Prediction 2020 Ladder Predictions

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StCicatriz said:
why am i being tagged into another thread by you. this is like the 5th time you've done it, this year!!!!!

it's getting disturbing how and why you keep thinking of me, completely unprompted and then tagging me into threads.

as for the challenge. no one thinks freo are going to win the spoon. they're s**t but they're not worst in the comp s**t.
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Because you are addicted to anything freo related just like a crack addict loves his crack cocaine.

I just need to look at your posting history to see how many of your posts are freo related.

Freo live rent free in your skull.
 

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bh90210fan said:
I’m backing a few other teams around the mark to overtake you guys this season

Richmond are likely to have a hangover from last season, which is not uncommon as history shows. While teams like GWS, WC, Brisbane and Collingwood still have a point to prove and are just as talented or even more so than Richmond on paper.

You’ll be hunted all season and I think some of your senior players will start slowing as the year progresses with players like Edwards, Riewoldt, Houli, Cotchin etc in their 30’s and Martin hitting 29. Your reliance on Martin might hold you back too and the Rance saga might’ve had a destabilising effect on the team

The dogs recruited well in the off season and should be pushing top 4 with their draw and players like Naughton and English having another pre season under their belts

I guess the only team I’ve selected to finish above you which might raise a few eyebrows is Hawthorn but I just reckon the addition of Mitchell to their midfield will push them up into the 8
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Whether Richmond is likely to slip or not depends on what angle you look at so that’s fine, but there I disagree with those teams you mentioned being just as good or better than Richmond on paper. If that’s the case, then how come Richmond won the last 2/3 Premierships as well as lose a PF while being raging favourites because they finished 1st at the end of the H&A season?

The boat of Richmond not being one of the better sides on paper has sailed in 2017 because the evidence strongly suggests otherwise - even with Rance out.
 
Lsta062 said:
Whether Richmond is likely to slip or not depends on what angle you look at so that’s fine, but there I disagree with those teams you mentioned being just as good or better than Richmond on paper. If that’s the case, then how come Richmond won the last 2/3 Premierships as well as lose a PF while being raging favourites because they finished 1st at the end of the H&A season?

The boat of Richmond not being one of the better sides on paper has sailed in 2017 because the evidence strongly suggests otherwise - even with Rance out.
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Yes you’re one of the better sides on paper, I agree with you, that’s obvious of course. There are just a few other teams out there with around the same number of A graders in them imo. That’s what I was getting at. Your success in 2017 and 18 coincided with a charmed injury run and home finals, which were factors to take into consideration. While last season you were able to climb the ladder in the back half of the year with a healthy list and an amazing stretch of games on your home ground which should also be noted. You do have a talented list, but I’ve tipped a few sides with just as much talent to sneak past you this year
 
Foucault1989 said:
My prediction:

West Coast
Richmond
Bulldogs
GWS
Collingwood
Brisbane
Geelong
Melbourne
St Kilda
Essendon
Melbourne
Port Adelaide
Carlton
Adelaide
Sydney
North Melbourne
Hawthorn
Gold Coast
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Taking over Freo's fixture as well as our own is a mighty difficult task.
 
bh90210fan said:
Yes you’re one of the better sides on paper, I agree with you, that’s obvious of course. There are just a few other teams out there with around the same number of A graders in them imo. That’s what I was getting at.
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I should correct myself. I don't think Richmond are just one of the better sides on paper. I say that they are one of the best sides on paper. As in, top 2 kind of best. My evidence is the results from the last 3 seasons.

bh90210fan said:
Your success in 2017 and 18 coincided with a charmed injury run and home finals, which were factors to take into consideration. While last season you were able to climb the ladder in the back half of the year with a healthy list and an amazing stretch of games on your home ground which should also be noted. You do have a talented list, but I’ve tipped a few sides with just as much talent to sneak past you this year
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"Coincided with a charmed injury run", "amazing stretch of games on your home ground".

Do you really think that these type of reasons were the sole factor in our Premiership?
- In 2017 we played 11 MCG games all season (less than what West Coast played in Perth!) and still finished top 4. Geelong played plenty of finals at the MCG so that nonsense of losing HGA in the QF is overstated because they are basically a neutral side for us there just like Essendon and Carlton are. If we were to play Essendon and Carlton we would not play them at Marvel. We would play them at the MCG and you don't see their supporters breaking down over it. Even Geelong supporters largely did not break down over it. Just some of the media and non-Victorian supporters. Geelong were simply not good enough.

- In 2019 we still had injuries deep into our winning streak and won the Premiership after having to travel to Brisbane for the QF (a travel that West Coast had to do in Round 1 where they got spanked by 44 points). We comfortably defeated Brisbane and earned our finals HGA from there on. We then crushed GWS who beat Collingwood AT the MCG the round before.

Neither the reduction of MCG games nor injuries stopped us from winning the Premiership in either of those seasons. Funnily enough it was in 2018 where we had a lot of MCG games and barely any injuries. No Premiership that year for us.

We were the best team with the best team structure especially in 2019. Simple as that and I think it is time for you to accept it.
 
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bh90210fan said:
Schofield and Hutchings aren’t even b22 players for us and Redden isn’t vital for us

Our older players in Hurn, Jetta, Shuey and Kennedy are spread all over the park whereas your entire midfield is getting tired. Dusty may only be 29 this year but we’ve seen how much Cotchin slowed last season at the 29 mark. Martin will be targeted week in, week out and it won’t surprise me at all to see him slow in similar fashion this season. Being the hunted might take a toll on some of your senior citizens as the season wears
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Entire midfield getting tired? Senior citizens? One bloke over 30 (Edwards). Our 2 best midfielders are Prestia - 27, who just had a easily career best year and Dusty - 28 who tore the finals series to pieces on his way to a 2nd Norm Smith and 2nd Gary Ayers medal. Then you have a few guys 27-28 (Caddy, Lambert, Pickett) and the supporting crew are all 22 or under (Graham, Stack, Ross, RCD, Bolton, Higgins).

You realize footballers peak around 27-29 years old right?

Cotchin slowed. Do you mean injured? He go 2 touches less per game in 2019 and went off early in at least 2 games (including early in the 1st quarter V pies). Hasn't missed a beat pre season. I reckon he'll spend more time off the ball this year too with Ross coming in.

Yes, Martin will be targeted. Just as he was this year. That's generally what happens to the good players. I'd be shocked if he's on the decline now and I'd say you're alone on that one. Also he'll spend alot more time forward than he will midfield anyway which will only help preserve his body.

All in all an ill informed, junk post from a bloke that seems to have a fascination with the tigers as shown by the lingering you do in every main board thread about us. And there is a lot.
 

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I don't have a prediction.
 
Lsta062 said:
I should correct myself. I don't think Richmond are just one of the better sides on paper. I say that they are one of the best sides on paper. As in, top 2 kind of best. My evidence is the results from the last 3 seasons.
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I don’t think it’s that clear cut to be able to narrow it down so much. Nearly every side in the comp has a few star players running around and there’s a some such as GWS, Collingwood and West Coast who match you guys for talent on paper, and Brisbane is around the mark too. With a bit of luck on the injury front and the right game plan there’s around 6 clubs in with a decent crack at taking out the lot and there’s usually a surprise performer or two each year. It’s still a very even competition and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to predict a bit of a slide for you guys with the amount of heat you’ll cop all year


Lsta062 said:
"Coincided with a charmed injury run", "amazing stretch of games on your home ground".

Do you really think that these type of reasons were the sole factor in our Premiership?
- In 2017 we played 11 MCG games all season (less than what West Coast played in Perth!) and still finished top 4. Geelong played plenty of finals at the MCG so that nonsense of losing HGA in the QF is overstated because they are basically a neutral side for us there just like Essendon and Carlton are. If we were to play Essendon and Carlton we would not play them at Marvel. We would play them at the MCG and you don't see their supporters breaking down over it. Even Geelong supporters largely did not break down over it. Just some of the media and non-Victorian supporters. Geelong were simply not good enough.

- In 2019 we still had injuries deep into our winning streak and won the Premiership after having to travel to Brisbane for the QF (a travel that West Coast had to do in Round 1 where they got spanked by 44 points). We comfortably defeated Brisbane and earned our finals HGA from there on. We then crushed GWS who beat Collingwood AT the MCG the round before.

Neither the reduction of MCG games nor injuries stopped us from winning the Premiership in either of those seasons. Funnily enough it was in 2018 where we had a lot of MCG games and barely any injuries. No Premiership that year for us.

We were the best team with the best team structure especially in 2019. Simple as that and I think it is time for you to accept it.
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No of course I don’t think they were sole factors for you, but having home finals and an abnormally healthy list for 2 years definitely contributed in 17, 18. Last years run of home games in the most taxing part of the season was publicly scrutinised for being an advantage for you. Blind Freddy can see that

as a Melbourne based team you get to play the majority of your games on only two grounds which is an advantage for you. Yes you only played 11 games on the mcg in 17 but playing a few games up the road is hardly a burden. You still played more games there that year than almost every other tenant

You guys had a healthy list in the back half of last season with the exception of Rance and am blowing it way out of proportion there

a combination of the right game plan, favourable fixturing, luck with injuries and home finals have all contributed over the last few seasons for Richmond. To go along with having one of the more talented lists which imo is matched by a number of other clubs. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see you drop a few spots this year
 
bh90210fan said:
I don’t think it’s that clear cut to be able to narrow it down so much. Nearly every side in the comp has a few star players running around and there’s a some such as GWS, Collingwood and West Coast who match you guys for talent on paper, and Brisbane is around the mark too. With a bit of luck on the injury front and the right game plan there’s around 6 clubs in with a decent crack at taking out the lot and there’s usually a surprise performer or two each year. It’s still a very even competition and I don’t think it’s much of a stretch to predict a bit of a slide for you guys with the amount of heat you’ll cop all year



No of course I don’t think they were sole factors for you, but having home finals and an abnormally healthy list for 2 years definitely contributed in 17, 18. Last years run of home games in the most taxing part of the season was publicly scrutinised for being an advantage for you. Blind Freddy can see that

as a Melbourne based team you get to play the majority of your games on only two grounds which is an advantage for you. Yes you only played 11 games on the mcg in 17 but playing a few games up the road is hardly a burden. You still played more games there that year than almost every other tenant

You guys had a healthy list in the back half of last season with the exception of Rance and am blowing it way out of proportion there

a combination of the right game plan, favourable fixturing, luck with injuries and home finals have all contributed over the last few seasons for Richmond. To go along with having one of the more talented lists which imo is matched by a number of other clubs. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see you drop a few spots this year
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So we come to the travel argument then if you think playing 11 MCG games didn’t eliminate the supposed in the ‘17 H&A season. If that is the case, then I see that your opinion is that every Victorian side that won in the last decade had some sort of unfair advantage because they all are compelled to travel less than non-Victorian sides in fixturing.

I am not doubting that you don’t think our list and gameplan is good, but it doesn’t sound like you are giving Richmond as a side the credit that their achievements show. Sounds like you’re putting the 2 Premierships and 1 Minor Premiership down to extraneous variables more than inherent ability in comparison to past Premiers, and I disagree with that. You’re not directly saying this but it really appears like you are insinuating it or else you’d be saying these things every year a team wins.

To clarify, I believe that there is nothing wrong with dropping Richmond down on the ladder and I have no problem with you putting us 7th. There are many valid reasons why this could happen (Caracella leaving, Rance no longer playing/coaching our backline etc.). I just have an issue with your view on Richmond’s last 3 years and the reasons behind our success.
 
Lsta062 said:
So we come to the travel argument then if you think playing 11 MCG games didn’t eliminate the supposed in the ‘17 H&A season. If that is the case, then I see that your opinion is that every Victorian side that won in the last decade had some sort of unfair advantage because they all are compelled to travel less than non-Victorian sides in fixturing.

I am not doubting that you don’t think our list and gameplan is good, but it doesn’t sound like you are giving Richmond as a side the credit that their achievements show. Sounds like you’re putting the 2 Premierships and 1 Minor Premiership down to extraneous variables more than inherent ability in comparison to past Premiers, and I disagree with that. You’re not directly saying this but it really appears like you are insinuating it or else you’d be saying these things every year a team wins.

To clarify, I believe that there is nothing wrong with dropping Richmond down on the ladder and I have no problem with you putting us 7th. There are many valid reasons why this could happen (Caracella leaving, Rance no longer playing/coaching our backline etc.). I just have an issue with your view on Richmond’s last 3 years and the reasons behind our success.
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Now you’re putting words in my mouth. How can you insist Geelongs final against you was a nuetral game and then claim Richmond were disadvantaged by playing games at marvel stadium in 2017? They’re just as nuetral as Geelong at the mcg. You even get a game against a non Victorian side at marvel which can be considered an advantage for you most years

as a Melbourne based club you obviously get more nuetral games, including those at marvel. Especially if you want to consider Geelongs games at the mcg a nuetral contest. You’re lucky you get to play so many on the mcg, Collingwoods the only other club to get that treatment so sorry if I don’t consider your ‘only 11 home games’ complaint very valid
 
bh90210fan said:
Now you’re putting words in my mouth. How can you insist Geelongs final against you was a nuetral game and then claim Richmond were disadvantaged by playing games at marvel stadium in 2017? They’re just as nuetral as Geelong at the mcg. You even get a game against a non Victorian side at marvel which can be considered an advantage for you most years

as a Melbourne based club you obviously get more nuetral games, including those at marvel. Especially if you want to consider Geelongs games at the mcg a nuetral contest. You’re lucky you get to play so many on the mcg, Collingwoods the only other club to get that treatment so sorry if I don’t consider your ‘only 11 home games’ complaint very valid
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I didn’t say you said it. I said that your words imply it and I mean that from my perspective. Hence I didn’t put words in your mouth.

We play at Marvel Stadium 4 times a year at most. Sydney as a non-Victorian side played at Marvel Stadium more than we did in 2018.

Geelong have played at the MCG 8 times a year in the last 2 years and 7 times in 2017. This is exactly the same amount of times that Essendon played at the MCG in the last 3 years and one less than what Carlton did and they are both pretty much a neutral side for us there. Playing 23 times at the MCG in 3 years is more than enough experience at the MCG. Compare that to our 11 Marvel Stadium games in 3 years and you see why I say that Geelong is more of a neutral side at the MCG to MCG tenants than Richmond against Marvel tenants at Marvel.

It is exposure as they play a heap of games there.
 
Lsta062 said:
I didn’t say you said it. I said that your words imply it and I mean that from my perspective. Hence I didn’t put words in your mouth.

We play at Marvel Stadium 4 times a year at most. Sydney as a non-Victorian side played at Marvel Stadium more than we did in 2018.

Geelong have played at the MCG 8 times a year in the last 2 years and 7 times in 2017. This is exactly the same amount of times that Essendon played at the MCG in the last 3 years and one less than what Carlton did and they are both pretty much a neutral side for us there. Playing 23 times at the MCG in 3 years is more than enough experience at the MCG. Compare that to our 11 Marvel Stadium games in 3 years and you see why I say that Geelong is more of a neutral side at the MCG to MCG tenants than Richmond against Marvel tenants at Marvel.

It is exposure as they play a heap of games there.
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Geelong were fixtured 5 games at the mcg before they met you in the first final

you were fixtured 4 at marvel

There’s no difference. Either they’re all nuetral or they aren’t, you can’t have it both ways
 
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