Strategy 2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

FlowersByIrene

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What’s considered a rookie though? Is Townsend a rookie? Or a super cheap mid pricer given he’s had AFL experience? Likewise what bracket Do Bonar and Jones fall into?
Ive got 5 categories

Premiums (players you think are premiums, generally 650k+)
Under Priced Premiums (550k +, but assuming they can be a premium)
Mid Pricers (400k-550k, unless you think they can be a premium)
Expensive Rookies (300k-400k)
Rookies (300k or less)

With premiums it obviously depends on the position as well
 

DynamiteDons

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Is Blakely someone to consider. Super cheap, yesterday played in midfield in Freo Intra-club and is looking the fittest I’ve seen him in a number of seasons.

Will probably be a Marsh watch, but if fit and in mid, got to be seriously considered? thoughts?
 

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Sloane4brownlow

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I really think RO'B is going to push close to averaging the same as Gawn come season's end (maybe 5pts off) so if it is an upgrade it is a luxury one and a low priority, plus if he goes down injured it isn't going to be hard to find the cash to grab Gawn if needed.
With the lack of forwards I really think Wingard will be close to top 6 and Brayshaw top 10 which is fine as a F6 towards the end of the season if your strengths lie in the other lines and therefore becomes another luxury trade if you've managed to dodge injuries
Brayshaw top 10? Ambitious.
 

Sloane4brownlow

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Is Blakely someone to consider. Super cheap, yesterday played in midfield in Freo Intra-club and is looking the fittest I’ve seen him in a number of seasons.

Will probably be a Marsh watch, but if fit and in mid, got to be seriously considered? thoughts?
Blakely amoung my first selected back on drawingboard!
- Contract year.
- freo need wise heads in the midfield with hill and langdon gone. Mundy aging.
- freo already has good depth in decense. Young slots straight in.

Everything points to Blakely in the guts this year. If Marsh confirms it he's locked and loaded for 90+ avg.
 

VSTone

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Sloane4brownlow

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Sloane4brownlow

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Just on the mid price vs pure guns and rooks.

This is the most convoluted year for this discussion. Only time will tell which is correct. Traditionally its guns n rooks. I have a sneaky suspicion though this year will be different. Because:

- Guys like doch, tichtell, roberton etc are gifts (if playing R1) and frees up boatloads of cash to play with. This inevitably gives you the option to reduce the number of rooks on field.
- R4 is now an extra cash cow. The big negative in selecting too many mid pricers is lack of cash gen. This is no longer an issue.
- Forwardline is shot anyway. Hard to pick a premo there. Similarly in defense there arent really any uber premos screaming pick me.

I think theres merit in picking players like a stock market. Anything thatll see green is worth considering with the wealth of trades we get now.
 

Zevon

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Is Blakely someone to consider. Super cheap, yesterday played in midfield in Freo Intra-club and is looking the fittest I’ve seen him in a number of seasons.

Will probably be a Marsh watch, but if fit and in mid, got to be seriously considered? thoughts?
Blakely amoung my first selected back on drawingboard!
- Contract year.
- freo need wise heads in the midfield with hill and langdon gone. Mundy aging.
- freo already has good depth in decense. Young slots straight in.

Everything points to Blakely in the guts this year. If Marsh confirms it he's locked and loaded for 90+ avg.
My structure in defence is to fill D1-D3 with those $500-$600k midpricers that I see being potential top 6 players in the position (or at worst top 10 or so). Currently Houston and Docherty are locks so for me that leaves Blakely, Withderden and Clark competing for the D3 spot.

Clark would be a gamble because I’d be relying on him improving into a 90+ player. Good chance of that but plenty of risk involved and the St Kilda setup is a bit of a mystery at the minute. Witherden would need to bounce back from a shocking season last year... Hodge leaving helps but Birchall arriving kind of neutralises that. So again, risk involved. Blakely is the one I am most confident will have the role and average 90+ but the biggest turn off for me at the moment is his durability. A season best of 17 games... yuck. Leads to all sorts of headaches when you’ve got a player like that.

Not really sure which way I’ll go yet.
 

Cotchy9

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My structure in defence is to fill D1-D3 with those $500-$600k midpricers that I see being potential top 6 players in the position (or at worst top 10 or so). Currently Houston and Docherty are locks so for me that leaves Blakely, Withderden and Clark competing for the D3 spot.

Clark would be a gamble because I’d be relying on him improving into a 90+ player. Good chance of that but plenty of risk involved and the St Kilda setup is a bit of a mystery at the minute. Witherden would need to bounce back from a shocking season last year... Hodge leaving helps but Birchall arriving kind of neutralises that. So again, risk involved. Blakely is the one I am most confident will have the role and average 90+ but the biggest turn off for me at the moment is his durability. A season best of 17 games... yuck. Leads to all sorts of headaches when you’ve got a player like that.

Not really sure which way I’ll go yet.
I really like Clark. Went 70+ in all of his last 10 games. Averaging high 80’s during that period. 3rd year coming up. Will get a nice half back/mid role. Big junior numbers
 

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Cotchy9

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Discounting new DPP's throughout the year because we don't know who gets them yet who would you rate the top 10 now and how far is Andy Bray off that?
Looks like you need about an 87-88 average to make it as a top 10 forward, and about 92 + to get top 6. So wouldn’t be much different at all between say the 10th and 6th best forward. I see Brayshaw around 82-86
 

happy_eagle

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Great write up.

The lack of confidence in Lycett seems to continue... ROB or Gawn emerging as the only real two options for R2!

Houston sounds like a gem.
How much of ROB's involvement in the play last year was a result of a Pyke specific gameplan ? (they went to ROB a lot as a marking target)
That on top of only half a season of exposed form has me worried about ROB, especially at his price. Reckon it might be better to hang around a cheaper option until a clear R2 establishes themselves.
 

Quokka

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Brayshaw top 10? Ambitious.

Definitely ambitious but not out of the question, training and the latest scratchy showing he is maturing and aiming to be a big part of Fremantle's midfield. I won't be surprised if he only improves to 75-80 and quickly becomes an upgrade priority but I also don't think 90 is out of the question which likely puts him there abouts top 10 (fwd). He's in my side atm but I'll be watching the preseason with an eye to switching him out if I'm not convinced.

I'm not at all convinced Blakely is going to improve much on a 75 average or be better value then other options around the same price. Injuries may keep him in defence and there's competition for the midfield, he'll be in rotations but not sure he'll be primarily mid. I could be completely wrong on him though and another that it's all about seeing where Longmuir plays him in the preseason.

Sturt and Valente are two rookies that should be on watchlists, no more than that but both 2018 recruits that were held back by injury and are now in their second preseason and only 170k. Either or neither could make Freo's starting team (Sturt the more likely imo) and even if not high scorers the extra maturity might mean extra games and JS over a 2019 recruit.
 

Sloane4brownlow

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Discounting new DPP's throughout the year because we don't know who gets them yet who would you rate the top 10 now and how far is Andy Bray off that?
In no particular order my top 10 would be:

Lets call them the 90+ crew.

Whitfield, Smith, Dusty, Steven, Walters, Heeney, Ziebell, Tom lynch, Wingard, Dahlhaus.

Brayshaw no chance to beat any of those.

Then thereres your 80-90+ crew in no order would be:
Ebert, Greenwood, Cameron, Ablett, Lambert, Lipinski, DeGoey, Petracca, Gresham, Martin (Carlton), MacPherson.

If be amazed if Brayshaw beat even 25% of those names in 2020.

Brayshaw lands in a big crop of 70-80 avg players for mine. Nothing has suggested he'll set the comp alight this year. He'll improve but only marginally. He feels a little like a red herring that everyone wants to blow smoke up to be honest.

Worpel took 7 games to crack the tonne and showed plenty of signs of being a congested ball magnet. With a combination of Titchells exit he was a unicorn that year.

Brayshaw took 30+ games to crack the tonne and his form and fitness have been patchy at best.

Combined with the fact Freo will be headless chooks in the middle this year without guys like Fyfe, Walters, Blakely and Mundy doing the heavy lifting.

At the equivalent price point Id be backing Acres to beat brayshaw by 5-10pts per game this year. Played out of position last year at St Kila and is proven to atleast be able to average 80. He should deliver that at Freo off a wing.

Just an opinion only of course and I may yet prove to be very incorrect.

He's still a Marsh series watch for certain and those practise matches will ultimately tell the tale. Id need to see back to back convincing tonnes from brayshaw to even give him a glimpse in my side.

Even then I think I'll pass.
 

Rendaw

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Each year there is a player who breaks out in the forward line becoming a top 6 forward.

2019 Worpel
2018 Taranto
2017 Hill

Who will it be this year?

Rozee - More mid time but how much?
Brayshaw - The family name scares me now but should get more mid time
Smith - Plays in a stacked midfield so will he get enough opportunity?
Acres - New club
Lynch - Had a full year after his ACL
Hill - Done it before
 

Gunf

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Each year there is a player who breaks out in the forward line becoming top 6 forward.

2019 Worpel
2018 Taranto
2017 Hill

Who will it be this year?

Rozee - More mid time but how much?
Brayshaw - The family name scares me now but should get more mid time
Smith - Plays in a stacked midfield so will he get enough opportunity?
Acres - New club
Lynch - Had a full year after his ACL
Hill - Done it before
I actually don't see anyone doing a Worps or Taranto this year at best i think we will have a few players who could hold down a spot until we get DPP's or players who have done it before show that they are top 6-10 forwards
 

Zevon

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I’ve got Brayshaw and Greenwood sitting in my forward line currently and admittedly both have me nervous. Can see either/both averaging 90+ but could equally see them averaging 75 and have me looking back saying what on earth was I thinking.
 

JDWCE

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My structure in defence is to fill D1-D3 with those $500-$600k midpricers that I see being potential top 6 players in the position (or at worst top 10 or so). Currently Houston and Docherty are locks so for me that leaves Blakely, Withderden and Clark competing for the D3 spot.

Clark would be a gamble because I’d be relying on him improving into a 90+ player. Good chance of that but plenty of risk involved and the St Kilda setup is a bit of a mystery at the minute. Witherden would need to bounce back from a shocking season last year... Hodge leaving helps but Birchall arriving kind of neutralises that. So again, risk involved. Blakely is the one I am most confident will have the role and average 90+ but the biggest turn off for me at the moment is his durability. A season best of 17 games... yuck. Leads to all sorts of headaches when you’ve got a player like that.

Not really sure which way I’ll go yet.
I like witherden at the moment. Has durability on his side. Coming into his fourth year. Has a very low injury score rolling through his average from last year. Birchall likely to get injured early on anyway. Is high up on my radar but definitely doesn’t play midfield so it’s still an iffy selection and he’s one of the first to go from my team when I reshuffle things
 

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