Nah I’m not touching him no matter what he does, as the old saying goes.
‘fool me once shame on me, fool me for the 786th time... you are just being a dick and going on the never again list’
Or ya know something like that.
2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity
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‘fool me once shame on me, fool me for the 786th time... you are just being a dick and going on the never again list’
Or ya know something like that.
The main issue with going 4 rookies in your mids as I see it is this - premium midfielders are the most expensive players in the comp. Therefore it costs a lot more to upgrade to one than it does a premium def/fwd. So it's not as easy to upgrade to and you need a lot more cash to make it happen. Mid rookies should score better than forward rookies for sure but defence rookies always seem to be about the mark as well I find. Rookies in general are looking thin this year so it'll be interesting if you can find 4 good solid mid rookies that'll score decently and have good security. Rowell/Pickett clearly stand outs but unsure after that. Anderson should play but I'm not so sure he will score overly well. Sharp could be one to watch playing on a wing. Has potential. Other maybes are Valente, Bytel, Stephens. Hard to know prior to Marsh I supposeYeah obviously alot will change once preseason games start and we get a gauge of roles
Midfielders should score best so is 4 on field really the worst long term solution? Obviously risky in terms of win/loss in leagues. If people have experience with this and know it doesn't work then it really needs to be considered changing. Any theory I roll out won't work when I get 4x R1 injuries anyway
Yeah that's a great point re: upgrading mids from rookies
I feel every year we say the same 'rookies look a little thin'. They always present themselves and we get 3+ good weeks of them before upgrading to trading. I'm not worried about them popping up tbh.
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Was about to ask the same thing yesterday! For me it's such a ballsy move that I don't think I could make but at the same time I really want to pick him. Also not sure how the arrival of CEY into their midfield affects Lyons.
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My line is a 150 in Marsh and he's in. I hope he doesn't get it because I know he will get injured later in the season but I won't be able to resist if he lights up Marsh
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We all like our safe calls, I realise that. And Lyons is risky. But it’s these sorts of calls that can put you right ahead of the pack if they come off. I’ve just been sifting through names around 90-95 averages as that’s generally where the next 110 ubers come from and Lyons certainly fits that profile
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Yeah obviously alot will change once preseason games start and we get a gauge of roles
Midfielders should score best so is 4 on field really the worst long term solution? Obviously risky in terms of win/loss in leagues. If people have experience with this and know it doesn't work then it really needs to be considered changing. Any theory I roll out won't work when I get 4x R1 injuries anyway
4 rooks on field in mid opens up some risks:
- Less premium midfielders in your side and they're the biggest scorers you need to load up on;
- 4x rooks on field in one position is a big risk. You've only got 2 subs to back them up on any given week. If 1 gets injured or dropped suddenly your team is compromised big time. Pickett being one of them does lessen this risk significantly though.
- Oct 16, 2015
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Switch Draper as he's coming off an knee and unlikely to play come the early rounds IIRC
I like the Lycett pick, I just can't work out if he's the midpriced madness between Sauce and ROB which might be either really good or really bad
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I'm not sold on Sharp. He may get games, but he is an outside player, who's TAC cup AF numbers weren't that impressive IIRC.
I'm on the Anderson train, I think he goes 75-80.
Dylan Stephens might be 60-70, again an outside player I think will be his role
Valente / Bytel - Do they play?
There's a couple of others who haven't had much publicity who are looking good for rd1, and I'll be pulling the trigger if named
Sauce won't be involved in the play. 20 hit outs and the odd kick won't equate to much
ROB works so hard and gets involved so he could be a good pick. Lycett I'm thinking without Ryder can touch 95 average & with doubts over Gawns knee early I think he's the safest pick. Ryder can hurt Marshall, Stef is slowing. What's really trustworthy?
Surprised no one questioned or noticed Ceglar, I thought that would get crucified a bit haha
- Oct 16, 2015
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I just thought you had rucked it up and didn't want to point it out
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Not going to flame someone for going unique like that. Seems justifiable if he's the main ruck.
I wouldn't go there personally but each to their own.
The standard teams are all looking really vanilla at the moment. It's refreshing to see some different picks. Gets the old brain juices flowing.
Which rookies played in the firsts team in the Adelaide praccy match?
- Oct 16, 2015
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1sts included: McAsey, McAdam, Jones, Davis, Murphy, Stengle, Himmelberg, Pohholke
2nds included: McHenry, Frampton, Keays, Crocker, Wilson, Butts, Gollant, O'Connor
The Five: Saturday’s full match simulation
The key takeouts and things we learnt from the Crows' match sim session at West Lakes
- Oct 16, 2015
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Jacobs + Cripps
v
ROB + hannebery / Selwood / Gibbs
v
ROB + hannebery / Selwood / Gibbs
I actually disagree on Sauce looking at his previous numbers and the way he plays working in with GWS's game style.
in 2018 he averaged 40 hitouts, 8 kicks, 7 h/b's, 4 marks and 3 tackles a game.
Playing for GWS I think he will still get the marks as he has always been good at finding space and running off his man. GWS would be stupid not to take advantage of that as they have never really had a ruckman with skill before!!
His kicks might go down but I think his H/O's will stay close and so will his tackles.
Also his H/O's have a chance of rising as GWS love stoppages, especially in their fwd 50 as they rank =1st for clearances last year.
- Oct 16, 2015
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what do you think he will average?
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Here's a question that doesn't get asked much, how much do we think two trades are worth?
Here's my side right now, after a bit of tinkering with the news over the past week (bench rooks subject to change):
Now the reason I ask this, is because I keep chopping and changing Whitfield out and in, for Coniglio, Cripps, Treloar, Boak, Curnow etc. What becomes apparent though, is that Whitfield will be a guaranteed Top 6 forward (meaning I'll need him), versus the aforementioned, who are no guarantee to be Top 8 mids. So this means I'll have to waste two trades at some point, to get Whit in. Given last year with all the unprecedented injury, positional change, and selection issues, is say 75K saved and an extra 5-15 points from a mid, worth two trades?
Alongside this, having Whit as a 'link' in the midfield, allows me to have riskier players in Brayshaw, Roberton, Nic Nat, Wingard and Cerra (hell even Sic Dawg) starting. It also means I can use my links to throw Gould off the bench and downgrade Cerra to Starcevich or a 170K def, or Brayshaw down to a Anderson/Stephens/McGuiness type, which then allows me to upgrade someone like Nic Nat to ROB or Gawn if it doesn't work out/Cerra to Lloyd or Laird if both Brayshaw and Cerra don't work out etc.
It's actually been pretty interesting for me experimenting with all of this, as the whole reason we generally leave big players like Lloyd or Whit out, is because we don't think they'll be worth the cash we spend. The question we should be asking though, is whether these players are likely to be a guaranteed Top 6 Defender or Forward. I'm more dubious on Lloyd given all the uncertainty, but pretty confident on Whit, hence my decision to only have one of them right now. I could have both, but then do I risk missing out on the 'breakout' of someone like Cerra?
Food for thought for those (probably a lot of us here haha) that are grappling with these thought processes/decisions.
Let me know how you guys feel about this
Here's my side right now, after a bit of tinkering with the news over the past week (bench rooks subject to change):
Now the reason I ask this, is because I keep chopping and changing Whitfield out and in, for Coniglio, Cripps, Treloar, Boak, Curnow etc. What becomes apparent though, is that Whitfield will be a guaranteed Top 6 forward (meaning I'll need him), versus the aforementioned, who are no guarantee to be Top 8 mids. So this means I'll have to waste two trades at some point, to get Whit in. Given last year with all the unprecedented injury, positional change, and selection issues, is say 75K saved and an extra 5-15 points from a mid, worth two trades?
Alongside this, having Whit as a 'link' in the midfield, allows me to have riskier players in Brayshaw, Roberton, Nic Nat, Wingard and Cerra (hell even Sic Dawg) starting. It also means I can use my links to throw Gould off the bench and downgrade Cerra to Starcevich or a 170K def, or Brayshaw down to a Anderson/Stephens/McGuiness type, which then allows me to upgrade someone like Nic Nat to ROB or Gawn if it doesn't work out/Cerra to Lloyd or Laird if both Brayshaw and Cerra don't work out etc.
It's actually been pretty interesting for me experimenting with all of this, as the whole reason we generally leave big players like Lloyd or Whit out, is because we don't think they'll be worth the cash we spend. The question we should be asking though, is whether these players are likely to be a guaranteed Top 6 Defender or Forward. I'm more dubious on Lloyd given all the uncertainty, but pretty confident on Whit, hence my decision to only have one of them right now. I could have both, but then do I risk missing out on the 'breakout' of someone like Cerra?
Food for thought for those (probably a lot of us here haha) that are grappling with these thought processes/decisions.
Let me know how you guys feel about this
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Hadn't checked percentages until now... 2-4-1-4
Yikes
Last edited:
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I am actually tempted to try a side team with no one above 10% ownership except maybe rookies lolHadn't checked percentages until now... 2-5-1-4
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Good news:
www.afc.com.au
McHenry wasn't relegated to the 2nds afterall. He missed with a collision injury
Pre-season injury update
The latest on Adelaide's injury list ahead of Saturday's Marsh series match
McHenry wasn't relegated to the 2nds afterall. He missed with a collision injury
I see Knight is out for 3-4. Does that open up a spot?Good news:
Pre-season injury update
The latest on Adelaide's injury list ahead of Saturday's Marsh series match
McHenry wasn't relegated to the 2nds afterall. He missed with a collision injury
Zevon
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- #1,198
Here's a question that doesn't get asked much, how much do we think two trades are worth?
Here's my side right now, after a bit of tinkering with the news over the past week (bench rooks subject to change):
View attachment 824934View attachment 824936
Now the reason I ask this, is because I keep chopping and changing Whitfield out and in, for Coniglio, Cripps, Treloar, Boak, Curnow etc. What becomes apparent though, is that Whitfield will be a guaranteed Top 6 forward (meaning I'll need him), versus the aforementioned, who are no guarantee to be Top 8 mids. So this means I'll have to waste two trades at some point, to get Whit in. Given last year with all the unprecedented injury, positional change, and selection issues, is say 75K saved and an extra 5-15 points from a mid, worth two trades?
Alongside this, having Whit as a 'link' in the midfield, allows me to have riskier players in Brayshaw, Roberton, Nic Nat, Wingard and Cerra (hell even Sic Dawg) starting. It also means I can use my links to throw Gould off the bench and downgrade Cerra to Starcevich or a 170K def, or Brayshaw down to a Anderson/Stephens/McGuiness type, which then allows me to upgrade someone like Nic Nat to ROB or Gawn if it doesn't work out/Cerra to Lloyd or Laird if both Brayshaw and Cerra don't work out etc.
It's actually been pretty interesting for me experimenting with all of this, as the whole reason we generally leave big players like Lloyd or Whit out, is because we don't think they'll be worth the cash we spend. The question we should be asking though, is whether these players are likely to be a guaranteed Top 6 Defender or Forward. I'm more dubious on Lloyd given all the uncertainty, but pretty confident on Whit, hence my decision to only have one of them right now. I could have both, but then do I risk missing out on the 'breakout' of someone like Cerra?
Food for thought for those (probably a lot of us here haha) that are grappling with these thought processes/decisions.
Let me know how you guys feel about this
Great post Shadow. I definitely think we need to attach a dollar value to trades. I’m not enough of a numbers man to work out what that value might be (I suspect it would be higher later in the season when we’re all desperately trying to upgrade than earlier in the season when we tend to have a bit less to do and hence a few sideways trades available). In any case I definitely think it’s something that needs to be factored into decision making.
I’m strongly considering fading Whitfield at this stage, but a big turn off is knowing that even if he does drop in value a bit he is still a no brainer to be a top 6 forward that I will need to trade for at some point. There is obvious appeal to simply locking him in from the start and saving the trouble.
somewhere in the 80-90 range.
Mummy has averaged the following for GWS, 92.5, 94.3, 84.8, 84.4 and 65.6.
I would say Sauce is at least as good a tap ruckman as Mummy and better round the ground.
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Exactly my thinking, from both sides. Definitely think it's a good discussion to have/try to work out as it could make these sort of decisions easier if there's some sort of dollar value attached
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