2020 Predictions

[Johnny Dalmas]

I'm thinking middle 6.

The defensive and contested-ball aspects of our game were pretty reasonable and haven't been impacted by list changes.

Our offensive game was diabolical. Hill and Langdon going will hurt here. Injuries have often hurt us here, so Hogan's situation is almost business-as-usual.

The unknown is the tactics we will use. Perhaps we can see some improvement (especially later in the year) -- but there is also a chance that we will see that some of our offensive weaknesses were talent related not tactical.

All-in-all I'm expecting our final position to be pretty similar to last year, but with perhaps more clarity on whether some of our guys actually have long term futures.

 

[Cesoir]

I'm thinking middle 6.

The defensive and contested-ball aspects of our game were pretty reasonable and haven't been impacted by list changes.

Our offensive game was diabolical. Hill and Langdon going will hurt here. Injuries have often hurt us here, so Hogan's situation is almost business-as-usual.

The unknown is the tactics we will use. Perhaps we can see some improvement (especially later in the year) -- but there is also a chance that we will see that some of our offensive weaknesses were talent related not tactical.

All-in-all I'm expecting our final position to be pretty similar to last year, but with perhaps more clarity on whether some of our guys actually have long term futures.

This is the part that concerns me somewhat - Lyon was a master defensive coach and focused very heavily on contested ball. If Justin wants to transition us into a more attacking team, something will be sacrificed. I don't think it's realistic to expect a young developing team to be able to continue to play accountable defensive football and attacking football all at once. This will be a gradual transition, which will probably frustrate supporters from two aspects. Firstly we won't become an attractive attacking side immediately, there are lots of things that have to be trained and ingrained into the players for that to happen. Secondly, while this learning phase is in operation we will make structural blunders which will make us easy to score against and for this reason I think potentially we will perform worse in the win / loss ratio than last year.

However, if we stay the course the long term benefits will hopefully be worth while, certainly for those who place attractive footy above wins.

 

[summerthebat]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?

Languishing, a clear bottom of the table in our cold football tomb as Longmuir & Bell sweat in front of the press huddles spewing out phrases from the same laminated 'hope sheet' like, ' development of Young, Serong & Henry'. Meanwhile Nat Fyfe holds emergency trade talks with his management and Colin Young diverts the state coverage of our failures into a power-play to install Bad Boy Peter Sumich as the new head coach and the re-drafting of Shane Kersten.

This is what I think about most nights, as the ceiling fan, turns infinitely from alpha to omega.

 

[dockerfemme]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?

Languishing, a clear bottom of the table in our cold football tomb as Longmuir & Bell sweat in front of the press huddles spewing out phrases from the same laminated 'hope sheet' like, ' development of Young, Serong & Henry'. Meanwhile Nat Fyfe holds emergency trade talks with his management and Colin Young diverts the state coverage of our failures into a power-play to install Bad Boy Peter Sumich as the new head coach and the re-drafting of Shane Kersten.

This is what I think about most nights, as the ceiling fan, turns infinitely from alpha to omega.

I guess you’re a glass half full type?

 

[Monument Hills]

I guess you’re a glass half full type?

of bourbon

 

[wayToGo_]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?

Languishing, a clear bottom of the table in our cold football tomb as Longmuir & Bell sweat in front of the press huddles spewing out phrases from the same laminated 'hope sheet' like, ' development of Young, Serong & Henry'. Meanwhile Nat Fyfe holds emergency trade talks with his management and Colin Young diverts the state coverage of our failures into a power-play to install Bad Boy Peter Sumich as the new head coach and the re-drafting of Shane Kersten.

This is what I think about most nights, as the ceiling fan, turns infinitely from alpha to omega.

Of course but worse is the nightmare where I wake up drenched in sweat having dreamt I was given a lobotomy and became a West Coast supporter.

 

[Johnny Dalmas]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?
…

Its a good point. He may well be hopeless. Even if he ends up proving to be the next Clarkson, he surely won't hit that level in his first year. He will be developing just Young, Serong and co.

I think though that we have a truly great midfielder, a playing group who can win the contested ball and who are also quite well drilled defensively. When the coach makes some clangers (as he undoubtedly will), I reckon we will be solid enough in those parts of the game.

The great worry is when we do have the ball. Can we actually retain enough possession?

 

[Monument Hills]

Of course but worse is the nightmare where I wake up drenched in sweat having dreamt I was given a lobotomy and became a West Coast supporter.

did they also crispr in the smug gene while they were at it?

 

[Righteo]

Of course but worse is the nightmare where I wake up drenched in sweat having dreamt I was given a lobotomy and became a West Coast supporter.

A nightmare for me and you maybe but I'm pretty sure a lobotomy would actually improve the intelligence of the average WC fan.

 

[wayToGo_]

A nightmare for me and you maybe but I'm pretty sure a lobotomy would actually improve the intelligence of the average WC fan.

True.

And fear not. Nobody is removing our frontal Lobb this season. JLo hasn't played him in the ruck once this pre-season.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Anyone remember Damian Drum? Pretty sure he was incredibly highly rated as a senior coach prospect before he came to Freo. Now he's a National and losing votes to become deputy speaker in parliament.

 

[wayToGo_]

Interesting choice of threads to post that

 

[Square Peg]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?

Languishing, a clear bottom of the table in our cold football tomb as Longmuir & Bell sweat in front of the press huddles spewing out phrases from the same laminated 'hope sheet' like, ' development of Young, Serong & Henry'. Meanwhile Nat Fyfe holds emergency trade talks with his management and Colin Young diverts the state coverage of our failures into a power-play to install Bad Boy Peter Sumich as the new head coach and the re-drafting of Shane Kersten.

This is what I think about most nights, as the ceiling fan, turns infinitely from alpha to omega.

Get help

 

[Joao]

There wasn't really an obvious pattern.
This is another Lyon myth where people's perception becomes their reality. If you look at the actual stats:

In Lyon's 8 seasons, Freo went worst in the second half of the home and away season in four of them (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019).
Total wins for the first 11 games was 54.5% (48wins from 88) vs 50.5% (44wins from 87) for the second half (that includes the two R23, 2013 & 2015 B-Team losses ... without those it is 51.5%).
This myth was already spoken of as absolute truth prior to the 2019 season at which stage, if you allow for the two B-Team losses, Lyon's win percentage was about the same in the first 11 games as the second 11 games of the Home and Away season (42wins from 77 vs 41 from 75).

I'm not so interested in the times where he had mature lists but explicitly during our rebuild phase. Suspect he had us load up early and younger lists couldn't make the distance, especially when we got significant injuries.

18 and 19 it definitely was worse second half. 16 we were dreadful all year. Don't remember 17 but reckon we rolled the tigers in the first half then got done by 100 once our season was over and they were well and truly on their roll.

 

[greatgatsby]

Has anyone considered the possibility of Longmuir being an awful coach and our vulnerable, shallow and inexperienced list becoming dramatically exposed on a weekly basis with spectacular bludgeoning's becoming part of our 2020 football experience?

Languishing, a clear bottom of the table in our cold football tomb as Longmuir & Bell sweat in front of the press huddles spewing out phrases from the same laminated 'hope sheet' like, ' development of Young, Serong & Henry'. Meanwhile Nat Fyfe holds emergency trade talks with his management and Colin Young diverts the state coverage of our failures into a power-play to install Bad Boy Peter Sumich as the new head coach and the re-drafting of Shane Kersten.

This is what I think about most nights, as the ceiling fan, turns infinitely from alpha to omega.

Watch Apocalypse Now and then snap out of it.

 

[Purple_Turtle]

Interesting choice of threads to post that

It's only political if I express an opinion on the Nationals in general.

 

[Bad Brain]

I'm not convinced that pattern isn't a Ross thing. Happened to us so many times while Ross was here and it doesn't seem to happen as often to other teams.

I'm optimistic we will be more consistent all year, even if the highs aren't as high.

I think it’s a pretty consistent trend across most sports when you have a lot of youth. A more AFL specific one is that kids struggle to play well Away

 

[PurpleEyes]

I'm not so interested in the times where he had mature lists but explicitly during our rebuild phase. Suspect he had us load up early and younger lists couldn't make the distance, especially when we got significant injuries.

18 and 19 it definitely was worse second half. 16 we were dreadful all year. Don't remember 17 but reckon we rolled the tigers in the first half then got done by 100 once our season was over and they were well and truly on their roll.

In 2016, we had an aging mature list and we were worse in the first half of the year ... just 1 win in Round 11, then 3 more wins in the 2nd half of the Home & Away. Our rebuild started after 2016.
In 2018, it was 4 wins & 7 losses in both the first half and the second half of the season. We started 2018 with a lack of 50+ club game players (R1 10 of) and finished the season with even less (R23 7 of) due to injuries and a choice to play prospective rebuild players over older retiring/out of form players (eg. D.Pearce, Sutcliffe)

The difference in 2020 is that because we have now had a few years of rebuilding, we will start Round 1 with no more than 7 (50+club game players) playing, but I believe by R23 we will be playing about 12 (+/- 3). Which will be quite different to the recent rebuild years you recall.

Again, this narrative that Lyon used to load up early and players tired towards the end of the season, simply is not supported by the statistics of his coaching career at either SK or Freo. And it is a narrative that ignores the details of the list that was available at those times. I also recall looking at individual stats for distances ran in 2019 in the first half vs 2nd half of the Home & Away seasons ... there was nothing there to support this tiring narrative.

 

[Joao]

I think it’s a pretty consistent trend across most sports when you have a lot of youth. A more AFL specific one is that kids struggle to play well Away

Yeah, to be honest it is mostly anecdotal but just noting teams like Carlton, Brisbane and Dogs coming home strong in recent seasons with similar player ages. We are flat out limping to the line although generally by then half the team is in rehab which probably explains it.

In 2016, we had an aging mature list and we were worse in the first half of the year ... just 1 win in Round 11, then 3 more wins in the 2nd half of the Home & Away. Our rebuild started after 2016.
In 2018, it was 4 wins & 7 losses in both the first half and the second half of the season. We started 2018 with a lack of 50+ club game players (R1 10 of) and finished the season with even less (R23 7 of) due to injuries and a choice to play prospective rebuild players over older retiring/out of form players (eg. D.Pearce, Sutcliffe)

The difference in 2020 is that because we have now had a few years of rebuilding, we will start Round 1 with no more than 7 (50+club game players) playing, but I believe by R23 we will be playing about 12 (+/- 3). Which will be quite different to the recent rebuild years you recall.

Again, this narrative that Lyon used to load up early and players tired towards the end of the season, simply is not supported by the statistics of his coaching career at either SK or Freo. And it is a narrative that ignores the details of the list that was available at those times. I also recall looking at individual stats for distances ran in 2019 in the first half vs 2nd half of the Home & Away seasons ... there was nothing there to support this tiring narrative.

Yeah I don't really count 16 for the reasons you say. We clearly didn't know where we were at.

I also think it doesn't paint an accurate picture to just use wins and losses either. Some of the losses in the back half of 2017 are not the same as almost any of them last year. I do agree that injuries played a massive role, especially last year.

 

[dont bowl there]

There wasn't really an obvious pattern.
This is another Lyon myth where people's perception becomes their reality. If you look at the actual stats:

In Lyon's 8 seasons, Freo went worst in the second half of the home and away season in four of them (2013, 2015, 2017, 2019).
Total wins for the first 11 games was 54.5% (48wins from 88) vs 50.5% (44wins from 87) for the second half (that includes the two R23, 2013 & 2015 B-Team losses ... without those it is 51.5%).
This myth was already spoken of as absolute truth prior to the 2019 season at which stage, if you allow for the two B-Team losses, Lyon's win percentage was about the same in the first 11 games as the second 11 games of the Home and Away season (42wins from 77 vs 41 from 75).

The argument was never the round 11 cut off, you have chosen round 11 as it suits your narrative. The "myth" as you put it was that Ross would load the team up to reach the bye in decent shape but be utterly cooked upon return. I managed to find the below:

 

[Yeti]

The forward line is a huge concern. Career best goals:
Matt Taberner - 18 (Career average of 1.1 GpG)
Rory Lobb - 29 (Career average of 0.9 GpG)
Jesse Hogan - 47 (Career average of 2.0 GpG)
Cam McCarthy - 35 (Career average of 1.4 GpG)
Michael Walters - 46 (Career average of 1.7GpG)

Of this list Hogan is now out indefinitely, McCarthy is possibly a winger and Walters splits his time between the midfield and forward line and is without a doubt our best forward. Matt Taberner hasn't played more than 17 games in a season before due to form and fitness while Lobb appears to be our break glass in case of emergency ruckman.

The fact we are throwing out names like Colyer as a potential forward makes me sick to my stomach, he should never have been signed on a 3 year deal. Stupid list management by the club.

All of this is matched with a very inexperienced midfield and a backline that has been decimated by injuries (Pearce, Hamling and Wilson) I can't understand how bottom 6 isn't everyone's expectation. Carlton have shown how long rebuilds take and even with one of the most ready made draftee's in history (Sam Walsh) playing last year, a slew of high draft picks and one of the best mids in the game they were still only able to finish 16th last year.

A new coach has come in and will be implementing a new game plan to a very inexperienced group of players, it is unlikely to click quickly. Even with a mature list, minimal injuries and a very experienced coach with a history of making finals when Ross Lyon started with us in 2012 the first half of the year was a bloody tough watch! We won 6 of the first 12 and were able to make finals once things clicked.

Can we as a supporter base really expect anything close to that? That was also a year with a very crap Gold Coast (not that that has changed), GWS, Melbourne and Bulldogs.

If we avoid the bottom 6 it will be a surprise to me.

 

[salim malik]

Pointless going or being interested in this season.
Finished before we started after reading opinions on here.
Save money in 2020 and load up for 2021.

 

[Demons09]

Pointless going or being interested in this season.
Finished before we started after reading opinions on here.
Save money in 2020 and load up for 2021.

Yes I’m giving it a complete miss, I’ll start supporting again when the experts like Micky Barlow says we’ll make the eight.

 

[wahooo]

Pointless going or being interested in this season.
Finished before we started after reading opinions on here.
Save money in 2020 and load up for 2021.

I've been one who's had pretty low expectations going into this season. I'd expect to see the club finish bottom 6, would be absolutely blown away if we finished any higher than that.

That doesn't mean I'm not excited about this season. I can't wait to watch debuts and growth from individual players. I can't wait to see this instinctual style of football Jlo refers to. I'm excited, I'll still be as equally interested and invested as I was when we made it to the grand final in 2013, I'm just being realistic.

The team is simply not at a level where top 8 is a realistic expectation. The boys need to focus on the little things, their skills, implementing Jlo's game plan and they probably need to focus quite heavily on their individual performances. Absolutely they should try to win every game but a lofty goal like finals is only going to distract them from the important little milestones they need to tick off along the way.

 

[salim malik]

Yes I’m giving it a complete miss, I’ll start supporting again when the experts like Micky Barlow says we’ll make the eight.

Ah yes Micky and his prophecy. Walls made the same prediction about WC and look how that turned out.
But I,m going to ignore all of the wrong predictions about premiers and wooden spoons re the past seasons and take the advice of the experts both in the media and on here re this season and save my dollars and wait for 2021