Your logic seems sound, I was only commenting on the O'Meara once in a lifetime pick swapOK , this is my logic from a Cats perspective for how i would evaluate the value of our future first rounder.
a) Where will Saints finish 2021 , do I gamble on it , or do I assume for the sake of the trade that it might be high up. So anything better than a late first rounder could be a bad deal for the Cats.
b) You are Geelong , do you prefer your pick this year or do you prefer to put back your stock of young players for a year in the future?
Most teams would prefer a pick this year to next year , so why do it ? OK so on top of point a) you need to pay overs to twist their arm.
That's my logic for an valuing a trade of our next years first. It is not worth pick 11 or 14 .
So to get 11 or 14 we'd need to include some pretty good picks, which we don't have, or a very talented young player, which we wouldn't want to.