2020 Finals Campaign

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Purple_Turtle

Stockholm Syndrome
Oct 12, 2019
1,272
2,218
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
South Fremantle, Hull City
I saw Ryan Buckland in the West today did a piece on this. He reckons (Monte Carlo method or something like that) 9 or 10 wins will likely be what a team needs to make top-8.

So that's about 5 or 6 more wins from 7 games for us.
 

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Van_Dyke

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 7, 2015
23,638
31,269
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Chelsea, Glory, Warriors, NOLA,

obviously not in order for the rounds yet to be announced but it's still a ladder predictor that has got all the games that need to be played
 

Quokka

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 10, 2010
5,601
7,264
AFL Club
Fremantle
Hate to say it. Would rather lose a couple. Sign up our stars. Go to the draft for 1 more drink. Sort out our s & c. Bring in the line coaches we need.
Then eat the afl for breakfast 2021.
We have an incredible young list already.
Once we can get them healthy we b world beaters
Not too worried about where we finish but I hope we're conservative with injuries and win at all costs in everything else. The confidence and belief the young players gain (in JLo, themselves, teammates etc) is worth dropping a couple of draft places imo.






Plus it's more fun to watch.
 

Fat Nyfe

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 18, 2012
6,490
12,452
Melbourne
AFL Club
Fremantle

obviously not in order for the rounds yet to be announced but it's still a ladder predictor that has got all the games that need to be played
Geez that's a bit of a reality check. We'd probably need to go 6-1 from here just to finish 8th.
Unless we start seeing teams like Sydney, North and Adelaide causing upsets against sides around the 8 like GWS, Essendon and St Kilda.
 

Van_Dyke

Brownlow Medallist
Jun 7, 2015
23,638
31,269
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Chelsea, Glory, Warriors, NOLA,
Geez that's a bit of a reality check. We'd probably need to go 6-1 from here just to finish 8th.
Unless we start seeing teams like Sydney, North and Adelaide causing upsets against sides around the 8 like GWS, Essendon and St Kilda.
would likely need to get a heavy % boost as well somewhere along the way
 

Taylor

Community Leader
Jul 16, 2009
48,332
51,751
Perth
AFL Club
Fremantle
would likely need to get a heavy % boost as well somewhere along the way
We would need to demolish Sydney and North - but Sydney is exceptionally good at turning footy into a scrap - although their average losing margin is 24 points almost half their losses have been by under 10 points.
 

Johnny Dalmas

Club Legend
Oct 16, 2015
1,952
2,837
Albany
AFL Club
Fremantle
If we can get past Carlton and Sydney, then we are in the mix for a spot right at the bottom of the 8.

Most of the teams we play in the last month or so are teams that are are in the bottom part of the 8 or just outside (Doggies, GWS, Dees, even Richmond), that means those games will be "8 point games": us winning also has the advantage of knocking back a rival for that last finals spot.

It means that we won't be in the position of, say, never being able to catch up because our winning streak is nullified by the winning streaks of those around us on the ladder; they won't be able to be on that same winning streak, because us beating them will have stopped their streak.

But we need to keep on winning in Perth first.
 

StingBitten

Norm Smith Medallist
May 31, 2012
5,628
9,237
Bayswater
AFL Club
Fremantle
I recall our last year loss against Carlton in the last minute. Really broke me as a fan and my faith in Ross.

Things have been tracking OK before then too.

Let's review this once we've finished up our home hub hey...
 

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Cal555

Senior List
Aug 26, 2018
202
438
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
East Freo
Hate to say it. Would rather lose a couple. Sign up our stars. Go to the draft for 1 more drink. Sort out our s & c. Bring in the line coaches we need.
Then eat the afl for breakfast 2021.
We have an incredible young list already.
Once we can get them healthy we b world beaters
It’s not a popular take but I like it. Win a few games to keep the members happy, play the kids to give us hope, play a brand of football that I enjoy watching and don’t finish 9th. I’ve already upgraded my membership for next year.
 

Bring back Drum

Mini Bus
Jul 8, 2019
1,518
3,823
AFL Club
Fremantle
I think someone needs to tell JLo our favourite time of the year is draft week!

That’s when the little fella struts his stuff & gives us hope, not sure if I like this finals talk?
 

thefreodockers

Team Captain
Apr 22, 2010
473
595
Martin
AFL Club
Fremantle
Love this extremely far fetched fantasy thread already.

It’d be great if one of the number crunchers on here could list all the ideal match results for other teams to assist Freo into the 8 so we know who to cheer for each game - the rest of the season would be far more interesting to watch
 

Quazar

Senior List
Aug 31, 2017
169
367
Albany WA
AFL Club
Fremantle
Other Teams
Manchester United, Colorado Aves
didn't realistically think we'd play Finals based off the earlier losses, just racked up too many in the hub sadly. A loss like tonight can be devastating to morale, the art of coaching for Longmuir now is to get the gang off the deck and to go again and be ready to remedy. To lead, to inspire. Hard one to cop naturally. Still, weirdly as it sounds - this season has shown me that a new era dawns and it looks far more rosier than I thought fairly early on. Still got some creases to proper iron out, but it feels like we jumped a hoop on the progress already.

Serong has been a revelation and can only wonder "what if", if Young hadn't done his ankle. Same with Sturt. Watson has debuted and been serviceable and Henry and possibly Valente to get a look in and show their wares over the next few weeks perhaps. We have awesome growth potential with our gun recruits coming through, still a lot to be optimistic about :)
 

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