I'm likely mistaking Whitfields last 2 efforts as tags (43,50), might have been due to ankle issue instead. Either way I'm shorting him for now.
2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity
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- Oct 16, 2015
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To butcher it 22 times during the year?
browncow
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What was the question/answer?
I’ve currently gone pretty risky with NicNat at R2, but have Naismith sitting at R3.
Last 3 average of 86.
Priced at 77.
Natural improvement factor of 1.1 you'd think, so he should come close to 90. (Or 103 in my dreams)
He's in my side, Just don't throw him out after round 1's tough match up with Grundy.
I had Gawn R2, and my forward line was rubbish.
It's still not much better but now I've only got 1 $170k player on the field (M8 Pickett) and cash splashed elsewhere avoiding to many cheap rookies.
Zevon
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Absolutely loved owning him last year, and I 100% agree neither his average nor his mid time are likely to fall this year. Would love to have him again but just can't make room at this stage. Look forward to bringing him in as an upgrade at some point during the season.
Love TT (had him from rnd 1 last yr), but the thing is hes basically fully priced....and now hes in a full strength gws side. i can see, at best, a 5 point improvement, so not much upside yet i can imagine a 5-10 point hit to his average based on player rotations.
Its a long season, so baring injuries, who knows i might have TT in my side at some point ... but i wont be starting
Its a long season, so baring injuries, who knows i might have TT in my side at some point ... but i wont be starting
The more i think on it, the more im leaning to having more mid pricers to start with:
-split playerbase into 4 price segments: rookies, midprice, premo, uber premo
-we get a fixed number of trades per year
-we get a fixed number of trades to use per week.
the natural progression of a cash cow is:
rookie-> mid -> premo -> uber premo (slow burn cow)
rookie -> downgrade/upgrade premo (uber cow eg: sam walsh last year)
i split the cows into 2 because basically your grabing cash via a downgrade/upgrade scenario or you can trade up based on built up vale (ie: equity)
either way your looking at minimum 3-4 trades to get that uber premo.
timewise cows take 6-9 weeks to fatten.
season tactics (excluding injuries and forced trades)
weeks 1-3; fixing mistakes. sideways trading, getting in cows/premos
weeks 3-6: ?
weeks 6-9: cow cash grab. 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 9-12: bye planning, 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 12-14: bye weeks, team restructure if needed. 2-3 cows upgraded
week 15: full team.
so your basically upgrading 6-9 rookies by rnd 15. From experience, id lean towards 7. so thats 2, 3, 2 fwd, mid, back line onfield rookies.
mid pricers start at a higer base price. may take one less trade to reach premo. should fatten quicker (eg 4-7 weeks). should be ready to trade during that week 3-6 empty period
-split playerbase into 4 price segments: rookies, midprice, premo, uber premo
-we get a fixed number of trades per year
-we get a fixed number of trades to use per week.
the natural progression of a cash cow is:
rookie-> mid -> premo -> uber premo (slow burn cow)
rookie -> downgrade/upgrade premo (uber cow eg: sam walsh last year)
i split the cows into 2 because basically your grabing cash via a downgrade/upgrade scenario or you can trade up based on built up vale (ie: equity)
either way your looking at minimum 3-4 trades to get that uber premo.
timewise cows take 6-9 weeks to fatten.
season tactics (excluding injuries and forced trades)
weeks 1-3; fixing mistakes. sideways trading, getting in cows/premos
weeks 3-6: ?
weeks 6-9: cow cash grab. 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 9-12: bye planning, 2-3 cows upgraded
weeks 12-14: bye weeks, team restructure if needed. 2-3 cows upgraded
week 15: full team.
so your basically upgrading 6-9 rookies by rnd 15. From experience, id lean towards 7. so thats 2, 3, 2 fwd, mid, back line onfield rookies.
mid pricers start at a higer base price. may take one less trade to reach premo. should fatten quicker (eg 4-7 weeks). should be ready to trade during that week 3-6 empty period
Question - With no other R3's probablky playing R1 and making $$ important, why is Naismith only 3% owned, when he will probably make $200k by rd12.
Answer - Well he's a bit expensive but yeah, good point!
When Ward is registering 12% ownership I'm not sure of the value of ownership as a measure.
Change in ownership trends would be interesting maybe?
2-2-0-4 for the record
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He's not holding what I think he is holding is he?
If you're thinking neuralyzer...then its bingo! if your thinking something else then maybe its worked!
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4 of the top 7 aggregate scoring mids from last year are under 5% ownership
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no, no, I was thinking a neutraliser
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I'm starting to think I need to look at total points, rather than averages.
Looking at overall ranking, it's all about total points, not average. Injuries are hard to predict, but there are guys (*cough* Josh Kelly *cough*) who just continue to get injured
- Sep 8, 2013
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Yep, all about overall points than average. It’s why I’m not big on guys like Kelly, Coniglio, Fyfe, Rocky etc. whilst all will have good averages, their total points won’t be as big as others as they’ll likely miss games
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Currently only have Cogs from that list. I'm wondering if I should trade for Cripps...but is he any better?
Not including rookies under $270k
Def 2
Mid 2
Ruck 1
Fwd 3
Chayce Jones 6%?
Brodie Smith 3% surprised me.
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Cripps is at least durable. Coniglio might average a bit more, but Cripps will get more points overall imo
Very hard to build a side to plan when you're forced to sideways trade injured premos.
Easy to get beaten by a team of fit 80's & 90's if you have a few injuries.
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Gibbs, Hannebery or Selwood?
TedDougChris
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What about getting poked in The Eye with a pointy stick ?? Can I pick that one ??
All once upon a time fantasy guns but can they go there again?... stepping stones at best for mine.
I'm on Gibbs though and reckon he can channel his ex-carlton brother KSimpson - if he has the half back role and appears to be over the malaise that stifled him last year I reckon he can go big again. I'll will look to slot him into Def in r6 as DPP hopefully. Hanners injury/rest risk = high, Selwood warhorse body starting to desert him - interrupted preparation.
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