2020 Midpricers

Falchoon

Brownlow Medallist
Feb 15, 2002
28,376
8,322
Jackson-Steinem
AFL Club
St Kilda
Other Teams
Bluestar Airlines, Anacott Steel
Petracca is going to be my 2019 Dunkley.

Will start off playing a forward role banging out 80's, will get unleashed in the midfield and start averaging 110.

Everyone will laugh at me first, then I'll become a genius.

Petracca's heat map is the boundary line.
 

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Loose at HB

All Australian
Apr 20, 2018
964
3,585
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
If wingard plays predominantly fwd, is he still likely to avg 90+ for a keeper? Or does he need mid action to be worth starting?
Needs solid mid time at worst - the appeal for most regarding him in the role he played in the back half of last year. If the return of Titch puts him at permanent HF I'd be significantly less interested. 35/65 split mid-fwd would be the absolute worst I'd take
 

Ash1337

All Australian
Apr 11, 2009
798
582
Albany
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
I seriously dont think Wingard average anymore than he previously did. So around 90 avg. He's listed as on the Wing for tomorrow and Wingers rarely avg above 90 either.
 

Ash1337

All Australian
Apr 11, 2009
798
582
Albany
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
That's a bit of a Gaff.
Players like Gaff, are accumulators, work themselves into space and run hard both ways. Wingard doesn't have in his game. He's often called lazy because he doesn't run defensively enough and I dont think he'll do so ever. He's just not that kind of player. He's more the Billings type.
 

Unknown Identity

Professional Strawman
Oct 7, 2009
16,818
24,905
AFL Club
Collingwood
Other Teams
Dallas Cowboys Chicago Bulls
I seriously dont think Wingard average anymore than he previously did. So around 90 avg. He's listed as on the Wing for tomorrow and Wingers rarely avg above 90 either.
The traditional wingman doesn't really exist outside a couple of players.

Plenty of top tier SC mids find themselves on the wing for portions of the game.

Ricky Henderson did average 94 as a wingman last season.
In saying that i can't see Wingard stealing too much time off Henderson and Isaac Smith.

Wingard to be a relevant pick needs centre bounce minutes.
 

Blackhawk42

Premiership Player
Feb 5, 2018
3,749
6,249
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Other Teams
Chicago Blackhawks Melb Renegades
Wingard to be a relevant pick needs centre bounce minutes.
He should be getting those minutes. We suddenly have midfield depth and some full pre-seasons to important players. Part of the charm of our 3peat was the 'everyone gets a chance to play midfield' philosophy. It appears as though a return to that is on the cards and Chad should see himself in there pretty often.

The more I think about it (and crazier I get), the more keen I am to putt big Ceglar on my watchlist. Currently it looks like he'll be the number 1 ruck with Big Boy playing defence. The FWD/RUCK swing is enticing for a bloke his price if he performs early. Last 3 games last year when the experiment started netted him scores of 110, 83 and 94.
 

Deliverance

Norm Smith Medallist
Jun 19, 2011
7,645
11,132
MCG
AFL Club
Hawthorn
Players like Gaff, are accumulators, work themselves into space and run hard both ways. Wingard doesn't have in his game. He's often called lazy because he doesn't run defensively enough and I dont think he'll do so ever. He's just not that kind of player. He's more the Billings type.
Hawks don't allow that laziness. He was sublime at times in the back half of last year playing on ball. I think he will improve on last year. 92-97 my prediction. The only thing keeping him under 100ppg are his skills as a forward, so won't be in the guts as much as us SCs would like him to be.
 

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Mofra

Moderator
Dec 6, 2005
46,052
120,575
Footscray
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Footscray, The Exers
The more I think about it (and crazier I get), the more keen I am to putt big Ceglar on my watchlist. Currently it looks like he'll be the number 1 ruck with Big Boy playing defence. The FWD/RUCK swing is enticing for a bloke his price if he performs early. Last 3 games last year when the experiment started netted him scores of 110, 83 and 94.
It's not a bad strategy. With a FWD/RUCK on the bench at R3 you could feasibly play Jacobs and swing Ceglar into the ruck when Jacobs gets "managed"
 

Here2tellyouwhy

SA GREAT
Sep 3, 2005
29,054
75,819
Adelaide
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
West Coast Eagles
It's not a bad strategy. With a FWD/RUCK on the bench at R3 you could feasibly play Jacobs and swing Ceglar into the ruck when Jacobs gets "managed"
I just did this to my team and dont mind it. Jacobs and Ceglar hey.

Im sooo gonna spend another 10 trades on Rucks again this year :moustache:
 

Mt Isa Mustang

All Australian
Nov 23, 2019
851
969
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Disagree with the notion that if you pick Lynch you are riding him to the end.
I've got him in my team at the moment.

If he comes out of the blocks averaging 110 for the first 8 rounds and reaches 550K and Heeney comes out slow averaging 85 and drops to 420k - I'd definitely go Lynch > Heeney to the fund a Rowell > Premo mid trade.
 

JDWCE

Premiership Player
Mar 30, 2009
3,188
3,026
Perth
AFL Club
West Coast
Other Teams
Liverpool
Disagree with the notion that if you pick Lynch you are riding him to the end.
I've got him in my team at the moment.

If he comes out of the blocks averaging 110 for the first 8 rounds and reaches 550K and Heeney comes out slow averaging 85 and drops to 420k - I'd definitely go Lynch > Heeney to the fund a Rowell > Premo mid trade.
The problem is choosing the right time to make that call. If a bloke is sitting in your forward line smashing out a 100-odd average, then it's gonna be pretty bloody hard moving him on to someone who's under performing
 

Loose at HB

All Australian
Apr 20, 2018
964
3,585
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
Disagree with the notion that if you pick Lynch you are riding him to the end.
I've got him in my team at the moment.

If he comes out of the blocks averaging 110 for the first 8 rounds and reaches 550K and Heeney comes out slow averaging 85 and drops to 420k - I'd definitely go Lynch > Heeney to the fund a Rowell > Premo mid trade.
Disagree strongly with this tbh. Rowell is probably a keep-til-bye proposition ala Walsh last year, surely there will be other rookies burning out by R8 and tbh if Lynch is averaging 110 at R8 he’s in all likelihood the highest averaging forward in the game. Can’t see why you’d drop him for an underperforming Heeney (or similar) at that point while also dropping potentially the most reliable rookie we’re going to get this year. Reads to me like 2 wasted trades tbh
 

toxic

Hall of Famer
May 9, 2008
37,893
50,204
GONE
AFL Club
Collingwood
Disagree strongly with this tbh. Rowell is probably a keep-til-bye proposition ala Walsh last year, surely there will be other rookies burning out by R8 and tbh if Lynch is averaging 110 at R8 he’s in all likelihood the highest averaging forward in the game. Can’t see why you’d drop him for an underperforming Heeney (or similar) at that point while also dropping potentially the most reliable rookie we’re going to get this year. Reads to me like 2 wasted trades tbh
Known as the Travis Cloke move.
50k says it was worthwhile, so whilst unconventional it has worked before
 

Mt Isa Mustang

All Australian
Nov 23, 2019
851
969
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Disagree strongly with this tbh. Rowell is probably a keep-til-bye proposition ala Walsh last year, surely there will be other rookies burning out by R8 and tbh if Lynch is averaging 110 at R8 he’s in all likelihood the highest averaging forward in the game. Can’t see why you’d drop him for an underperforming Heeney (or similar) at that point while also dropping potentially the most reliable rookie we’re going to get this year. Reads to me like 2 wasted trades tbh
The Rowell part was just to illustrate that you could upgrade any rookie that had maxed out. Just picked Rowell as an example.

Key forwards are always going to go in cycles. IF one starts off hot, doesn't mean they will continue that way for remainder of the year

2019 Darling averaging 101 for the last 9 rounds and ~70 for first 14 rounds
2018 Darling averaged 100 for first 11 rounds (including injured game he scored 14) and averaged 65 for last 7 games after returning from injury
2016 Lynch averaged 100 for first 7 rounds and 76 for last 12 rounds
2019 Hawkins averaged 98 first 12 rounds, 71 for the final 10 rounds
2019 Cameron averaged 108 first 7 rounds or 99 first 11 rounds and then 83 for the final 13 rounds.

Lynch could easily average 110 for 8 weeks but very unlikely to sustain. IMO much more likely to average 85 for the remainder of the year and finish with an overall average ~95 in line with other tall forwards over the past few years.

Heeney has shown his floor with an average ~95.
If he has a slow start to the season, I'd have my money on him picking it up at the back end.
2018 he averaged 107 in the first half of the year, 80 in the second half of the year (88 if you remove an injury affected game).
2019 he averaged 90 first half of the year and 96 second half of the year.

It would definitely take the right circumstance + a bit of luck.

But I would be happy to spend 2 trades to get
- A player that averages 15 points more over 14 rounds (Heeney 100, Lynch 85) = 210 points
- + an upgrade from a maxed rookie to a fallen premo (eg. 80 average > 105 average) over 14 rounds = 350 points.
 

Loose at HB

All Australian
Apr 20, 2018
964
3,585
Melbourne
AFL Club
Carlton
The Rowell part was just to illustrate that you could upgrade any rookie that had maxed out. Just picked Rowell as an example.

Key forwards are always going to go in cycles. IF one starts off hot, doesn't mean they will continue that way for remainder of the year

2019 Darling averaging 101 for the last 9 rounds and ~70 for first 14 rounds
2018 Darling averaged 100 for first 11 rounds (including injured game he scored 14) and averaged 65 for last 7 games after returning from injury
2016 Lynch averaged 100 for first 7 rounds and 76 for last 12 rounds
2019 Hawkins averaged 98 first 12 rounds, 71 for the final 10 rounds
2019 Cameron averaged 108 first 7 rounds or 99 first 11 rounds and then 83 for the final 13 rounds.

Lynch could easily average 110 for 8 weeks but very unlikely to sustain. IMO much more likely to average 85 for the remainder of the year and finish with an overall average ~95 in line with other tall forwards over the past few years.

Heeney has shown his floor with an average ~95.
If he has a slow start to the season, I'd have my money on him picking it up at the back end.
2018 he averaged 107 in the first half of the year, 80 in the second half of the year (88 if you remove an injury affected game).
2019 he averaged 90 first half of the year and 96 second half of the year.

It would definitely take the right circumstance + a bit of luck.

But I would be happy to spend 2 trades to get
- A player that averages 15 points more over 14 rounds (Heeney 100, Lynch 85) = 210 points
- + an upgrade from a maxed rookie to a fallen premo (eg. 80 average > 105 average) over 14 rounds = 350 points.
Solid post my friend - you make some valid points.
TBH though for me the situation requires way too many variables for it to work out your way. You need;
1) To start with KPF and have them go off
2) To have potential premo fwd start slow
3) To have rookie max out at just the right time
4) Have KPF fall off a cliff after you trade them out
5) Fallen premo to return to form

We kind of always need about 3 of those variables when making most decisions and tbh there is a huge amount of luck in this game but adding 2 other “maybes” to a situation just seems to really out-balance the risk reward in my eyes. The numbers you put at the end of your post are interesting and if it turns out like that it looks amazing in isolation but I always view trades in the context of a season - if Lynch doesn’t fully fall off or Rowell averages 90 up to his bye there are probably other, more trade/$$$ efficient ways to go about things.

In saying that I respect the different opinion and way of looking at it. It’s always interesting to see how others play the game :)
 

4tune8

Premiership Player
Jul 31, 2017
3,337
6,492
AFL Club
Richmond
Solid post my friend - you make some valid points.
TBH though for me the situation requires way too many variables for it to work out your way. You need;
1) To start with KPF and have them go off
2) To have potential premo fwd start slow
3) To have rookie max out at just the right time
4) Have KPF fall off a cliff after you trade them out
5) Fallen premo to return to form

We kind of always need about 3 of those variables when making most decisions and tbh there is a huge amount of luck in this game but adding 2 other “maybes” to a situation just seems to really out-balance the risk reward in my eyes. The numbers you put at the end of your post are interesting and if it turns out like that it looks amazing in isolation but I always view trades in the context of a season - if Lynch doesn’t fully fall off or Rowell averages 90 up to his bye there are probably other, more trade/$$$ efficient ways to go about things.

In saying that I respect the different opinion and way of looking at it. It’s always interesting to see how others play the game :)
There's a few things though that push those 5 points to an above average outcome

1) Lynch has 10 out of the first 13 games at the G and is coming off a full pre-season
2) Heeney has had an injury worry (albeit a broken thumb) and is highly likely to spend time forward at least til Buddy regains match fitness.
3) There would be quite a few rookies that might max out around that time, but they don't have to max out to make the move work
4) The KPF doesn't have to 'fall off a cliff' he's just being cashed out like a rookie
5) Once Buddy is (if) back then the logical thought would be that Heeney get's more mid time. Thing is though that it doesn't have to be just Heeney as the target, it could be any number of other players that might have shown a role change.

The reality is that Heeney is a classic upgrade target, he wont go up in price much, in all likelihood he'll drop in price

Lynch is cheap, has shown solid form since the byes last year and even better when JR8 came back in, plus has a full pre-season. Definitely worth a gamble IMO.
 

Mt Isa Mustang

All Australian
Nov 23, 2019
851
969
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Solid post my friend - you make some valid points.
TBH though for me the situation requires way too many variables for it to work out your way. You need;
1) To start with KPF and have them go off
2) To have potential premo fwd start slow
3) To have rookie max out at just the right time
4) Have KPF fall off a cliff after you trade them out
5) Fallen premo to return to form

We kind of always need about 3 of those variables when making most decisions and tbh there is a huge amount of luck in this game but adding 2 other “maybes” to a situation just seems to really out-balance the risk reward in my eyes. The numbers you put at the end of your post are interesting and if it turns out like that it looks amazing in isolation but I always view trades in the context of a season - if Lynch doesn’t fully fall off or Rowell averages 90 up to his bye there are probably other, more trade/$$$ efficient ways to go about things.

In saying that I respect the different opinion and way of looking at it. It’s always interesting to see how others play the game :)
Just think that you have to be prepared to jump off mid-pricers who have scored well and gained value if you can get someone who you project will score at least 200 more points across the course of the season.
 

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