Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[Mego Red]

Eddie Ford another I reckon that fits into that category, another that played quite well in that U17's Futures games, played mostly forward but has played some mid and he's another X factor type with his overhead marking a feature, even your boy Henry maybe though I see him best suited as a 3rd tall type forward or back personally. Even SA boy Brayden Cook maybe though I see him more half/forward/wing at this time with some questions still on his contested footy when we're talking midfield.

Didn't love Eddie Ford in the videos Giantroo has put up. Seems like a power athlete, but only 6 foot tall. Not 100% sure what role he does in the seniors.

 

[spenze]

In the last 40 years, how many pick ones have won a premiership?

Can we combine our free agency picks for Atkins and Brouch to get pick 2?

I mean, if we are playing lets ask a question that's been answered like 10+ times in this thread

 

[StonesThrow]

My ideal draft at this point in time would be :
1 Elijah Hollands
2 Riley Thilthorpe (could possibly go a couple of spots lower if we don't take him)
8 Archie Perkins
20/28 Zavier Maher/Caleb Poulter

Late/rookie Henry Smith

Nailed it. Just need that pick 2.

 

[StonesThrow]

Didn't love Eddie Ford in the videos Giantroo has put up. Seems like a power athlete, but only 6 foot tall. Not 100% sure what role he does in the seniors.

I reckon Ford will be one of those annoying players (for opposition supporters) that just knows how to find the goals. I'd be willing to take a chance on him.

 

[119others]

If their assumption is a bid is coming for Campbell and they can't get before it (or it costs too much, by sacrificing a top 5 pick in the 2021 Superdraft), then they would move down, in a trade that gives them the most 2020 point benefit.

That trade gives them Campbell and another pick at the end of the first round, and they also have the premium pick next year.

ok it comes down to interpretation and assumptions and we have probably both explained our perspectives.

I understand what you are saying but think there is one fundamental flaw. Teams want elite talent - top 5. Teams want to trade UP in the draft, not DOWN as you are proposing.

My scenario, is Swans by swapping 4 for 2 with the crows (along with then giving us R1 for our 2nd rounder 2021) it GUARANTEES them 2 elite players (top 5). Campbell and pick 2.

Most years teams are optimistic by nature and their is no guarantee Swans finish bottom 5 (even though I think 12-16 is most likely). No odds on 2021 flag yet from what I can see. If Swans finish higher than expected next year and say finish 8-12 (think about this years finishes and how things can change so much - Crows bottom, Power top) then they dont get an elite top 5 talent, more a 7-10 type player.

 

[Mutineer]

Didn't love Eddie Ford in the videos Giantroo has put up. Seems like a power athlete, but only 6 foot tall. Not 100% sure what role he does in the seniors.

Mid/Forward

Go watch the U17's future stars where it's the best playing the best. 188cm is near on 6ft 2" and that's the minimum until he's measured at the Combine.

 

[Mutineer]

I reckon Ford will be one of those annoying players (for opposition supporters) that just knows how to find the goals. I'd be willing to take a chance on him.

Jordan De Goey like if everything went well in his development?

 

[119others]

Is $700k for 4 enough to get band 1? I wouldn't have thought so. Would be borderline at best and risky.

can anyone confirm if the AFL will definitively advise us what compo pick a proposed salary and tenure of contact will achieve to enable a fully informed decision to be made?

 

[Mego Red]

If we got pick 13 for 20 and later picks from WB, and we knew North Melbourne wanted McDonald, I'd happily do

1 and 13
for 3, 10 and 26.

We still take Hollands and Thilthorpe, we have picks at 8 and 10 plus the Atkins compo and 26.

That's a sweet mix.

 

[Mego Red]

Can we combine our free agency picks for Atkins and Brouch to get pick 2?

I mean, if we are playing lets ask a question that's been answered like 10+ times in this thread

LOL - fair enough. I WAS being rhetorical, because the answer is 1 ...

 

[Mego Red]

can anyone confirm if the AFL will definitively advise us what compo pick a proposed salary and tenure of contact will achieve to enable a fully informed decision to be made?

No, they definitively will not.

 

[Mego Red]

Jordan De Goey like if everything went well in his development?

Okay, fair enough. I can see that.

 

[Mego Red]

Mid/Forward

Go watch the U17's future stars where it's the best playing the best. 188cm is near on 6ft 2" and that's the minimum until he's measured at the Combine.

I've watched that game a couple of times, probably most people on the board have. It's more interesting than watching the first 13 games of this year.

185 seems to be the consensus on Ford? I googled it when watching his videos the other day, because he leapt at everything like he was 6'4".

 

[1990crow]

In the last 40 years, how many pick ones have won a premiership?

I didn't specifically say pick 1. Top picks. Ie top 5. We have none next season currently on our list. Drafting was also basically a luck of the draw until the late 90s. So you can only really assess from 2000 to 2011 (2012 onwards may still result in flags).

But Luke Hodge won 4 premierships.
Nick Riewoldt should have won 2 if not for Ross Lyon being coach. Same for Brendan Goddard.
If Ryan Griffen and Adam Cooney stayed at the dogs they would have been. Their currency would've aided Dogs anyhow to get..
Tom Boyd.
Carlton have been horrible at developing careers and squads so Murphy, Kreuzer, Gibbs, Weitering, Walsh don't count. Lol Carlton.
GWS pick 1s should also have done better over past couple of years (Patton, Whitfield)
GCs may just get there (Swallow, Rowell)
NicNat should've been number 1 over Watts.
Scully went to a deadbeat club. Good player though.

I more meant top 5 picks.

If we say the year 2000 is when drafting became a science worth predicting, let's say 6 years on as a guide, players entering their prime.

2006.
Chris Judd
2007.
Selwood (Pick 7), Bartel (Pick 8), Corey (Pick 8), Ottens (pick 2)
2008.
Hodge, Franklin, Roughead, Ellis, Croad, Lewis (Pick 7)
2009
Selwood, Bartel, Corey, Ottens, Hawkins (would've gone number 1)
2010
Pendlebury, Thomas, Didak, Ball
2011
Selwood, Bartel, Ottens, Hawkins
2012
McVeigh
2013
Hale (pick 7), Hodge, Lewis, Franklin, Roughead
2014
Hale, Hodge, Lewis, Roughead
2015
Hodge, Lewis, Roughead, Hale
2016
Boyd, Bontempelli, Stringer, MacRae (Six)
2017
Cotchin, Martin
2018
Masten, Kennedy
2019
Cotchin, Martin

 

[Dangerousfield]

if someone bids for campbell before sydney's pick do sydney then have to use pick 3 for him? if so f*n do it. f!@k sydney. dont let them have 2 top 10 picks.

Clubs don't bid on a player before his likely position in the draft just to harm another club, bad karma and your club's reputation goes down the gurgler for future dealings. You only need to look at previous drafts, players get a bid around the consensus pick or later. Tom Green last year looked 3-5, got a bid at 10.

JUH is consensus number one pick, should be bid on at pick one to wipe out the Dogs from the draft but may or may not get bid on at pick one. Campbell seems to be rated 6-10, likely to get bid on towards the end of that range. Jones for Port 10-15, may be bid on there or later.

Other than Dodo, clubs behave in a friendly and civilised manner in these matters, it's only supporters on forums that act like tools. Hi Snake Baker!

 

[Mutineer]

Okay, fair enough. I can see that.

I was just about to ask you what's not to like?
I'd take Perkins before him still and he's not likely to be available at pick 20 but there's plenty to like about his game.

 

[119others]

No, they definitively will not.

thinking laterally the other option is we take a salary dump player from them to help the cats bump up their contract by another 100k per year.

Not sure of specifics but am sure most clubs have at least 1-2 players on 2+ year deals left to run that they now regret. For the crows, Gibbs and Sloane are obvious examples and McKay has been for most of the last 4 years.

If Geelong says take (marginal) player X on 250k year for the next 2 years and we have any semblance of interest, I wonder if this could mean they would throw the extra cash saved at Crouch to ensure they get him as a FA (not giving up any first round picks), Crows get pick 2 and we tolerate a marginal player for a couple of years which obviously we need to have at least some interest in.

Just a thought

 

[Mutineer]

I've watched that game a couple of times, probably most people on the board have. It's more interesting than watching the first 13 games of this year.

185 seems to be the consensus on Ford? I googled it when watching his videos the other day, because he leapt at everything like he was 6'4".

Pete Williams and the AFL Draft Central lads have him 188cm, that's good enough for me, and I've seen him play and he's a pretty imposing build.

AFL Draft Watch: Eddie Ford (Western Jets/Vic Metro)

IN the build up to football eventually returning, Draft Central takes a look at some of this year’s brightest names who have already represented their state at Under 17 or Under 18s level in 2019. While plenty can change between now and then, we will provide a bit of an insight into players, how...

afl.draftcentral.com.au

 

[phill5158]

Nailed it. Just need that pick 2.

Would be a very good draft it it goes similar to what you have. So much potential with all those picks and really hoping at least half of them can be ready made for 2021.

 

[119others]

Heads up. None of these players in general get injuries accidentally, they are usually doing stupid things outside the Club that places them in a high degree of risk.

Didnt we have a player once that fell off a car? I mean FFS if you act like a campaigner with your body, sh*t will happen.

The smart ones, try to mask the injury, come to training and then claim they got injured here rather than away from the Club.

Given that Brouch has played footy to right up to the last game, IMO dont think he will need to do any major checkups to test his body by opposition medical staff.

haha, that was Danger in 2009 preseason and Craigy was furious

EDIT

It was Symes

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I’ve never seen a player so natural off both his left and his right foot. He Literally kicks set shots for goal off either foot depending on which side of the ground he is on and the wind! I don’t think I have ever seen that before.

Leon Cameron was the same with both feet ......but for 200 cm Cox is very quick, like his footy IQ too

Would pose a very awkward matchup at AFL level

I love talls that jump at the ball

 

[Thetrader15]

I was just about to ask you what's not to like?
I'd take Perkins before him still and he's not likely to be available at pick 20 but there's plenty to like about his game.

*Warning: High expectation player comparison alter*

Reminds me of some of Dangerfield's U18 highlights. He has that speed, loves to jump at the ball and good in traffic.

OK, so we are going to need about 5 more first round picks

 

[tinman]

You don't trade pick 1 until you've received the compo pick for Brad .....it could be the pick after our first round, so if we traded #1 out to say #5, then Brads compo pick would be #6 instead of #2 .....that would be dumb

So if we intend on bidding on JUH. And the Bullies intend matching. We don’t have the first live pick anyway.
So if they can get pick 2 from NM, why wouldn’t we trade 1 for 2 plus another pick, maybe a 2021 selection?
we don’t owe the Bullies any favours but if we are net beneficiaries we should not dismiss the possibility

 

[Dangarman]

Can we combine our free agency picks for Atkins and Brouch to get pick 2?

I mean, if we are playing lets ask a question that's been answered like 10+ times in this thread

This from AFL website: https://www.afl.com.au/about-afl/free-agency

Let's assume that it is current information, and now it's up to the BF pseudolawyers to interpret.

A club that has a net loss of players transferring to/from other clubs as free agents in one transfer period is entitled to compensation via National Draft picks allocated by the AFL.

That would suggest that one club could be awarded multiple picks, but could mean the AFL give picks (plural) to multiple clubs. If it was one club one pick, then saying compensation via a National Draft pick would have been much clearer.


The compensation formula produces a points rating for players based on:

1. The new contract of the free agent;
2. The age of the free agent.

So there are only 2 variables, we knew that already.

Draft picks are allocated to clubs based on the net total points for free agents lost and gained during the transfer period.

Woah! Net total points? That would clearly suggest only one pick! But, they've used plural again, which could mean the collective picks to all clubs. The compensation draft pick allocated... would have been much clearer if it is one club one pick.

Finally,

Draft picks will be allocated to one of five places:
• 1st round
• end of 1st round
• 2nd round
• end of 2nd round
• 3rd round

Assuming Brad is at least 1st or 2nd band, we get pick 2 or 19 before all the matchy-matchy stuff happens. That much IS clear. But whether Brad + Atkins out equals one pick or two picks, I am none the wiser from this description.

Precedent is now king. Are there examples of what happened when a club has a net loss >= 2 FA players?

 

[DJ75]

*Warning: High expectation player comparison alter*

Reminds me of some of Dangerfield's U18 highlights. He has that speed, loves to jump at the ball and good in traffic.

OK, so we are going to need about 5 more first round picks

One of the more impressive highlight packages. Speed, aggression, hurt factor, athleticism. Like it all.