List Mgmt. 2020 List Management II

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Jeremias

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Sep 26, 2004
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Without trying to upset anyone or cause more controversy here, is it fair to say that for whatever reason (including many not his own fault) Paddy Dow had simply not come as we all expected or hoped by now ?
Oddly enough I feel far more confident in SPS (another whipping boy on this board) turning out to be a great player for us, I have seen many games/flashes of brilliance from SPS, but I have yet to get a similar vibe about Dow sadly.

Just my observation from afar, aka my couch.. This comment is directed at no poster here specifically btw, but I am really worried about Dow and his development (or lack thereof)

I think SPS once the the club and Teague finally figure out his position, which imho is an attacking winger/Half Forward Flanker, he will be fine.
Yes, that is fair to say. But if we're really being fair we can't ignore the context.

Paddy had a very good first year and a good first half of his second year. Teague came in, moved him out of the middle and he has struggled since, not to mention battling with a few injury issues along the way,

We all want our kids to develop quickly and fully, but development isn't linear nor is it consistent from kid to kid. Not every kid will come in and dominate from day like Walsh, he is very much the exception rather than the rule.

Dow has become a bit of a whipping boy of late, but a 20 year old kid playing inconsistent footy and still finding his feet is very, very common.

I'm not worried about Dow unless we continue to play him outside of his natural position. He's a mid, not a forward. And I think he'll be a very good one in time.


We know he's a stupid old man, but this really tells you a lot assuming it's true.

With 5 picks in the 2012 National Draft, SOS selects
  • Whitfield (good)
  • O'Rourke (crap)
  • Plowman (crap)
  • Jacksch (crap)

Before Grundy was taken 18. And now we find out the Senior Coach was pleading the List Manager for them to take the best ruckman, aruably best player from that draft.

SOS is not the list management demi-god many on here make him out to be. He's possibly torched quite a number of our premium picks with Dow, LOB and SPS immediately coming to mind.

The indications that Austin is the consummate professional couldn't be any more welcome in my mind. Our football department stank a bit while St SOS was there.
There's an interesting debate to be had here, but I'm not sure that's really what you are looking for.

Every single list manager in the history of sport has had big misses, SOS is no different.

Name who you believe the best in the business to be, and I guarantee we can find errors that list manager has made. Errors - not just one, but many.

Suggesting one missed pick tarnishes his reputation is a massive stretch.

Also find it funny we bemoan non-recruiting staff for reportedly involving themselves in our own recruiting, yet here you are suggesting it's the domain of the head coach to intervene.
 

AT97

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We know he's a stupid old man, but this really tells you a lot assuming it's true.

With 5 picks in the 2012 National Draft, SOS selects
  • Whitfield (good)
  • O'Rourke (crap)
  • Plowman (crap)
  • Jacksch (crap)

Before Grundy was taken 18. And now we find out the Senior Coach was pleading the List Manager for them to take the best ruckman, aruably best player from that draft.

SOS is not the list management demi-god many on here make him out to be. He's possibly torched quite a number of our premium picks with Dow, LOB and SPS immediately coming to mind.

The indications that Austin is the consummate professional couldn't be any more welcome in my mind. Our football department stank a bit while St SOS was there.
just a question: anyone ever heard sheeds say he got anything wrong ever?
 

AB_Blue

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He seems to be the Tigers version of Setterfield but - according to most of the tiger supporters on the main board - with a lot more 'leadership' qualities. That seems to be one of his strengths.
Tigger players really rate him, Is a bull and does a power of work.

Couldn’t play him with Ed, setters and Cripps. however I think we are asking the question


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Jimmae

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We know he's a stupid old man, but this really tells you a lot assuming it's true.

With 5 picks in the 2012 National Draft, SOS selects
  • Whitfield (good)
  • O'Rourke (crap)
  • Plowman (crap)
  • Jacksch (crap)

Before Grundy was taken 18. And now we find out the Senior Coach was pleading the List Manager for them to take the best ruckman, aruably best player from that draft.

SOS is not the list management demi-god many on here make him out to be. He's possibly torched quite a number of our premium picks with Dow, LOB and SPS immediately coming to mind.

The indications that Austin is the consummate professional couldn't be any more welcome in my mind. Our football department stank a bit while St SOS was there.
That entire draft was a sh*t show, and I think it's painfully clear at this point that SOS doesn't rate the ruck position for the most part. He also had two senior rucks and a development option in Phillips, all contracted.

Remember that talent ID was so terrible back then that everyone was keen on Whitfield and O'Rourke ahead of Macrae, Wines and Stringer. Even now, this is all that's left of the top 25: Whitfield, Stringer, Macrae, Wines, Mayes, Vlastuin, Daniher, Corr, Garner, Thurlow, Grundy, Broomhead. Less than half.

2012 was a draft class I didn't even really look at, but aside from Whitfield, I don't understand how so many of the names in that top 15 were coveted ahead of Grundy. That was a miss by basically the entire league, including us.

I think SOS was a huge upgrade on what we had prior, but I pointed out his flaws all the way along, and feel both he and Brodie went a bit too wild with certain picks along the way, but I still think there's more to be said for O'Brien and Dow's careers, though I would have gone in a different direction in terms of my own rankings, and also in terms of the role they were earmarked for.

SPS is our O'Rourke moment, but even then, he's still delivering far better. Most people learn from their mistakes, and it seems that SOS managed to over time.
 

Arr0w

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We know he's a stupid old man, but this really tells you a lot assuming it's true.

With 5 picks in the 2012 National Draft, SOS selects
  • Whitfield (good)
  • O'Rourke (crap)
  • Plowman (crap)
  • Jacksch (crap)

Before Grundy was taken 18. And now we find out the Senior Coach was pleading the List Manager for them to take the best ruckman, aruably best player from that draft.

SOS is not the list management demi-god many on here make him out to be. He's possibly torched quite a number of our premium picks with Dow, LOB and SPS immediately coming to mind.

The indications that Austin is the consummate professional couldn't be any more welcome in my mind. Our football department stank a bit while St SOS was there.
You make me laugh

You do realise that between the mini and national draft that year, 11 clubs didn't pick Grundy when the had the chance yeah?
 
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We know he's a stupid old man, but this really tells you a lot assuming it's true.

With 5 picks in the 2012 National Draft, SOS selects
  • Whitfield (good)
  • O'Rourke (crap)
  • Plowman (crap)
  • Jacksch (crap)

Before Grundy was taken 18. And now we find out the Senior Coach was pleading the List Manager for them to take the best ruckman, aruably best player from that draft.

SOS is not the list management demi-god many on here make him out to be. He's possibly torched quite a number of our premium picks with Dow, LOB and SPS immediately coming to mind.

The indications that Austin is the consummate professional couldn't be any more welcome in my mind. Our football department stank a bit while St SOS was there.
You missed Aidan Corr, and Plowman is not crap. Corr is 98 games in and Plow over 100. They might not be stars but that is still 3 genuine AFL players from those 5 picks.

That is only one draft as well.
 

DangerousD

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top 5 not best 22? i think there are better ball winners out there to go after than merrett. We can aim to finish 5th-8th or aim for better players to get us better than 5th-8th
Who are you wanting to chase? The top shelf player that would transform the team, I’m sure I’d be supportive.

Theres a big difference between a player being a top 5 player or simply best 22
 

BigBreakfast

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Because wins, losses and percentage right at this point in time is way to simplistic.

You are also basing it on what our outcomes are versus other teams, while ignoring what has happened with results in other games, not to mention progression of rebuilding clubs, that upward trend is never consistent

The main priority for me this year was minimizing/eliminating the large losing margins, which we have done, similar to the likes of the Lions from 2017 to 2018

Next year we improve the numbers dramatically in that critical age bracket, 23-27, which will help with being more consistent for longer and along with adding more layers to the gameplan, I am confident many of the close loses will result in more wins
And doesn’t take into account the unbalanced draw of a bottom 8 side last year, play more games against other bottom 8 sides, and playing every side once this year. Sways the percentage data somewhat.

The reality is we are competitive in more games, margins are smaller. This is growth.
 

katmanblue

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Do I think Dow and LOB will come straight in and play at the required level? I reckon it's a 50/50 prospect. A full preseason can make a huge difference. The reality is, though, that we do need to find at least one spot for one of those young guys (Dow, Stocker, Kemp) and rotate them through it based on form and fitness.

If we add a Josh Kelly or a Zac Williams to the midfield set-up, then Graham is battling for a spot. Why would he come to a club where he is on the fringe of the midfield, when a side like Adelaide or NM would have him on-ball full time? It's as much about what he is getting out if it as what we are.

As I said, if our other major acqusitions are at either end of the ground, I really like Graham as an option. But if we add an elite mid, then we don't need to be throwing a second rounder at Graham given the developing players we've got to rotate through the last spot.

Say we get Witherden and Lonie sewn up. Williams gets pinched by the Saints. Viney and Wines choose to stay where they are. That's the time to go Graham.
Graham goes straight passed Ed. It's Ed who is struggling for a spot.

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BigBreakfast

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Back end of last year our average win margin was 14.5pts (122% of opp score) and average losing margin was 25.6 pts (75%).

This year our average win margin is 13.2pts (126%) and losing margin is 16.5pts (80%).

I've done the percentage as obviously point scoring is notably down this year with shorter quarters and seemingly more defenders playing better than forwards.

Our worst loss under Teague last year was 68 points (47%) while our worst this year is 31 pts (65%).

Our best win under Teague last year was 27pts (145%) while our best this year is 52pts (202%) or 33pts (222%) depending on if you go by points or percentage of opposition score.

Those are improvements, and while our win:loss ration may have dropped from 6:5 to 7:9, we've definitely been 'in' more games and even some of the bad ones haven't been 'horror show' bad on the scoreboard.

Surely we've learnt a hell of a lot from our close losses and we can take those learnings into 2021. It's hurt us that we can't really train any scenario stuff, closing games out and the like, and I really hope we do a metric s***tonne of work in the preseason around stopping opposition momentum and killing those 4+ goal swings.

That being said, despite being pretty ******* pissed about some of our performances recently, I still think we've improved on the 2nd half of last year and think if we can have a good 'uneventful' preseason after bringing in a couple of good best 22 additions then we'll be on.
:clapping: :clapping: :clapping: :clapping:
 

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Eiffel 65

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Has there been an article written on Richmond taking Ben Lennon instead of Crippa ? That would be cool to read ...
I'm pretty confident I read somewhere that had Lennon been on the board, we would have taken him over Cripps too.

It was around the time I was reading some stuff about Cripps and Docherty. It was noted that SOS didn't interview either player in their draft year when he was the list manager at GWS.
 

BigBreakfast

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If he's not we made a huge mistake for the player we rated @ #6 in the 2018 draft. :)
Look, it will be his third year next year and he looked very good in the midfield to me via the pre-season. Absolute bull.

I haven't watched a lot of The Tigers, but Graham has rarely impressed me.
He's averaging 13 touches a game this year across plenty of games.
Maybe he just looks better to some being in a good team.

He's just not the type we need....to me..
Or, he is one of those team first players who contributes selflessly to a winning brand of footy. Doesn’t get noticed because they are a low possession side who don’t win much contested ball. They maul it forward and finish well. I wouldn’t judge him on possessions alone.

Newnes wasn’t the type we needed either.
 

FRUMPY

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Who are you wanting to chase? The top shelf player that would transform the team, I’m sure I’d be supportive.

Theres a big difference between a player being a top 5 player or simply best 22
I don't believe Merrett is available so you can choose anyone else.

I'd go Williams and play him mainly midfield

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DangerousD

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With players like Viney, Crouch and Williams available as free agents, I’m not sure why we would waste time with others like Wines, Saad, Merrett And Kelly.

Ask yourselves what’s better, getting Josh Kelly at around $1M and paying two first rounders with some change coming back
or
Paying Viney around $1M and taking pick 6 to the draft?

Paying Saad $550,000-$650,000 and trading a second and upgrading other picks
or
Paying Williams $850,000 and taking pock 6 to the draft?

The $$$$ amounts I’ve mentioned aren’t really relevant to my point, overpaying to secure a free agent in a bidding war allows us to keep our 1st round picks and even our 2nd rounders. So we may be overpaying a single player to get them in the door but we are also paying to keep our picks.

Williams and Viney are both very good players, they aren’t leaving to take a pay cut, so let’s make a bloody good offer, Crouch is a good player, a level below the other two, but why go after say a Graham and have to pay a 2nd and possibly more, when you can get Crouch, a better player for maybe $150,000 a season more.
 

Jimmae

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Anyway, onto the here and now, and assuming list sizes remain the same:

Retired: Simpson, Kreuzer
Potential retirements: Betts
Delist: Kennedy, O'Dwyer, Lang, Polson, Goddard (r), Cottrell (r)
Possible delist: Newman, Macreadie, Moore (r), F.Phillips (r)

Trade bait: Marchbank, JSOS, O'Brien, Casboult, Cuningham, Plowman, Fisher, SPS

Ideal FA/trade acquisitions: Williams, Crouch (subject to medical)

Ideal draft candidate: Will Phillips


Potential best 22, assuming Betts retires:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank Jones Williamson
HB: Docherty Weitering Williams
C: Walsh E.Curnow O'Brien
HF: Martin C.Curnow Fisher
FF: Kemp McKay Cuningham

R: TDK Cripps Crouch

Int: Setterfield, Murphy, W.Phillips, SPS

EMG:
Dow, Gibbons/Newnes, Casboult, JSOS/McGovern

Next 22:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank BSOS Newman
HB: ??? Macreadie ???
C: Newnes Philp Ramsay
HF: Honey McGovern Gibbons
FF: JSOS Casboult Owies

R: Pittonet Moore Dow

Int: Stocker, F.Phillips, ???, ???

This reveals our clearest needs at the draft beyond a premium mid: smaller defenders, forwards and mids. Players who can zip around the field and execute foot skills consistently. Of that shortlist, small forwards would be the least pressing, but if the draft order falls our way we should definitely snap up any talent.

The other obvious gap is that we probably need to bring in an athletic KPD to develop over time, in case Macreadie or BSOS never develop to replace Jones. KPF stocks also look a bit thin, but there's some flexibility due to TDK, Cripps and Kemp, alongside JSOS, Moore and McGovern, though Moore needs a lot of work.

Some might feel that Moore could solve the KPD issue, but I would honestly prefer to train him in the midfield group and see what he can produce. Get him lean and see what he can do throwing his weight around after training some stoppage reads all summer.
 

J-dog

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With players like Viney, Crouch and Williams available as free agents, I’m not sure why we would waste time with others like Wines, Saad, Merrett And Kelly.

Ask yourselves what’s better, getting Josh Kelly at around $1M and paying two first rounders with some change coming back
or
Paying Viney around $1M and taking pick 6 to the draft?

Paying Saad $550,000-$650,000 and trading a second and upgrading other picks
or
Paying Williams $850,000 and taking pock 6 to the draft?

The $$$$ amounts I’ve mentioned aren’t really relevant to my point, overpaying to secure a free agent in a bidding war allows us to keep our 1st round picks and even our 2nd rounders. So we may be overpaying a single player to get them in the door but we are also paying to keep our picks.

Williams and Viney are both very good players, they aren’t leaving to take a pay cut, so let’s make a bloody good offer, Crouch is a good player, a level below the other two, but why go after say a Graham and have to pay a 2nd and possibly more, when you can get Crouch, a better player for maybe $150,000 a season more.
Would be better to pay in picks this year, money in past years. We don't need the kids now, we need already developed jets.
Can only overpay with 1 or 2 players anyway. Cripps, Charlie, Martin, Weiters, McKay, Mcg and Murphy all on very good money you'd think.
 

Eiffel 65

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That entire draft was a sh*t show, and I think it's painfully clear at this point that SOS doesn't rate the ruck position for the most part. He also had two senior rucks and a development option in Phillips, all contracted.

Remember that talent ID was so terrible back then that everyone was keen on Whitfield and O'Rourke ahead of Macrae, Wines and Stringer. Even now, this is all that's left of the top 25: Whitfield, Stringer, Macrae, Wines, Mayes, Vlastuin, Daniher, Corr, Garner, Thurlow, Grundy, Broomhead. Less than half.

2012 was a draft class I didn't even really look at, but aside from Whitfield, I don't understand how so many of the names in that top 15 were coveted ahead of Grundy. That was a miss by basically the entire league, including us.

I think SOS was a huge upgrade on what we had prior, but I pointed out his flaws all the way along, and feel both he and Brodie went a bit too wild with certain picks along the way, but I still think there's more to be said for O'Brien and Dow's careers, though I would have gone in a different direction in terms of my own rankings, and also in terms of the role they were earmarked for.

SPS is our O'Rourke moment, but even then, he's still delivering far better. Most people learn from their mistakes, and it seems that SOS managed to over time.
Who would you have taken with pick 6 in the 2016 draft?
 

BigBreakfast

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Anyway, onto the here and now, and assuming list sizes remain the same:

Retired: Simpson, Kreuzer
Potential retirements: Betts
Delist: Kennedy, O'Dwyer, Lang, Polson, Goddard (r), Cottrell (r)
Possible delist: Newman, Macreadie, Moore (r), F.Phillips (r)

Trade bait: Marchbank, JSOS, O'Brien, Casboult, Cuningham, Plowman, Fisher, SPS

Ideal FA/trade acquisitions: Williams, Crouch (subject to medical)

Ideal draft candidate: Will Phillips


Potential best 22, assuming Betts retires:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank Jones Williamson
HB: Docherty Weitering Williams
C: Walsh E.Curnow O'Brien
HF: Martin C.Curnow Fisher
FF: Kemp McKay Cuningham

R: TDK Cripps Crouch

Int: Setterfield, Murphy, W.Phillips, SPS

EMG:
Dow, Gibbons/Newnes, Casboult, JSOS/McGovern

Next 22:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank BSOS Newman
HB: ??? Macreadie ???
C: Newnes Philp Ramsay
HF: Honey McGovern Gibbons
FF: JSOS Casboult Owies

R: Pittonet Moore Dow

Int: Stocker, F.Phillips, ???, ???

This reveals our clearest needs at the draft beyond a premium mid: smaller defenders, forwards and mids. Players who can zip around the field and execute foot skills consistently. Of that shortlist, small forwards would be the least pressing, but if the draft order falls our way we should definitely snap up any talent.

The other obvious gap is that we probably need to bring in an athletic KPD to develop over time, in case Macreadie or BSOS never develop to replace Jones. KPF stocks also look a bit thin, but there's some flexibility due to TDK, Cripps and Kemp, alongside JSOS, Moore and McGovern, though Moore needs a lot of work.

Some might feel that Moore could solve the KPD issue, but I would honestly prefer to train him in the midfield group and see what he can produce. Get him lean and see what he can do throwing his weight around after training some stoppage reads all summer.
Sorry J. When I saw your trade bait line, you lost me.
 

JustaBattler

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With players like Viney, Crouch and Williams available as free agents, I’m not sure why we would waste time with others like Wines, Saad, Merrett And Kelly.

Ask yourselves what’s better, getting Josh Kelly at around $1M and paying two first rounders with some change coming back
or
Paying Viney around $1M and taking pick 6 to the draft?

Paying Saad $550,000-$650,000 and trading a second and upgrading other picks
or
Paying Williams $850,000 and taking pock 6 to the draft?

The $$$$ amounts I’ve mentioned aren’t really relevant to my point, overpaying to secure a free agent in a bidding war allows us to keep our 1st round picks and even our 2nd rounders. So we may be overpaying a single player to get them in the door but we are also paying to keep our picks.

Williams and Viney are both very good players, they aren’t leaving to take a pay cut, so let’s make a bloody good offer, Crouch is a good player, a level below the other two, but why go after say a Graham and have to pay a 2nd and possibly more, when you can get Crouch, a better player for maybe $150,000 a season more.
Your logic is impeccable. Use the FA opportunity now that we are probably a credible place for them to come to - and keep draft picks for their proper use - replenishing developing youth stocks and building sustainable quality depth - which is what the whole system was intended to be used for.

This allows Carlton to develop a true developing depth in reserves - ala any really good Club does. We are currently nowhere near 'Club' competitiveness on a sustainable basis - because we don't have enough younger developing players actually being developed. In fact the #1 priority of the Club should be to field its own reserves team - just like the better AFL Clubs do already.
 

bigm386

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Anyway, onto the here and now, and assuming list sizes remain the same:

Retired: Simpson, Kreuzer
Potential retirements: Betts
Delist: Kennedy, O'Dwyer, Lang, Polson, Goddard (r), Cottrell (r)
Possible delist: Newman, Macreadie, Moore (r), F.Phillips (r)

Trade bait: Marchbank, JSOS, O'Brien, Casboult, Cuningham, Plowman, Fisher, SPS

Ideal FA/trade acquisitions: Williams, Crouch (subject to medical)

Ideal draft candidate: Will Phillips


Potential best 22, assuming Betts retires:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank Jones Williamson
HB: Docherty Weitering Williams
C: Walsh E.Curnow O'Brien
HF: Martin C.Curnow Fisher
FF: Kemp McKay Cuningham

R: TDK Cripps Crouch

Int: Setterfield, Murphy, W.Phillips, SPS

EMG:
Dow, Gibbons/Newnes, Casboult, JSOS/McGovern

Next 22:

FB: Plowman/Marchbank BSOS Newman
HB: ??? Macreadie ???
C: Newnes Philp Ramsay
HF: Honey McGovern Gibbons
FF: JSOS Casboult Owies

R: Pittonet Moore Dow

Int: Stocker, F.Phillips, ???, ???

This reveals our clearest needs at the draft beyond a premium mid: smaller defenders, forwards and mids. Players who can zip around the field and execute foot skills consistently. Of that shortlist, small forwards would be the least pressing, but if the draft order falls our way we should definitely snap up any talent.

The other obvious gap is that we probably need to bring in an athletic KPD to develop over time, in case Macreadie or BSOS never develop to replace Jones. KPF stocks also look a bit thin, but there's some flexibility due to TDK, Cripps and Kemp, alongside JSOS, Moore and McGovern, though Moore needs a lot of work.

Some might feel that Moore could solve the KPD issue, but I would honestly prefer to train him in the midfield group and see what he can produce. Get him lean and see what he can do throwing his weight around after training some stoppage reads all summer.
If we delisted Kennedy and kept Moore I'd expect the club to hand back the keys.
 

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