Resource 2020 AFL Draft Order

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Brisbane in: #22 (2019) and future 4th (tied to GWS)

Port Adelaide in: #23 (2019) and a future 2nd (tied to Collingwood)

 

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Fremantle receives two third-round picks (currently No.52 and No.55)
Port Adelaide receives a fourth-round pick (currently No.66) and a future second-round selection

I am going to assume this is tied to Fremantle, but Fremantle also had Melbourne's second rounder.

Brisbane receives a second-round pick (currently No.22) and a future fourth-round selection
Port Adelaide receives a second-round pick (currently No.23) and a future second-round selection

Brisbane only have one future 2nd, which was Collingwood's, and Port only had one future 4th, which was GWS's.

Collingwood receives a third-round pick (currently No.43)
Hawthorn receives a future third-round selection (tied to Essendon)

This one is explicitly marked as Essendon's future 3rd, and that is the only one Collingwood had anyway. Probably accurate.

Sydney receives a second-round pick (currently No.25) and a future fourth-round pick
Adelaide receives a second-round pick (currently No.27) and a future third-round selection (tied to Fremantle)

Sydney's only 3rd rounder is Fremantle's, so this must be accurate. Adelaide have both Gold Coast's 4th and their own. For now I will assume it was their own.

Gold Coast receives a second-round pick (currently No.27)
Geelong receives a fifth-round pick (currently No.64) and 2020 assistance package pick (No.11)

Bit hard to stuff this one up.

Essendon receives a second-round pick (currently No.30) and a third-round pick (currently No.50)
North Melbourne receives a second-round pick (currently No.35) and a future second-round selection

Essendon only has one future 2nd, their own.

Brisbane receives a second-round pick (currently No.47), a third-round pick (currently No.59) and a future third-round selection
Sydney receives a second-round pick (currently No.38) and a future third-round selection

Looks like they only have their own picks to trade, unless Sydney did not on-trade Fremantle's earlier in the draft

Collingwood receives a third-round pick (currently No.45) a future second-round selection
Richmond receives a third-round pick (currently No.46) and a future second-round selection

Richmond only have their own 2nd rounder. Collingwood only have St Kilda's, assuming they traded their own earlier in the draft.

Geelong receives a third-round pick (currently No.50)
Essendon receives a third-round pick (currently No.63), a future third-round selection and a future fourth-round selection

Geelong's only third rounder is tied to Gold Coast, and their only fourth rounder was their own.

Greater Western Sydney receives a third-round pick (currently No.51) and a future fourth-round selection
Collingwood receives a future third-round pick

Collingwood have both their own 4th rounder and St Kilda's. GWS have both their own 3rd rounder and North Melbourne's. I'm going to assume they both traded their own picks, for now.

Fremantle receives a fourth-round pick (currently No.61)
Brisbane receives a future fifth-round selection

Fremantle only have their own 5th rounder so that's the one they must have traded.

West Coast receives a fourth-round pick (currently No.58)
Essendon receives a future fourth-round selection

West Coast only have their own 4th rounder so that's the one they must have traded.

Western Bulldogs receive a fourth-round pick (currently No.62)
Hawthorn receives a future fourth-round selection

Western Bulldogs only have one 4th rounder, which is their own. This is the one they must have traded.


The above is taken from the AFL's trade tracker, with my notes in bold. Their draft order page has not yet been updated to reflect these trades so there is nothing else from them to cross-reference against.

Some of the assumptions made above will turn out to be incorrect which will have a domino effect on the way to interpret the trades that come after it.

You should at least have the right number of picks in the right rounds, but they could be tied to the wrong clubs.

Some club websites, twitter accounts, etc. may have more detail that will clarify this in time. If you happen to have any such information from a verified source, I'd be grateful for you to send it through. We can work together to make it as accurate as possible.

Based on the above assumptions, this is what I have at the moment:

 

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The AFL have updated their information: https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-12...rrack-against-in-2020-your-clubs-future-picks

Everything I had was correct bar one: Collingwood has North Melbourne's third round pick, while GWS retained their own.

The rest of what I had is the same as what the AFL have got in that article.

Gotta be some kind of miracle that what I had wasn't more inaccurate than that.

 

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Round 2, 2020:

 

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Round 3, 2020

 

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Round 4, 2020

 

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Round 5:

 

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Round 6, 2020:

 

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Round 7, 2020:

 

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Round 8:

 

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Round 9:

 

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Round 10:

 

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Oops, condensed fixture starting to get the better of me.

Round 11:

 

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Round 12:

 

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Round 13, 2020:

 

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Round 14:

 

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Round 15:

 

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Round 16:


First time everyone has played the same number of games since the end of round 2.

 

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Round 17:

 

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Round 18:



So this is taking into account Fremantle's deficit, which has been applied according to Twomey's tweet (thanks to giantroo for posting it in the deficit thread):



There are also deficits for Port Adelaide and GWS that haven't been applied yet, but will presumably be applied to their second rounders once they bomb out of finals (or win the thing )

 

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I have cross-checked my draft order against the AFL's provisional draft order that was published today. Everything matches, which means we got all the live trade stuff right last year.

Fremantle's first rounder dropped to pick 10 with the deficit applied, as already noted above.

The order also confirms that GWS and Port Adelaide's OWN second round picks will move back with the deficits mentioned earlier in the thread, not the first pick that they happen to have in the order that they may have traded in last year (Port have two other second rounders from other clubs before their own).

There is still an unanswered hypothetical question about what happens if they do not have the pick tied to their own finishing position. I have no idea, and don't think we will find out until it happens and the AFL decides what should be done about it.

Deficits are officially applied only once the season is done, before the trade period, but I have applied the deficit to Fremantle (above) and GWS's picks (now) since their ladder positions are finalised and we have clarity on how it is supposed to work.

This means that the only deficit not yet applied to my draft order is Port's, which I will apply to their second round pick once their ladder position is also finalised. If they win the grand final and therefore finish first on the ladder, where they sit currently, pick 36 will slide back to 42. If they bomb out of finals earlier, then the pick will not slide as far because it starts out being worth more points in the first place.

Indicative draft order: Your club's picks as they stand

Check out your club's draft picks for 2020

www.afl.com.au

Please let me know if I've stuffed anything up lol. I'm pretty sure it's right but it is late, and I'm tired.

 

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Finals Week 1:



Dogs finish 8th, West Coast 7th. Picks attached to the finishing positions of those clubs are now settled.

 

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After Semi-Finals:

 

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Prelim Finals:

 

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Since Port's ladder position is now finalised, I can try and apply the deficit to their second round pick.

Port's deficit is 115.9 points, which comes off the second round pick tied to their own ladder position with a resulting value of 426.1 points.

According to my calculations, this should fall back in the order to just after Brisbane's pick, which was originally pick 40 before any deficits were applied, and worth 429 points.

GWS's pick after deficit also falls into the same gap, with a total of 422.8 points.

I think given the discrepancy in total points after the deficit has been applied, Port's pick would slot in ahead of GWS's, but it's also possible that they ought to be in reverse ladder order when this happens, in which case GWS's pick should be ahead of Port's.

Until the AFL republishes the indicative draft order we won't know for sure either way, given that they don't publish a handbook on how these things work, so until then this is the theory I'm basing it on.