Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[Hodgy]

I think it's good that people are suggesting trades, but I also think it's good if we point out when they are unrealistic.

We don't need to be dicks, but Essendon aren't trading pick 6 for Talia, say.

Melbourne gave pick 6 for May, who was a couple years younger but nowhere near as good and definitely not as professional in the fitness department as Jenny. I would expect Talia to play at least 2 years longer than May.
pick 10-12 would be about right but Essendon don’t have that.
put it this way, I can’t imagine that Adelaide would entertain trading a contracted multi all Australian, best and fairest winner for less than a mid 1st.

 

[Brett Cummings]

I think essendon are going to be in for more pain. I can see rutten flopping as coach.

 

[Hodgy]

all sounds good but the dogs trade is so speculative, their pick could be 19 and you end up trading couple of picks in 20s for 18 or 19 makes no sense. sydney is the better trade partner, probably moving what would be 9 after bcrouch compo to 5 IMO

not taking two ACL players. we need hollands we don’t need baldwin.

You wouldn’t be trading 2 picks in the 20’s though. If their pick was 19 (which sounds somewhat unlikely as they would have to win the flag), it would be worth 948 points so we would only need to give them picks 31 and 44.
It certainly would be risky taking Baldwin and would depend on doctors reports, but his upside is huge and if we get him with a pick in the 20’s during a rebuild then it could well be worth it.
i bet someone takes the risk.

 

[crow2crow]

You wouldn’t be trading 2 picks in the 20’s though. If their pick was 19 (which sounds somewhat unlikely as they would have to win the flag), it would be worth 948 points so we would only need to give them picks 31 and 44.
It certainly would be risky taking Baldwin and would depend on doctors reports, but his upside is huge and if we get him with a pick in the 20’s during a rebuild then it could well be worth it.
i bet someone takes the risk.

when trading higher in draft typically 20-30% premium is paid on top of summed points value - sometimes more

 

[Crow Envy]

Talia ain’t going from one struggling club to another with players wanting out, the Essendon rumour is bullshit.

 

[Murray2503]

Talia ain’t going from one struggling club to another with players wanting out, the Essendon rumour is bullshit.

Likely bs. The only way I see him going is if a coaching job is attached to the end of the playing deal.

 

[LC40]

Heath Chapman Key Defender 193cm

 

[Mutineer]

Heath Chapman Key Defender 193cm

I doubt he plays a key defender role at AFL level on what I've seen, He's more an intercept marking 3rd tall IMO.

 

[skittlebrew]

Talia ain’t going from one struggling club to another with players wanting out, the Essendon rumour is bullshit.

Talia isn't an idiot and by all reports pretty business savvy. The end is nearing, sign one last decent contract now while he can. I would be extremely surprised if it didn't include a coaching gig afterwards - which would also be a major incentive.

 

[Hodgy]

when trading higher in draft typically 20-30% premium is paid on top of summed points value - sometimes more

The idea of doing a trade like this with The Bulldogs is based on the unique fact this year that the player is generally a consensus pick 1 and we will have picks 1 and 2. This gives us the ability to promise not to bid with these first 2 picks, which would save them at least 613 points on what they would need to match. Therefore in your example of pick 19 for 31 and 44 they would be 60% better off than if we didn’t do the trade and bid at 1.
If you don’t believe a club will look at something like that you only have to look to last year and see that GWS gave up a future 1st (pick 8 as it turns out) To move up 2 spots, simply because they believed we would bid on Green.

 

[crow2crow]

The idea of doing a trade like this with The Bulldogs is based on the unique fact this year that the player is generally a consensus pick 1 and we will have picks 1 and 2. This gives us the ability to promise not to bid with these first 2 picks, which would save them at least 613 points on what they would need to match. Therefore in your example of pick 19 for 31 and 44 they would be 60% better off than if we didn’t do the trade and bid at 1.
If you don’t believe a club will look at something like that you only have to look to last year and see that GWS gave up a future 1st (pick 8 as it turns out) To move up 2 spots, simply because they believed we would bid on Green.

i have not named a swap of picks at all for 19 - the reverse. i’m just saying i don’t think the dogs is a good trading partner and sydney makes more sense to me

maybe it’s because i believe dogs will go deeper in the finals than others

 

[TryAnHit]

i have not named a swap of picks at all for 19 - the reverse. i’m just saying i don’t think the dogs is a good trading partner and sydney makes more sense to me

maybe it’s because i believe dogs will go deeper in the finals than others

We can't threaten to bid on Campbell at 1 tho, as he's not near the top3... swans may not even match and take one of the other big 3....

Dogs are always matching reason the trade works better with them.

Sydney will think they get a top 3 pick + Campbell

 

[crow2crow]

We can't threaten to bid on Campbell at 1 tho, as he's not near the top3... swans may not even match and take one of the other big 3....

Dogs are always matching reason the trade works better with them.

Sydney will think they get a top 3 pick + Campbell

i’m not so sure cambell doesn’t get a bid. i like the look of him more than phillips but that’s me

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Who would you take with pick 1 Bicks ?

 

[WaynesWorld19]

IF North have given Ben Brown his marching orders ......does that mean their plans are to take a tall KPP at #2

These decisions are either a Mexican negotiation standoff .....or they have a backup plan when making the call to dump a KPP

 

[Mutineer]

Who would you take with pick 1 Bicks ?

Braeden Campbell

Given it will almost certainly be matched I'd probably take Elijah Hollands depending on the medical report of course.....also a lot depends on whether we have pick 2 as well.....if we have pick 2 as well it would make that a lot easier decision.

 

[Hodgy]

Y

i have not named a swap of picks at all for 19 - the reverse. i’m just saying i don’t think the dogs is a good trading partner and sydney makes more sense to me

maybe it’s because i believe dogs will go deeper in the finals than others

yeah, fair enough. I’m sure they will trade whatever their first ends up being though, as it is 100% certain that someone bids on JUH before it, so any upgrade in points is worth it for them.
i suppose it depends on how interested we are in getting multiple picks in the 15 to 20 range or if we want to get a couple as high as possible.
personally I think this draft is going to see some real bargains later as there are so many question marks over kids who haven’t played or are coming off injuries.

 

[1990crow]

Be hilarious if North are getting rid of Brown because there's gun tall forwards at the top of the draft.

Then we get pick 2 and take McDonald and Thilthorpe.

 

[crow2crow]

Y

yeah, fair enough. I’m sure they will trade whatever their first ends up being though, as it is 100% certain that someone bids on JUH before it, so any upgrade in points is worth it for them.
i suppose it depends on how interested we are in getting multiple picks in the 15 to 20 range or if we want to get a couple as high as possible.
personally I think this draft is going to see some real bargains later as there are so many question marks over kids who haven’t played or are coming off injuries.

possibly but hollands isn’t sliding past pick 4. the pointy end of this draft is all i’m worried about next year will be different obviously. i also wouldn’t bid on JUH. I just don’t rate him - sure he will prove me wrong but his kicking is poor. unless they’re kicking is elite i don’t want them because we have so many poor kicks already.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Braeden Campbell

Given it will almost certainly be matched I'd probably take Elijah Hollands depending on the medical report of course.....also a lot depends on whether we have pick 2 as well.....if we have pick 2 as well it would make that a lot easier decision.

Good call re Campbell

failing that ( swans will match ) if we could somehow get Mcdonald and Holland’s I’d be ecstatic

 

[Mutineer]

Good call re Campbell

failing that ( swans will match ) if we could somehow get Mcdonald and Holland’s I’d be ecstatic

Just as long as Archie Perkins is there at our GWS pick and Zavier Maher is there at our 2nd round picks....then I'd be truly stoked

 

[LC40]

We can't threaten to bid on Campbell at 1 tho, as he's not near the top3... swans may not even match and take one of the other big 3....

Dogs are always matching reason the trade works better with them.

Sydney will think they get a top 3 pick + Campbell

Can't agree with you here. IMO he's the best midfielder in the draft.
Sydney will absolutely match the bid why wouldn't they.
Believe me if we could get Campbell it would be a win for us.

 

[TryAnHit]

Can't agree with you here. IMO he's the best midfielder in the draft.
Sydney will absolutely match the bid why wouldn't they.
Believe me if we could get Campbell it would be a win for us.

If he is the best mid then I hope we bid

 

[Hodgy]

possibly but hollands isn’t sliding past pick 4. the pointy end of this draft is all i’m worried about next year will be different obviously. i also wouldn’t bid on JUH. I just don’t rate him - sure he will prove me wrong but his kicking is poor. unless they’re kicking is elite i don’t want them because we have so many poor kicks already.

Totally agree. I’m only keen because I’m convinced that we will have 1 and 2 For McDonald/Tillthorpe and Holland’s. If we only have 1 then trading with Sydney makes total sense.
regardless of which one, our reputation of bidding when we think players are worth the spot has already helped us last year and will hold us in good stead this year.

 

[Brett Cummings]

We arent getting campbell so idk why people keep talking about him. He's going to sydney.