As Taylor points out a pick in second round might be enough to match a pick mid first round but it creates a new pick in the first round (or match with a second and a late third for eg. after our second). There could well be a team that decides to match a first round pick with multiple seconds so that would be correct what you say. But then the same could be said for a bid match in the second round being matched by two thirds.My understanding is that if a player is bid on then the club needs to match if they want the player minus a discount, end up result is that it chews up draft points and hence draft position for the rest of the draft or worst case future draft.
So earlier the bid the more points.
I expect the opposite to the above, and that picks will disappear in the mid range. So don’t expect our second round Melb pick to slide out to mid 30’s.
Clubs needing to use up picks will have picks disappearing, they may trade back, but if they have to match bids in the first round say good bye to 2nd and 3rd even 4th round picks. Look at what happened to Freo and it’s carry over deficit.
It would take a decent spreadsheet but not impossible to come up with ( I’m sure the clubs have something suitable worked out) to deal with matching pick values and which picks would disappear. Gets messy but will be some big winners!
Think back to 2015 where we did a late trade with a future 2nd for pick 35. This pick slid back 3 places to pick 38 (H. Balic).
Also there are some FA compo picks. Rory Atkins to Gold Coast (4 year contract) is a likely second round pick (an early one at that based on Adelaide’s ladder position), Brad Crouch (depending on contract) is looking like end of first round pick and Daniher most prob a first round pick. That’s just three I can think of. I suspect our second will end up being mid to late 30’s at best.
What does tend to happen is a late third or fourth round pulls forward (so instead of pick 60 you end up with 54). Clubs like Adelaide have a bountiful of picks and won’t bat that deep and clubs going the multiple pick option to match bids in the 2nd/3rd round get a pick back but right at the back end with only a small amount of surplus points left.
If Walls and Belly spend Trade week and subsequent trade of draft pick period in the pub no where to be seen then we would likely end up with something like the following on ND night:
16, 36, 62