News 2020 Fixture Discussion

[The Victorian]

2020 games at HOME GROUND:
Adelaide Crows: 10 (including two away games at AO vs Port Adelaide and Hawthorn)
Brisbane- 9
Gold Coast- 9
Fremantle- 7
Port Adelaide- 7
West Coast- 7 (including an away game at Optus vs Fremantle)
GWS Giants- 6
Carlton- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Richmond and Essendon)
St Kilda- 4 (including two away games at Carlton and North Melbourne)
North Melbourne- 4 (including two away games at Marvel against Hawthorn and Western Bulldogs)
Richmond- 4 (including two away games at MCG vs Melbourne and Collingwood)
Western Bulldogs- 4 (including an away game at Marvel vs St Kilda)
Sydney- 4
Collingwood- 3
Geelong- 3
Essendon- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Collingwood)
Hawthorn- 3 (including an away game at MCG vs Richmond)
Melbourne- 2

FTA GAMES

Team	FTA Games (R1-17)
Adelaide	2
Brisbane	7
Carlton	8
Collingwood	9
Essendon	9
Fremantle	1
Geelong	10
Gold Coast	3
GWS Giants	7
Hawthorn	6
Melbourne	6
North Melbourne	4
Port Adelaide	5
Richmond	11
St Kilda	6
Sydney	3
West Coast	6
Western Bulldogs	9

 

[Jen2310]

So we're at 4 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses currently.

If we beat Carlton in Darwin, North @ home but lose to Richmond

It puts us as 6 wins, 1 draw, 7 losses going into the bye. Not out of contention for finals.

For us draw teams, we need 38 points, or 9 wins to qualify for the 8

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

For us draw teams, we need 38 points, or 9 wins to qualify for the 8

How can we know that in advance?
Just projections?

 

[Jen2310]

How can we know that in advance?
Just projections?

Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.

The secret to playing AFL finals this year — how many wins it’ll take, and what your club needs

Secret to playing AFL finals this year — and what your club needs

www.foxsports.com.au

Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)

 

[Mt Isa Mustang]

Its been mentioned for a few months that 9 wins is the minimum.

The secret to playing AFL finals this year — how many wins it’ll take, and what your club needs

Secret to playing AFL finals this year — and what your club needs

www.foxsports.com.au

Average: 9.2 wins

There’s a clear pattern here. It’s pretty simple in most seasons - win a majority of your first 17 games (ie a 9-8 record) and you’re in the top eight. Put simply, this year’s bar is nine wins.

Just like how in a 22-game season, the actual bar is just above 12 wins, you generally want more than nine to be sure. The most extreme example is in 2016, a very top-heavy year, when North Melbourne sat eighth with an 11-6 record.

On two occasions a team has snuck into the eight after 17 rounds with fewer than nine wins:

- in 2009, Essendon was eighth, and held onto that spot with just 10.5 wins by the end of the season. The Bombers were then demolished in their elimination final by 96 points;

- in 2000, Brisbane, Adelaide and Hawthorn were all on eight wins. The Lions and Hawks both went on to make the eight, and actually won their respective elimination finals.

Still, we can reasonably expect that in 2020, teams should be aiming at a minimum of nine wins to play finals footy. Obviously, win more if you can, but that should be enough. (Having a good percentage will help too.)

Ok,
So it's just a guide, because obviously in those seasons some teams had played each other twice and other teams hadn't played at all.
Probably about right, but not actual modelling based on the current standings from this year.

 

[robo_1]

Yep surprise surprise the RICHmond and Collingwood games at the Gabba
VFL

I would like your opinion on post #2 of their game day thread on their board for Monday

 

[Jen2310]

I would like your opinion on post #2 of their game day thread on their board for Monday

Pay no attention to what they say.

 

[Mini GF]

I would like your opinion on post #2 of their game day thread on their board for Monday

Not surprised. Shows a level of entitlement by someone who spends his fan life hiding behind the skirt of a “big club”.

 

[Big Red Machine]

I would like your opinion on post #2 of their game day thread on their board for Monday

I immediately went back and re-read post #1 after reading post #2

manangatang is good people

 

[manangatang]

I immediately went back and re-read post #1 after reading post #2

manangatang is good people

Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.

 

[Mini GF]

Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.

You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.

 

[manangatang]

You and The Gun are much loved in my books. It hurts to say when we are playing you though.

I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.

 

[Choppers]

I’ll let you in on a secret. I was born in ‘82, and until 2017 was tortured by my club.

While I do love our current circumstances (and those of the past 3 seasons really), I’m the last person to gloat at the expense of other clubs, because I had 30-odd conscious years of being the butt of those jokes.

Over that time I also learnt that no amount of weird remote Pygmy tribe rain dances or other incantations allowed me to have any control or ownership over the result either way, so I’ve become invested but detached in results (if that makes sense).

So I now just enjoy the game for what it is. Hopefully it’s a ripper on Monday.

Great attitude.....love it.

Cheers

 

[Big Red Machine]

Very kind of you.

I’m looking forward to this game on Monday.

Don’t mind the natives over at the Richmond board, at least 47% of it is pisstaking. The trouble I have is working out what the other 53% is.

Shitposting?

 

[manangatang]

Shitposting?

I suppose a certain % is; but there’s a remaining % that’s just unable to be categorised.

 

[Big Red Machine]

I suppose a certain % is; but there’s a remaining % that’s just unable to be categorised.

I think that's a job for the CSIRO

Waaaaay above our pay packets

 

[The Victorian]

Round 18 due to be confirmed on Wednesday

 

[nutstar]

Round 18 due to be confirmed on Wednesday

Crossing fingers were confirmed for Adelaide oval... preferably on the weekend

 

[Jen2310]

 

[nutstar]

I get my wish !!! Now to make sure being the away club I can get tickets

 

[The Victorian]

A massive chance to chalk up our first win at the Adelaide oval