2020 FA, Draft and Trade HYPOTHETICAL thread...now with new DFA speculation!

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Rocket72 said:
If we rate him as lowly as a third rounder, not sure we will bother with a complex maneuver.
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We do not rate him that low, it is just that we have 3 3rd rounders, if we are only taking 3 picks, if bid comes before 24 probably 30-70 chance, trade pick 24 out, get 20% discount, use one of 3rd rounders on Downie, use another 3rd rounder to pick a speculative which 50% chance is a bust and perhaps waste the other 3rd rounder. I think Downer is someone we need, he is said to be damaging 55m kick, perhaps replacing smith, link breaking speed. The other alternative is to trade pick 4, 24, at least one of our 3rd rounders for 2 or 3 picks well before Downie pick, so pick up 2 or 3 good players plus Downie. That is where GWS come to mind and they have heaps of picks, more than they can use.

If 70% chance bid on downie comes after our 2nd round, then we have got a player at pick 4, pick 24 and Downie who is worth pick 24 himself and use one or more of 3rd rounders on him. That I guess would be best outcome if not involve dealing with another club.
 
Howe Amazing said:
This is why you would consider picks 10, 13 and 15 for 4, if nailed makes us better right away
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Someone else was saying if the player we want at pick 4 is not available we would trade for Picks 10,13 & 20 instead of 10,13,15. If that were the case we would probably want their pick 29 give them 45. If pick up 4 players in top 30 plus Downie and if at least 4 of them turned into good players then have done very well. It is polar opposite of pick 4 best available, trade 2nd rounder out, Downie and perhaps a speculative. I read somewhere that out of top 30 players some 8-9 players still without contract for last year, as we know even top 10 can fail or only ever become B grade rather than A grade players.
 
sohsam said:
Someone else was saying if the player we want at pick 4 is not available we would trade for Picks 10,13 & 20 instead of 10,13,15. If that were the case we would probably want their pick 29 give them 45. If pick up 4 players in top 30 plus Downie and if at least 4 of them turned into good players then have done very well. It is polar opposite of pick 4 best available, trade 2nd rounder out, Downie and perhaps a speculative. I read somewhere that out of top 30 players some 8-9 players still without contract for last year, as we know even top 10 can fail or only ever become B grade rather than A grade players.
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i think if the players we want arent there at 4, then we would trade 4 and 24 for 10, 13, 20 to get ahead of the Downie bid.... if we can pick up 3 players instead of 1 before Downie, then thats the play and im assuming if they do make the trade, maybe if Downie is bid on before 20 we might be willing to let him go? idk? that would be a decision from the recruiting team based on what talent is possibly available at our next pick and if we rate them higher for our needs?, we could also trade the picks in 40's for a pick in the 30's (a team wanting points to match a bid like Fremantle - Western or Adelaide - Edwards?) or for next years 2nd/3rd rd pick? idk, just spit balling.

or we could keep 4 and 24 hoping 24 is before the Downie bid and maybe upgrade the picks in the 40's for a top 30 pick, the goal should be get as many top 25 picks as possible OR nail pick 4 and hope Downie doesnt get bid before our 2nd pick in the late 20's after bids ect
 
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Davo-27 said:
i think if the players we want arent there at 4, then we would trade 4 and 24 for 10, 13, 20 to get ahead of the Downie bid.... if we can pick up 3 players instead of 1 before Downie, then thats the play and im assuming if they do make the trade, maybe if Downie is bid on before 20 we might be willing to let him go? idk? that would be a decision from the recruiting team based on what talent is possibly available at our next pick and if we rate them higher for our needs?, we could also trade the picks in 40's for a pick in the 30's (a team wanting points to match a bid like Fremantle - Western or Adelaide - Edwards?) or for next years 2nd/3rd rd pick? idk, just spit balling.

or we could keep 4 and 24 hoping 24 is before the Downie bid and maybe upgrade the picks in the 40's for a top 30 pick, the goal should be get as many top 25 picks as possible OR nail pick 4 and hope Downie doesnt get bid before our 2nd pick in the late 20's after bids ect
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I cannot imagine anyone making bid on Downie before pick 30, if so they are just being difficult. I think last year it was almost embarrassing how Finn did not get bid on much earlier. It also depends how many picks we are using. I am sure club will try to get as high picks as possible from GWS, Picks 10,13&15 would be better. Otherwise if Picks 10,13,20 & 29. It will use pick 29 on Downie. If it gets picks 10,13&15, then Downie bid on pick 45/46, trade out 46 for next yr. If only using 4 picks and getting, 10,13,20&29 not sure whether GWS would want our 3 3rd rounders. I know Collingwood wants to move out its first rounder next year and wants points, but doubt how it will help them, unless approach 3 clubs who needs points this year, give them those 3rd rounders this year for next year's 3rd rounders, then package next year's 3 x 3rd rounders for their first as example or throw something additional, especially if it is waste for us not to use them.
 
RoughandLove said:
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.

Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.

Firm no for me.

No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.


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Would mean they're after Thilthorpe, right?
 
RoughandLove said:
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.

Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.

Firm no for me.

No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.


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Adelaide is obviously keen for 2021 firsts in a reputedly strong draft. This is not much of a deal for us however as the pundits seem to think there is not much difference in talent between 2020 top 5. Different positions similar talent.
Better for us to keep our firsts in both drafts.
 

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RoughandLove said:
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.

Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.

Firm no for me.

No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.


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It would have to be 1 and 9 for 4 and future first. Otherwise it just doesn’t add up to close to value.
 
Brishawk said:
It would have to be 1 and 9 for 4 and future first. Otherwise it just doesn’t add up to close to value.
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That I would do and I’d throw in 24 as it’s unlikely to be much value to us but useful to them. I’d be nervous about not entering 2021 with a first rounder though as I’m not expecting much from next year. And take McDonald at pick 1 after bidding on JUH.
 
I think that given the current state of our list (which appears to be at a crossroads, however not as bad as some believe) and the state of this year's draft that it actually makes sense to trade out early in exchange for multiple selections and back our recruitment team in fully.

Here's my ideal scenario, whether or not it eventuates is a different story entirely.

Greater Western Sydney Trade

Pick 10 (GWS), Pick 13 (GCS), Pick 15 (WCE), Pick 20 (GEE) in exchange for Pick 4 (HAW)

Refer to a recent previous example of the Lachie Ash acquisition which involved GWS handing over all of:

Pick 9 (GWS 2020), Pick 12 (ESS 2019) and Pick 18 (GWS 2019) for Pick 4 (ADE 2019)

Now given the compromised state and uncertainty around this year's pool combined with the fact that the selections they'd be offering are of lower value in comparison to the above, but they'd still be receiving the exact same selection in return, then it does make sense to ensure that a hefty premium is paid (the extra selection) if we're to in fact let our highest selection in 15 years go.

If we were able to get a deal struck then hopefully we're able to end up with something along the lines of:

AFL Draft 2020 Selections

Pick 10 (GWS) - Oliver Henry - (FWD)
Pick 13 (GCS) - Nikolas Cox - (UTL)
Pick 15 (WCE) - Zach Reid - (DEF)
Pick 20 (GEE) - Jack Ginnivan - (FWD)
Pick 24 (FRE) - Eddie Ford (FWD)
Pick 45 (HAW) and Pick 46 (HAW) - Connor Downie - (MID)
Pick 49 (ESS) - Henry Walsh (RUC)

This would not only drastically improve our age demographic (which to be fair has already improved significantly over this off season anyway) but it would also address multiple areas of our list that need improvement (allowing us to recruit midfielder's next off season) and also give us a core group of youngsters to come up through the ranks together.

One could only dream that with the pieces we already have in place that we've now laid the foundations for our next dynasty.

Not long until now we find out which direction the club will be heading in anyway 😁
 
Lol first we do not have that many picks in the draft. Second we wont pick that many from this draft
 
How many are currently OOC and LOL yeah let's pick another ACL case or put all our eggs in the one basket (as much as I do rate Phillips) with a single selection and continue to have plodders (clearly we have plenty of them) just plodding around in the reserves, getting paid while contributing absolutely nothing.

While this year's selection is the highest that we've had in 15 years, our list also appears to be at that same crossroads that it was presented 15 years ago.

We need to do something because we can't just rely on a couple of selections each year to lift us back in contention.

If we could split our selection for even just 10, 13 and 15 then I'd back the club in with getting us back up and seriously contending within the next 2-3 years.
 
S Rioghal Mo Dhream said:
I think that given the current state of our list (which appears to be at a crossroads, however not as bad as some believe) and the state of this year's draft that it actually makes sense to trade out early in exchange for multiple selections and back our recruitment team in fully.

Here's my ideal scenario, whether or not it eventuates is a different story entirely.

Greater Western Sydney Trade

Pick 10 (GWS), Pick 13 (GCS), Pick 15 (WCE), Pick 20 (GEE) in exchange for Pick 4 (HAW)

Refer to a recent previous example of the Lachie Ash acquisition which involved GWS handing over all of:

Pick 9 (GWS 2020), Pick 12 (ESS 2019) and Pick 18 (GWS 2019) for Pick 4 (ADE 2019)

Now given the compromised state and uncertainty around this year's pool combined with the fact that the selections they'd be offering are of lower value in comparison to the above, but they'd still be receiving the exact same selection in return, then it does make sense to ensure that a hefty premium is paid (the extra selection) if we're to in fact let our highest selection in 15 years go.

If we were able to get a deal struck then hopefully we're able to end up with something along the lines of:

AFL Draft 2020 Selections

Pick 10 (GWS) - Oliver Henry - (FWD)
Pick 13 (GCS) - Nikolas Cox - (UTL)
Pick 15 (WCE) - Zach Reid - (DEF)
Pick 20 (GEE) - Jack Ginnivan - (FWD)
Pick 24 (FRE) - Eddie Ford (FWD)
Pick 45 (HAW) and Pick 46 (HAW) - Connor Downie - (MID)
Pick 49 (ESS) - Henry Walsh (RUC)

This would not only drastically improve our age demographic (which to be fair has already improved significantly over this off season anyway) but it would also address multiple areas of our list that need improvement (allowing us to recruit midfielder's next off season) and also give us a core group of youngsters to come up through the ranks together.

One could only dream that with the pieces we already have in place that we've now laid the foundations for our next dynasty.

Not long until now we find out which direction the club will be heading in anyway 😁
Click to expand...


If GWS were willing to hand over all four picks, it would definitely be worth a look. I like the idea, but I doubt they would offer all four.

Live trading may be the way to go. Depending who is available at our first pick, we could have offers coming in. For example, Hollands or Thilthorpe might be available and the Crows would be super keen. We could ask for 9, 22, 23 and a future 2nd or 3rd. They might be keen enough to say yes.

Then when pick 9 comes around, depending who is available, we could trade 9 and 24 to Collingwood for 14 and 16. We get two firsts, they get a pick before Reef McInnes plus points to match the bid when it comes. Win for them. We might even ask for an upgrade the Crows future pick to Collingwood's future first.

The first picks in the second round can often be traded, so 22 and 23 could be valuable. Trade one of them for a future pick. We end up with 2 firsts, an early second and Downie. Plus a stronger hand next season.

Lots of possibilities with live trading.
 
Books said:
If GWS were willing to hand over all four picks, it would definitely be worth a look. I like the idea, but I doubt they would offer all four.

Live trading may be the way to go. Depending who is available at our first pick, we could have offers coming in. For example, Hollands or Thilthorpe might be available and the Crows would be super keen. We could ask for 9, 22, 23 and a future 2nd or 3rd. They might be keen enough to say yes.

Then when pick 9 comes around, depending who is available, we could trade 9 and 24 to Collingwood for 14 and 16. We get two firsts, they get a pick before Reef McInnes plus points to match the bid when it comes. Win for them. We might even ask for an upgrade the Crows future pick to Collingwood's future first.

The first picks in the second round can often be traded, so 22 and 23 could be valuable. Trade one of them for a future pick. We end up with 2 firsts, an early second and Downie. Plus a stronger hand next season.

Lots of possibilities with live trading.
Click to expand...

Generally speaking I'd agree however GWS don't need multiple selections to use on youngsters, they need to take another elite young talent to replace Cameron with the chances of finding that at the pointy end of the draft.

Once again it'd be a similar situation to the Lachie Ash acquisition except the selections that they have at their disposal to offer aren't quite as good, which given the uncertainty around this draft does need to be taken into account - also GWS couldn't care less (which has been proven on multiple occasions) if they have a target in mind and surely it'd be tempting to take advantage of this.

I definitely agree that there's multiple scenarios (although GWS would undoubtedly be the better of them) and that live trading could be the best time to get a deal struck.

I guess the only possible downfall might be that said club's target may be gone prior to our selection and they'd back out.

Anyway regardless of what we end up doing with our selection it'll be interesting to watch - I for one will definitely be keeping the popcorn nearby and will be watching with the upmost of anticipation.

Thanks for the respectful and serious answer by the way, it was much appreciated.
 
S Rioghal Mo Dhream said:
I think that given the current state of our list (which appears to be at a crossroads, however not as bad as some believe) and the state of this year's draft that it actually makes sense to trade out early in exchange for multiple selections and back our recruitment team in fully.

Here's my ideal scenario, whether or not it eventuates is a different story entirely.

Greater Western Sydney Trade

Pick 10 (GWS), Pick 13 (GCS), Pick 15 (WCE), Pick 20 (GEE) in exchange for Pick 4 (HAW)

Refer to a recent previous example of the Lachie Ash acquisition which involved GWS handing over all of:

Pick 9 (GWS 2020), Pick 12 (ESS 2019) and Pick 18 (GWS 2019) for Pick 4 (ADE 2019)

Now given the compromised state and uncertainty around this year's pool combined with the fact that the selections they'd be offering are of lower value in comparison to the above, but they'd still be receiving the exact same selection in return, then it does make sense to ensure that a hefty premium is paid (the extra selection) if we're to in fact let our highest selection in 15 years go.

If we were able to get a deal struck then hopefully we're able to end up with something along the lines of:

AFL Draft 2020 Selections

Pick 10 (GWS) - Oliver Henry - (FWD)
Pick 13 (GCS) - Nikolas Cox - (UTL)
Pick 15 (WCE) - Zach Reid - (DEF)
Pick 20 (GEE) - Jack Ginnivan - (FWD)
Pick 24 (FRE) - Eddie Ford (FWD)
Pick 45 (HAW) and Pick 46 (HAW) - Connor Downie - (MID)
Pick 49 (ESS) - Henry Walsh (RUC)

This would not only drastically improve our age demographic (which to be fair has already improved significantly over this off season anyway) but it would also address multiple areas of our list that need improvement (allowing us to recruit midfielder's next off season) and also give us a core group of youngsters to come up through the ranks together.

One could only dream that with the pieces we already have in place that we've now laid the foundations for our next dynasty.

Not long until now we find out which direction the club will be heading in anyway 😁
Click to expand...

Even though GWS overpaid for Pick 4 previously giving away that many picks for just Pick 4 would cause the AFL to block the trade IMO. On points value we win by the equivalent of Pick 2. It's also worth noting they had Tom Green as an Academy player that year who was expected to go top 5 so they might have been happier to overpay to avoid their pick being eaten by a bid. Plus they traded their future first coming off playing in a Grand Final - I don't think they expected it to be Pick 9.

Something that's more likely is 4 + 24 for 10, 13 and 15. It's something I would strongly consider if Hollands/DGB are gone but even then I'm warming to the idea of Phillips. I think we'd be more likely to take the tall in Thilthorpe though. I guess the question is would a potential haul of Cox, Henry & Ford (who I would reach for) > Thilthorpe & Dumesny.
 
chopflop said:
Hypothetical

Essendon's 6 + 8
For Hawthorn's 4 + 24
Plus a First-round pick swap in 2021.

This would have us moving back 2 but up 16 so we would need to add a sweetener. The sweetener is a hedge position in the 2021 draft i.e. swapping first-round positions. If Essendon think they will be good and we will be s*&t, they might go for something like this?

Plus, if we managed to finish above Essendon because they become really s*&t, we win get their 1st rounder. Not sure they would go for it but for me it seems a pretty fair deal which has the fun "gamble" aspect to it. You know, win big look like a genius, or lose big and look like a muppet.
Click to expand...

No ******* way I am given pick 24 as well. - pick 6 and 8 for 4 or no dice.
 
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