News 2020 Fixture Discussion

The Victorian

Norm Smith Medallist
Oct 23, 2018
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2020 games at HOME GROUND:
Adelaide Crows: 10 (including two away games at AO vs Port Adelaide and Hawthorn)
Brisbane- 9
Gold Coast- 9
Fremantle- 7
Port Adelaide- 7
West Coast- 7 (including an away game at Optus vs Fremantle)
GWS Giants- 6
Carlton- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Richmond and Essendon)
St Kilda- 4 (including two away games at Carlton and North Melbourne)
North Melbourne- 4 (including two away games at Marvel against Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs)
Richmond- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Melbourne and Collingwood)
Western Bulldogs- 4 (including an away game at Marvel vs St Kilda)
Sydney- 4
Collingwood- 3
Geelong- 3
Essendon- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Collingwood)
Hawthorn- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Richmond)
Melbourne- 2

FTA GAMES

TeamFTA Games (R1-17)
Adelaide2
Brisbane7
Carlton8
Collingwood9
Essendon9
Fremantle1
Geelong10
Gold Coast3
GWS Giants7
Hawthorn6
Melbourne6
North Melbourne4
Port Adelaide5
Richmond11
St Kilda6
Sydney3
West Coast6
Western Bulldogs9
 
So we're at 4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses currently.

If we beat Carlton in Darwin, North @ home but lose to Richmond

It puts us as 6 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses going into the bye. Not out of contention for finals.
For us draw teams, we need 38 points, or 9 wins to qualify for the 8
 
How can we know that in advance?
Just projections?
Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.



Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)
 

Mt Isa Mustang

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Nov 23, 2019
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Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.



Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)
Ok,
So it's just a guide, because obviously in those seasons some teams had played each other twice and other teams hadn't played at all.
Probably about right, but not actual modelling based on the current standings from this year.
 
Jul 11, 2006
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I would like your opinion on post #2 of their game day thread on their board for Monday
I immediately went back and re-read post #1 after reading post #2

manangatang is good people
 
Aug 17, 2009
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I immediately went back and re-read post #1 after reading post #2

manangatang is good people
Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.
 

Mini GF

Norm Smith Medallist
May 21, 2017
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Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.

You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.
 
Aug 17, 2009
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You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.
I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.
 
Dec 5, 2015
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I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.

Great attitude.....love it.

Cheers
 
Jul 11, 2006
5,805
6,718
Chermside
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Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.
Shitposting?
 
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