Analysis 2020 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[SGBeach]

This is complete garbage. One stat needs to improve and that’s his accuracy.

Yep, complete garbage!
He was playing great footy for a 1st and 2nd year player. kicked 50 goals 30 behinds.
Last year he was injured which dramatically affected his accuracy, Ive no doubt he'll be fine this year

 

[SGBeach]

I wonder what position Dawson will be playing 2 years from now?
With highly talented half backs coming through (Ling and Gould in particular), will Dawson better serve the team at half forward? Dawson is an elite kick and very good mark - two great attributes for a half forward. He kicked 15 goals 1 last year and if he spent most of his time at half forward its not hard to imagine him kicking 40 goals in a season (plus many goal assists). Buddy and Reid are getting towards the end of their career, no-one can replace Buddy, but I can see Dawson playing Reids role whose versatility is his strength (2nd ruck, drops back as a spare in defence). Dawson has pinch hit in the ruck (poorly) and would be an excellent spare in defence.
thoughts anyone?

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

I wonder what position Dawson will be playing 2 years from now?
With highly talented half backs coming through (Ling and Gould in particular), will Dawson better serve the team at half forward? Dawson is an elite kick and very good mark - two great attributes for a half forward. He kicked 15 goals 1 last year and if he spent most of his time at half forward its not hard to imagine him kicking 40 goals in a season (plus many goal assists). Buddy and Reid are getting towards the end of their career, no-one can replace Buddy, but I can see Dawson playing Reids role whose versatility is his strength (2nd ruck, drops back as a spare in defence). Dawson has pinch hit in the ruck (poorly) and would be an excellent spare in defence.
thoughts anyone?

I like him at half back for the moment at least. The depth of his kicking from there is pure gold. Heeney and Hayward across half forward and we have McCartin and McLean (maybe) as our key forwards for the future.

 

[SGBeach]

I like him at half back for the moment at least. The depth of his kicking from there is pure gold. Heeney and Hayward across half forward and we have McCartin and McLean (maybe) as our key forwards for the future.

Imagine a forward line in a few years of..
- Dawson, Heeney, Haywood, McCartin - all medium forwards (McCartin is a big medium forward), all good marks, all can kick goals, all very mobile, high skill set, can apply pressure (also dont forget about the mercurial E Taylor who Horse and Kinnear have described his skill set as the best they've seen)
Add a quality Tall and throw in a couple of small pressure crumbing forwards in the mix, thats an outstanding forward line. Dawsons delivery inside 50 and his accurate kicking for goal would be a massive plus.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in the coaches rooms.. How far ahead are they planning? What goals do they have for certain players and certain areas of the ground (forwards, mids, backs)?? Is playing Dawson at half back part of his development for him to eventually play half forward or McCartin as a KPD part of his development as a KPF??

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Imagine a forward line in a few years of..
- Dawson, Heeney, Haywood, McCartin - all medium forwards (McCartin is a big medium forward), all good marks, all can kick goals, all very mobile, high skill set, can apply pressure (also dont forget about the mercurial E Taylor who Horse and Kinnear have described his skill set as the best they've seen)
Add a quality Tall and throw in a couple of small pressure crumbing forwards in the mix, thats an outstanding forward line. Dawsons delivery inside 50 and his accurate kicking for goal would be a massive plus.

Would love to be a fly on the wall in the coaches rooms.. How far ahead are they planning? What goals do they have for certain players and certain areas of the ground (forwards, mids, backs)?? Is playing Dawson at half back part of his development for him to eventually play half forward or McCartin as a KPD part of his development as a KPF??

Mate I don’t know. What I do know though is that a bloke with Dawson’s depth of kicking forces the press of the opposition ever back as they get sick of 2 way running that extra 10 metres every time.

I like Lloyd but one of the problems with him is that his kicks don’t go deep enough and are relatively easy for a midfield to maintain pressure under.

 

[SGBeach]

Mate I don’t know. What I do know though is that a bloke with Dawson’s depth of kicking forces the press of the opposition ever back as they get sick of 2 way running that extra 10 metres every time.

I like Lloyd but one of the problems with him is that kid kicks don’t go deep enough and are relatively easy for a midfield to maintain pressure under.

Touch wood.. Gould will develop the way we hope. His kick by all reports is bigger than Dawsons.
Good point you make. I guess the decision comes down to where is Dawsons kick best valued ? Scoring (the main aim) or forcing the opponent back (taking pressure off our defence, reducing the repeat entries into our defensive 50, opening up opportunity for us to score)
The players around will have a big say I guess.. If We've a lot of run off half back (Ling, Allirr etc), we can achieve the same result. If Gould can take on that role, also same result. But, if the forwards are kicking 100 pts each game.......

hmm, still love to be that fly on the wall

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Touch wood.. Gould will develop the way we hope. His kick by all reports is bigger than Dawsons.
Good point you make. I guess the decision comes down to where is Dawsons kick best valued ? Scoring (the main aim) or forcing the opponent back (taking pressure off our defence, reducing the repeat entries into our defensive 50, opening up opportunity for us to score)
The players around will have a big say I guess.. If We've a lot of run off half back (Ling, Allirr etc), we can achieve the same result. If Gould can take on that role, also same result. But, if the forwards are kicking 100 pts each game.......

hmm, still love to be that fly on the wall

Oh look there’s heaps to be excited about. And I do tend to write from the perspective of an ex running midfielder (Hannebery type but s**t). And I’d hate to have a Dawson type hoofing it over my head from half back.

 

[Kirkswan]

Florent at the start of 19 should have been in the 2s

shitful first half

If he plays 150 games he is a third through his career

Except Gary Ablett Jnr and Dustin Martin......for instance.

Not saying he will be a "star" but even the current day stars took a few years to get rolling.
Dusty took 3 years & then started winning more of the ball.
It wasn't until his 5th year that Danger averaged 27 disposals.
Until then, in his 4th season he averaged 17 disposals.

Ollie's got plenty of time to get better & he took significant steps at the back end of last season when he had more midfield time.
He averaged 19 disposals in his third season. He has plenty of time to become what we need him to become for the club.

How much do you think it has to do with the strength of the rest of the team?

So Ollie is in a team that lacks experience, and strength... so is that impacting his capacity to excel?
What was happening in Gary and Dustin's team when it first became apparent that they were something special? Where they on the rise or the fall? Was it a really young team or a good mix?

Anyone remember and care to share?

 

[Ticky009]

Scratch match against GWS next Sat according to a post on RWO.
FOOTY IS GETTING CLOSE PEOPLE!!

 

[kangle4]

Scratch match against GWS next Sat according to a post on RWO.
FOOTY IS GETTING CLOSE PEOPLE!!

Leon Cameron mentioned it on radio during the week.

 

[Bear31]

My first post
Whatever your best 22 we now have depth in almost all areas.
Defence

1. The drafting of Brand and re rookie of Maibaum gives us more depth in KPD
2. Fox and Thurlow have experience
3. Hoping Ling comes good this year
4. Gould should debut this year

Midfield

1. The drafting of L Taylor and S Gray give us a bit more experience
2. We are long on youth in the midfield especially if Heeney plays forward and Dawson plays back
3. Stephens should debut this year
4. More games into Rowbottom, Blakey and Florent
5. Hoping one or two of Warner, Foot and McInerney get a few games

Rucks

1. Hoping Naismith can stay on the park
2. One of the two rookie rucks tears it up in the NEAFL. We need depth

Forwards

1. Forwards look the best of all areas of the ground
2. Hoping Buddy plays at least half of games
3. Hoping Papley stays. will leave a huge hole otherwise. is a gun
4. Looking forward to seeing what Elijah Taylor can do. Dont expect a debut until 21

All in all depth in most areas. Lots of promising youth in all areas.
Campbell and Gulden will provide competition for spots in 21.

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[caesar88]

How much do you think it has to do with the strength of the rest of the team?

So Ollie is in a team that lacks experience, and strength... so is that impacting his capacity to excel?
What was happening in Gary and Dustin's team when it first became apparent that they were something special? Where they on the rise or the fall? Was it a really young team or a good mix?

Anyone remember and care to share?

I've said this for a long time about how the team around them can really impact a player's form in their development years.

Guys like Florent, Hayward, McCartin, Blakey and Rowbottom have not had the luxury of time and development spent in the lower levels that the likes of Parker, Mitchell, Hewett and Dawson enjoyed.

 

[Artygunner]

can someone tell me what's going on with Ling? I am excited but a little worried that we haven't heard much about him. Sydney have a way of dropping ready made players on the park round 1 and blind siding everyone.

 

[Millky95]

can someone tell me what's going on with Ling? I am excited but a little worried that we haven't heard much about him. Sydney have a way of dropping ready made players on the park round 1 and blind siding everyone.

Had some foot issues that have set him back

 

[DobmusEdge]

His stats need to improve and quickly. If his resembles Rohans then hes nowhere near good enough.

He’s contracted for the next five seasons so he’s got a bit of time

 

[brad cooper]

can someone tell me what's going on with Ling? I am excited but a little worried that we haven't heard much about him. Sydney have a way of dropping ready made players on the park round 1 and blind siding everyone.

article just out on afl.com about him, been training all pre season

 

[SGBeach]

article just out on afl.com about him, been training all pre season

Also an article on the swans website with Maibaum.. great to see those two young guys fit and firing up for 2020

 

[BruceFromBalnarring]

Touch wood.. Gould will develop the way we hope. His kick by all reports is bigger than Dawsons.
Good point you make. I guess the decision comes down to where is Dawsons kick best valued ? Scoring (the main aim) or forcing the opponent back (taking pressure off our defence, reducing the repeat entries into our defensive 50, opening up opportunity for us to score)
The players around will have a big say I guess.. If We've a lot of run off half back (Ling, Allirr etc), we can achieve the same result. If Gould can take on that role, also same result. But, if the forwards are kicking 100 pts each game.......

hmm, still love to be that fly on the wall

Horse alludes to Ling on the wing. That'd be great for more reasons than just the rhyme.

 

[sataris]

Whatever your best 22 we now have depth in almost all areas.

We'll find out just how deep the list bats once the injuries roll in.

I don't think the depth is there.

 

[Bear31]

We'll find out just how deep the list bats once the injuries roll in.

I don't think the depth is there.

I agree we will find out how deep the list bats once we get a few injuries. I know we are not going to win the comp this year. But the youth to me looks exciting. Injuries will create opportunities and our best young players will rise. Its an exciting time. I think over the next two years with the addition of campbell and gulden and others, more games into our younger players but especially in the mids we will get a clearer picture of where we are at. We are very thin in experience in the mids especially. Also the ruck. But we are better than we were last year. This is going to take time. Im optimistic. Its only February.

 

[Bear31]

I agree we will find out how deep the list bats once we get a few injuries. I know we are not going to win the comp this year. But the youth to me looks exciting. Injuries will create opportunities and our best young players will rise. Its an exciting time. I think over the next two years with the addition of campbell and gulden and others, more games into our younger players but especially in the mids we will get a clearer picture of where we are at. We are very thin in experience in the mids especially. Also the ruck. But we are better than we were last year. This is going to take time. Im optimistic. Its only February.

To me a guide to how well we will go this year is barring injuries to key players in order of priority

1. Naismith puts in a season like he did a few seasons ago(assuming Sinclair stays fit)
2. Gould and Stephens debut well and play a good chunk of the season
3. Ling debuts and impresses and eventually keeps his spot
4. The rest of the younger players get games and contribute (competition for spots is fierce)

If just that happens. I will be very happy and we will be competitive.

 

[SGBeach]

I agree we will find out how deep the list bats once we get a few injuries. I know we are not going to win the comp this year. But the youth to me looks exciting. Injuries will create opportunities and our best young players will rise. Its an exciting time. I think over the next two years with the addition of campbell and gulden and others, more games into our younger players but especially in the mids we will get a clearer picture of where we are at. We are very thin in experience in the mids especially. Also the ruck. But we are better than we were last year. This is going to take time. Im optimistic. Its only February.

for me, optimism lies in the facts that...
- yes we lose a lot of experience with Jack, Macca, Grundy, Smith retiring, but they weren't contributing last year so we've already had a full year to adapt. Therefore we should be better than last year.
- Our old players, ie. Buddy and Kennedy will slow a bit more, but only a bit, and with decent fitness (buddy) and small changes in their role (JPK), they should at least contribute as much, if not more than last year, and we should at least stay on par with last year
- We've got 31 players on our list that are aged 24 and younger. and 5 or 6 aged 25-26 including Allirr, Lloyd, Cunningham. Speaking very generally, the best footy is played between in the mid to late 20's ?. This means that about 25 of our top 30 players are a year closer to their best footy. This extra years experience (also physical development) suggests to me that we will be better than last year
- A weak point was our ruck. Hopefully between Naismith, Sinkers and even Knoll, we will improve in this area from last year
- A weak point was KPD.. traded in Brand, Melican might come good, Maibaum might enter? Cant be worse than last year.
- The midfield was a weakness.. Its again very young, but at least we'll have a ruck. Its also much more dynamic with possibilities like Rowbottom, Florent, Ling, Mcinerney, Taylor, Cunningham (injured most of last year), Blakey, Paps, Stephens, Heeney, Foot and others all running through the mids (and most of them running very quickly) I feel the midfield is in a transition and will be better, at least more interesting than last year.

The trick will be getting the right 22 on the park each week. Theres soo many options and many players seem very even, team selection is crucial. Good luck coaches.
Cant wait!!!!

 

[caesar88]

for me, optimism lies in the facts that...
- yes we lose a lot of experience with Jack, Macca, Grundy, Smith retiring, but they weren't contributing last year so we've already had a full year to adapt. Therefore we should be better than last year.
- Our old players, ie. Buddy and Kennedy will slow a bit more, but only a bit, and with decent fitness (buddy) and small changes in their role (JPK), they should at least contribute as much, if not more than last year, and we should at least stay on par with last year
- We've got 31 players on our list that are aged 24 and younger. and 5 or 6 aged 25-26 including Allirr, Lloyd, Cunningham. Speaking very generally, the best footy is played between in the mid to late 20's ?. This means that about 25 of our top 30 players are a year closer to their best footy. This extra years experience (also physical development) suggests to me that we will be better than last year
- A weak point was our ruck. Hopefully between Naismith, Sinkers and even Knoll, we will improve in this area from last year
- A weak point was KPD.. traded in Brand, Melican might come good, Maibaum might enter? Cant be worse than last year.
- The midfield was a weakness.. Its again very young, but at least we'll have a ruck. Its also much more dynamic with possibilities like Rowbottom, Florent, Ling, Mcinerney, Taylor, Cunningham (injured most of last year), Blakey, Paps, Stephens, Heeney, Foot and others all running through the mids (and most of them running very quickly) I feel the midfield is in a transition and will be better, at least more interesting than last year.

The trick will be getting the right 22 on the park each week. Theres soo many options and many players seem very even, team selection is crucial. Good luck coaches.
Cant wait!!!!

Don't hold your breath re the midfield.

 

[caesar88]

We'll find out just how deep the list bats once the injuries roll in.

I don't think the depth is there.

The depth is not there. The list is miles off where it needs to be.

But if you look at say our last 22 from 2019, let's ignore the retirement extravaganza and go to the more regular round 22 against the Dees... From that team I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest there are a handful who would come out of it in an ideal world:

Clarke, Fox, Melican, Jack, Ronke, Menzel and Bell.

That's potentially seven spots up for grabs. Missing from that team was Buddy, Naismith and Hayward, who are all more important to the team than those seven.

Menzel < Buddy.
Ronke < Hayward.
Jack < L. Taylor.
Clarke < Gray.
Bell < Stephens.
Melican < Brand. (Could argue on par.)
And Naismith who potentially brings more to the side than Fox. Even Gould has a few more strings to his bow than Fox.

So without doing any major list changes that would shoot us back up the ladder, I think we have at the very least managed to improve the quality of our best 22. That's a start, and it has me confident that we can add a few more wins to our tally this year. Depth is something we probably don't need to be worrying about, as it's mainly a concern for contenders who are really relying on wins every week. Somehow I don't think that'll be us in 2020!

 

[mtooler]

The depth is not there. The list is miles off where it needs to be.

But if you look at say our last 22 from 2019, let's ignore the retirement extravaganza and go to the more regular round 22 against the Dees... From that team I don't think it's unreasonable to suggest there are a handful who would come out of it in an ideal world:

Clarke, Fox, Melican, Jack, Ronke, Menzel and Bell.

That's potentially seven spots up for grabs. Missing from that team was Buddy, Naismith and Hayward, who are all more important to the team than those seven.

Menzel < Buddy.
Ronke < Hayward.
Jack < L. Taylor.
Clarke < Gray.
Bell < Stephens.
Melican < Brand. (Could argue on par.)
And Naismith who potentially brings more to the side than Fox. Even Gould has a few more strings to his bow than Fox.

So without doing any major list changes that would shoot us back up the ladder, I think we have at the very least managed to improve the quality of our best 22. That's a start, and it has me confident that we can add a few more wins to our tally this year. Depth is something we probably don't need to be worrying about, as it's mainly a concern for contenders who are really relying on wins every week. Somehow I don't think that'll be us in 2020!

Agree with your analysis.