Analysis 2020 Onwards - Where to from here?

[gouki88]

2020 onwards from my view.

We still have a core group that’s young enough to be good again

Backs - Crisp, Maynard, Moore, Howe
Mids - Pendles, Adams, Sidebottom, Degoey, Treloar (questionable)
Forwards WHE, Stephenson, Miocheck, Elliot

I’m not saying all are superstars or even will reach decent form again but it’s not complete panic stations.

We need a decent trading period.

Required - Key Forward, Skilled mid, Role players to replace Mayne and Varcoe.


At the moment we have to many passengers who just turn the ball over.

Yeah, I too like our core going forward. I think we have some young players coming up like Josh Daicos and IQ who slot nicely into our core groups. Add in Reef McInnes, a strong big midfielder who can go forward, and Nick Daicos (who sounds like a star), and we're getting somewhere. If we can move up to a better 1st round pick this year (or we bottom out on the ladder, lol) then I really hope we go after one of the big forwards. I think some of our younger guys like the Brown brothers, Ruscoe, Bianco & Rantall can push out the Mayne & Varcoe types.

If we can revert back to a 2018-like gameplan I love it. We have to ditch this overusing handball-heavy gamestyle

 

[Matt_352]

Fairy tales don’t happen at Collingwood, they need miracles – The Roar

www.google.com

So sad, so true. Nail on head.

 

[Doc1763]

Fairy tales don’t happen at Collingwood, they need miracles – The Roar

www.google.com

So sad, so true. Nail on head.

Unfortunately, a very accurate article.

Wonder how the "rose coloured glasses" brigade will respond.

 

[jathanas]

Unfortunately, a very accurate article.

Wonder how the "rose coloured glasses" brigade will respond.

I like to consider myself as relatively impartial. "Accurate" is subjective unless we are talking hard facts. This article also carries opinions that we will all agree/disagree with to some extent. IMO:

Accurate in the article:
- 15 GF wins for 27 losses.
- Our recruiting misses.
- Identifying that for the most part our style of play since 2012 hasnt been as fluid as it was in '18/'19.

Opinion:
- Getting to a GF isn't much of an accomplishment.
- That we need a miracle to turn things around.

It's a bit dramatic/emotional IMO.

 

[Hardas]

I think most would agree that the other best-performed teams in recent seasons have been Richmond, West Coast and GWS.

Since the beginning of 2018, so virtually three seasons at this point, our record against these teams has been really awful.

So we've 'beaten the teams we should' as they say, but consistently struggled against the very best. You can be stiff here or there, like in 2018, but that's not consistently unlucky, is it?

 

[loki04]

I like to consider myself as relatively impartial. "Accurate" is subjective unless we are talking hard facts. This article also carries opinions that we will all agree/disagree with to some extent. IMO:

Accurate in the article:
- 15 GF wins for 27 losses.
- Our recruiting misses.
- Identifying that for the most part our style of play since 2012 hasnt been as fluid as it was in '18/'19.

Opinion:
- Getting to a GF isn't much of an accomplishment.
- That we need a miracle to turn things around.

It's a bit dramatic/emotional IMO.

I think you have a very positive outlook on 2019 purely due to making the PF.

We played putrid footy that season.

2018 is the really only year that we played a complete brand with a mix of defensive intent and quality attacking systems.

Somewhere through 2018 finals a few teams seemed to have a answer to restrict us after quarter time (barring richmond), WC being one of them. Imo more of those teams started working it out in 19 and then we have made adjustments further went down the defense first approach and compounded the problems.

 

[stormskye]

We really need to move on from 2018, and 2019 despite making the PF we were very patchy.

this year we are a shambles, lack any ability to score, lack a KPF, pace on the wing, genuine crumber and support for Adams. The same 6-8 players give their all, and improvement? noble, daicos, madge, Iq, ummmm.. that’s about it.

gone backwards Phillips, Thomas, whe, Elliot, Stevo. Which are mostly all forwards.
Brown was and is never going to make it. He’s a kid, I just don’t see it though. Doesn’t have enough talent. Tries hard.
In 2021 with Howe, degoey, Treloar back yes we are a better side. But we still have a lot of passengers in the team.

Hopefully sier, iq, kelly, ruscoe improve. I want to see Murphy, Bianca, Rantall and Applebee get a crack at it.


we have a lot of work to do, would sit in the best 8-10 teams and will likely finish there.

We are winning important stats during games still, inside 50’s, contested, Hit outs, so all is no lost. But, between gameplay/setup and missing some cogs, we have work to do.

saints addressed their holes and have improved, port as well. Let’s hope we can, that said, we need new midfield and forward coaches

 

[loki04]

We really need to move on from 2018, and 2019 despite making the PF we were very patchy.

this year we are a shambles, lack any ability to score, lack a KPF, pace on the wing, genuine crumber and support for Adams.

we have a lot of work to do, would sit in the best 8-10 teams and will likely finish there.

We are winning important stats during games still, inside 50’s, contested, Hit outs, so all is no lost. But, between gameplay/setup and missing some cogs, we have work to do.

But look at the quality of those stats, they are all generally poor entries, or hit outs to no advantage or at his feet where he can be sharked or shut down, clearances are usually scrappy too.

it's one thing to say you are winning them but without context of what happens WITH those wins it is a bit of a red herring.

 

[stormskye]

But look at the quality of those stats, they are all generally poor entries, or hit outs to no advantage or at his feet where he can be sharked or shut down, clearances are usually scrappy too.

it's one thing to say you are winning them but without context of what happens WITH those wins it is a bit of a red herring.

True. That said as a general rule if you win contested, inside 50 etc you wouldn’t expect to be getting pumped by 10 goals, they are usually decent yardsticks to base a game off. The fact we still win the ball, get it forward but cannot score, def points to setup issues...

 

[The Royal Sampler]

I think most would agree that the other best-performed teams in recent seasons have been Richmond, West Coast and GWS.

Since the beginning of 2018, so virtually three seasons at this point, our record against these teams has been really awful.

So we've 'beaten the teams we should' as they say, but consistently struggled against the very best. You can be stiff here or there, like in 2018, but that's not consistently unlucky, is it?

I think that conveniently excludes Geelong, who finished top of the ladder last year and are performing very well again this year, whom we’ve managed to beat fairly regularly.

Possibly overstates the case against GWS too, as we beat them in finals in 2018, and have since had one bad loss and two losses of less than a goal which could easily have gone either way.

WCE have undoubtedly had our measure, and yet we should have won the GF in 2018 and we did beat them in Perth last year. So again, “really awful” is an overstatement.

 

[Roverjg]

I am curious as to how many people think our issues are:
1. Injuries
2. Game Plan
3. Playing List
4. Coach
5. other

As you will remember our playing list was decimated by injury in 2018 with over 170 games lost to our established senior players. Dunn and Scharenberg both did knees within weeks of each other and we need Howe to play FB. Our injuries were decidedly worse in 2018. However, we had an attacking game plan.
Players missing in action:
Wells 22 games
Moore 19 games
Reid 20 games
Dunn 12 games
Aish 13 games
Scharenberg 9 games
De Goey 5 games
Mayne 5 games
Howe 5 games
Treloar 9 games
Langdon 5 games
Adams 3 games
Varcoe 6 games
Greenwood 10 games
Elliott 26 games

 

[Robroy22]

I am curious as to how many people think our issues are:
1. Injuries
2. Game Plan
3. Playing List
4. Coach
5. other

As you will remember our playing list was decimated by injury in 2018 with over 170 games lost to our established senior players. Dunn and Scharenberg both did knees within weeks of each other and we need Howe to play FB. Our injuries were decidedly worse in 2018. However, we had an attacking game plan.
Players missing in action:
Wells 22 games
Moore 19 games
Reid 20 games
Dunn 12 games
Aish 13 games
Scharenberg 9 games
De Goey 5 games
Mayne 5 games
Howe 5 games
Treloar 9 games
Langdon 5 games
Adams 3 games
Varcoe 6 games
Greenwood 10 games
Elliott 26 games

For me it's Game plan and therefore coach, then the list and then the injuries

 

[stormskye]

I am curious as to how many people think our issues are:
1. Injuries
2. Game Plan
3. Playing List
4. Coach
5. other

As you will remember our playing list was decimated by injury in 2018 with over 170 games lost to our established senior players. Dunn and Scharenberg both did knees within weeks of each other and we need Howe to play FB. Our injuries were decidedly worse in 2018. However, we had an attacking game plan.
Players missing in action:
Wells 22 games
Moore 19 games
Reid 20 games
Dunn 12 games
Aish 13 games
Scharenberg 9 games
De Goey 5 games
Mayne 5 games
Howe 5 games
Treloar 9 games
Langdon 5 games
Adams 3 games
Varcoe 6 games
Greenwood 10 games
Elliott 26 games

1. Gameplan- we push up to high, overuse the ball by hand, won’t kick long to contests. We are winning enough important stats, but our inside 50’s are just, inexcusably bad between entries and just lack of space.
2. Injuries/form- injuries to degoey, Howe and treloar have hurt, best defender, best forward and much needed pace. That said, how many players had break out years in 2018, and are just horrible this year, notably our forwards. BUT this to me still falls back to 1. Gameplan. Elliot and Stevo continually played out of position etc.

3. We really do lack that get out of jail kick. Cameron May improve, but without genuine star KPF we don’t have the confidence to kick long, which leads back to 1. Even watching goldy v rich as an example, both had Day and lynch/Riewoldt pushing up the ground for the get out kick from half back up the ground.

woukd we have beaten eagles or melb with Howe, degoey, and treloar? I don’t know, we were destroyed in both games everywhere

 

[Hardas]

I think that conveniently excludes Geelong, who finished top of the ladder last year and are performing very well again this year, whom we’ve managed to beat fairly regularly.

Possibly overstates the case against GWS too, as we beat them in finals in 2018, and have since had one bad loss and two losses of less than a goal which could easily have gone either way.

WCE have undoubtedly had our measure, and yet we should have won the GF in 2018 and we did beat them in Perth last year. So again, “really awful” is an overstatement.

It's fair enough to include Geelong, although our record against them in this period is just 2 - 2 anyway, so it doesn't shift the needle all that much.

That brings our collective record against those 4 teams to 6 wins, 1 draw and 13 losses since the beginning of 2018. That does include two close losses to GWS but also one close win over them.

I don't mean this to sound like a smart@*%, but if not really awful, then what? Unlucky? Certainly hard to think of it as especially successful.

Predictable maybe? Most of us think we were pretty stiff in the 2018 GF, but given our 1- 4 record against them in this period, maybe we were lucky to stay so close. I mean once they finally got rolling, we didn't really wrest the midfield momentum back at any point.

I think it's the capacity of top-level midfields to dominate us that causes us so many problems. Teams with big strong athletes with good kicking skills, or fast elusive ones with same, tend to get a lot of quality I50's from the centre breaks against us, while our usual mids generally lack at least one of these key ingredients for good quality forward entries.

I admit that it's hard for me to be objective as I guess I'm just worn down from the many, many different ways we have not succeeded (particularly in grand finals in my lifetime: 2 wins, 2 draws and 12 losses, for the record).

Anyway, what were we talking about again?

(Stares into the distance blankly, mumbles to self and stumbles off stage).

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

You never see people say "That top of the ladder side has a terrible game plan and a great list"

Or "that bottom of the ladder side has a sensational gameplan but a rubbish list"".

Game plan analysis is overrated. Its a small factor that is a function of other variables, the most important three factors being whether the list

1. is good enough across all areas on the field,
2. bats deep enough to cover injuries (senior and youth depth)
3. is playing to its abilities (which is a combination of form, motivation, coping with off field distractions, and to a lesser extent the ability to execute the game plan)

Collingwoods main problem is its weak forward line and to a lesser extent a bit of a one dimensional midfield...and lack of depth to cover that weakness when we struggle with injuries

 

[No SPIN]

Unfortunately, a very accurate article.

Wonder how the "rose coloured glasses" brigade will respond.

There’s nothing new or different to the arguments already discussed here.

No serious analyst would dismiss recent success as off handedly and thereby implying that Top4 PF and GF spots are given away.

And, when an article starts talking about ratio of GF wins to losses - as if 100 years of history can be over turned around, then you know they are scrapping the bottom of the barrel.

It’s the taunt to be used by rival supporters not a serious analyst.

 

[No SPIN]

I am curious as to how many people think our issues are:
1. Injuries
2. Game Plan
3. Playing List
4. Coach
5. other

As you will remember our playing list was decimated by injury in 2018 with over 170 games lost to our established senior players. Dunn and Scharenberg both did knees within weeks of each other and we need Howe to play FB. Our injuries were decidedly worse in 2018. However, we had an attacking game plan.
Players missing in action:
Wells 22 games
Moore 19 games
Reid 20 games
Dunn 12 games
Aish 13 games
Scharenberg 9 games
De Goey 5 games
Mayne 5 games
Howe 5 games
Treloar 9 games
Langdon 5 games
Adams 3 games
Varcoe 6 games
Greenwood 10 games
Elliott 26 games

Injuries - clearly number 1. Loss of key high quality players impacts confidence of team mates, undermines execution of the game plan. It's no coincidence that all teams lose competitiveness and results suffer when their best players are missing. Last year Rich looked done early in the year with some of their supporters even conceding they couldn't make finals.
Everything else on your list then gets questioned once losses due to injury mount.

 

[jathanas]

Injuries - clearly number 1. Loss of key high quality players impacts confidence of team mates, undermines execution of the game plan. It's no coincidence that all teams lose competitiveness and results suffer when their best players are missing. Last year Rich looked done early in the year with some of their supporters even conceding they couldn't make finals.
Everything else on your list then gets questioned once losses due to injury mount.

Injuries (and unavailability due to stupidity) to key personnel have affected continuity which in turn has impacted confidence in our structures.

Last year Richmond were able to pick themselves up and get winning after they got players back. I have low confidence that this would be the case with us, even if we somehow miraculously got JDG and Howe back. Something feels off.

 

[No SPIN]

Injuries (and unavailability due to stupidity) to key personnel have affected continuity which in turn has impacted confidence in our structures.

Last year Richmond were able to pick themselves up and get winning after they got players back. I have low confidence that this would be the case with us, even if we somehow miraculously got JDG and Howe back. Something feels off.

you have made the point on several occasions that “something feels off”.
What do you mean?

 

[jathanas]

you have made the point on several occasions that “something feels off”.
What do you mean?

Good question.

The lack of connection between Grundy and the midfielders, the lack of "flow" in our plays, the lack of willingness that players have to take a risk and their lack of improvement, our wastefulness e.g. our conversion ratio of inside 50s to goals.

We're low on confidence, wasteful, and out of form as a team.

As an aside and purely from a fan's perspective we're awful to watch.

 

[TradeDraft]

Fairy tales don’t happen at Collingwood, they need miracles – The Roar

www.google.com

So sad, so true. Nail on head.

So Going by That we should just play the Kids IF we need a Miracle to make Finals.

Play the Kids and see what they do and not guys who might not even be on our list next year

 

[No SPIN]

Good question.

The lack of connection between Grundy and the midfielders, the lack of "flow" in our plays, the lack of willingness that players have to take a risk and their lack of improvement, our wastefulness e.g. our conversion ratio of inside 50s to goals.

We're low on confidence, wasteful, and out of form as a team.

As an aside and purely from a fan's perspective we're awful to watch.

Yes agree - I feared you were going suggest there was something deeper going on, unrelated to on field performance.

 

[stormskye]

Injuries (and unavailability due to stupidity) to key personnel have affected continuity which in turn has impacted confidence in our structures.

Last year Richmond were able to pick themselves up and get winning after they got players back. I have low confidence that this would be the case with us, even if we somehow miraculously got JDG and Howe back. Something feels off.

We are literally melb of 2019. I remember watching them, they had poor disposal, and were putid inside 50, they got it there plenty but couldn’t score

 

[OniAu]

we dont need to go a full reset. However we need to hit the draft and build our own prospects for positions we severely lack in. instead of hoping for a big fish and missing.

Move on the deadwood that wont offer anything in two years to come - Mayne, Varcoe, Thomas , Broomhead , Reid , Dunne

Trade out some pieces we have excess of or can replace that have some form of currency. Elliot, Phillips ( cant think of any others!!!!!)

We are as stagnant in the off season as we are on the field currently.

Stop trading first rounders unless its an absolute steal , play hard ball.

Stop with the project players. Get some actual footballers in the club

 

[Aussie pie]

I’m wondering if it’s worth throwing Paddy McCartin a rookie spot for 2021. Why not, as long as we get rid of Beams off the list I think at a low level rookie list it can’t hurt. Only of course if he is cleared and he is sure of the risks.