Opinion 2020 Draft Watch #2 (picks 1, 8, 20, 29, 44, 50, 60, 74) - finalised 10/10/20

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KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.
 
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DJ75

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Ok so I think we will get Pick 2 for B Crouch. It makes sense for the AFL to give us a help after what was looking like a horrendous season. They know how big a market we are and won't want us bottom for long.

So I'd guess Pick 2 for Crouch and 32 for Atkins.

That gives first round looking like;
1. Crows
2. Crows
3. North
4. Sydney
5. GC
6. Ess
7. Carlton
8. Crows
9. North
10. Fremantle
11. Geelong
12. Collingwood
13. Crows


Given we have pick 1 & 2, I suspect Bulldogs might be willing to trade for a no bid deal. Moving from pick 1 to pick 3 as a possible bid is substantial. So maybe something simple like pick 20 and 31 for 13.
Sydney will definitely want to trade pick 4 for pick 1 or 2. I'd say we use Pick 1, so we trade pick 2 for 4, plus we swap 1st and 2nd round picks in 2021 (with a no bulldogs bid agreement).

Sydney get themselves a top line forward to go with their midfielder in 2020. We get their 2021 1st round pick. It's a fair deal.


That makes it;
1. Crows - Thilthorpe/McDonald
2. Sydney - McDonald/Thilthorpe
3. North - Hollands/Phillips
4. Crows - I would love to bid on Jones here just to wipe Port out, but can't see us doing it. So, Phillips/Hollands.
5. GC - ? Bid on Campbell. Matched. Bid on Jones. Matched. Mid - possibly Bruhn
6. Ess - ? Key defender - possibly DGB
7. Carlton - ? Mid. Bid on Reef McInnes. Could be traded pick. Archie Perkins.
8. Crows - Mid. That leaves the options looking like O'Driscoll
9. North - Jackson Callow
10. Fremantle - Heath Chapman
11. Geelong - Oliver Henry
12. Collingwood - Pick gone due to bid
13. Crows - Nik Cox or Jeffrey Joel.

If it was me picking;

1. McDonald (just an elite forward)
4. Hollands or Phillips. I'm hoping Hollands, but very happy if it is Phillips. We need hard nut leaders.
8. O'Driscoll. Another very tough mid.
13. Nik Cox. 199 cm. Mobile. Develop him for whatever role you want, or an elite speedy player like Joel.


I'd be happy to trade a pick after that for Hately, but probably not a massive need given the draft.
Then I think we definitely add Borlase, Newchurch & Edwards, for 32, 44, 48, 60, 74 and whatever else we get for a few trade dumps (Hartigan, Kelly etc...)

Net result;
Elite forward who can play alongside Berg.
Elite Mid
Tough balanced Mid
199cm mobile utility
+
Borlase - Developing defender. Hartigan replacement
Newchurch - Half forward x-factor
Edwards - Accumulating Mid.
+
Syd 2021 1st round pick.

Good work all around. :)
 

WaynesWorld19

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Dam I can’t believe everybody instantly thinks BCrouch is now no chance because of one incident. Clubs play for one reason only, to win a flag. He has talent and skill and don’t think a club will offer less because of one indiscretion.

We need to offer just below band 1 and then if a club wants him we will get band 1. We need pick 2 desperately and should have it happen. Complain to the AFL about it and push the issue. If GWS get it for Williams, so should we.

Adelaide needs to kick up a stink now before the draft starts


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Multiple clubs chasing Brad will force the deal up .....the buying club will not want the Crows to match thus forcing a trade ....so they will over-bid to avoid burning a trade pick

The combination of all those factors will see a pretty good deal put on the table, despite what the media say
 

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Crow till I die

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Multiple clubs chasing Brad will force the deal up .....the buying club will not want the Crows to match thus forcing a trade ....so they will over-bid to avoid burning a trade pick

The combination of all those factors will see a pretty good deal put on the table, despite what the media say
WOW - that sounds like common sense. Whatever you do, don't post it on the Brad Crouch thread on the main board as common sense is in short supply there
 

Mutineer

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If we are going to potentially spend pick 1 on a tall in this draft, Lukosius is better than McDonald and Thilthorpe talent wise imo
Problem I see there is Lukosius is not looking like he's going to be that tall Forward at AFL level that most of us had anticipated he would be, currently he's looking more and more at home in defence as the exceptionally skilled distributor/springboard to attack type player.
 
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Crow till I die

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Problem I see there is Lukosius is not looking like he's going to be that tall Forward at AFL level that most of us had anticipated he would be, currently he looking more and more at home in defence as the exceptionally skilled distributor/springboard to attack type player.
Yeah he does and does it well. I would be hoping to make him a tall between the 50m arcs player that ranges up and down the flanks as he has a super workrate and imagine that delivery to the forwards
 

Mego Red

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Dam I can’t believe everybody instantly thinks BCrouch is now no chance because of one incident. Clubs play for one reason only, to win a flag. He has talent and skill and don’t think a club will offer less because of one indiscretion.

We need to offer just below band 1 and then if a club wants him we will get band 1. We need pick 2 desperately and should have it happen. Complain to the AFL about it and push the issue. If GWS get it for Williams, so should we.

Adelaide needs to kick up a stink now before the draft starts


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What are you thinking we say to the AFL? What are we kicking a stink up about?

"We need it" doesn't mean anything.
 

Mego Red

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I've not met a single person other than people on our board who think Sydney will trade up in this draft, and lose a pick next year

There's zero chance they're trading out a probable top five pick in next year's draft. It's too valuable.

They'll dare us to bid. And if we do, it means they either trade down for extra points, or they let Campbell go and they take one of the consensus top three players.
 

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CutAboveTheRest

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I've not met a single person other than people on our board who think Sydney will trade up in this draft, and lose a pick next year

There's zero chance they're trading out a probable top five pick in next year's draft. It's too valuable.

They'll dare us to bid. And if we do, it means they either trade down for extra points, or they let Campbell go and they take one of the consensus top three players.

That would be the best outcome for us. He's gonna be a good one!
 

Jumboprince

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Problem I see there is Lukosius is not looking like he's going to be that tall Forward at AFL level that most of us had anticipated he would be, currently he's looking more and more at home in defence as the exceptionally skilled distributor/springboard to attack type player.
Which would fit Nicksys game plan
 

Dangerousfield

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A crazy thought but contrary to popular opinion that better to go local in the draft if a choice presents, but couldn't it be better to go the interstate option and then recruit the SA boy back after a couple of years?
Correct! That would be Sydney's thinking if we bid on Campbell at pick 1, don't match, take KPF McDonald, get Campbell for a lot less as a homesick, hates Adelaide go homer!

Hell, we've had a gutful of good players bailing out even when we were a good team, imagine how keen they'll be to leave when we are still crap in a couple of years.

Ideas about bidding on players before their rating is nuts, way too dangerous. JUH at pick 1 no probs because that's where he's rated and Dogs are prepared for that. Campbell at pick 1 when he's rated 5-10 by most knowledgable draft watchers is insane.

Clubs just don't do malicious bids, that's fact, particularly at the pointy end so it's stupid to keep talking about it.
 

Crow till I die

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Keep pressuring them, saying we are terrible and need help. We’ve been hard done by as tippetgate compared to drug cheats Essendon. Feel we deserve some luck for a change


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And that priority pick handed to gc last year hurt us at the draft and helped make us finish bottom this year. Pick 3 and we would have had noah anderson running around our midfield this year as melbourne were always taking jackson ;)
 

Dewy006

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That seems a typical crow supporters logic. Always thinking about next year. Have a look what PA has done in the present.
With where we are in the cycle of our rebuild we HAVE to be thinking about next year. We aren’t in the same position that Port were. We need to build a foundation first. Hit the draft hard this year and next, then look at FAs and trading in top line players after that.
 

skittlebrew

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That seems a typical crow supporters logic. Always thinking about next year. Have a look what PA has done in the present.
Huh? PA nailed the **** out of a strong draft year, that's what happened and it's helping them in their current season. And there looks to be a decent draft next year. So yes let's keep an eye on next year.
 

Mutineer

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Correct! That would be Sydney's thinking if we bid on Campbell at pick 1, don't match, take KPF McDonald, get Campbell for a lot less as a homesick, hates Adelaide go homer!

Hell, we've had a gutful of good players bailing out even when we were a good team, imagine how keen they'll be to leave when we are still crap in a couple of years.

Ideas about bidding on players before their rating is nuts, way too dangerous. JUH at pick 1 no probs because that's where he's rated and Dogs are prepared for that. Campbell at pick 1 when he's rated 5-10 by most knowledgable draft watchers is insane.

Clubs just don't do malicious bids, that's fact, particularly at the pointy end so it's stupid to keep talking about it.
Yeah you have to be 1 -5 by the "knowledgeable draft watchers" to be the best player out of each draft.
 

kulak

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I’d say we’ve got next to no chance to get pick 2 . There’s hardly a bidding war going on for Brad Crouch . 2 favs Geelong and Richmond will want him to play for lure of success rather than big Money .... they be cheating if offered him big money

get used to pick 20 ish or mid first round at absolute best ( unlikely )

he might just stay
Not sure Nicks wants him. 17th in the B&F votes per game, for pretty typical possession stats.

We can try to force a trade for better than pick 20 but won’t have a strong negotiating position.
 

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