List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Thread

[PMBangers]

No it's not. It's why we're secretly hatching a plan to kidnap PMBangers don't tell him though.

It's too late, Adrian Caruso and I have already linked up

 

[Soups]

They are Pretty Similar Types

Correct mate. As most are aware I rate Cook quite highly.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

It's too late, Adrian Caruso and I have already linked up

Hmm I'll have to bring in some more reinforcements for a double kidnapping.

 

[TradeDraft]

Yeah I was genuinely 50/50 on the pick. I was weighing up where I would play McInnes and which of them would be better. I think if Ford had played a full year this year, he'd be talked up in that top 15, and it's easy to go off recency bias. Cook was on my shortlist originally, but just that bit of long-term exposure and X-factor won me over for Ford. Think he can be incredibly damaging.

Go Home Factor with Cook?

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Go Home Factor with Cook?

No that didn’t come into my thinking. I just tried to think where Ford might have been with a year of development. He adds that extra X-factor and think he could be an inside mid more so than Cook in the future, whereas Cook would be outside. But Ford has the versatility to ply multiple positions there.

 

[partypie]

Well need to Move Up IF we want Cox/Reid

Thats definitely more within our reach but I'd hope we don't feel too pressured to overpay in order to get one of them.

 

[partypie]

Hey guys, update on the BigFooty Draft. An unnamed coach who may or may not be PMBangers decided to bid on Reef McInnes the pick before me, which saw me forced to match.

As I said througout this thread there were players ahead of Reef - Reid, Cox, Bruhn and Chapman - and once they were all off the board (ironically the pick before GWS), there was no genuine reason not to match.

With the second pick I selected Eddie Ford, an exciting forward/mid from Western Jets.

So I'll just have a snooze now until the end of the draft and pick up the best tall left for me, and see what else remains in terms of best available.

Having said that GWS screwing by bidding with the pick immediately before our first pick would be an absolute disaster for us if it happens in the actual ND.

We really, REALLY need those three top 20-calibre talents out of this draft, especially given how we are looking likely to be hamstrung by the Daicos bid match in next year's draft.

 

[Apex36]

i'm confused by this. shouldnt the surplus with the discount we get for Reef be added to our next selection? this would mean pie 4 life should have had pick 17?

This was posted before a bid was made for Reef.

 

[Bay Pie]

Having said that GWS screwing by bidding with the pick immediately before our first pick would be an absolute disaster for us if it happens in the actual ND.

We really, REALLY need those three top 20-calibre talents out of this draft, especially given how we are looking likely to be hamstrung by the Daicos bid match in next year's draft.

Which is why we may trade our 2021 1st rounder and pick 19 (was pick 16) for GWS pick 16 (was pick 13), 18 (pick 15) & 47 (moved in from pick 52 due to bids on JUH, Campbell and Jones) and possibly GWS future 3rd rounder.

Seems big overs by us but the thinking may be 3 x kids at picks 16, 17 & 18 along with Reef. Sadly, likely to miss those early talls but we might have a dip at one or 2 of these talls that are tipped to go later but showed a bit in pre-season training this year and showed something in their under-age year last year as a 17 year old. While our picks are late, when we 'live' pick in the draft, they won't be anyway near that. It's fairly common for guys to zoom up the draft order in their top age year. Just need to select well as I feel there will be a few taken late, who'll end up top 20 players of the draft.

As a side note, retaining our 2021 1st rounder could influence an oppo team to match any free agent bid/s next year. If we don't have a 1st rounder, they'll know we just don't have much to give and just take FA compo. See what happened to Geelong.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Another look at what our Draft Guide will feature:

 

[unplugged]

Another look at what our Draft Guide will feature:

View attachment 1018385

A Rubik's cube? You beauty!

 

[Pie 4 Life]

A Rubik's cube? You beauty!

Yeah just don't hold it at a certain angle or the coffee will spill on you.

 

[unplugged]

Probably to be expected given that it's mainly based off BigFooty rankings but the spreadsheet is holding up quite well in comparison to the BF phantom draft.

If I can say so myself...



Maher, Berry and Coleman the main "bolters" so far but it will get lots more random from here on I'm sure, especially on draft night. 52 onwards are completely unranked and in no particular order.

 

[Gone Critical]

Yeah for me it depends on what you’re trying to assess if it’s the talent ID then that call is wrong, but if it’s a simple who’ll have the better career at Collingwood player X or Blair? Then it’s correct.

Only thing is what’s the point of that particular whipping boy based discussion? At least if it’s a discussion on talent ID we can discuss why we got it wrong and how we we’d like the club to improve.

For mine even commenting on Bianco, Rantall and Ruscoe given they’re 12 months in is rough and Kelly gets a tick after one so so game (by so so I mean he didn’t show anything in the way of KPF traits). I mean Murphy despite all his injuries has shown more than Kelly thus far given his 2018 games were solid and he was the 2020 best reserve player.

Edit: as an FYI prime Blair in the second half of his career number wise is pretty much what Brown’s produced in 19 & 20 yet he’s a probably not...

Blair (14-18): 15 possessions .7 goals .6 goal assists and 4.7 tackles
Brown (2020 adjusted by 20%): 14.9 possessions, .5 goals, .5 goal assists and 3.4 tackles.

I was trying to be a bit more philosophical rather than literal. I think I did it poorly.

Basic point is if we look over our last 5 drafts we have burnt all our 1st round picks via Treloar/Stevo/Beams. Not unsurprisingly the kid who looks the best is Q who was tied to is and is the highest rated kid left of the last 5 drafts. Expecting that we are somehow going to reap riches from this draft with a couple of teen picks and 2 nothing picks is unlikely to bear much fruit.

 

[Gone Critical]

Why don't you think Bianco and Rantall won't make it?

He’s being overly harsh Dave. It’s almost impossible to make a call on any of the 2019 draftees at this stage.

It wasn’t meant to be specific to Bianco and Rantall as we don’t know individually what they will bring. More to say on average pick 40,45 and 55 don’t usually bring that much so that to think they are going to be the answers to the talent we have traded out probably doesn’t work.

I could be wrong and maybe, and I hope so, one of them becomes our next [PLAYERCARD]Dane Swan[/PLAYERCARD]. Unfortunately the stats say they probably
become our next Kirby, Phillips and Lockyer and that would be a excellent outcome

 

[TradeDraft]

It wasn’t meant to be specific to Bianco and Rantall as we don’t know individually what they will bring. More to say on average pick 40,45 and 55 don’t usually bring that much so that to think they are going to be the answers to the talent we have traded out probably doesn’t work.

I could be wrong and maybe, and I hope so, one of them becomes our next [PLAYERCARD]Dane Swan[/PLAYERCARD]. Unfortunately the stats say they probably
become our next Kirby, Phillips and Lockyer and that would be a excellent outcome

Kirby Health was the Reason he did not make it.

Like what I saw of Rantall before Covid Started and Bianco had good Reports

 

[cityslick1]

The HS Mock Draft

1. JUH (WB) [Adelaide places a bid and the WB Matches]
2. Riley Thilthorpe (ADE)
3. Logan McDonald (NM) - [The Bombers called through for a trade for their first two picks but it was rejected.]
4. DGB (SYD)
5. Elijah Hollands (HAW)
6. Will Phillips (GC)
7. Zac Reid (ESS)
8. Braeden Campbell (SYD) [Essendon places a bid and Sydney matches]
9. Tanner Bruhn (ESS)
10. Archie Perkins(ESS)
11. Lachie Jones (PA) [Adelaide places a bid and Port matches]
12. Nathan O'Driscoll (ADE)
13. Oliver Henry (GWS)
14. Heath Chapman (NM)
15. Nikolas Cox (FRE)
16. Brayden Cook (GWS)
17. Finlay Macrae (COLL)
18. Jack Carroll (GWS)
19. Tom Powell (COLL)
20. Brandon Walker (FRE) [Richmond places a bid and Fremantle matches]
21. Bailey Laurie (RIC)
22. Reef McInnes (COLL) [Melbourne places a bid and Collingwood matches]
23. Jake Bowey (MELB)
24. Connor Downie (HAW) [Melbourne paces a bid and Hawthorn matches]
25. Seamus Mitchell (MELB)
26. Kaine Baldwin (GWS)
27. Zavier Maher (STK)
---------------------------
28. Caleb Poulter (ADE)
29. Eddie Ford (ADE)
30. Zac Dumesny (HAW)

Cox & Cook taken in the two picks before us is my nightmare......

Reef slipping good. In Hine we (have to) trust....

 

[Pie 4 Life]

Probably to be expected given that it's mainly based off BigFooty rankings but the spreadsheet is holding up quite well in comparison to the BF phantom draft.

If I can say so myself...

View attachment 1018405View attachment 1018406

Maher, Berry and Coleman the main "bolters" so far but it will get lots more random from here on I'm sure, especially on draft night. 52 onwards are completely unranked and in no particular order.

Outside of Sam Collins in that last four, Wil Parker has pulled out and the other two Melb NGA are incredibly unlikely (Smith the only marginal chance and rookie at best though numbers haven't helped him).

Did these include rankings not updated from last year? Because why would Parker be in them? haha

 

[manicpie]

Probably to be expected given that it's mainly based off BigFooty rankings but the spreadsheet is holding up quite well in comparison to the BF phantom draft.

If I can say so myself...

View attachment 1018405View attachment 1018406

Maher, Berry and Coleman the main "bolters" so far but it will get lots more random from here on I'm sure, especially on draft night. 52 onwards are completely unranked and in no particular order.

I would like a couple of picks in the 30 to 40 range and pick up Isiah Winder and Pheonix Spicer, would give us 2 damaging small forwards for the future. This draft has some real smokies at later picks, chuck in Callow and we have 3 really good players without using our first 2 picks. It would completely transform our forward line for the future

 

[unplugged]

Outside of Sam Collins in that last four, Wil Parker has pulled out and the other two Melb NGA are incredibly unlikely (Smith the only marginal chance and rookie at best though numbers haven't helped him).

Did these include rankings not updated from last year? Because why would Parker be in them? haha

I've got no idea how his name came into them. He was obviously ranked in someone's list or something and then became unranked. I actually had 52 and onwards (unranked) hidden in excel but then someone selected Coleman so I had to unhide them...

 

[Anzacday]

Isiah Winder

Just found out he used to play Basketball - sold.

 

[Scodog10]

I was trying to be a bit more philosophical rather than literal. I think I did it poorly.

Basic point is if we look over our last 5 drafts we have burnt all our 1st round picks via Treloar/Stevo/Beams. Not unsurprisingly the kid who looks the best is Q who was tied to is and is the highest rated kid left of the last 5 drafts. Expecting that we are somehow going to reap riches from this draft with a couple of teen picks and 2 nothing picks is unlikely to bear much fruit.

That's something I can get behind, but I’m not all that phased myself because we had a showstopper draft the year before when we selected 3 AA level talents. The numbers suggest we’re a roughly 40% chance of finding a Blair level talent at each pick we currently hold in this draft plus our draft hand won’t look the same in two weeks time.

In 2-3 years time it might present problems if we can’t poach some best 10-15 types from other clubs say a mix of Lipinski, Himmleberg, Fiorini and Perryman, but I’m sure clubs like Geelong, WC and Richmond have similar holes in their list.

 

[jackcass]

This must be out biggest list turnover in a little while?

I think 2016 it was 13 players.

 

[jackcass]

Having said that GWS screwing by bidding with the pick immediately before our first pick would be an absolute disaster for us if it happens in the actual ND.

We really, REALLY need those three top 20-calibre talents out of this draft, especially given how we are looking likely to be hamstrung by the Daicos bid match in next year's draft.

They added Green last year so I'm not thinking an inside mid is a high priority when they still have at least Coniglio, Kelly, Toranto, Ward, Perryman, Hopper and DeBoer (off the top of my head) to try and rotate through the midfield. I think a longer term partner for Taylor will be their biggest priority, as will their defense more generally. Shaw and Williams are 2 key players they need to replace.

 

[sr36]

Probably to be expected given that it's mainly based off BigFooty rankings but the spreadsheet is holding up quite well in comparison to the BF phantom draft.

If I can say so myself...

View attachment 1018405View attachment 1018406

Maher, Berry and Coleman the main "bolters" so far but it will get lots more random from here on I'm sure, especially on draft night. 52 onwards are completely unranked and in no particular order.

Looks like you've developed a great tool for measuring and predicting something of incredible importance - the Official Bigfooty Phantom Draft. Patent your tool and the millions will flow in.