2020 Finance Betting Thread

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
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Update on Betfairs RBA April interest rates market:
-0.25% = $1.26
No Change = $12
+0.25% = $38
Any other change = $3.05


Smallish move... interesting to see if it keeps trending that way
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
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-0.25 = $1.7
No Change = $8.2
+0.25 = $450
Any other change = $2.56

its looking more and more likely that there will be a cut to interest rates. By tomorrow the odds could be reversed. Sportsbet still have $3 for an interest cut, could be a risk-free investment opportunity

Edit: By risk-free im safely assuming that there is basically 0% chance that they will increase IR's
 

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burge13

Club Legend
Jan 25, 2019
1,735
2,101
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Adelaide
-0.25 = $1.7
No Change = $8.2
+0.25 = $450
Any other change = $2.56

its looking more and more likely that there will be a cut to interest rates. By tomorrow the odds could be reversed. Sportsbet still have $3 for an interest cut, could be a risk-free investment opportunity

Edit: By risk-free im safely assuming that there is basically 0% chance that they will increase IR's
Whered you see that? Sportsbet still has no change at 1.40
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,550
446
Auckland, New Zealand
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GWS
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UK Unemployment Rate for March-May 2020

What will the UK unemployment rate be for the period March-May 2020 , according to the Office For National Statistics?

From Smarkets (26/3/20):
Lower than 5.0% = $6.60
5.0-5.9%= $2.86
6.0-6.9%= $2.86
7.0-7.9%= $3.90
8.0% or higher = $10.50

Market Rules= "This market concerns the seasonally-adjusted UK unemployment rate for those aged 16 and over for the period March-May 2020. The result of this market will be determined by the unemployment rate published by the Office for National Statistics for the said period: https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsx/lms Figures will be taken to one decimal place (0.05% will be rounded up "
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
2,726
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Surely after the latest announcement, interest rates are close to a certainty to not change.
Can anyone give me a reason not to load up at $1.40?
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
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Took as much as possible on Betfair
Sportsbet have cut the odds to $1.35 now.
Really wishing I got on the $1.7 offered on Betfair last week, easy in hindsight
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
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I know im spamming this but I just think its as good as anything
$1.40 on lads for no IR change
Im on this market hard, biggest bet ive ever made
 

NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
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Pound to US Dollar Parity in 2020

Currently at time of speaking 1 USD = 0.81 GBP (3/4/20)

Yes $6.00 v $1.11 No


From Smarkets Betting Exchange

Market Rules: Dollar / Pound Exchange rate market rules: This market concerns the exchange rate between the UK Pound (GBP) to the United States Dollar (USD). If this rate is set at 1 Pound to 1 Dollar at any point in 2020, yes will be settled as the winner. If not, then no will be settled as the winner. This page or equivalent if this page is moved will be used as the authorative source: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/boe...=&CSVF=TT&html.x=264&html.y=41&C=C8P&Filter=N
 

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NYRB

Club Legend
Oct 6, 2011
1,550
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I would have never imagined the Pound and US dollar being on parity.

You look at the history since 2003, never has the Pound on parity with the US Dollar. Personally, feel if it did hit parity, it would be the time to buy US Dollars in the view of selling off long-term.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
2,726
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Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Australian Residential Property Price Indexes - Melbourne - April to June:
Decrease by more than 2.0% - $1.31
Decrease by 2.0% or less - $1.82
No Change - $1.5
Increase by 2.0% or less - $1.5
Increase by more than 2.0% - $1.01

Corresponding odds are to back

interesting market. the $1.31 seems like another absolute gift, any real estate gurus here? There are markets for every city. Sydney is $1.40 to decrease by more than 2.0%.
 

anabac

All Australian
Feb 21, 2011
679
327
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AFL Club
North Melbourne
Australian Residential Property Price Indexes - Melbourne - April to June:
Decrease by more than 2.0% - $1.31
Decrease by 2.0% or less - $1.82
No Change - $1.5
Increase by 2.0% or less - $1.5
Increase by more than 2.0% - $1.01

Corresponding odds are to back

interesting market. the $1.31 seems like another absolute gift, any real estate gurus here? There are markets for every city. Sydney is $1.40 to decrease by more than 2.0%.
$1.31 is poison IMO. Hardly anyone is selling so who knows what that means for the price index, it could go up or down but $1.31 is hideously bad odds. Just cos we got the virus, doesn't necessarily mean the ass falls out of the market instantly.
 

NonPhixion

Shevchenko's Bullet
Mar 27, 2018
2,595
2,726
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Collingwood
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Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
$1.31 is poison IMO. Hardly anyone is selling so who knows what that means for the price index, it could go up or down but $1.31 is hideously bad odds. Just cos we got the virus, doesn't necessarily mean the ass falls out of the market instantly.
fair enough. ive got NFI about property just trying to get a discussion going.
 

rank and file

Club Legend
Jun 9, 2013
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We all missed out on the 'Great Shale Short'
From oilprice.com
A bunch of petroleum engineers and traders have expressed for years their bearish views about U.S. shale.They have been shorting U.S. energy stocks for months and the oil price collapse made them millions.
Cheeky,clever bastards.
 

iluvparis

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Apr 1, 2005
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We all missed out on the 'Great Shale Short'
From oilprice.com
A bunch of petroleum engineers and traders have expressed for years their bearish views about U.S. shale.They have been shorting U.S. energy stocks for months and the oil price collapse made them millions.
Cheeky,clever bastards.
So presumably they were short US oil as it doubled from $60 to $120 a few years ago?
 

rank and file

Club Legend
Jun 9, 2013
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michael mitchell country
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bell park
So presumably they were short US oil as it doubled from $60 to $120 a few years ago?
Not sure of the mechanics or timing,
but the crew behind it "Energy Fintwit" #EFT
are a bunch of insiders who undermined the industry they worked in and made a killing.
From the Financial Review 14-4-2020
The groups members acknowledge they could not have anticipated the CV outbreak and the extent of the oil market route,but they say the crash validates the argument they were making when oil was at US60$ which is that many US shale opetators were unfit to survive a major shock.
"When oil was US100$ it was more difficult to identify the bad companies" from one of the groups players.
The thing I like is that they trolled the shit out of their own industry and bosses on twitter and walked away with the chocolates.
 

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