Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[crow2crow]

Yeah look, I don’t know. Sorry but if the recruiting team went in with a PR slant to placate fans it would be negligent. Don’t give a fig if it a media dream and if they did I’d want them replaced.
We need outside mid speed but I don’t agree that it will come from pick one.
Tex is cooked and Lynch is on the back end of his career so the biggest need imo is key forward.
McDonald and TT are the candidates and I prefer McDonald.

i didnt say that at all
hollands is needs is what i said read. the media is bonus

 

[hey shorty]

Has Poulter been tearing it in the SANFL against men?..

No because he's playing in a much better side than Jackson was.

I'm saying he'll end up as good, not that he's as good right now.

 

[Red mist]

i didnt say that at all
hollands is needs is what i said read. the media is bonus

Predominantly forward/mid is not the need though at one. It’s key forward.
Shiny toy gimme gimme Holland’s definitely but logic says key forward.

 

[Trigger13]

The more I watch him I don't think his fitness is up to standard.

Is this just as much a reflection of the AFC? Surely they’d be setting him programs — or at the very least getting into his ear about work rate. Says a lot about his attitude if in his U18 year he is not putting in the work. Pass for me.

 

[Flying_as_One1991]

Can you imagine the uproar if we didn’t pick tilthorpe with our first.

 

[crow2crow]

Predominantly forward/mid is not the need though at one. It’s key forward.
Shiny toy gimme gimme Holland’s definitely but logic says key forward.

it's laughable-have a look at whos kicking goals in footy circa 2020 its not key forwards in general

 

[Red mist]

it's laughable-have a look at whos kicking goals in footy circa 2020 its not key forwards in general

17 game season with 16 minute quarters is a one off hopefully. The game has been hybridised this yr. Teams that adapted their strategies best on the hop with mid depth have flourished.
Extend the quarters and more rounds brings back normality where key posts have greater factor.

 

[crow2crow]

17 game season with 16 minute quarters is a one off hopefully. The game has been hybridised this yr. Teams that adapted their strategies best on the hop with mid depth have flourished.
Extend the quarters and more rounds brings back normality where key posts have greater factor.

i think its a longer trend. qtrs and games hmm not sure. big men get taller the longer the day goes. the only way talls add value is if you get the centre clearance during 666 time. if we dont win makority centre clearance next year we will finish bottom again. our A grade midfielders are older our forwards are not. mids in the need not forwards.

 

[GreyCrow]

its got to be hollands with 1 purely on needs. fact that he is crows supporter will be afc media dream. no brainer despite ACL most experts have him no 1 barring NGA

if I had 2 as well from brad compo I would bid on cambell as well because I see nathan buckley there in front of me and thats still my needs. i have not seen a player that looks like that since seeing buckley at port in the early days - not sure about anyone else. sydney will match. suddenly what was pick 9 after brad compo stays 9 and not pushed out. win. if they do not bid I would be ecstatic but I now assume they match bid.

i would not bid on JUH. dont want him dont need him and doesnt help the position of the pick 9.

I would now trade 3 to north for 4 on the night to buy time and see what they do. there are pros and cons with TT and mcdonald each. its not clear.

If they pick mcdonald with 2, I take TT with 3. if TT vice versa. obviously we get something back but you are also maintaining control of the draft for longer.

if north took neither and say took phillips to replace cunnington. i trade down a spot again with hawthorn (sydneys pick is gone). loop back to the TT or Mcdonald convo collecting something from hawthorn as well.

by this stage all of my 5 listed names will be gone. the phillips scenario would knly happen at north if they collected FA daniher or cameron prior.

just my 2c

Don't mind your 2c

My one nitpick is you identify Holland as being good a crows fan and a marketers dream

All good

But then you ignore Thilthorpe who brings the same at pick 2

If your criteria is afc fan and good player then Thilthorpe over McDonald is easy

 

[Red mist]

i think its a longer trend. qtrs and games hmm not sure. big men get taller the longer the day goes. the only way talls add value is if you get the centre clearance during 666 time. if we dont win makority centre clearance next year we will finish bottom again. our A grade midfielders are older our forwards are not. mids in the need not forwards.

The ball goes inside fifty through turnover and around ground stoppage three times more than a centre ball up. So about three minutes a game the ground is set to 6/6/6. Then the teams go and set themselves up the way they like.
Yeah nah 6/6/6 isn’t the only way talls add value at all. They Create contests even outnumbered, bring the ball to ground in positive territory for the fleet of followers and finish off the work when they pluck grabs, cos you know, they don’t get smaller as you said.

 

[Big Dub]

it's laughable-have a look at whos kicking goals in footy circa 2020 its not key forwards in general

Actually, I think it might be. Particularly at the top end, which is where you'd expect a top 3 pick to end up (not many key forwards projected pre-draft as top 3 picks, from memory)

​

AFL Goalkickers Total Statistics for Season 2020

Name Team Games Goals Behinds Score Marks Shots % Last Game Tom Hawkins​ Geelong​ 17​ 42​ 25​ 277​ 90​ 67​ 62.7​ 2 v Sydney, Round 18​ Charlie Dixon​ Port Adelaide​ 16​ 32​ 21​ 213​ 65​ 53​ 60.4​ 1 v Collingwood, Round 18​ Joshua Kennedy​ West Coast​ 16​ 31​ 18​ 204​ 63​ 49​ 63.3​ 0 v North Melbourne, Round 18​ Jack Gunston​ Hawthorn​ 16​ 31​ 21​ 207​ 68​ 52​ 59.6​ 4 v Gold Coast, Round 18​ Matthew Taberner​ Fremantle​ 16​ 29​ 13​ 187​ 92​ 42​ 69.0​ 3 v North Melbourne, Round 17​ Tom Lynch​ Richmond​ 16​ 28​ 20​ 188​ 54​ 48​ 58.3​ 1 v Geelong, Round 17​ Jack Riewoldt​ Richmond​ 17​ 28​ 15​ 183​ 68​ 43​ 65.1​ 2 v Adelaide, Round 18​ Daniel Butler​ St Kilda​ 17​ 27​ 11​ 173​ 34​ 38​ 71.1​ 1 v GWS, Round 18​

 

[On The Crouch]

Geez, getting pick 2 is key. It’ll open up so many options for us to increase our strength in this draft.

Having pick 1, 2, 9, 21 (not allowing for other compo picks) allows us to target teams like Bullies, Swans and Pies whom have highly rated NGAs. We are in a position to gain another 1st rounder, which means we can target both KPFs and midfielders, and allows us to take a calculated risk or 2 on guys that have X-factor and with plenty of upside. This draft could completely change the dynamic of our team going forward. However, we need pick 2 to make our draft really count.

 

[Mutineer]

No because he's playing in a much better side than Jackson was.

I'm saying he'll end up as good, not that he's as good right now.

On what I've seen at the same age Hately definitely had a superior inside game than Poulter, Poulter I think will be more a wing/half forward/mid in that order, to become a dominant mid he will have plenty of work to do on his inside game IMO. Poulter certainly has more WOW factor however.

 

[crow2crow]

The ball goes inside fifty through turnover and around ground stoppage three times more than a centre ball up. So about three minutes a game the ground is set to 6/6/6. Then the teams go and set themselves up the way they like.
Yeah nah 6/6/6 isn’t the only way talls add value at all. They Create contests even outnumbered, bring the ball to ground in positive territory for the fleet of followers and finish off the work when they pluck grabs, cos you know, they don’t get smaller as you said.

we have talls one is 21 the other is 22

how old are our best mids? 26,27,27,30

look im taking a tall with pick 2 if we have it but not if we only have pick 1

 

[Red mist]

we have talls one is 21 the other is 22

how old are our best mids? 26,27,27,30

look im taking a tall with pick 2 if we have it but not if we only have pick 1

I know you are, and shiny toy me would take Hollands as well. Great talent. Again logic says key forward.

 

[Mutineer]

Josh Jenkins levels of speed/athleticism?

Maybe not quite as quick but certainly equally athletic and far superior endurance to Josh Jenkins ,and incredibly good below his knees for a 200cm giant. And as for chop out Ruck don't even go there, there's no comparison, Jenkins' ruckwork was sub standard.

 

[Mutineer]

You saw them as 16 year olds .....with respect, trying to judge a 16 year old and extrapolate their chances in senior footy is farcical

I've said this many times, even judging a players 17th year is difficult .....a players development is hugely impacted by their physical and mental development during this phase ......some stop growing, some put on a growth spurt, some just flatten out in development terms .....at least this year, recruiters had U17 tapes, grand finals, and the all-star game to fall back on .......but next year the recruiters won't have that at all

This isn't bad, as it's better to be watching & rating players in their Draft Year .......but predicting 2 years out is laughable ......hell even Knightmare is on record that he'll be guessing next year

And player rankings by so called experts changes 50% from the start of every year to Draft night ......hell Logan McDonald wasn't even on the boards of experts 6 months ago

So no, you can't predict next years draft with anymore than a 50% probability

We'll agree to disagree then, the stand outs at the U16's Championships are generally 1st rounders in their draft year....The Clayton Oliver's are the exception not the rule.

 

[Mutineer]

Under 16 All-Australian team announced: Including Tyson Edwards’ son Luke, Taj Schofield and Will Phillips

Sons of guns headline Under 16 All-Australian squad

www.foxsports.com.au

POCKET PROFILES

DEFENDERS



Brandon Walker (Western Australia): Rebounding medium defender who is a smart footballer and is an effective kick. Averaged 13.3 disposals at 75 per cent efficiency throughout the carnival. Walker is eligible for the Fremantle Dockers as a Next-Generation Academy member.

Denver Granger-Barras (Western Australia): Key position defender who is a tough player to be against in a one-on-one contest. Granger-Barras has the ability to find the football and gets the ball moving forward with multiple effective rebounds. Averaged 13.7 disposals, 5.3 marks and 6.0 rebound 50s throughout the carnival.

Sam Collins (Tasmania): The Tasmanian 186cm defender was one of the standout players in Division Two, with Collins averaging 18.3 disposals, 7.0 marks and 6.3 rebound 50s. The Tasmanian co-captain won their MVP award, after performing exceptionally well in defensive 50 where he was able to intercept multiple opposition attacks.

Braeden Campbell (NSW/ACT): The left footed Sydney Swans Academy member was an effective kick in the defensive half of the ground for NSW/ACT in the Division Two championships. Campbell averaged 19.3 disposals at 74 per cent efficiency, making good decisions with ball in hand.

Ethan Baxter (Vic Country): The mobile tall defender was one of Vic Country’s shining lights in a poor carnival that saw them not win a single game. Baxter is a strong mark overhead and competes well in one-on-one contests.

Jye Sinderberry (South Australia): Medium defender who makes his disposals count, hitting targets with ease. Sinderberry averaged 10.3 disposals at 72 per cent efficiency throughout the championships. The West Adelaide defender was impressive in South Australia’s win over Vic Metro with 12 disposals and seven rebound 50s.

RUCKMAN

Riley Thilthorpe (South Australia): 198cm ruckman Thilthorpe averaged 21.3 hit outs during the Under 18 Championships. The tall is a good mark overhead, averaging 5.0 marks for the carnival and has the ability to find the football around the ground.

MIDFIELDERS

Will Phillips (Vic Metro): The Vic Metro midfielder was the leading disposal winner for the carnival, averaging 27.7 disposals (15.7 contested) and four tackles. Phillips has a good footy IQ and has quick and clean hands in the contest. He was Vic Metro’s MVP and had a big 32 disposals, seven clearance and two goal game against eventual champions South Australia.

Tanner Bruhn (Vic Country): The Vic Country MVP was a standout player possessing good game sense and has strong skills. The 180cm midfielder averaged 17.3 disposals, 6.3 tackles and 3.7 marks for the carnival.

Luke Edwards (South Australia): The son of Adelaide Crows great Tyson was a consistent performer for South Australia. Edwards is eligible to join the Crows as a father-son prospect in 2020 and the composed midfielder makes good decisions with ball in hand. Edwards averaged 16.3 disposals (10.3 contested), six tackles and 2.7 clearances during the championships.

Zane Trew (Western Australia): The WA midfielder is willing to crack in hard at the stoppages and possesses clean hands. Trew is a good decision maker and averaged 18.7 disposals (9.7 contested), 4.3 clearances and 3.7 tackles.

Corey Durdin (South Australia): Durdin was the standout player across the entire competition, winning the Kevin Sheehan Medal as the best player in Division One. The 172cm midfielder has good speed and agility, and was the standout player for South Australia winning their MVP. Durdin averaged 19.7 disposals and 2.7 clearances.

FORWARDS

Elijah Hollands (Vic Country): The son of forward Richmond player Ben showed his class in the attacking half of the ground. The left footer is a strong mark and possesses good speed and agility. Hollands averaged 14.3 disposals, 3.7 marks and 2.3 tackles for Vic Country.

Kaine Baldwin (South Australia): The strong bodied 192cm key forward was outstanding in one-on-one battles against his opponents during the carnival. Baldwin averaged 15 disposals, 6.7 marks and two goals during the carnival.

Errol Gulden (NSW/ACT): Gulden was the best player in Division Two, winning the Allan McLean Medal. The Sydney Swans Academy prospect is a strong ball winner and has a strong footy IQ. The left footed 172cm midfielder averaged 31.7 disposals, 5.7 tackles, 4.7 clearances and two goals throughout the championships.

Taj Schofield (Western Australia): The son of Port Adelaide 2004 premiership player Jarrod was an outstanding performer for Western Australia. Schofield is eligible to join the Power in 2020 and the small forward/midfielder is a clean ball user by hand and foot. Schofield averaged 17 disposals and 4.7 tackles for the carnival.

Logan McDonald (Western Australia): Tall forward McDonald was a mainstay inside 50 for Western Australia, clunking multiple overhead marks. McDonald booted a big bag of six goals against Vic Metro, averaging 10.3 disposals, five marks and three goals throughout the entire championships.

Jackson Callow (Tasmania): The Tasmanian tall forward is a strong mark and was rarely beaten inside 50 in Division Two. Callow averaged 12.7 disposals, 8.7 marks and 3.3 goals for the championships.

INTERCHANGE

Alex Davies (Queensland): The Gold Coast Suns Academy member is an exceptional player at the stoppages, where he can use his quick and clean hands to effectiveness. Davies averaged 18.7 disposals (14.7 contested), 6.7 clearances and four tackles as one of Queensland’s best players in Division Two.

Nathan O’Driscoll (Western Australia): The 181cm medium defender is a good intercept mark and has the ability to win one-on-one battles. O’Driscoll averaged 17 disposals and three marks for WA.

Oliver Davis (Tasmania): The Tasmanian midfielder is a dual-sport athlete, representing his state in soccer. Davis cracks in hard at the contest and is willing to tackle hard to win the ball back. Davis averaged 20.7 disposals (12.0 contested), 6.7 clearances and 6.0 tackles for the Division Two.

Malcolm Ross (Northern Territory): The NT small forward was an excitement package throughout the carnival, where he showed off his lightening speed. Ross averaged 18 disposals, 4.5 inside 50s and four tackles in Division Two.

Campbell Edwards (Vic Metro): Versatile tall that has the ability to play at both ends of the ground. The left footer is a smart ball user and was impressive in Vic Metro’s final game of the carnival against South Australia, with 12 disposals, three marks and two goals.

Coach: Julian Franks (South Australia)

Assistant coach: Nathan Warren (Tasmania)

The Under-16 All-Australian Team was selected by AFL Academy Coach Luke Power, AFL Talent Ambassador Kevin Sheehan, AFL Talent ID Co-ordinator Simon Young and AFL club recruiting personnel Ed McMullin (Fremantle), Stephen Nash (WCE) and Adrian Caruso (GWS Giants).

 

[huludicidal]

Can you imagine the uproar if we didn’t pick tilthorpe with our first.

If we hold onto Pick 1, there is a VERY LOW chance that we are selecting Thilthorpe - I haven’t seen one mock draft that has us doing that, and I haven’t seen one set of power rankings from a draft expert that has Thilthorpe ranked in the top 2.

There won’t be much uproar at all from anyone with a clue if we pick Hollands over Thilthorpe I can assure you.

There MIGHT be some conjecture if we go with McDonald over Thilthorpe (as they are both key talls so a lot would assume we’d take the SA lad), but a lot of the Thilthorpe vs McDonald decision will come down to exactly what type of tall our recruiters are looking for. Thilthorpe is your genuine Fwd / Ruck, while McDonald is your genuine Tom Lynch (Richmond) style tall forward.

If we ignore all of those 3 players and select someone else (I’m not including Campbell or Ugle-Hagan because I’m all for bidding on them), then there will be uproar, but it’s very difficult to see that happening.

If we get our dream scenario of Band 1 compensation for B Crouch, I think there would be the typical clueless 5AA crowd who would lose their minds if we didn’t select Thilthorpe with one of those picks, but if we decided to go with Hollands and McDonald, I certainly wouldn’t be mad. I would be equally happy with Hollands and Thilthorpe. I think taking both talls would be an error.

 

[GROTTO]

Geez, getting pick 2 is key. It’ll open up so many options for us to increase our strength in this draft.

Having pick 1, 2, 9, 21 (not allowing for other compo picks) allows us to target teams like Bullies, Swans and Pies whom have highly rated NGAs. We are in a position to gain another 1st rounder, which means we can target both KPFs and midfielders, and allows us to take a calculated risk or 2 on guys that have X-factor and with plenty of upside. This draft could completely change the dynamic of our team going forward. However, we need pick 2 to make our draft really count.

Ive said from Day 1.

Brad is answer to everything.

He shapes the entire draft. He shapes the short term futures of those Clubs after us, it isnt funny.

Pick 2 gives us power to get a deal to lead to multiple 1sts even. If the Hawks lose Gunston, they may look at our Pick 2 for their Pick 4 and their 2021 1st to not only get ahead of North but even us as well?

What strategies to be played out is going to be so fascinating. The only caveat here is that it assumes Brad's compo is Pick 2.

Its the AFL. So anything could happen Pick 2, to a end of 1st rounder too.

 

[On The Crouch]

Ive said from Day 1.

Brad is answer to everything.

He shapes the entire draft. He shapes the short term futures of those Clubs after us, it isnt funny.

Pick 2 gives us power to get a deal to lead to multiple 1sts even. If the Hawks lose Gunston, they may look at our Pick 2 for their Pick 4 and their 2021 1st to not only get ahead of North but even us as well?

What strategies to be played out is going to be so fascinating. The only caveat here is that it assumes Brad's compo is Pick 2.

Its the AFL. So anything could happen Pick 2, to a end of 1st rounder too.

Agreed, pick 2 gives us a smorgasbord of choices and the club knows it and is trying to use it to our advantage.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Personally I don't see any difference in Zac Williams contract worth and Brad Crouches ......in fact there's an argument that Brad is more valuable to some teams as a "known" midfielder

The price you have to pay: All the top trade targets and their market value

Mitch Cleary looks at the value of this year's potential trade and free agency targets

www.afl.com.au

In 2019, the average player wage was more than $401,000 for players who featured at AFL level. While that figure reduced by roughly 29 per cent in 2020, it is expected to level out heading into 2021.

Luring a target out of his original home typically forces the new club to pay overs, while destination clubs are often happy to pay even more for free agents knowing they won't have to part with a draft pick.

With Gold Coast's concession (now with Geelong) and a host of first-round compensations predicted, this year's second round could start around pick No.24-25.


JACKSON HATELY (GWS)

Draft picks: Mid-to-late second round pick
Value on open market: $300,000-400,000 per season

Has played 13 games in his two seasons at the Giants after being taken at pick No.14 in the 2018 NAB AFL Draft. The South Australian has interest from the Crows to return home, but don't expect them to pay through the roof for a player entering his third season.


BRAD CROUCH (ADELAIDE)

Draft picks: First-round / end-of-first-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $650,000-750,000 per season

The Victorian is searching for a five-year contract and admitted this week he doesn't have a contract offer from the Crows. He looks to be out the door but now it's about finding a club willing to offer enough that will secure Adelaide a first-round compensation pick (would fall at pick No.2). Five years at more than $700,000 would likely be enough and it would avoid the Crows matching and forcing a trade. Like all restricted free agents, suitors would be willing to pay more for the contract to avoid a trade, however the interesting watch on Crouch will be
the length of term, given his history of soft tissue injuries. Geelong has interest and while Port Adelaide have been linked, it's unlikely they'll offer five years


ZAC WILLIAMS (GWS)

Draft picks: First-round compensation pick
Value on open market: $800,000-900,000 per season

Locked in on a long-term deal at Carlton believed to be upwards of $800,000 per season after the Blues edged out North Melbourne for his services. It will net the Giants a first-round compensation pick that will fall after their first selection at pick eight (a selection that's in the possession of the Crows after a trade last year).

 

[WaynesWorld19]

WILL BRODIE (GC)

Draft picks: Late third-round pick
Value on open market: $250,000-350,000

Both Brodie and Gold Coast are both on the same page that a fresh start would be the best result. Now it's about finding a suitor that will take on his current deal that has two years to run. Like a few other contracted players, he will need to wait for some of the high-profile midfield free agents to make their calls. Essendon is crying out for a big-bodied midfielder, and with Ollie Wines now to stay at Port Adelaide, attention could turn to Brodie.


ORAZIO FANTASIA (ESS)

Draft picks: Early-to-mid second-round pick
Value on open market: $450,000-550,000

Has undergone independent medical testing that will give Adelaide and Port Adelaide greater clarity on what's been holding him back in 2020. The speedy forward managed only five games this season due to constant soft tissue setbacks. His value has dropped from 12 months ago when he was seeking more than $600,000 to depart but is again weighing up his future. The bargaining power for Essendon will have also lowered given he now only has one year left on a contract and was been unable to reach his best this year.

 

[hendo8888]

These values are all over the place.
How is Daniher worth so much?
How is Brown worth so little?
How is Williams worth 150k more than Crouch?
How is Viney worth so much?
How is Caldwell worth more than Daicos?
If Wright is only going to cost league average and a third rounder, you'd pay that in a second.

 

[hendo8888]

Ive said from Day 1.

Brad is answer to everything.

He shapes the entire draft. He shapes the short term futures of those Clubs after us, it isnt funny.

Pick 2 gives us power to get a deal to lead to multiple 1sts even. If the Hawks lose Gunston, they may look at our Pick 2 for their Pick 4 and their 2021 1st to not only get ahead of North but even us as well?

What strategies to be played out is going to be so fascinating. The only caveat here is that it assumes Brad's compo is Pick 2.

Its the AFL. So anything could happen Pick 2, to a end of 1st rounder too.

It's a win-win for us. Unless the AFL wants to * us, which is always a possibility, we're in a position to do what's best for us.
We keep Crouch, great. He's one of our best players. He's still pretty young.
We let him go, it's because someone has thrown him a big enough contract that we get pick 2. Which is good for us, and it's good for Crouch.
We've basically set the market for him. Pay Brad enough to get us Pick 2, or we keep him. You want him, pay the man.