Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[1990crow]

If we trade pick 1 for two late first round picks I'm done.

 

[Golumless]

More chance of getting a star player with pick 1. Premiership sides have top picks, very rarely do they not.
Lets not be cute, we need top draft picks

Probability would dictate its the other way around. You would have a greater chance (though, probably not by much) to get one star player from 2 mid round 1sts then you would pick 1. After all, one of the unfortunate aspects of drafting elite players is you do need as many shots as possible to cover all of the "s**t happens" part of drafting. Its an industry where one injury/incident can completely change the trajectory of a career after all.

Of course the issue is its rare teams have multiple firsts (though becoming less so) and the advantage of pick one is you need less list space freed up, whereas you're probably sacrificing something else to get two firsts, so there is a balancing act to it.

 

[DJ75]

I mean, it's very situational. In ours at the moment, because we hold onto the GWS pick and might supplement our 1st round picks with Brad Crouch, you probably don't consider any pick swaps for pick 1 (unless they're absolutely ridiculous) as the risk has already been mitigated to a substantial degree.

Without both of those picks, if you offered me two firsts + steak knives for pick 1, I'd take it. For both coverage, and would increase the odds of producing an elite player.

Agree. I would be especially agreeable if it included a likely high pick in the 2021 draft. Spreading the chances over multiple drafts is also more beneficial.

 

[1990crow]

Probability would dictate its the other way around. You would have a greater chance (though, probably not by much) to get one star player from 2 mid round 1sts then you would pick 1. After all, one of the unfortunate aspects of drafting elite players is you do need as many shots as possible to cover all of the "sh*t happens" part of drafting.

Of course the issue is its rare teams have multiple firsts (though becoming less so) and the advantage of pick one is you need less list space freed up, whereas you're probably sacrificing something else to get two firsts.

I would normally agree but we have failed to draft those players you suggest are that level since Doedee, 5 years ago.

 

[DJ75]

If we trade pick 1 for two late first round picks I'm done.

I don't think we are talking about two late first round picks. That would be incredibly stupid. We won't do that.

 

[Scorpus]

If we don't get picks 1 and 2, there is absolutely no way at all we should trade pick 1.

If we do get both, I'd only consider trading pick 2

 

[Pugsley]

Have list sizes been worked out yet?

If they haven’t WTF are VFL House doing?

Working remotely.

 

[Murray2503]

Have list sizes been worked out yet?

If they haven’t WTF are VFL House doing?

Fighting with the Players Association. All comes down to money.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

If we don't get picks 1 and 2, there is absolutely no way at all we should trade pick 1.

If we do get both, I'd only consider trading pick 2

You don't trade pick 1 until you've received the compo pick for Brad .....it could be the pick after our first round, so if we traded #1 out to say #5, then Brads compo pick would be #6 instead of #2 .....that would be dumb

 

[WaynesWorld19]

MATTY NICKS on SEN SA Breakfast (25/9/20)

Adelaide Coach Matty Nicks joined Kane and Hayesy following his first season in the chair.

player.whooshkaa.com

 

[crow2crow]

You don't trade pick 1 until you've received the compo pick for Brad .....it could be the pick after our first round, so if we traded #1 out to say #5, then Brads compo pick would be #6 instead of #2 .....that would be dumb

we are not trading pick 1, possibly pick 2 if they got it

 

[119others]

The entire football industry thought we got overs.

All except the best Footy Manager in the league ;-)

 

[Crow_68]

If we don't get picks 1 and 2, there is absolutely no way at all we should trade pick 1.

If we do get both, I'd only consider trading pick 2

Correct and the only trade I would entertain for pick 2 is Sydney's pick 4 and 2021 first (benchmark has been set).

On SM-A908B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[GROTTO]

If we trade pick 1 for two late first round picks I'm done.

We wont.

 

[Shaz2012]

This is worse than a playstation idea, but is it so crazy that it just might work?

Assuming we lose Brad, and suppose Tex is paid out. We could offer Ben Brown a pretty decent contract. North don't have much hope of extracting any value out of him, let alone to the team with pick 1 in the PSD if he nominates them. Not a free agent, so AFAIK that wouldn't affect any compo.

He is 27 and likely not going to play finals with us, but he would straighten us up and we like playing with the three slow talls. Personally, I don't like the three slow tall set up anyway, but just in terms of getting a 60 goal a year forward for essentially nothing, its a thought.

I see Fog developing in Tex's role rather than a deep forward. But probably Berg and Brown are too similar and I wouldn't want to bring in an older player that would block his development.

 

[Murray2503]

MATTY NICKS on SEN SA Breakfast (25/9/20) - SEN SA Breakfast

Adelaide Coach Matty Nicks joined Kane and Hayesy following his first season in the chair....

pca.st

Interesting chat. Mentions the KPF's in the top 5 and specifically the top 2. Stated "they really rate the people pushed towards pick 1 and 2."

 

[GROTTO]

Happy to trade it as long as we get another top 5 pick. Even better would be to trade pick 2, forego McDonald and get Thilthorpe plus another top 10 next year.

Agree.

Which is why getting Pick 2 for Brouch is such a game changer for the AFC and also shapes the 2020 draft for everyone.

It enables us to get a an extra pick in the Top 10 of 2020 and potentially Top 10 in 2021 if we trade Pick 2 for top 10 pick in 2020 and likely top 10 pick in 2021.

In total our top 10 picks would be 3 in 2020 and 2 in 2022. Thats how you build a strong stable foundation to your rebuild.

 

[morris086]

You don't trade pick 1 until you've received the compo pick for Brad .....it could be the pick after our first round, so if we traded #1 out to say #5, then Brads compo pick would be #6 instead of #2 .....that would be dumb

The compo would still be pick 2 in that scenario.

 

[Kezza86]

Interested to hear your thoughts on what’s not to like about McDonald?

1) he’s dominated the best comp outside of the AFL. He’s not doing this against kids, he’s done this in an Avg side in a strong Comp.
2) he has no body on him. He’s raw. He’s done it as an 18yr old on the back of footy smarts and ability. Upside looks amazing.
3) He fits the current AFL game. Can run up and down the ground. Athletic, strong hands. The big fwds that dominate 18s because of their strength have been the ones to struggle as their weapon is taken away at the elite level. This doesn’t seem to be the case with Logan.

I like Thilthorpe But I think he’s just below Logan. And The Berg looks like he can actually play now so I don’t see the need for 2x 200cm players in your fwd half.

just an outsiders perspective

Same could be said about Jimmy Toumpas when he was drafted. I take form from state comps as a grain of salt.

I don’t rate Berg with his 5 minutes of form. He will struggle when opposition teams put work into him.

 

[Kezza86]

Agree.

Which is why getting Pick 2 for Brouch is such a game changer for the AFC and also shapes the 2020 draft for everyone.

It enables us to get a an extra pick in the Top 10 of 2020 and potentially Top 10 in 2021 if we trade Pick 2 for top 10 pick in 2020 and likely top 10 pick in 2021.

In total our top 10 picks would be 3 in 2020 and 2 in 2022. Thats how you build a strong stable foundation to your rebuild.

hence Victorian journalists don’t want us with pick 2 as well.

 

[GROTTO]

More chance of getting a star player with pick 1. Premiership sides have top picks, very rarely do they not.
Lets not be cute, we need top draft picks. Tried to be cute in 2018 and it back fired

I was going to disagree with you here, then I started looking.

Carlton who are a basket case and joke of the VFL have turned their number 1 picks into above average players, nothing special.

However, if you look at the last few years, there has been some decent players at Pick 1.

The only issue I have with keeping Pick 1, is that in a post pandemic world, I get the feeling that a genuine Number 1 of the draft is not crystal clear due to the lack of footy and coverage.

Trading out Pick 1 is an option to explore, but it must give us multiple benefits with a high probability of success. ie. Two single digit Top 10 picks.

 

[GROTTO]

Same could be said about Jimmy Toumpas when he was drafted. I take form from state comps as a grain of salt.

I don’t rate Berg with his 5 minutes of form. He will struggle when opposition teams put work into him.

I dont rate Berg either. I have my concerns with him as well.

 

[119others]

The idea of doing a trade like this with The Bulldogs is based on the unique fact this year that the player is generally a consensus pick 1 and we will have picks 1 and 2. This gives us the ability to promise not to bid with these first 2 picks, which would save them at least 613 points on what they would need to match. Therefore in your example of pick 19 for 31 and 44 they would be 60% better off than if we didn’t do the trade and bid at 1.
If you don’t believe a club will look at something like that you only have to look to last year and see that GWS gave up a future 1st (pick 8 as it turns out) To move up 2 spots, simply because they believed we would bid on Green.

mate good post the only issue is that it was the Swans who GWS feared would bid on Green, not us. Clearly if we really wanted him we wouldnt have done the deal.

 

[Murray2503]

I dont rate Berg either. I have my concerns with him as well.

I rate Berg's marking ability. Where he needs to get better is:
1. Upper body strength. Hit the gym over summer.
2. His kicking for goal on the run needs to improve.
3. His goal kicking accuracy needs to improve. His misses fade to the right.

His work with the ball below his knees is good and he can go up the ground and get involved quite well. What Himmelberg needs is another target such as McDonald to take the total focus off him. The real concern is Fogarty at this stage.

 

[119others]

1 adelaide: hollands
2 adelaide: mcdonald
3 nth melbourne: thilthorpe
4 sydney: campbell
5 hawthorn: granger barass
6 gold coast: no idea
7 essendon: hopefully not philips
8 adelaide: philips

why in the hell would Swans bid on their own NGA player when they can get a 20% discount by matching another bid!