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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Thread

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Knightmare said:
The top-4 in some order should McDonald, Thilthorpe, DGB and Hollands. *Not including a JUH bid as that won't impact on that order.
Phillips should most likely be there. If he isn't, that leftover guy presumably will be the guy picked, and most likely of those to guess it would be Hollands who is something like an Andrew Embley. Big time talent forward of centre as per De Goey, but damaging up the field also with how he moves and that long, damaging kick on him.

Only thing that could mess any of that up is if Adelaide get compensation = pick 2 for Crouch, with some shenanigans they could get into in a deal with St Kilda, though you'd hope the AFL don't allow it as it's not within the spirit of the compensation process. If things played out like that, in that unlikely scenario, Tanner Bruhn is the best available.

I wouldn't personally be giving up Treloar for Bruhn. For Hollands? Justifiable, but if I knew Phillips wouldn't be available at 5, I wouldn't personally be doing the trade. Phillips for me is that prospect who could make the trade worthwhile, if Phillips + someone eg. Will Brodie can be added.
Click to expand...

IF Phillips and Hollans goes before Pick 5 we could pick a KPP Player Like

Zach Reid:

 
TradeDraft said:
IF Phillips goes before Pick 5 we could pick a KPP Player Like

Zach Reid:

Click to expand...


I wouldn't spend a first round pick on Reid, let alone a top-5 pick!

He's a good talent, could be a key forward, maybe a tall wing. But doesn't have the production on the board to pick with confidence, nor is there any indication on his rate of improvement this year with no NAB League as to whether he has progressed meaningfully or otherwise. He's a toss of the coin recruit and not one I'd be risking a first round pick on.

JUH, McDonald and Thilthorpe are those worthwhile early draft key forwards.

Otherwise, Collingwood are better off waiting for a Jackson Callow or Kaine Baldwin late.

My view with list needs is they should be filled during the trade period. Aliir Aliir or Tom McDonald would be great as key defenders. Majak Daw if a deeper stopper was needed. Ben Brown as a key forward would have been nice, but he's likely going to Melbourne, so a Josh Jenkins would be more than fine. Collingwood can just get a key defender and move Moore into the relieving ruck spot and otherwise have him play either wing or forward to provide support there for Mihocek.

I mentioned in my list needs piece today on ESPN that this is the very approach I would have. I'd go get Aliir Aliir and use Moore as relieving ruck. That's the play that can sort out the front half and simultaneously take pressure off of Grundy if that's believed to be necessary.
 
Knightmare said:
I wouldn't spend a first round pick on Reid, let alone a top-5 pick!

He's a good talent, could be a key forward, maybe a tall wing. But doesn't have the production on the board to pick with confidence, nor is there any indication on his rate of improvement this year with no NAB League as to whether he has progressed meaningfully or otherwise. He's a toss of the coin recruit and not one I'd be risking a first round pick on.

JUH, McDonald and Thilthorpe are those worthwhile early draft key forwards.

Otherwise, Collingwood are better off waiting for a Jackson Callow or Kaine Baldwin late.
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Well no one in Victoria will have much Exposed Form
 
Lets just make a massive play , if Crows get compensation pick 2, trade Treloar and Phillips to GC for picks 5 and 24, include paying partial Treloar contract, and perhaps 3rd round
go to Crows with pick 5 and first round 2021 for pick 2 and 2021 third rounder ( points to add for Daicos, around pick 40 )
get McDonald With pick 2
still leaves us pick 14 for a McRae or Cox (along with picks 24, 35,37 ) and fingers crossed McInnes slips past that pick and we can get him with pick 24

be aggressive
 

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TradeDraft said:
Well no one in Victoria will have much Exposed Form
Click to expand...

That's right, that's why so much relies on either guys who dominated in 2019 (Phillips did, and Hollands also). But then you're looking at - have they grown, is their athletic testing radically better than years past. You need to look for those indications that they've progressed and are trending the right way.
 
Knightmare said:
That's right, that's why so much relies on either guys who dominated in 2019 (Phillips did, and Hollands also). But then you're looking at - have they grown, is their athletic testing radically better than years past. You need to look for those indications that they've progressed and are trending the right way.
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So then would lot of the Talls from Victoria will be Late Picks or Skipped over and they try again next year IF they have a 2021 Season
 
TradeDraft said:
So then would lot of the Talls from Victoria will be Late Picks or Skipped over and they try again next year IF they have a 2021 Season
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I've noticed in years past, one year out from the draft most KPPs are overrated.

Look through the history of phantom drafts/power rankings during offseason/preseason and you'll see that. There is so often an assumption they'll improve more than they do, and it's more those who suddenly grow from nowhere who tend to breakout in a big way. I'm guilty of that in years past also and I've been doing this long enough to notice it on a lot of draft boards.

I'd like to see more of the talls and Victorians overlooked to come back next year and try again. Too many high risk players where their volume of work makes them too speculative. And certainly when we're looking early draft, unnecessary risk is, well, unnecessary.
 
Knightmare said:
I've noticed in years past, one year out from the draft most KPPs are overrated.

Look through the history of phantom drafts/power rankings during offseason/preseason and you'll see that. There is so often an assumption they'll improve more than they do, and it's more those who suddenly grow from nowhere who tend to breakout in a big way. I'm guilty of that in years past also and I've been doing this long enough to notice it on a lot of draft boards.

I'd like to see more of the talls and Victorians overlooked to come back next year and try again. Too many high risk players where their volume of work makes them too speculative. And certainly when we're looking early draft, unnecessary risk is, well, unnecessary.
Click to expand...

Then next year Draft be Full of Talls then?
 
Knightmare said:
That's right, that's why so much relies on either guys who dominated in 2019 (Phillips did, and Hollands also). But then you're looking at - have they grown, is their athletic testing radically better than years past. You need to look for those indications that they've progressed and are trending the right way.
Click to expand...
Speaking about ‘have they grown’, do we have any up to date measurements on McInness? I’ve seen him listed at 192 but then seen others saying he’s grown to 193 or even 194cm.
 
TradeDraft said:
Then next year Draft be Full of Talls then?
Click to expand...

On this years draft. It's actually a very strong year for KPPs. Jamarra and Logan could conceivably become the two best key forwards in the competition. And Thilthorpe is legit in his own right. If there is a fourth key forward that comes out of this draft anywhere near that quality, then we're talking about this as one of the best ever drafts for key forwards or KPPs more broadly.

If there was to be another tall outside of those names, DGB who if he slides (doubt it), the one that is semi-intriguing, though I don't class him as a KPP is Heath Chapman. Chapman is more a tall, rebounding half-back - think along the lines more-so of a Grant Birchall as that mid 190s quality kicking and intercepting flanker with good athleticism, without quite having the height or size to be a key defender.

I can't say top to bottom I have a great feel for the 2021 draft at this stage. I'll put together an early top-10 in the postseason, but there aren't, particularly in Victoria all that many who have played NAB League for me to be aware of them.

I don't follow the U16s, my focus is exclusively on the U18s, AFL and state leagues. As a one man recruiter, that's all I have time for. You'd need to ask a dedicated U16 watcher to know just how deep and full of talls next year's draft is.

Overall with drafting talls, the key idea is bad teams every year can take KPPs whenever they like. Look at Carlton taking too many KPPs. GWS taking too many KPPs. That happens when you're terrible for a long time. When in those positions, it's about waiting until KPPs are those clear best availables at your pick, then you take them, and don't take too many, ensuring you get enough coverage and quality in other positions to start building a winning team.
If you're not getting those uber early picks, then unless it's such an unbelievably obvious call eg. Noah Balta in 2017 (6 on my board but goes pick 25), they're the times where when you rate them that high, as those clear top certainly 10 in draft quality guys, that's when you want to draft KPPs.
Otherwise you'll just end up filling your list with depth KPPs who take up valuable list positions.

Given this understanding, I'm fully invested, unless Collingwood can somehow move up to pick 1 = Logan McDonald, to go the trade route and get an undervalued KPP or three who are clear best 22 quality and don't cost the world. This offseason there is a historic number of guys out there available to get. And get cheaper than we've seen for guys of their quality, at either end of the field for that matter.

Apex36 said:
Judging by early power rankings it seems like next year is more of a midfielders draft.
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I haven't seen updated measurements on McInnes to suggest he's grown taller than 192cm, but that's a great sign if he is! While he played back in 2019 for Oakleigh (that happens when Rowell/Anderson/Phillips/F.Macrae are all in that same midfield), his best play is as a ball winning mid and as a forward.

I'm excited by Reef. Most years I'm not bothered by NGA or F/S picks Collingwood can get, but Reef for upside is one of those guys where he could really be something with a few years of development in him.
 
ksardog said:
scharenberg was as good in his draft year as Wayne Carey according to Mark Williams. Once bitten twice shy
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No risk, no reward. A knee injury didn’t stop the Saints taking Max King.
 
manicpie said:
I hope Hollands falls a few spots to us. I don't think Norf will risk him, sydnay have an academy prospect. Hawthorn will take DGB at their pick, GC have an academy pick, so at 5 we should get Hollands or Phillips, I'm hoping we keep our first pick and take Callow, maybe a bit earlier than expected but could impact next year
Click to expand...

Hopefully there’s a bid for Campbell before the Swans get their pick. I doubt it, but it’d be nice to restrict them to 1x top 10 prospect this draft.
 

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I'm excited by Reef too, Knightmare
I never actually paid attention to any of our NGA prospects, not even last year with IQ. But this year, from everything I had heard, and also seen; I think he could end up being quite special. With more development, we'll see where he ends up playing position wise. But he is already quite tall for a mid and big bodied for a teenager. Isn't even 18 until December as well, so quite young in this draft class.
 
Jen2310 said:
I'm excited by Reef too, Knightmare
I never actually paid attention to any of our NGA prospects, not even last year with IQ. But this year, from everything I had heard, and also seen; I think he could end up being quite special. With more development, we'll see where he ends up playing position wise. But he is already quite tall for a mid and big bodied for a teenager. Isn't even 18 until December as well, so quite young in this draft class.
Click to expand...

Last year birthday makes Reef only means more scope to develop - and hopefully continue growing.

He moves very well for someone his height. I haven't seen his testing, but his agility is that you'd expect of a midfielder, let alone for someone his height. And from a size perspective, he'll have no problems. Already a good size.
 
Knightmare said:
Last year birthday makes Reef only means more scope to develop - and hopefully continue growing.

He moves very well for someone his height. I haven't seen his testing, but his agility is that you'd expect of a midfielder, let alone for someone his height. And from a size perspective, he'll have no problems. Already a good size.
Click to expand...
And with restrictions easing, you'd think they will find a way to fit in a combine for the vic metro boys? We may find out some testing from him, and if he has grown. I heard somewhere that his back stress fractures last year was a growth thing.
 
Knightmare said:
The top-4 in some order should McDonald, Thilthorpe, DGB and Hollands. *Not including a JUH bid as that won't impact on that order.
Phillips should most likely be there. If he isn't, that leftover guy presumably will be the guy picked, and most likely of those to guess it would be Hollands who is something like an Andrew Embley. Big time talent forward of centre as per De Goey, but damaging up the field also with how he moves and that long, damaging kick on him.

Only thing that could mess any of that up is if Adelaide get compensation = pick 2 for Crouch, with some shenanigans they could get into in a deal with St Kilda, though you'd hope the AFL don't allow it as it's not within the spirit of the compensation process. If things played out like that, in that unlikely scenario, Tanner Bruhn is the best available.

I wouldn't personally be giving up Treloar for Bruhn. For Hollands? Justifiable, but if I knew Phillips wouldn't be available at 5, I wouldn't personally be doing the trade. Phillips for me is that prospect who could make the trade worthwhile, if Phillips + someone eg. Will Brodie can be added.
Click to expand...


Phillips is elite with his hands,great mover in heavy traffic.superb tackling skills,one touch at ground level,above average awareness, great pace but........ he is really average disposer by foot,his kicking skills leave a lot to be desired,in fact he looks reluctant to kick the ball which can result in him hand balling to team mates who are under pressure. Nightmare any other prospects who are lightening quick and have all round A grade skills? I'm sure their growing on a tree somewhere waiting to be plucked.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
List Choker said:
Phillips is elite with his hands,great mover in heavy traffic.superb tackling skills,one touch at ground level,above average awareness, great pace but........ he is really average disposer by foot,his kicking skills leave a lot to be desired,in fact he looks reluctant to kick the ball which can result in him hand balling to team mates who are under pressure. Nightmare any other prospects who are lightening quick and have all round A grade skills? I'm sure their growing on a tree somewhere waiting to be plucked.:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Click to expand...

Phillips for those who watched his whole season improved as a kick over the course of the year and during the finals his skills looked more refined, with his execution by foot better.

You're right to suggest Phillips is handball happy, but I'm seeing it as he's in the context of that possession making a sound play and understanding his limitations. Occasionally by hand he put teammates under pressure, but not at a regularity where he's a liability.

There are alternative mids in this draft with speed. Caleb Poulter as a 190cm+ mid/flanker has speed and a long and damaging kick to him. He can win some of his own ball, but has a lot of developing to come still. Archie Perkins who can play mid/flank is another where he has good speed, can win his own ball, but again is a really nice kick. Those guys can probably be had around pick 14 if the pick is retained and a bid on Reef doesn't come before that point.

Jack Ginnivan late draft I'm a big fan of, a mostly forward but could play back or midfield. His ball winning capabilities I find underrated and he wins a good % contested. But he's one of the best kicks in this draft and moves well having the endurance and agility.

Sam Berry as a high % contested ball winner with acceleration is really nice and someone if I had a second round pick and wanted the closest thing to Phillips but further down the order is the guy I'd take.

Zavier Maher is another nice mid who could go around the second round. I'd like to see him win more of it and find more of it, but he's someone who is high impact per possession and has the speed of a Phillips, but then nice skills to go with it as someone who lowers his eyes and finds those i50 targets.

So as in any draft, there are midfielders available.

There are other good mids who sort of fit those models, but they're those top of mind I'm immediately thinking of.

I'd personally like to see a draft along the lines of pick 5 = Phillips. I'd be fine with moving pick 14 on in case a bid on Reef comes before that and make some moves using the pick as a flexible piece in order to acquire other players of interest. Then just take another two later on in something like a Ginnivan and Jackson Callow for a strong KPP with a very advanced game who can really take a grab.
 

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ksardog said:
Lets just make a massive play , if Crows get compensation pick 2, trade Treloar and Phillips to GC for picks 5 and 24, include paying partial Treloar contract, and perhaps 3rd round
go to Crows with pick 5 and first round 2021 for pick 2 and 2021 third rounder ( points to add for Daicos, around pick 40 )
get McDonald With pick 2
still leaves us pick 14 for a McRae or Cox (along with picks 24, 35,37 ) and fingers crossed McInnes slips past that pick and we can get him with pick 24

be aggressive
Click to expand...
I’m sure treloar who’s contracted will agree to be traded to adel
 
ksardog said:
well make sure not to piss and moan if the player taken is always injured like people were about Scharenberg
Click to expand...

Yeah I’m not prone to piss and moan. Sad we don’t get to see the best of players like Shaz but nothing we can do about it, the footy gods are nasty bastards.
 
manicpie said:
I hope Hollands falls a few spots to us. I don't think Norf will risk him, sydnay have an academy prospect. Hawthorn will take DGB at their pick, GC have an academy pick, so at 5 we should get Hollands or Phillips, I'm hoping we keep our first pick and take Callow, maybe a bit earlier than expected but could impact next year
Click to expand...

That's my prediction if we get to 5. Phillips goes earlier and we take Hollands who slips to us. We will have another first rounder so we feel we are better equipped to take a risk. Sorry unplugged!
 

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List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Thread

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