Resource 2020 Draft Watch (picks 1, 9, 20, 30, 45, 50, 60, 74) - updated R17 15/9/20

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Untouchables22

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I'm firmly in the Brad is going camp and think we will end up with Pick 2 as well.

No need to over capitalise up forward so I wouldn't be taking both McDonald and Tilthorpe.

My dream scenario:

Pick 1: Bid on JUH.
Pick 2: Hollands
Pick 3 - Trade to Hawthorn with Pick 20 for Pick 5 and R1/2021
Pick 5: Tilthorpe
GWS Pick: Best PURE Mid left, should be a fair choice.
Atkins Comp: Powell

Then NGA/FS picks.
 

Peter Doherty

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Agree. Also and I’ve not seen him live but way down the track could TT develop into a mobile ruck to replace ROB after playing as a forward for 5 years. ROB is already 25 I think. TT be given some on ball time in next few years to develop. But Hollands must be priority 1.
Good point. In 1-2 years we also could be saying how Berg showed signs in 2020 but didn't go on with it.
 

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Shaz2012

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I'm firmly in the Brad is going camp and think we will end up with Pick 2 as well.

No need to over capitalise up forward so I wouldn't be taking both McDonald and Tilthorpe.

My dream scenario:

Pick 1: Bid on JUH.
Pick 2: Hollands
Pick 3 - Trade to Hawthorn with Pick 20 for Pick 5 and R1/2021
Pick 5: Tilthorpe
GWS Pick: Best PURE Mid left, should be a fair choice.
Atkins Comp: Powell

Then NGA/FS picks.
Sounds good for us but why are Hawks doing that?
 

Mego Red

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I'm firmly in the Brad is going camp and think we will end up with Pick 2 as well.

No need to over capitalise up forward so I wouldn't be taking both McDonald and Tilthorpe.

My dream scenario:

Pick 1: Bid on JUH.
Pick 2: Hollands
Pick 3 - Trade to Hawthorn with Pick 20 for Pick 5 and R1/2021
Pick 5: Tilthorpe
GWS Pick: Best PURE Mid left, should be a fair choice.
Atkins Comp: Powell

Then NGA/FS picks.
I don't mind this, but there's no way Hawthorn does that, is there?

I can't see a single rebuilding team trading out of 2021. Our best hope would be GCS.

I think the best we could do with Hawthorn is probably a second, either this year or next.
 

Untouchables22

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Sounds good for us but why are Hawks doing that?
For McDonald.
I think clubs are going to ringing off the hook to try and get a hold of him.

It might be overs, but generally clubs have to pay overs to move up at that end of the draft.

You could be right though, might be too expensive for a club rebuilding. Sydney may be a better fit.
 

MarcusP2

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Yep, just like Freo and Port have their first picks slide back
So if you're going to be in deficit, trade out your first round picks for future first rounders, cop the deficit on already bad picks? Then once settled, trade in some first rounders that are unaffected?
 

PMBangers

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So if you're going to be in deficit, trade out your first round picks for future first rounders, cop the deficit on already bad picks? Then once settled, trade in some first rounders that are unaffected?
Well no, you'd have to be trading those picks preemptively (the previous year) since the 'repayment' so to speak happens pre-trade period, to avoid clubs just continuously taking advantage of the system. I think you could trade a future first for a current first after a bid match (i.e. Bulldogs trade their future first with geelong for Pick 17 or whatever after matching a bid for JUH) although I'm not certain around those rules
 

Betts are off

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To be honest i'd be happy with Thilthorpe or McDonald, but not both. I feel like picking both is just welcoming a very awkward selection problem for years to come. We've fought hard to fix the balance in our forward line, and right now I feel like we need 1 tall, not 2!

For me the most crucial factor on deciding which would be best is nothing to do with talent, but more to do with fit! I.e. Which of those 2 would fit with what we have, and make our forward line the most dangerous.

Right now we have a problem with TEX/FOG being in the same forward line, they both play the leading option and neither have shown that they can mark the high ball into the top of the square. For me, this is the #1 missing element of our forward line. A dangerous big bodied MARKING player 10-30m from goal, which would free Berg up to play further up the ground, and FOG to play as the leading power forward.

To be honest both Thilly and Logan are tall, and apparently very strong in the air, both look to have solid skills, can kick a goal and have sound forward instincts. The separation for me is the 4-5cm and 10-15kg that Thilly already has on Logan. That 5cm in height will probably equate to 10cm with highpoint reach, and the weight he carries is the kind of weight you hope an 18 year old develops in 2-3 years (Plus I highly doubt he's done yet).

As much as I like McDonald as a prospect and think he will be a absolute gun, I cant help but feel the more dangerous player in our forward line would be Thilly.

So for me I think we dangle pick 1 to who-ever wants McDonald badly enough to make a very lopsided trade! And then we take Thilly.
 

crow2crow

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Sep 13, 2020
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To be honest i'd be happy with Thilthorpe or McDonald, but not both. I feel like picking both is just welcoming a very awkward selection problem for years to come. We've fought hard to fix the balance in our forward line, and right now I feel like we need 1 tall, not 2!

For me the most crucial factor on deciding which would be best is nothing to do with talent, but more to do with fit! I.e. Which of those 2 would fit with what we have, and make our forward line the most dangerous.

Right now we have a problem with TEX/FOG being in the same forward line, they both play the leading option and neither have shown that they can mark the high ball into the top of the square. For me, this is the #1 missing element of our forward line. A dangerous big bodied MARKING player 10-30m from goal, which would free Berg up to play further up the ground, and FOG to play as the leading power forward.

To be honest both Thilly and Logan are tall, and apparently very strong in the air, both look to have solid skills, can kick a goal and have sound forward instincts. The separation for me is the 4-5cm and 10-15kg that Thilly already has on Logan. That 5cm in height will probably equate to 10cm with highpoint reach, and the weight he carries is the kind of weight you hope an 18 year old develops in 2-3 years (Plus I highly doubt he's done yet).

As much as I like McDonald as a prospect and think he will be a absolute gun, I cant help but feel the more dangerous player in our forward line would be Thilly.

So for me I think we dangle pick 1 to who-ever wants McDonald badly enough to make a very lopsided trade! And then we take Thilly.
Agree except I would take hollands with our first and only dangle the bcrouch compo pick 2 if a) it’s awarded otherwise keep brad and b) we cannot wedge rankine out of GC with it.
if we have compo pick 2 on the night ignore JUH) i would be happy trading that but only to north for pick 3 plus something. then you are guaranteed of mcdonald or thilthorpe (likely thilthorpe would be the one left as north will want a replacement for brown UNLESS Jcam ends up at north which could still happen). then I think that’s risky as north might want TT as a goldstein replacement.
 

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Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
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Agree except I would take hollands with our first and only dangle the bcrouch compo pick 2 if a) it’s awarded otherwise keep brad and b) we cannot wedge rankine out of GC with it.
if we have compo pick 2 on the night ignore JUH) i would be happy trading that but only to north for pick 3 plus something. then you are guaranteed of mcdonald or thilthorpe (likely thilthorpe would be the one left as north will want a replacement for brown UNLESS Jcam ends up at north which could still happen). then I think that’s risky as north might want TT as a goldstein replacement.
Yep, bottom line for me is if we can come out of this draft with Thilly, Hollands and a lopsided trade down (preferably into the 2021 1st round), then I wouldn't don't care how it gets done, i'm walking on freaken Sunshine!
 

LoBu

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Agree except I would take hollands with our first and only dangle the bcrouch compo pick 2 if a) it’s awarded otherwise keep brad and b) we cannot wedge rankine out of GC with it.
if we have compo pick 2 on the night ignore JUH) i would be happy trading that but only to north for pick 3 plus something. then you are guaranteed of mcdonald or thilthorpe (likely thilthorpe would be the one left as north will want a replacement for brown UNLESS Jcam ends up at north which could still happen). then I think that’s risky as north might want TT as a goldstein replacement.
Trading in players, while a solid option for the crows midfield (later picks for Hately et al), is not relevant when they are in contract in year 2 of a 4 year rebuild. Rankine and Luko signed contracts until the end of 2021, I'd be open to trading a future (2022 first) when they are out of contract, but we need to draft this year and next.
 

arsene wenger1

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For McDonald.
I think clubs are going to ringing off the hook to try and get a hold of him.

It might be overs, but generally clubs have to pay overs to move up at that end of the draft.

You could be right though, might be too expensive for a club rebuilding. Sydney may be a better fit.
If he’s that good I’d be pretty disappointed if we trade down for the chance the hawks may have a shocka next season
 

Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
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If he’s that good I’d be pretty disappointed if we trade down for the chance the hawks may have a shocka next season
Looking at the Hawks trajectory this season, and comparing it to the Crows trajectory last year, it doesn't paint a great picture for their 2021 campaign.

Crows 2019 Season: Lost 7 of 9 to finish season, 2nd oldest list in comp, coach under pressure, intense media scrutiny, pending list cull.
Hawks 2020 Season: Lost 11 of 12 to finish season (so far), 3rd oldest list in the comp, coach under pressure, intense media scrutiny, pending list cull.

If we had a shot at their 2021 pick I would be all over it. TBH, I'd even be willing to pay overs for it!
 

DJ75

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A question for those who know how it works - Port go in to the draft at this stage with a deficit of over 100 points. Is there a pick at which we could bid on Lachie Jones that would make it impossible for them to match?
I.e. if we bid at pick 1 could they match? Pick 2? Pick 5 (after a pick swap maybe)? The GWS pick? Is there a tipping point?
 

Murray2503

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May 10, 2016
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What are the mathematical statistics for % that will allow North to get the wooden spoon of we both lose?
Depends how much we lose by. We will likely finish around 65.5% (843 for, 1286 against) with a 80 to 50 scoreline resulting in a 30 point loss which is a likely score based off both teams averages. For North to get below 65.5% they will need to lose by a considerable margin. Really comes down to how much they score. If they try they will likely score anywhere from 30-45 points for the match based off their previous matches. They currently sit at 824 points for. Let's say they score 40. That would put them on 864. Therefore the magic number would be 1318 against to hit 65.5%. They currently sit at 1156 against. Therefore they would need 162 kicked against them resulting in a 122point loss if they scored 40. A very unlikely result and on the national stage I doubt they would go down this path. If they do they would be investigated and lose the pick most likely anyway. So to answer your question they would need to lose by roughly 120. The thing working in our favour is the shortened quarters and it's a night game at Gold coast which always has a lot of dew resulting in lower scores due to fumbles. If it was a day game we may be in trouble.
 
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GROTTO

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Based on previous drafts whatever we think might happen will be nowhere near it especially with how active we've been with pick swaps since Binuk started with us.
Agree the AFC is a conservative Club almost guaranteed most of the pick swaps wont happen. Our neighbours would do it though.

I still see us bidding on JUH though.
 

Murray2503

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Based on previous drafts whatever we think might happen will be nowhere near it especially with how active we've been with pick swaps since Binuk started with us.
Port will trade out players such as Wines to make sure that doesn't happen but we could majorly stuff them up.
 
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