List Mgmt. 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread

[Chief]

This is Part 1

The thread is continued in part 2:

List Mgmt. - 2020 List Management, Free Agency & Trade thread - Part 2

This Part 2 Continued from Part 1: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-list-management-free-agency-trade-thread.1241035/ What type of players does our list need? Pace, Skill, Class and and goal threat. A winger, forward flank and forward pocket are the 3 positions that we need, plus...

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[Taylor]

My beloved Blues won't be playing finals so you don't need to worry about that fact. Gold Coast are now only a 50/50 chance to make it so its only the Saints who may spoil your party.

I don't think it spoils the priority pick party for Carlton and Gold Coast to be the only two teams beside us not playing finals in 5 seasons.

Both clubs have been given a leg up by the AFL. One more than the other recently.

Especially when all I want is a second round pick and our points deficit waived

 

[Docker82]

Strong no from me in regards to trading our first rounder.

We have a good thing going but the job is far from close enough to done that we can load up on experienced players.

Our recruiting should be based around improving our best 22 (in a realistic timeframe to win a flag) with our earlier picks and recruiting much required depth with later picks.

I must admit I’ve found the decisions with late picks in recent years quite strange in terms of needs and in terms of who went off the list.

I find it strange we delisted Silvagni, Uebergang, Dawson, Johnson and Collins from 2016 to 2018 and have just Hamling, Logue and Cox to show for it. Four key defenders on our list isn’t enough when three of them would be considered best 22.

Last year Sandilands and Jones are cut, after Apeness the year before and we don’t recruit any ruckman in that period. Three rucks on our list isn’t enough when two of them would be considered best 22.

 

[tonygeeks]

I know I've said it before but the Crows board is just crazy. Who they take at 1 isnt a discussion point anymore, its who they take at 1 and 2, they are that dead set convinced they get 2 for Crouch. Its kinda funny

Just looking for a bit of hope aren't they , what the * do you expect

Anyway I've always likes Seeds from the Crows if they are having a fire sale he'd be a good bloke to get


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[Ysaye]

Does anyone have any footage of Brandon Walker? I want to see this East Freo kid.

Not in a game but you can see what his kicking is like and stuff.....

 

[blue shark]

So have we adequately replaced B Hill, Langdon? Midfield doesn't look too bad now.
I always considered Langdon as a small forward, his kicking, pace as handy around goals.
B Hill I still think we may have seen him at his best here.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Is this true, can we defer our points deficit to another year?

 

[rgauci]

Is this true, can we defer our points deficit to another year?

I’ve never heard that before. I don’t think so.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

If so that would open up some interesting strategies. If we finish the season poorly, you could push the deficit back to keep the high draft pick now, and take the hit in a year or two when hopefully we're playing well enough to be out of the top 10 anyway. Depending on who we have our eye on and whether they'd be available with/without the deficit.

But yeah, not sure if it's true.

 

[Dockeroo]

It’s not true unless we totally trade out of the first round this year. I think the deficit has to come off our next first round pick.

 

[rgauci]

Our future trading has been atrocious.

We seem to really underrate future picks, or over estimate how far up the ladder we’ll go.

Been doing a bad job of it since it was introduced. 2 teams have noticed this league wide trend to undervalue future picks, I note both North and Adelaide have invested heavily in future picks and enter this draft with a raft of picks.

This 2020 draft is our worst draft hand in years. We’ve never had such a poor starting point.

We have our first round pick which will be downgraded by 250 odd points. Melbourne’s 2nd round pick and that’s it.

If someone has the time, I’d love to see a breakdown of our trading using futures and what picks those futures ultimately became.

 

[Freoforever86]

Yeah so Freo have their 1st pick & Melbournes 2nd that’s it.
So I would assume they’ll probably trade a future later pick to get one back this year to grab NGA kids.

probably only going to draft 3 players max. Then one or 2 rookies

 

[Dockeroo]

Our future trading has been atrocious.

We seem to really underrate future picks, or over estimate how far up the ladder we’ll go.

Been doing a bad job of it since it was introduced. 2 teams have noticed this league wide trend to undervalue future picks, I note both North and Adelaide have invested heavily in future picks and enter this draft with a raft of picks.

This 2020 draft is our worst draft hand in years. We’ve never had such a poor starting point.

We have our first round pick which will be downgraded by 250 odd points. Melbourne’s 2nd round pick and that’s it.

If someone has the time, I’d love to see a breakdown of our trading using futures and what picks those futures ultimately became.

I think Snuffaluphagus has had some good posts about this future pick trading in the past. Basically this started in 2015 when we had to trade a future second as part of the Harley Bennell trade.. and it triggered a glut of poor future trades from there on with second rounds picks.
I actually don’t think our draft hand is that bad this year. We could end up sitting there with a top 10 pick and Melbournes second rounder at pick 25 or thereabouts. Yes we lost out third and fourth rounders. But the large amount of bidding that happens this year means that those junk picks we have that start at the end of the draft order will come right into the 60s and maybe even the 50s by the time we get to that point in selections.
it will be important that Walker and Western fall as far as possible down the draft order to avoid any future deficits. To be honest, I could see us having to trade a future pick in the second round to get the points needed for walker and Western. I’d hope Bell and co learned from last year and aren’t scrambling around on draft night from a position of no leverage to do so..

 

[Lach72]

I'm not concerned greatly about the drop in the first pick. There's enough quality at the top end not to be too great a concern.

What happens with Western and the Walker twins if we use our first and second.
Where are we getting the points for them?
Given the reduction in list sizes I can't see us using any more than 4 picks anyway

 

[Taylor]

I'm not concerned greatly about the drop in the first pick. There's enough quality at the top end not to be too great a concern.

What happens with Western and the Walker twins if we use our first and second.
Where are we getting the points for them?
Given the reduction in list sizes I can't see us using any more than 4 picks anyway

We can use points from next season to pay for them.

If their bids come after the first round then our 1st round pick next season is insulated from the points deficit too.

As soon as that 1st pick of round 2 is up for use, our first round pick next year won't be touched by any deficit carried into next season.

 

[Ge3ks]

So have we adequately replaced B Hill, Langdon

Langdon? Yes. Watch his disposals in Melbourne's last couple of games. Terrible. He cannot kick to a target. His F50 entries by foot are unmarkable. Sure he can gather and run, but it all comes undone when his disposals mostly result in turnovers. We are a better team without him.

Hill, on the other hand, is irreplaceable. He has been a huge loss.

But overall, we have done ok. We have recruited and drafted players that can kick and hit a target, and we have more to come. Consider Pina, Carter, Butters, Thomas and Henry. All those boys can kick. Then there is Aish, Sturt and Young, and that laundry list of injured players. We already have a team that can play Longmuir's game of patience and accuracy, even before the upcoming draft. Good times ahead IMO.

 

[Lach72]

We can use points from next season to pay for them.

If their bids come after the first round then our 1st round pick next season is insulated from the points deficit too.

As soon as that 1st pick of round 2 is up for use, our first round pick next year won't be touched by any deficit carried into next season.

ok good.

If we can get our players on the park, I feel we're positioned ok.

We can take a tall forward/DGB first, then a best available mid.
Clean out guys like Giro/North/Dixon.

I'm torn about Dixon as I think there's a good footballer in there somewhere.
Mundy may or may not retire. At this stage I'm leaning towards another one year contract.

Western and Walker offer good value past our second pick.

 

[Wizard]

We can use points from next season to pay for them.

If their bids come after the first round then our 1st round pick next season is insulated from the points deficit too.

As soon as that 1st pick of round 2 is up for use, our first round pick next year won't be touched by any deficit carried into next season.

Thats good news as it seems unlikely at this stage that the Walker boys would be a first rounder and if Western is it'd likely be late first which would eat our 2nd pick this year.

 

[theGav56]

Thats good news as it seems unlikely at this stage that the Walker boys would be a first rounder and if Western is it'd likely be late first which would eat our 2nd pick this year.

If a bid comes in the first round our best move may be pass.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

The thing with trading a future pick is that they are valued a lot less at the time of trading due to the inherent uncertainty. Our future trading will look bad if you look just at us. You’d have to the whole league and compare.

I think this year we were only concerned about having a first and second knowing the NGA would round out our lower picks.

 

[Van_Dyke]

this isn't even our worst draft hand, we entered the 2018 trade period with pick 6, and then pick 72 or something

 

[Taylor]

this isn't even our worst draft hand, we entered the 2018 draft period with pick 6, and then pick 72 or something

Trade Period

 

[Van_Dyke]

Trade Period

whoops, was what i was thinking of

 

[rgauci]

The thing with trading a future pick is that they are valued a lot less at the time of trading due to the inherent uncertainty. Our future trading will look bad if you look just at us. You’d have to the whole league and compare.

I think this year we were only concerned about having a first and second knowing the NGA would round out our lower picks.

I’m not saying our future trading is worse than others, I’m saying their is a league wide devaluation. Two teams have cottoned onto this trend, North and Adelaide and both look to have reaped the rewards based on current ladder positions.

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I’m not saying our future trading is worse than others, I’m saying their is a league wide devaluation. Two teams have cottoned onto this trend, North and Adelaide and both look to have reaped the rewards based on current ladder positions.

I’m not sure where I heard it but sporting codes around the world operate on the understanding a future pick is almost worth a whole round less than a current pick.

It’s devalued because of the risk in knowing where you finish and the value of getting a years develop into someone before the future pick even joins a list. The value of a year of develop seems pretty stupid to me since all comes out in the end but people are paid a lot of money to understand these things so what do I know

I’m not sure about Adelaides future trading but Rawlings seems to know how to rip people off for futures better than anyone. Conned GC when at WC and he’s flogged Melbourne now that he’s at North

 

[Dockeroo]

The thing with trading a future pick is that they are valued a lot less at the time of trading due to the inherent uncertainty. Our future trading will look bad if you look just at us. You’d have to the whole league and compare.

I think this year we were only concerned about having a first and second knowing the NGA would round out our lower picks.

There are 2 types of future trading - the first is when it’s trade week or before draft night. There is no time limit and the club should be able to extract reasonable value here.
The second is when an bid comes in and you are trying to do it live Inside 5 min. In that instance the club may aswell drop it’s trousers and prepare to be screwed hard as that’s exactly what port did to us when that Liam Henry bid came in last year