List Mgmt. 2020 Draft Watch

RUNVS

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NAB League players attended a webcast tonight, left with the impression that season looks very unlikely to start.
The 2020 draft is going to feel like the drafts of the early 90's in terms of how much teams know about the players they are drafting. There are going to be a lot of failures in the first round in 2020, and there are going to be a lot of amazing players taken with bad picks in the 2020 draft as well.
 

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LukeParkerno1

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The 2020 draft is going to feel like the drafts of the early 90's in terms of how much teams know about the players they are drafting. There are going to be a lot of failures in the first round in 2020, and there are going to be a lot of amazing players taken with bad picks in the 2020 draft as well.
In general whilst there are some very rare exceptions, recruiters will have a good idea anyway. Plus luckily a lot of the top end are Academy/FS/NGA tied.
 

RUNVS

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In general whilst there are some very rare exceptions, recruiters will have a good idea anyway. Plus luckily a lot of the top end are Academy/FS/NGA tied.
Not entirely sure about that.


Anderson - Pick 2
Jackson - Pick 3
Jeka - Pick 9 Rookie Draft
Rowell - Pick 1
Serrong - Pick 8
Sharp - Pick 27
Taheny - Pick 50
Williams - Pick 23
Worrell - Pick 28
Young - Pick 7

So a year out, Twomey did predict 5 top 10 players, but the other 5, while all drafted all went considerably later than he expected, especially Jeka who was only picked up in the rookie draft. A 50% strike rate isn't brilliant.
 

caesar88

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Not entirely sure about that.


Anderson - Pick 2
Jackson - Pick 3
Jeka - Pick 9 Rookie Draft
Rowell - Pick 1
Serrong - Pick 8
Sharp - Pick 27
Taheny - Pick 50
Williams - Pick 23
Worrell - Pick 28
Young - Pick 7

So a year out, Twomey did predict 5 top 10 players, but the other 5, while all drafted all went considerably later than he expected, especially Jeka who was only picked up in the rookie draft. A 50% strike rate isn't brilliant.
Twomey is not a recruiter though. He's a reporter. He only reports what he hears from the recruiters, who probably have a myriad of options at that point. He could interview 18 different recruiters who all have an eye on Jeka in April, and he then reports him as a prospect to watch. Doesn't mean that by November, any of those 18 recruiters will ultimately settle on Jeka.

In any case, Hawthorn are onto one there. He is a real talent.
 

LukeParkerno1

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This year they have so many players tied to clubs so they are fortunate they don’t need the u-8’s as much. A lot of clubs like us are really just taking dartboard late picks
 

kickthething

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you are kidding, right?
This year they have so many players tied to clubs so they are fortunate they don’t need the u-8’s as much. A lot of clubs like us are really just taking dartboard late picks
Just because they are tied to clubs doesn’t make them top picks......players tied to clubs in a year like this might prove to the the biggest bombs. Even those in metro hubs are normally working on areas of their game to gain selection which they cannot do now... RUNVS made a great point in a different thread.....look for a high number of u19 selections from last year that missed out. They may prove to be the big winners this year.
 

LukeParkerno1

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Just because they are tied to clubs doesn’t make them top picks......players tied to clubs in a year like this might prove to the the biggest bombs. Even those in metro hubs are normally working on areas of their game to gain selection which they cannot do now... RUNVS made a great point in a different thread.....look for a high number of u19 selections from last year that missed out. They may prove to be the big winners this year.
That maybe so but in this current climate this is fine. Not a big deal for one year. These recruiters would have pages upon pages of information on players right now.
 

kickthething

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you are kidding, right?
We will disagree ... if it’s no big deal... why even bother at all...I think your view is a little too simplistic. It’s a big deal... when you look at the investment that goes into the top age year it’s a very big deal... it’s done for a reason, to not have it this year is a big big deal.
 

LukeParkerno1

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We will disagree ... if it’s no big deal... why even bother at all...I think your view is a little too simplistic. It’s a big deal... when you look at the investment that goes into the top age year it’s a very big deal... it’s done for a reason, to not have it this year is a big big deal.
It's isn't ideal and in a lovely beautiful world with no virus I'd love nothing more than the juniors to play, I mean I love following the draft religiously. However for one year and that's all it is, it's a small disruption. The recruiters will find other ways to "test" these players. They would also have pages upon pages on every player right now. It's not ideal, but they will manage fine.
 

kickthething

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you are kidding, right?
It's isn't ideal and in a lovely beautiful world with no virus I'd love nothing more than the juniors to play, I mean I love following the draft religiously. However for one year and that's all it is, it's a small disruption. The recruiters will find other ways to "test" these players. They would also have pages upon pages on every player right now. It's not ideal, but they will manage fine.
How, maybe like to give them a selection of toys and ask which one they prefer and why??!! No one is allowed to approach any of the players. The premise is they are selecting young players on 16 and 17 yo form and that is just fine. You have surely watched enough junior football to realise that that is not fine. The other issue being raised at the moment is that in drafting 18 year olds, the support systems in place at clubs are no longer there as a result of soft cap cuts. Clubs are not as confident now in being able to provide the resource to support these kids as they move into AFL, even more so now given they will need to support a batch of kids coming into the system with no football in 12 months. There is a strong push for a draft deferral which will also save the AFL dollars and provide those eventually drafted the best environment to enter the AFL. Right now if it goes ahead the reality is with the lack of resources at clubland these kids may well be being set up to fail. It is a fascinating scenario where there are so many eventualities with all of this. It will be very interesting to see how it all evolves.
 

Bear31

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How, maybe like to give them a selection of toys and ask which one they prefer and why??!! No one is allowed to approach any of the players. The premise is they are selecting young players on 16 and 17 yo form and that is just fine. You have surely watched enough junior football to realise that that is not fine. The other issue being raised at the moment is that in drafting 18 year olds, the support systems in place at clubs are no longer there as a result of soft cap cuts. Clubs are not as confident now in being able to provide the resource to support these kids as they move into AFL, even more so now given they will need to support a batch of kids coming into the system with no football in 12 months. There is a strong push for a draft deferral which will also save the AFL dollars and provide those eventually drafted the best environment to enter the AFL. Right now if it goes ahead the reality is with the lack of resources at clubland these kids may well be being set up to fail. It is a fascinating scenario where there are so many eventualities with all of this. It will be very interesting to see how it all evolves.
I dont want a draft deferral. I want us to pick up the likely academy prospects and any other high picks we can sandwich before them. Call me one eyed. I accept any criticism.
 

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LukeParkerno1

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How, maybe like to give them a selection of toys and ask which one they prefer and why??!! No one is allowed to approach any of the players. The premise is they are selecting young players on 16 and 17 yo form and that is just fine. You have surely watched enough junior football to realise that that is not fine. The other issue being raised at the moment is that in drafting 18 year olds, the support systems in place at clubs are no longer there as a result of soft cap cuts. Clubs are not as confident now in being able to provide the resource to support these kids as they move into AFL, even more so now given they will need to support a batch of kids coming into the system with no football in 12 months. There is a strong push for a draft deferral which will also save the AFL dollars and provide those eventually drafted the best environment to enter the AFL. Right now if it goes ahead the reality is with the lack of resources at clubland these kids may well be being set up to fail. It is a fascinating scenario where there are so many eventualities with all of this. It will be very interesting to see how it all evolves.
Good luck with all relevant parties agreeing to defer a whole year. Completely unfair to players who would obviously get drafted early. It makes next draft compromises as well...clubs have prepared trading away first rounders this year for a compromised draft. You are screwing those teams.
 

caesar88

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I dont want a draft deferral. I want us to pick up the likely academy prospects and any other high picks we can sandwich before them. Call me one eyed. I accept any criticism.
I was in favour of us going ham on trading this year, since I figured we'd have the likely picks to work with (don't expect us finishing higher than 10th), and we'd already have two highly rated kids in Campbell and Gulden no matter what. It fit in line with my 'enter contention 2021' plan to start bringing in some established talent to plug whatever holes we may have.

But this season going in a very unprecedented direction has changed that. I can't see the trade period really being a thing at all. Things are going to be uncertain for players and I don't expect much player movement because of it, so the choice may be taken out of our hands, and we may have to load up at the draft again.
 

Bear31

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I was in favour of us going ham on trading this year, since I figured we'd have the likely picks to work with (don't expect us finishing higher than 10th), and we'd already have two highly rated kids in Campbell and Gulden no matter what. It fit in line with my 'enter contention 2021' plan to start bringing in some established talent to plug whatever holes we may have.

But this season going in a very unprecedented direction has changed that. I can't see the trade period really being a thing at all. Things are going to be uncertain for players and I don't expect much player movement because of it, so the choice may be taken out of our hands, and we may have to load up at the draft again.
I cant see a draft deferral happening. yeas list sizes may be reduced. but the AFL like to saturate the media for 12 months. no draft no media. no way
 

kickthething

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you are kidding, right?
I cant see a draft deferral happening. yeas list sizes may be reduced. but the AFL like to saturate the media for 12 months. no draft no media. no way
The AFL will generate media either way. The potential deferral happens if the draft age rises to 19. In effect, no one is compromised from a deferral perspective (or cancelling the 2020 drafting altogether). The Academy prospects we want to bring in will be the same prospects in 12 months time if their development is still heading the right way. The age rising is controversial however as we all know it has its supporters and it has advantages for the clubs, giving them 12 months to set up structures under the new soft cap...as well as having draftees 12 months more mature to help them adjust in an environment with reduced support.
 

briztoon

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Hope you guys don’t mind a couple of observations.
Just because they are tied to clubs doesn’t make them top picks......players tied to clubs in a year like this might prove to the the biggest bombs. Even those in metro hubs are normally working on areas of their game to gain selection which they cannot do now... RUNVS made a great point in a different thread.....look for a high number of u19 selections from last year that missed out. They may prove to be the big winners this year.
Last year saw the fewest players selected in recent years. Even in the rookie draft, many clubs re-rookied their own delisted players, or drafted delisted players from other clubs.

I don’t believe we’d see more than 3 or 4 19 year olds who were unlucky last year, drafted this year.

How, maybe like to give them a selection of toys and ask which one they prefer and why??!! No one is allowed to approach any of the players. The premise is they are selecting young players on 16 and 17 yo form and that is just fine. You have surely watched enough junior football to realise that that is not fine. The other issue being raised at the moment is that in drafting 18 year olds, the support systems in place at clubs are no longer there as a result of soft cap cuts. Clubs are not as confident now in being able to provide the resource to support these kids as they move into AFL, even more so now given they will need to support a batch of kids coming into the system with no football in 12 months. There is a strong push for a draft deferral which will also save the AFL dollars and provide those eventually drafted the best environment to enter the AFL. Right now if it goes ahead the reality is with the lack of resources at clubland these kids may well be being set up to fail. It is a fascinating scenario where there are so many eventualities with all of this. It will be very interesting to see how it all evolves.
Recruiters are still talking to kids at the moment.


The AFL will generate media either way. The potential deferral happens if the draft age rises to 19. In effect, no one is compromised from a deferral perspective (or cancelling the 2020 drafting altogether). The Academy prospects we want to bring in will be the same prospects in 12 months time if their development is still heading the right way. The age rising is controversial however as we all know it has its supporters and it has advantages for the clubs, giving them 12 months to set up structures under the new soft cap...as well as having draftees 12 months more mature to help them adjust in an environment with reduced support.
From what I’ve heard and read, it looks like the NAB League will go to a U19’s competition next year, but the draft age will remain 18.


If lists are cut, that will naturally shorten the draft. Which will see more 19 year olds drafted the year after, which will see fewer 18 year olds drafted again.

The best U18’s will be drafted each year, while the late developers will be drafted as 19 year olds, or mature agers.

Basically fewer speculative players will be drafted as 18 year olds, the draft depth will increase because of the top 19 year olds, especially in the later part of the first round, which will advantage finals teams.
 

caesar88

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Hope you guys don’t mind a couple of observations.

Last year saw the fewest players selected in recent years. Even in the rookie draft, many clubs re-rookied their own delisted players, or drafted delisted players from other clubs.

I don’t believe we’d see more than 3 or 4 19 year olds who were unlucky last year, drafted this year.


Recruiters are still talking to kids at the moment.



From what I’ve heard and read, it looks like the NAB League will go to a U19’s competition next year, but the draft age will remain 18.


If lists are cut, that will naturally shorten the draft. Which will see more 19 year olds drafted the year after, which will see fewer 18 year olds drafted again.

The best U18’s will be drafted each year, while the late developers will be drafted as 19 year olds, or mature agers.

Basically fewer speculative players will be drafted as 18 year olds, the draft depth will increase because of the top 19 year olds, especially in the later part of the first round, which will advantage finals teams.
Think this is the most reasonable outcome the AFL can hope for if true. Kind of lends itself to both sides of the draft age debate. Highly talented 18 year olds can still be drafted and play senior footy as 18 year olds, while clubs can still take less-speculative prospects once they're 19.
 

LukeParkerno1

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Think this is the most reasonable outcome the AFL can hope for if true. Kind of lends itself to both sides of the draft age debate. Highly talented 18 year olds can still be drafted and play senior footy as 18 year olds, while clubs can still take less-speculative prospects once they're 19.
Makes more sense than raising the age when some 18 year olds like Rowell, etc are ready.
 

SeanM

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From what I’ve heard and read, it looks like the NAB League will go to a U19’s competition next year, but the draft age will remain 18.


If lists are cut, that will naturally shorten the draft. Which will see more 19 year olds drafted the year after, which will see fewer 18 year olds drafted again.

The best U18’s will be drafted each year, while the late developers will be drafted as 19 year olds, or mature agers.

Basically fewer speculative players will be drafted as 18 year olds, the draft depth will increase because of the top 19 year olds, especially in the later part of the first round, which will advantage finals teams.
That could be a good thing. If there is a greater mix of U18 and U19 players in the NAB league. The U19 players get another year to showcase themselves in the main youth competition. And everything does not hinge on a player's U18 year.

It is still hard to get drafted. But there might be a trend towards clubs taking a longer look at U19s.
 

briztoon

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There are many 18 year olds who have finished school before their draft year. Last year all the kids the Lions drafted had finished school the year before, and were working or studying part time, and playing club footy while waiting for the draft.
 

briztoon

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That could be a good thing. If there is a greater mix of U18 and U19 players in the NAB league. The U19 players get another year to showcase themselves in the main youth competition. And everything does not hinge on a player's U18 year.

It is still hard to get drafted. But there might be a trend towards clubs taking a longer look at U19s.
The top KPP prospects will get drafted as 18 year olds. But we’ll probably see 18 year olds who would normally be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round skipped over, to go back to play as 19 year olds.

The same will happen with kids who are viewed as projects and needing more development.

Similarly kids like Worpel who was skipped over early in his draft year, will now likely get drafted in the second round.

With the draft being deeper in talent through the second round, we might see more trading up and back as teams try draft for need more often.
 

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