happening?

There is talk he is a chance. I still think he gets through to ess. He is the only one that may break into the top 5.

 

[Apex36]

If we were going to trade Pick 1, why wouldn't we trade it as Pick 1? Pick 1 is worth more than Pick 2. Why would we reduce the value and then trade it?

This makes absolutely no sense to me.

I'm starting to get angry at how little sense this makes to me. Am I missing something here?

You win a car. You decide you want to sell it. Do you A) sell with 0 on the odometer, or B) Push it around the block without turning it on/sitting in it until it reaches 1km. Then sell it.

I'm incensed here.

Even if it’s pick 2 it’s still pick 1. The value doesn’t diminish just because a kid who was never available in the open draft gets bid on there. Not sure why that’s so hard to understand.

 

[Ah12]

That’s a shame. Doesn’t sound like the sort of character Richmond would want, regardless of ability.

Where does he hope to end up?

You blokes drafted Sydney Stack

44

Sydney Stack

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.7

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

3.0

5star

MG

202.0

3star

D

9.8

2star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.8

4star

MG

133.0

2star

D

16.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

227.4

4star

...

 

[woopedazz]

Even if it’s pick 2 it’s still pick 1.

No. If JUH is picked, then he is judged to be the highest talent and therefore the number 1 draft pick. he is pick 1. Match or no match is inconsequential; it means he is judged as pick 1 and the next player picked is judged as pick 2. If it becomes pick 2, then it is pick 2.

The value doesn’t diminish just because a kid who was never available in the open draft gets bid on there.

No, that's exactly what it does. Draft picks are probability simulators. The player that is picked first has a higher probability of success than the player picked second. The number dictates the likelihood of success and therefore value. The value diminishes based on the number to which the value is assigned, not the name of the player/availability/matched/whatever.

Not sure why that’s so hard to understand.

Because of above.

Conversely, if every team in the competition unanimously agrees that JUH is the best player in the draft and all will select him as such; then Pick 1 becomes Pick 2 and its value depreciated as such. Pick 1 becomes devalued to pick 2 (but Pick 2 will never appreciate in value to pick 1) But that assumes every team is in agreement that JUH is the best. If one team is not in agreement, then that depreciation doesn't work and you've just devalued your first pick for no reason.

As all clubs will never come to the draft day and agree unanimously that one player is every team's pick 1 and shake hands... then you will never know if devaluing your pick is actually a safe bet. With that element of risk --> you would never bid on a pick one you believe would be matched (if you plan on trading it), because you have just devalued your pick without 100% knowing that it was a predetermined outcome.

 

[JayJ20]

The only rumour I hear about Thilthorpe sliding to 9 is the one perpetuated by Crows supporters.

Yeah there is no way Essendon of all teams who just lost Daniher will skip Thilthorpe with all 3 picks.

 

[raffrox]

Hi, I'm looking for the draft rumours thread.

Has anyone seen it?

 

[Apex36]

No. If JUH is picked, then he is judged to be the highest talent and therefore the number 1 draft pick. he is pick 1. Match or no match is inconsequential; it means he is judged as pick 1 and the next player picked is judged as pick 2. If it becomes pick 2, then it is pick 2.


No, that's exactly what it does. Draft picks are probability simulators. The player that is picked first has a higher probability of success than the player picked second. The number dictates the likelihood of success and therefore value. The value diminishes based on the number to which the value is assigned, not the name of the player/availability/matched/whatever.


Because of above.

Conversely, if every team in the competition unanimously agrees that JUH is the best player in the draft and all will select him as such; then Pick 1 becomes Pick 2 and its value depreciated as such. Pick 1 becomes devalued to pick 2 (but Pick 2 will never appreciate in value to pick 1) But that assumes every team is in agreement that JUH is the best. If one team is not in agreement, then that depreciation doesn't work and you've just devalued your first pick for no reason.

As all clubs will never come to the draft day and agree unanimously that one player is every team's pick 1 and shake hands... then you will never know if devaluing your pick is actually a safe bet. With that element of risk --> you would never bid on a pick one you believe would be matched (if you plan on trading it), because you have just devalued your pick without 100% knowing that it was a predetermined outcome.

So you think that a bloke who nobody has access to in the open draft being taken at pick 1, diminishes the value of Adelaides pick, even though every single player on the board that they did have access to will still be there?

The number makes no difference. Clubs aren’t going to consider Adelaides pick less desirable just because an academy kid has been selected.

 

[hairy biker]

Hi, I'm looking for the draft rumours thread.

Has anyone seen it?

 

[robbo1981]

Unless thilthorpes groins are ****ed Adelaide would be crazy to not pick him at 1.
Hopefully they are over thinking it and he goes to North and we can bring him home at some stage

 

[TheVelourFog]

Have heard the Carlton have shown a lot of interest in Malachy Carruthers. Not sure though if that is for the national or rookie draft.

 

[Sarcoidevo]

Have heard the Carlton have shown a lot of interest in Malachy Carruthers. Not sure though if that is for the national or rookie draft.

Finally ...... the new Blaine Boekhorst

Blaine Boekhorst

Age

32

Ht

187cm

Wt

78kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.9

4star

K

8.2

3star

HB

5.7

4star

M

3.3

3star

T

2.4

4star

CL

0.7

3star

No current season stats available

D

12.0

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.6

3star

 

[Tbonefreo]

Yeah but who has mates from playing in other sporting codes whilst living in SA. Which one has friend on crows list. The answer is Holland’s. Furthermore he’s crows fan so zero go home factor.

Shache was a lions supporter fwiw

 

[Rich01]

You blokes drafted Sydney Stack

44

Sydney Stack

Age

25

Ht

179cm

Wt

75kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.5

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

8.7

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

3.0

5star

MG

202.0

3star

D

9.8

2star

K

3.4

1star

HB

6.4

4star

M

1.4

2star

T

2.8

4star

MG

133.0

2star

D

16.2

4star

K

7.2

3star

HB

9.0

5star

M

5.6

5star

T

3.0

5star

MG

227.4

4star

...

Yup, after a two month trial during summer. Tank an interview and they won’t be picked up in the ND by us.

 

[piemad1]

Your post literally said trade our future first for 18/19. Nothing about any other picks being added. And while you might be pessimistic about next year, the fact is that we performed better than Melbourne without Treloar/Stephenson for most of the year this year. No reason we can’t be thereabouts again, particularly with Howe and Sidebottom returning.

Your in dreamland coxy. We are falling down the ladder more each year. Treloar and stevo played games. We had multiple beltings and fell in against west coast. List at 30 so loads of kids will be playing. Only one way to go. Great photo still

 

[ImissFrosty]

Your in dreamland coxy. We are falling down the ladder more each year. Treloar and stevo played games. We had multiple beltings and fell in against west coast. List at 30 so loads of kids will be playing. Only one way to go. Great photo still

You're right, bit of bias here but you'd think Melbourne would finish higher than Collingwood next year at about 80% confidence.

 

[piemad1]

You're right, bit of bias here but you'd think Melbourne would finish higher than Collingwood next year at about 80% confidence.

Yeah it will happen, unfortunately a lot of pies fans are not very bright and can't be realistic where the club are at. This is why i think trading with melbourne for our future first will be a win for clubs, could end up around pick 6 quite easily. Massive for the dees. Pies really need to bring in 4 picks in that 25 range, got so many needs to cover.

 

[ImissFrosty]

Yeah it will happen, unfortunately a lot of pies fans are not very bright and can't be realistic where the club are at. This is why i think trading with melbourne for our future first will be a win for clubs, could end up around pick 6 quite easily. Massive for the dees. Pies really need to bring in 4 picks in that 25 range, got so many needs to cover.

It would be a massive win for both but we won't do it because we traded into this year's draft. Goodwin's job is on the line and we're addressing list needs via the draft to contend next year. Worried about Collingwood though, a lot of teams are improving and not many on the down slope. Could see a massive drop off, particularly with not much young talent coming in which is why this trade would be fantastic for Collingwood.