Resource 2020 Draft Watch (picks 1, 9, 20, 30, 45, 50, 60, 74) - updated R17 15/9/20

Remove this Banner Ad

Status
Not open for further replies.

Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 28, 2016
6,417
10,744
AFL Club
Adelaide
Agree the AFC is a conservative Club almost guaranteed most of the pick swaps wont happen. Our neighbours would do it though.

I still see us bidding on JUH though.
A small part of me would be extremely curious to see a team in Adelaide's position pull zero punches and make a complete mockery of the AFL FA and its wildly uneven NGA system's.

For Example;
Pick 1: Adelaide Bids on JUH: Dogs Match: Wipes out Dog's from the rest of the draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 2: Adelaide Bids on Braeden Campbell: Swans Match: Wipes out Sydney from rest of draft
Pick 3: Adelaide Bids on Lachlan Jones: Port Matches: Wipes out Port from rest of draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 4: Adelaide trades pick 4 and Atkins compo to Hawthorn for Pick 7 and 2021 1st rounder: Hawthorn Select Logan McDonald
Pick 5: Adelaide Select Elijah Hollands with Brad Crouch Compo Pick
Pick 6: North Melbourne Select Will Phillips
Pick 7: Adelaide trade pick 7 and WB 2nd rounder to GCS for Pick 9 and 2021 1st Round pick: GCS Select DGB
Pick 8: SYD selection Wiped Out: Essendon Select Tanner Bruhn
Pick 9: Adelaide Select Riley Thilthorpe

Don't take the trades/selections as gospel, its just to highlight what theoretically could be done if we set our mind to screwing over the AFL and teams around us this year and next.

Pretty sure the AFL would kick us out of the league if we dared pull a stunt like that. But hey, there's nothing in the rulebook that says we couldn't right?
 
Last edited:

DJ75

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 4, 2004
7,311
12,026
on planet Crow
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
36ers
A small part of me would be extremely curious to see a team in Adelaide's position pull zero punches and make a complete mockery of the AFL FA and its wildly uneven NGA system.

For Example;
Pick 1: Adelaide Bids on JUH: Dogs Match: Wipes out Dog's from the rest of the draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 2: Adelaide Bids on Braeden Campbell: Swans Match: Wipes out Sydney from rest of draft
Pick 3: Adelaide Bids on Lachlan Jones: Port Matches: Wipes out Port from rest of draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 4: Adelaide trades pick 4 and Atkins compo to Hawthorn for Pick 7 and 2021 1st rounder: Hawthorn Select Logan McDonald
Pick 5: Adelaide Select Elijah Hollands with Brad Crouch Compo Pick
Pick 6: North Melbourne Select Will Phillips
Pick 7: Adelaide trade pick 7 and WB 2nd rounder to GCS for Pick 9 and 2021 1st Round pick: GCS Select DGB
Pick 8: SYD selection Wiped Out: Essendon Select Tanner Bruhn
Pick 9: Adelaide Select Riley Thilthorpe

Don't take the trades as gospel, its just to highlight what theoretically could be done if we set our mind to screwing over the AFL and teams around us this year and next.

Pretty sure the AFL would kick us out of the league if we dared pull a stunt like that. But hey, there's nothing in the rulebook that says we couldn't right?
It's...brave! Whilst obviously there are some elements we could pick apart - Port probably don't match pick 3 or what if North pick Thilthorpe etc...? BUT, I really do like the thinking. This is what we should be looking to do. We would be maximising our draft hand in both this years draft and in next years. A lot of Crows fans would probably have a melt down and not understand it, but it would be good business.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Draft Bored

Premiership Player
Apr 12, 2012
4,023
6,455
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Ricciardo, Red Sox
You could be right though, might be too expensive for a club rebuilding. Sydney may be a better fit.
Sydney will want to trade up assuming they finish below the Hawks. They'll want the pick before Campbell.

They really need to lose by 40 points and hope Hawks beat GC this weekend.
 

Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 28, 2016
6,417
10,744
AFL Club
Adelaide
It's...brave! Whilst obviously there are some elements we could pick apart - Port probably don't match pick 3 or what if North pick Thilthorpe etc...? BUT, I really do like the thinking. This is what we should be looking to do. We would be maximising our draft hand in both this years draft and in next years. A lot of Crows fans would probably have a melt down and not understand it, but it would be good business.
Oh yeah, it would be super easy to pull apart, but it’s really just a reflection of the killer mindset we have the opportunity to go into this draft with.

No team in history has ever been able to make a play like that. We potentially do!

EDIT: Imagine being on the clock 7 times in the first 9 picks. And still have the GWS pick and our 2nd rounder coming
 
Last edited:

Golumless

I'm kind of a big deal on the east side
Jul 12, 2013
29,146
34,467
Wherever the ESH clubrooms are
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Newcastle, Rockies, Oceanics
Agree the AFC is a conservative Club almost guaranteed most of the pick swaps wont happen. Our neighbours would do it though.

I still see us bidding on JUH though.
You'd be hard pressed to find a club who has loved pick swaps for future picks as much as we have. We certainly haven't been conservative in that regard.
 

CROUCH #2

Team Captain
Oct 21, 2012
311
120
AFL Club
Adelaide
Depends how much we lose by. We will likely finish around 65.5% (843 for, 1286 against) with a 80 to 50 scoreline resulting in a 30 point loss which is a likely score based off both teams averages. For North to get below 65.5% they will need to lose by a considerable margin. Really comes down to how much they score. If they try they will likely score anywhere from 30-45 points for the match based off their previous matches. They currently sit at 824 points for. Let's say they score 40. That would put them on 864. Therefore the magic number would be 1318 against to hit 65.5%. They currently sit at 1156 against. Therefore they would need 162 kicked against them resulting in a 122point loss if they scored 40. A very unlikely result and on the national stage I doubt they would go down this path. If they do they would be investigated and lose the pick most likely anyway. So to answer your question they would need to lose by roughly 120. The thing working in our favour is the shortened quarters and it's a night game at Gold coast which always has a lot of dew resulting in lower scores due to fumbles. If it was a day game we may be in trouble.
Epic responce. Thanks
 

GROTTO

Hall of Famer
Jul 5, 2013
45,682
52,514
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
A small part of me would be extremely curious to see a team in Adelaide's position pull zero punches and make a complete mockery of the AFL FA and its wildly uneven NGA system.

For Example;
Pick 1: Adelaide Bids on JUH: Dogs Match: Wipes out Dog's from the rest of the draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 2: Adelaide Bids on Braeden Campbell: Swans Match: Wipes out Sydney from rest of draft
Pick 3: Adelaide Bids on Lachlan Jones: Port Matches: Wipes out Port from rest of draft (+ 2021 draft deficit?)
Pick 4: Adelaide trades pick 4 and Atkins compo to Hawthorn for Pick 7 and 2021 1st rounder: Hawthorn Select Logan McDonald
Pick 5: Adelaide Select Elijah Hollands with Brad Crouch Compo Pick
Pick 6: North Melbourne Select Will Phillips
Pick 7: Adelaide trade pick 7 and WB 2nd rounder to GCS for Pick 9 and 2021 1st Round pick: GCS Select DGB
Pick 8: SYD selection Wiped Out: Essendon Select Tanner Bruhn
Pick 9: Adelaide Select Riley Thilthorpe

Don't take the trades as gospel, its just to highlight what theoretically could be done if we set our mind to screwing over the AFL and teams around us this year and next.

Pretty sure the AFL would kick us out of the league if we dared pull a stunt like that. But hey, there's nothing in the rulebook that says we couldn't right?
As long as the player they select is at par or better than the current player in the draft.

Then yes. F**k them, F**k all of them.
 

Rory Walkerfield

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 6, 2012
8,880
15,893
AFL Club
Adelaide
So there’s the unwritten rule on here that if we rate two players equally then you go the local option.

Is there a similar unwritten rule that if you rate two players equally and one of them is a F/S or NGA player then you put the bid in first? It seems to have been Adelaide’s MO in the past.
 

MarcusP2

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 21, 2009
8,895
6,251
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Zona Cardinals, Yankees
As long as the player they select is at par or better than the current player in the draft.

Then yes. F**k them, F**k all of them.
So in this situation we end up with Pick 5, Pick 9, and ours, Hawks, and Suns first round pick next year?
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

Deaneus!

You wouldn’t believe me if I told you!!!
Nov 24, 2007
22,829
45,940
Memorial H
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
#BLM
Oh yeah, it would be super easy to pull apart, but it’s really just a reflection of the killer mindset we have the opportunity to go into this draft with.

No team in history has ever been able to make a play like that. We potentially do!

EDIT: Imagine being on the clock 7 times in the first 9 picks. And still have another pick coming
 

Crows I Am

Club Legend
Jul 12, 2006
1,530
1,903
Adelaide S.A
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
North Adelaide
Depends how much we lose by. We will likely finish around 65.5% (843 for, 1286 against) with a 80 to 50 scoreline resulting in a 30 point loss which is a likely score based off both teams averages. For North to get below 65.5% they will need to lose by a considerable margin. Really comes down to how much they score. If they try they will likely score anywhere from 30-45 points for the match based off their previous matches. They currently sit at 824 points for. Let's say they score 40. That would put them on 864. Therefore the magic number would be 1318 against to hit 65.5%. They currently sit at 1156 against. Therefore they would need 162 kicked against them resulting in a 122point loss if they scored 40. A very unlikely result and on the national stage I doubt they would go down this path. If they do they would be investigated and lose the pick most likely anyway. So to answer your question they would need to lose by roughly 120. The thing working in our favour is the shortened quarters and it's a night game at Gold coast which always has a lot of dew resulting in lower scores due to fumbles. If it was a day game we may be in trouble.
That 69 point win over us earlier in the season may be the reason why they end up missing pick 1.
 

Mego Red

The Artist Formerly Known As Kristof
Oct 3, 2003
21,191
22,262
The East Coast
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Soft spot for Brisbane
Agree the AFC is a conservative Club almost guaranteed most of the pick swaps wont happen. Our neighbours would do it though.

I still see us bidding on JUH though.

We do pick swaps all the time, and nearly always they've been a smart decision.
 

Betts are off

Norm Smith Medallist
Sep 28, 2016
6,417
10,744
AFL Club
Adelaide
So in this situation we end up with Pick 5, Pick 9, and ours, Hawks, and Suns first round pick next year?
Yeah more or less.

Plus with the added benefit of sliding the later picks forward from gutting the drafts of 3 teams this year, and unless i'm mistaken (which is highly likely) also putting the WB and Port into a draft deficit for 2021 (which could be end up being very handy in 12 months time, particularly with Port).
 

WeedsMullet84

Team Captain
Oct 31, 2018
518
738
AFL Club
Adelaide
Agree the AFC is a conservative Club almost guaranteed most of the pick swaps wont happen. Our neighbours would do it though.

I still see us bidding on JUH though.
You reckon? I've always thought the AFC have been one of the more adventurous teams at the trade table, particularly since the trading of future picks came into play.

My gut feeling so far is that we'll bid JUH at pick 1 and keep WB honest (i know there's no history for clubs doing that, but i also don't think there's been history of the best player in the draft being NGA/FS under the new rules). They don't have any currency to move ahead of a bid, so they'll likely trade their 1st rd out ahead of the draft anyway, so if we rate him at Pick 1 we should just bid on him.

There's simply too many scenarios to play out beyond pick 1 until we know whether we get brad crouch/atkins comp etc etc. Will be keen to take a closer look at any analysis on every clubs draft needs in the top 10/20
 

Mutineer

Premium Platinum
Aug 9, 2019
9,552
16,857
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
The mighty Panthers, GWV Rebels, Be
You reckon? I've always thought the AFC have been one of the more adventurous teams at the trade table, particularly since the trading of future picks came into play.

My gut feeling so far is that we'll bid JUH at pick 1 and keep WB honest (i know there's no history for clubs doing that, but i also don't think there's been history of the best player in the draft being NGA/FS under the new rules). They don't have any currency to move ahead of a bid, so they'll likely trade their 1st rd out ahead of the draft anyway, so if we rate him at Pick 1 we should just bid on him.

There's simply too many scenarios to play out beyond pick 1 until we know whether we get brad crouch/atkins comp etc etc. Will be keen to take a closer look at any analysis on every clubs draft needs in the top 10/20
I know peoplle think clubs draft for needs and they certainly do, but not generally with their 1st round picks, in almost all cases they'll go best available irrespective of the position they play....all well and good if the player they rate top of their list is a specific need but it's certainly not usually the defining reason.
 

crow2crow

All Australian
Sep 13, 2020
757
389
AFL Club
Adelaide
Trading in players, while a solid option for the crows midfield (later picks for Hately et al), is not relevant when they are in contract in year 2 of a 4 year rebuild. Rankine and Luko signed contracts until the end of 2021, I'd be open to trading a future (2022 first) when they are out of contract, but we need to draft this year and next.
agree it’s the more likely your scenario my only worry is when are we going to have pick 2 again? i’m more bullish on next year than the melbourne media and expect a strongish return next year (not finals but 8 - 10 wins at least out of 22). we will end up with pick 9 or something that will never dislodge rankine. luko i would love too but he can wait.
 

Mutineer

Premium Platinum
Aug 9, 2019
9,552
16,857
Victorian Central Highlands
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
The mighty Panthers, GWV Rebels, Be
agree it’s the more likely your scenario my only worry is when are we going to have pick 2 again? i’m more bullish on next year than the melbourne media and expect a strongish return next year (not finals but 8 - 10 wins at least out of 22). we will end up with pick 9 or something that will never dislodge rankine. luko i would love too but he can wait.
I just wish people would get this unhealthy infatuation with Izak Rankine out of their heads....at no stage has he even given a slither of evidence that he's unhappy at the GCS, in fact it's completely the opposite in reality.

All well and good if he signals he wants to return to SA then we go hard if the club shares the views of some on this board...Until then...
 

WeedsMullet84

Team Captain
Oct 31, 2018
518
738
AFL Club
Adelaide
I know peoplle think clubs draft for needs and they certainly do, but not generally with their 1st round picks, in almost all cases they'll go best available irrespective of the position they play....all well and good if the player they rate top of their list is a specific need but it's certainly not usually the defining reason.
Yeah absolutely, but i think the top 5/6 are fairly close together in terms of quality after JUH, so although the default position is to pick up the best available, what does the club 'need' if there's a pick of a bunch in the same range. Are teams more/less likely to simply pick best available with reduced list sizes?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Top Bottom