News 2020 Fixture Discussion

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The Victorian

Club Legend
Oct 23, 2018
2,662
2,379
Victoria
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Storm, Western Utd
2020 games at HOME GROUND:
Adelaide Crows: 10 (including two away games at AO vs Port Adelaide and Hawthorn)
Brisbane- 9
Gold Coast- 9
Fremantle- 7
Port Adelaide- 7
West Coast- 7 (including an away game at Optus vs Fremantle)
GWS Giants- 6
Carlton- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Richmond and Essendon)
St Kilda- 4 (including two away games at Carlton and North Melbourne)
North Melbourne- 4 (including two away games at Marvel against Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs)
Richmond- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Melbourne and Collingwood)
Western Bulldogs- 4 (including an away game at Marvel vs St Kilda)
Sydney- 4
Collingwood- 3
Geelong- 3
Essendon- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Collingwood)
Hawthorn- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Richmond)
Melbourne- 2

FTA GAMES

TeamFTA Games (R1-17)
Adelaide2
Brisbane7
Carlton8
Collingwood9
Essendon9
Fremantle1
Geelong10
Gold Coast3
GWS Giants7
Hawthorn6
Melbourne6
North Melbourne4
Port Adelaide5
Richmond11
St Kilda6
Sydney3
West Coast6
Western Bulldogs9
 

Jen2310

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2018
9,763
12,540
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
GC Suns, Melb Stars
So we're at 4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses currently.

If we beat Carlton in Darwin, North @ home but lose to Richmond

It puts us as 6 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses going into the bye. Not out of contention for finals.
For us draw teams, we need 38 points, or 9 wins to qualify for the 8
 

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Jen2310

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 21, 2018
9,763
12,540
Melbourne
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
GC Suns, Melb Stars
How can we know that in advance?
Just projections?
Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.



Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)
 

Mt Isa Mustang

Club Legend
Nov 23, 2019
1,929
2,093
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.



Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)
Ok,
So it's just a guide, because obviously in those seasons some teams had played each other twice and other teams hadn't played at all.
Probably about right, but not actual modelling based on the current standings from this year.
 
Aug 17, 2009
18,234
36,741
On a boat
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Southampton F.C., eAFL SUNS
I immediately went back and re-read post #1 after reading post #2

manangatang is good people
Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.
 

Mr Bods

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
6,547
8,505
Southern GC-the beautiful city
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.
You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.
 
Aug 17, 2009
18,234
36,741
On a boat
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Southampton F.C., eAFL SUNS
You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.
I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.
 

Choppers

Club Legend
Dec 5, 2015
2,039
3,129
Banchang,Thailand
AFL Club
Gold Coast
I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.
Great attitude.....love it.

Cheers
 

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