Analysis 2020 List, Game Plan and Best 22?

[Kummerspeck]

I said pretty rationally what I think are some of the pros and cons of the game plan

No you didn't. You said the team moved the ball from halfback well and Longmire became defensive when challenged.

What IS the game plan?

 

[The King!]

As I said, you can go back through time if you really need convincing that I have acknowledged Horse's attempts at change. I just believe he doesn't stick to it enough, which I've also said before. I just gave you a whole paragraph where I said pretty rationally what I think are some of the pros and cons of the game plan, a lot more than "a few adjectives". If you aren't happy with that criticism, maybe it's because you just don't like it or agree with it. And you disliking or disagreeing with someone's opinion shouldn't do your head in. Lighten up, it's only footy.

Wouldn’t bother. It’s been answered so many times over the last few years

 

[The King!]

The draft over the last few years is a good indication of where The Swans game plan is headed.. Speed, Skill, Attack
Florent, Ling, Stoddart, McInerney, Foot, Blakey, Stephens are all very quick half back flankers - wing - half forwards. Add to that Wicks, Bell, Reynolds, Rowles.
Rowbottom (who like Stephens and Florent can play inside/outside and is relatively quick) and Warner are the contested ball winners
Dawson, Blakey, Gould are all excellent and attacking kicks - From half back to half forward.
Then there's E Taylor, a highly skilled mercurial forward
The game plan is evolving as the young crew develops. Having the ability to play defensively or stop the oppositions momentum is always going to be important, and especially important with a young team, but it seems pretty clear Horse is implementing and the Swans are evolving a more attacking game plan.

Horse always coaches the attacking instincts out of them until they learn to move sideways or slow and wait until bud and co have no space or advantage on their opponent
im sure he can do it to the new guys again

 

[SGBeach]

Horse always coaches the attacking instincts out of them until they learn to move sideways or slow and wait until bud and co have no space or advantage on their opponent
im sure he can do it to the new guys again

Will you ever write a positive post, or are you simply a grumpy old man?

 

[Kummerspeck]

Wouldn’t bother. It’s been answered so many times over the last few years

No it hasn't. You've said that before and when I asked you to point out where, you stopped responding.

Horse always coaches the attacking instincts out of them until they learn to move sideways or slow and wait until bud and co have no space or advantage on their opponent

No he doesn't.

 

[The King!]

Will you ever write a positive post, or are you simply a grumpy old man?

I write positive posts as often as Longmire led teams score over 100

Good ratio isn’t it?

 

[Kummerspeck]

I write positive posts as often as Longmire led teams score over 100

Good ratio isn’t it?

Longmire's had 3 seasons averaging 100 points a game (with a few more barely under) and had only had 3 seasons where we haven't been above average scorers in the league.

 

[SGBeach]

I write positive posts as often as Longmire led teams score over 100

Good ratio isn’t it?

Sounds fair.. as long as you only write negative posts when Longmire led teams score under 100

 

[The King!]

Sounds fair.. as long as you only write negative posts when Longmire led teams score under 100

How about you say something the club does poorly

 

[SGBeach]

2012 - 2290 points - 5th highest
2013 - 2244 - 3rd
2014 - 2122 - 3rd
2015 - 2000 - 6th
2016 - 2221 - 4th
2017 - 2093 - 5th
2018 - 1822 - 10th
2019 - 1706 - 12th
that's not a bad record.

Interestingly, last year after the AFL bought in all those rule changes to speed the game up and ultimately produce more goals, was the lowest scoring year by far. Only Brisbane kicked over 2000 points (2004)

 

[SGBeach]

How about you say something the club does poorly

ok.. Ill say something negative for every positive thing you write.. deal?

Ill start. They lost $500k this year. Biggest supporter base in the country and still lost money, who's running this show!!!

 

[elastic]

Possibly. He's definitely still one of our better players but he doesn't strike me as the type who will reinvent himself in another position. Only way I can see him getting a few more years out of himself is if he's in a background role like Jude was in his final years. Still capable of vintage moments but good for 20 or so touches instead of his usual 30 and his usual toughness in a supporting role to the youngsters.

If he's doing any more than that, you have to ask questions about our rebuild. If he's doing less than that, you have to wonder why he's in the team.

I'd like to see JPK using his bulk to shepherd and free up space for others more in close confines. For years his opponents have just sat on him, tackling him the moment he picks up the ball because they know he is our number 1 in and under player. I agree that others need to take on the inside mid role a bit more but there are other ways he can help in there. I think Hewett is a very good inside mid and Rowbottom is also looking capable in that role.
Losing hitouts continually every week makes it difficult for our midfielders because their opponents have the advantage in knowing where the ruck tap is likely going to. If we can at least break even on the hitouts then Hewett won't have to tag as much.

 

[brad cooper]

How about you say something the club does poorly

charges far too much for a wa membership

 

[SeanM]

I think last season was a bit weird. There were a lot of games where there were big momentum shifts during the game. Where we might be losing by a few goals and look poor but then kick lots of back to back goals and almost win. And other games where we start well and get a good lead but then struggle for the rest of the game.

It happened with all teams. So I can't explain it.

But I think our results will improve if we can be more consistent during the game. So if the other team has got momentum, find some way to get control of the game for a while.

People will say "don't pack everyone into the defensive 50 and bomb it out". But when the team is under pressure, it is hard to keep forwards up and make precise kicks. Though there might be strategies we can work on. Like figuring out a combination of forwards who are effective on the counterattack when outnumbered. Or planning out short safer kicking options where someone can take a mark and relieve the pressure.

 

[bungee]

No disrespect intended here bungee but I disagree with quite a few of your points here.

- I am not as optimistic on JPK as you are. IMO he has already gradually dipped in his performance each year since 2017 when he was robbed of an AA (what’s new). That’s acceptable and actually expected when a player hits 30. It’s not unrealistic to expect his performance to continue to decline. Does that mean he should be put out to pasture? No. But we are a few years away from contending for a flag, and so if JPK is going to still be around then, it will be as a minor statesman of the club, similar to Jude in 2012. So if we as a rebuilding team are supposed to be putting the pieces in place for that next flag tilt, I don’t think it’s a stretch to believe we should start preparing for JPK to play that minor role now.

- Never said JPK wasn’t our dominant mid. My concern is that he is still our dominant mid. Who is our next superstar mid who can dominate games and lead from the front at centre bounces? Is it Heeney? Don’t know because he only spends 50% of time in there. Is it Florent? Don’t know as the last month of 2019 was the only time he’s seen any centre circle action. Is it Dawson or Mills? Don’t know because they’re off being versatile which is a MUST now days. Is it Rowbottom or Blakey? Don’t know because apparently the idea of a teenager in there is madness! (Even though Worpel just won a club champion award as one). Is it Hewett? Don’t know because he can’t be trusted with that role yet, only tagging roles.

- Taggers can be important but it’s incredibly frustrating when you have a young mid who already bid his time in the NEAFL (two years!), then a whole year as a half forward in the seniors, to still be being held back from the role he is capable of. We saw him go head to head against two of the very best in Lachie Neale and Ben Cunnington in pure ball-winning roles and come out on top in both cases. In both cases, the next week he was back to doing shut down roles. This also raises the question of the other youngsters learning in a tagging role as well. Why the heck would I want Florent or Blakey or Rowbottom learning through tagging when there’s a very good chance they’ll never graduate from those apprenticeships? I’ll pass thanks!

- Which brings me to your last point about players learning in other roles. I was all for that at first, but it’s becoming very obvious that Horse’s “apprenticeships” don’t have graduations. All these players we keep being told are part of our midfield’s future aren’t actually part of it at all. Hewett was drafted in 2013 - six years later is not a ball-winner first and foremost. Heeney was drafted in 2014 - five years later he’s still split 50/50 between midfield and forward. Mills and Dawson were drafted in 2015 - four years later they’re both largely in defence. I get it, maybe a few of them have turned out to be better suited to other positions, but those “apprenticeships”, combined with Hewett & Dawson’s lengthy NEAFL stints, speak to a larger concern which is that I think Horse doesn’t trust his young midfielders enough. Or maybe he has too much faith in his two leaders. Or maybe it’s both.

We’re a rebuilding side and I can see the changes he’s implemented to our back line, and it’s blatantly obvious with our forward line too. But we’re getting left behind with our midfield because he is reluctant to pull the trigger on rebuilding that part of our team. GWS know Taranto & Hopper will be leading their future midfield. Hawthorn know Worpel will be leading theirs. Bulldogs know Bontempelli & Dunkley will be leading theirs. Carlton know Cripps will be leading theirs. But we don’t know who will be leading ours. I rate our youngsters collectively big-time but look at the season any of them had compared to the seasons any of the names I just mentioned had (all of whom are in a similar age bracket btw) and they pale in comparison by some margin, because they’re still supporting players to us, which makes even less sense to us as a rebuilding team than it would if we were a finalist like GWS or the Bulldogs!

And FWIW, I only said Hewett was fitter than Parker & Kennedy because I’m pretty sure he is based on what I saw. JPK had a few injuries this year, while Parker also played a lot with strapping on his leg and it was noted quite a few times on this board throughout the year that he looked to be playing slightly hindered.

I'm not being 'optimistic' on JPK I'm just stating facts. His drop in output over 2017/18 coincided with the loss of Hanners and Mitchell, his taking on the sole captaincy role and the run of injuries to our ruck stocks. His output increased in 2019 which coincided with the split of the captaincy, the further development of Hewett and the emergence of younger midfielders such as Florent and Rowbum. Statistical data suggests Kennedy's fitness is less likely to be concern at his age than risk of soft tissue injury. Barring injury his endurance, at 31, ought to be close to its peak. Moving kennedy out of the role would only place more presssure on yound mids while they develop. I'm not always a fan of the sink or swim approach.

Hewett's ability to go to head to head with other mids while still curtailing their output speaks volumes of how far he's come and how much he's learned through his tagging roles. Don't forget Hewett was a pick 32 not a first round pick like Tarranto and Hopper. We haven't had the early picks that a lot of less successful clubs have had.

Your opinion is welcome but you're not a coach, you're a frustrated fan. You're not the only one. The trouble is you see a player emerge from a tagging role into that of an attacking midfielder and erroneously assume they were always ready to go but had been held back by some mysterious malicious or malevolent intent on the coach's part.

There is every sign that developing our next generation of midfielders remains a priority with the club. I don't agree that Florent has barely had a look in. He's come on leaps and bounds as a young midfielder and I think we'll be singing his praises in a few years time. I think we picked up a real winner in Stephens and if Mills/Heeney and/or Dawson join the mids this year we've got the makings of a great midfield. Yes we're behind where we should be in terms of development but s**t happened. We've had to contend with the same go home factor that plagues other non-Victorian clubs. Losing Mitchell because of wanting to go home and $ constraints then injury to Hanners in the same year was a big hit to our midfield plans. Now we've lost Jones. The club did well to hang on to Papley. I'm pretty convinced the club would have run Mills in the mids last year had we not lost so many defenders at once.

Bottom line is we're in transition. The whole system is designed to stop one club being dominant for too long.

 

[bungee]

Possibly. He's definitely still one of our better players but he doesn't strike me as the type who will reinvent himself in another position. Only way I can see him getting a few more years out of himself is if he's in a background role like Jude was in his final years. Still capable of vintage moments but good for 20 or so touches instead of his usual 30 and his usual toughness in a supporting role to the youngsters.

If he's doing any more than that, you have to ask questions about our rebuild. If he's doing less than that, you have to wonder why he's in the team.

Rebuilding doesn't mean throwing out experience. JPK needs to shoulder the weight while our younger mids gain experience. We don't throw inexperienced defenders into the thick of it, nor inexperienced forwards.

Seems the team can't escape criticism. If we give responsibility to a player it's throwing them to the wolves, if we don't it's holding them back. Any young mid is going to stand taller next to Parker and Kennedy, knowing they're taking the lion's share of the flak and he'll learn a heap from them. Kennedy may spend some time forward in future but while he still pulls 25-30 possies/game and one of the best in the comp for clearances he still has a huge role to play if he's fit.

 

[bungee]

I think last season was a bit weird. There were a lot of games where there were big momentum shifts during the game. Where we might be losing by a few goals and look poor but then kick lots of back to back goals and almost win. And other games where we start well and get a good lead but then struggle for the rest of the game.

It happened with all teams. So I can't explain it.

But I think our results will improve if we can be more consistent during the game. So if the other team has got momentum, find some way to get control of the game for a while.

People will say "don't pack everyone into the defensive 50 and bomb it out". But when the team is under pressure, it is hard to keep forwards up and make precise kicks. Though there might be strategies we can work on. Like figuring out a combination of forwards who are effective on the counterattack when outnumbered. Or planning out short safer kicking options where someone can take a mark and relieve the pressure.

I mainly agree. We're within a few kicks/game of returning to finals and heading in the right direction. No need to panic.

 

[caesar88]

I'm not being 'optimistic' on JPK I'm just stating facts. His drop in output over 2017/18 coincided with the loss of Hanners and Mitchell, his taking on the sole captaincy role and the run of injuries to our ruck stocks. His output increased in 2019 which coincided with the split of the captaincy, the further development of Hewett and the emergence of younger midfielders such as Florent and Rowbum. Statistical data suggests Kennedy's fitness is less likely to be concern at his age than risk of soft tissue injury. Barring injury his endurance, at 31, ought to be close to its peak. Moving kennedy out of the role would only place more presssure on yound mids while they develop. I'm not always a fan of the sink or swim approach.

Hewett's ability to go to head to head with other mids while still curtailing their output speaks volumes of how far he's come and how much he's learned through his tagging roles. Don't forget Hewett was a pick 32 not a first round pick like Tarranto and Hopper. We haven't had the early picks that a lot of less successful clubs have had.

Your opinion is welcome but you're not a coach, you're a frustrated fan. You're not the only one. The trouble is you see a player emerge from a tagging role into that of an attacking midfielder and erroneously assume they were always ready to go but had been held back by some mysterious malicious or malevolent intent on the coach's part.

There is every sign that developing our next generation of midfielders remains a priority with the club. I don't agree that Florent has barely had a look in. He's come on leaps and bounds as a young midfielder and I think we'll be singing his praises in a few years time. I think we picked up a real winner in Stephens and if Mills/Heeney and/or Dawson join the mids this year we've got the makings of a great midfield. Yes we're behind where we should be in terms of development but s**t happened. We've had to contend with the same go home factor that plagues other non-Victorian clubs. Losing Mitchell because of wanting to go home and $ constraints then injury to Hanners in the same year was a big hit to our midfield plans. Now we've lost Jones. The club did well to hang on to Papley. I'm pretty convinced the club would have run Mills in the mids last year had we not lost so many defenders at once.

Bottom line is we're in transition. The whole system is designed to stop one club being dominant for too long.

Regardless of the multiple reasons why JPK's output dropped (and I never said it was purely because of age, though I think it is the main one), the fact is his output did drop. And where I disagree with you is that I don't think it increased in 2019. He had some vintage performances (rd 23 against the Saints being exhibit A), but he also had some vintage performances in 2018 (hello, his game at the Cattery in our comeback victory??) so it's not like his vintage moments were exclusive to 2019. On the whole, he had a lot more un-JPK-like performances where he just looked physically less capable than he was in years past. Hopeless? No, but not what he was. I also felt he and Parker did not show enough respect to some of their more inexperienced peers throughout the year, but well aware I'm alone on that one.

You may be confusing my questions about what Horse is doing with the next generation with simply not rating them. I bang on about the potential of that group probably more than anyone on here. You're giving me a lot of reasons to be excited about the future and I'm with you on them all, but it's still in the future. They're all moves that haven't happened yet, like Hewett being a ball-winner or Florent playing on the ball or Heeney/Mills/Dawson adding to the midfield. They're directly within Horse's control and he's done nothing about them up to this point, so why would I celebrate this transition when the midfield hasn't really transitioned at all? Still work to be done. Not saying it won't happen, but there's nothing to praise yet either.

 

[caesar88]

I think last season was a bit weird. There were a lot of games where there were big momentum shifts during the game. Where we might be losing by a few goals and look poor but then kick lots of back to back goals and almost win. And other games where we start well and get a good lead but then struggle for the rest of the game.

It happened with all teams. So I can't explain it.

But I think our results will improve if we can be more consistent during the game. So if the other team has got momentum, find some way to get control of the game for a while.

People will say "don't pack everyone into the defensive 50 and bomb it out". But when the team is under pressure, it is hard to keep forwards up and make precise kicks. Though there might be strategies we can work on. Like figuring out a combination of forwards who are effective on the counterattack when outnumbered. Or planning out short safer kicking options where someone can take a mark and relieve the pressure.

Not sure what your last paragraph relates to as I thought 2019 was the best we'd been in exiting defence since the Mal/Shaw years. All those things you said we should do, like having forwards effective on the counter-attack, or short, safe kicking options, I thought we had in spades. The likes of Papley & Hayward were pretty consistent in starting some attacking plays from the back half with their speed, while good ball users/decision-makers like Cunningham, Dawson & Blakey certainly helped get us out of there with some sort of method.

 

[bungee]

Regardless of the multiple reasons why JPK's output dropped (and I never said it was purely because of age, though I think it is the main one), the fact is his output did drop. And where I disagree with you is that I don't think it increased in 2019. He had some vintage performances (rd 23 against the Saints being exhibit A), but he also had some vintage performances in 2018 (hello, his game at the Cattery in our comeback victory??) so it's not like his vintage moments were exclusive to 2019. On the whole, he had a lot more un-JPK-like performances where he just looked physically less capable than he was in years past. Hopeless? No, but not what he was. I also felt he and Parker did not show enough respect to some of their more inexperienced peers throughout the year, but well aware I'm alone on that one.

You may be confusing my questions about what Horse is doing with the next generation with simply not rating them. I bang on about the potential of that group probably more than anyone on here. You're giving me a lot of reasons to be excited about the future and I'm with you on them all, but it's still in the future. They're all moves that haven't happened yet, like Hewett being a ball-winner or Florent playing on the ball or Heeney/Mills/Dawson adding to the midfield. They're directly within Horse's control and he's done nothing about them up to this point, so why would I celebrate this transition when the midfield hasn't really transitioned at all? Still work to be done. Not saying it won't happen, but there's nothing to praise yet either.

Kennedy's output did indeed increase in 2019. He easily matched the guys you highlighted like Cunnington, Taranto & Hopper in output and was only narrowly shaded by Cripps on total possies/game. He laid more tackles than any of them and used the ball more effectively than most. Without a decent ruck to give first use and missing more experienced mids to share the load, Kennedy and Parker have done it harder than most over the past couple of years. They've picked up the weight when so many of our champions have gone since 2016 and they've helped to lay down the foundations of our rebuild by guiding and developing our next generation. Give the guy the respect he deserves because the rest of the footy world certainly does, and have a bit of patience while the pieces of the next Swans dynasty are put into place. We've had some setbacks but midfields and great teams are not built overnight.

 

[bungee]

I'd like to see JPK using his bulk to shepherd and free up space for others more in close confines. For years his opponents have just sat on him, tackling him the moment he picks up the ball because they know he is our number 1 in and under player. I agree that others need to take on the inside mid role a bit more but there are other ways he can help in there. I think Hewett is a very good inside mid and Rowbottom is also looking capable in that role.
Losing hitouts continually every week makes it difficult for our midfielders because their opponents have the advantage in knowing where the ruck tap is likely going to. If we can at least break even on the hitouts then Hewett won't have to tag as much.

That may already be happening. Kennedy's tackle stats are at an all time high, fewer centre clearances but not much drop off in overall clearances. Fewer contested possies but uncontested possies went up in 2019 as did his disposal efficiency to an all time high, perhaps indicating that he's not doing as much of the in-tight heavy lifting. He also played more run with roles in 2019, at least for periods of games which may explain his increasing tackles stats. Makes sense to help transition the younger mids.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That may already be happening. Kennedy's tackle stats are at an all time high, fewer centre clearances but not much drop off in overall clearances. Fewer contested possies but uncontested possies went up in 2019 as did his disposal efficiency to an all time high, perhaps indicating that he's not doing as much of the in-tight heavy lifting. He also played more run with roles in 2019, at least for periods of games which may explain his increasing tackles stats. Makes sense to help transition the younger mids.

To a degree, but I sure as anything don't want to see the same starting midfield round 1 and beyond. It's time to transition. No issue JPK being in there however lets start with Rowbottom and Hewett as genuine ball winning mids. Forget the tagger it's useless, just get some young kid to learn on that player.

 

[zyzzbruh]

To a degree, but I sure as anything don't want to see the same starting midfield round 1 and beyond. It's time to transition. No issue JPK being in there however lets start with Rowbottom and Hewett as genuine ball winning mids. Forget the tagger it's useless, just get some young kid to learn on that player.

That's all fine until everyone starts expecting us to win every game despite attempting to transition, followed by proceeding to the longmire thread to spout rubbish.

Longmire will blood the youngsters this year, guaranteed. We won't be making finals, which is fine and logically expected, despite some thinking we're going to be having a blinder. Horse will then cop it for his game plan. It's written on the wall.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

That's all fine until everyone starts expecting us to win every game despite attempting to transition, followed by proceeding to the longmire thread to spout rubbish.

Longmire will blood the youngsters this year, guaranteed. We won't be making finals, which is fine and logically expected, despite some thinking we're going to be having a blinder. Horse will then cop it for his game plan. It's written on the wall.

If I see him putting some young mids in there and not Kennedy, Parker and what not, I'm fine with losses and what not. Putting the usual in there is just a saving face and job by Longmire. I'd rather see him trying things rather than trying to think what has failed in the last season or two is suddenly going to improve.

 

[The King!]

ok.. Ill say something negative for every positive thing you write.. deal?

Ill start. They lost $500k this year. Biggest supporter base in the country and still lost money, who's running this show!!!

yeah thats odd, i think the club model (of all clubs) is a bit flawed , essentially competiting for sponsorship money with the afl

afl collect and control the money a bit

does conversion of supporters to members make a difference? not as much as we probably think based on last year.

i think theres a lot to be positive about, we have Nick Blakey, would be one of the first if not first kids picked if everyone went into a draft pool

dawson is a gun imo already

a lot want more from heeney and mills, but even if they dont improve at all , both are excellent

the club also drafted very much for need this year, maybe they dont all make it, but can't fault the selections at the time

positive enough?

end of the day its the greatest club in the world, win , lose or draw